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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #378,641
  • May 21, 2014 2:28pm May 21, 2014 2:28pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Looks like AU is now going the other way... Well lets look again tomorrow and see how it all works out
It has support under it but I agree. I wouldn't touch it until tomorrow. I agree with squawk too about watching it though Sydney for a spell. Not like the last 4H rejection at this level.

This one comes down to which is weaker. The $ or AUD me thinks. Tough call. But you know me and the dollar....
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #378,642
  • May 21, 2014 2:31pm May 21, 2014 2:31pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Don't worry I was out of that trade when it ran 20 past the high and didn't pull back in. I have my rules to keep me out of a snowballing trade situation. However like you I was sure it was going to setup and run in my favour.
After posting my very sad results yesterday morning in my journal I went back and looked at my charts. I found where I went wrong and it was on the first position too. I completely misread my SR and well, the rest is history. My buddy Davit came in and showed me on his charts why it was wrong too. I just blew it, pure and simple.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #378,643
  • May 21, 2014 2:38pm May 21, 2014 2:38pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} After posting my very sad results yesterday morning in my journal I went back and looked at my charts. I found where I went wrong and it was on the first position too. I completely misread my SR and well, the rest is history. My buddy Davit came in and showed me on his charts why it was wrong too. I just blew it, pure and simple.
Whats the saying? the person who creates the problem is not the best person to solve it. We look at something the same way over and over it's takes a second set of eyes to spot the problem.
  • #378,644
  • May 21, 2014 2:42pm May 21, 2014 2:42pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Whats the saying? the person who creates the problem is not the best person to solve it. We look at something the same way over and over it's takes a second set of eyes to spot the problem.
I have a little saying I came up with in my custom woodworking business I'd tell the crew. I live by it.

"It's not the severity of the mistake but the quality of the recovery that matters".
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #378,645
  • May 21, 2014 2:48pm May 21, 2014 2:48pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Signal seems valid GU {image} DX {image} maybe the algo's are asleep
So paper trade TP 1.69

dunno... still don't think trading major events is that safe...
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  • #378,646
  • May 21, 2014 2:49pm May 21, 2014 2:49pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Don't like to post results but don't feel to bad I did make 600 pips on 2 orders over the proceeding 5 days on this pair, but I don't like giving back.
Very nice!

I can understand that (you not wanting to post results). I'm learning and my journal is just that. An accurate record of that journey. I'm not here to impress anyone and I'm not embarrassed about learning so every trade, win loose or draw goes in there. On weekends I go over them and figure out what went wrong, right or could have even been better.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #378,647
  • May 21, 2014 2:51pm May 21, 2014 2:51pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} I have a little saying I came up with in my custom woodworking business I'd tell the crew. I live by it. "It's not the severity of the mistake but the quality of the recovery that matters".
I like it
  • #378,648
  • May 21, 2014 2:54pm May 21, 2014 2:54pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} So paper trade TP 1.69 dunno... still don't think trading major events is that safe... {image}
I used to avoid doing so like the plague. Still don't like it but I swear it seems like the only time the market moves anymore. GU is not out of the woods here for a clear run north. But it's looking better at least.

All I know is 6 hours ago I felt like this.....

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Now I almost feel like this.....

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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #378,649
  • May 21, 2014 2:54pm May 21, 2014 2:54pm
Quoting Kajos2250
{quote} GU H4 GMT+3 It is moving to my favour To strength the longs buy stop placed .6903 a little bit above the previous monthly high, invalidation remain! Good luck! {image}
Buy stop triggered...
SL .6821, some longs will be closed if price could close under ~6860...
Anything is math!
  • #378,650
  • May 21, 2014 2:58pm May 21, 2014 2:58pm
Quoting JimmyC
balls of steel brains of cottonwool... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...september.html
That's not a bad bet.... It's a volatile index and exhibits an asymmetric relationship with the price levels of the S&P500, in that the VIX spikes, often disproportionately, when equities wobble. It is not a huge bet (the premium is the only cost of this trade) for a fund of this size and may well be part of a strategy to hedge against an overall long position on equities.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^VIX&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=^GSPC
  • #378,651
  • May 21, 2014 3:04pm May 21, 2014 3:04pm
Quoting gammase1
{quote} That's not a bad bet.... It's a volatile index and exhibits an asymmetric relationship with the price levels of the S&P500, in that the VIX spikes, often disproportionately, when equities wobble. It is not a huge bet (the premium is the only cost of this trade) for a fund of this size and may well be part of a strategy to hedge against an overall long position on equities. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^VIX&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=^GSPC
You never cease to amaze me with your knowledge Paul. And nice to see you again. Wow! Twice in two weeks.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #378,652
  • May 21, 2014 3:06pm May 21, 2014 3:06pm
Gidday GBP/US

Well back up in the clouds again

still sitting in my longs to 170+

Would be nice to load up a bit more

Left it a bit late

could take a dive
  • #378,653
  • May 21, 2014 3:06pm May 21, 2014 3:06pm
Quoting Kajos2250
{quote} Buy stop triggered... SL .6821, some longs will be closed if price could close under ~6860...
I must not keep out from this
Buy limit .6882, buy stop .6917.
Invalidation if price coulkd close under ~6850.

Good luck!
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Anything is math!
  • #378,654
  • May 21, 2014 3:11pm May 21, 2014 3:11pm
Quoting gammase1
{quote} That's not a bad bet.... It's a volatile index and exhibits an asymmetric relationship with the price levels of the S&P500, in that the VIX spikes, often disproportionately, when equities wobble. It is not a huge bet (the premium is the only cost of this trade) for a fund of this size and may well be part of a strategy to hedge against an overall long position on equities. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^VIX&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=^GSPC
Its a pretty big bet
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  • #378,655
  • May 21, 2014 3:15pm May 21, 2014 3:15pm
bbl

enjoy the rest of the session

  • #378,656
  • May 21, 2014 3:17pm May 21, 2014 3:17pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} I have a little saying I came up with in my custom woodworking business I'd tell the crew. I live by it. "It's not the severity of the mistake but the quality of the recovery that matters".
Like that one and a lot better than mine. and so true.
  • #378,657
  • May 21, 2014 3:17pm May 21, 2014 3:17pm
Quoting JimmyC
bbl enjoy the rest of the session
See you later Jimmy.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #378,658
  • May 21, 2014 3:19pm May 21, 2014 3:19pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Like that one and a lot better than mine. and so true.
Thanks squawk. I have a bunch of them.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #378,659
  • May 21, 2014 3:25pm May 21, 2014 3:25pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Its a pretty big bet {image}
On it's own, as a pure punt on volatility, then it's reasonable size, yes. But for a billion dollar hedge fund, as the article implies, it's not huge. The only outlay, the upfront premium of $13m, would only be 1.3% of a billion dollar fund's assets under management. Not huge in that context. Moreover, this punt may well not be a pure speculative play, but instead actually be part of a broader strategy to hedge long equities exposure - who knows.

For the VIX to hit the lower strike is not inconceivable, should equities wobble between now and expiry. Additionally, it wouldn't take much of an increase in the VIX in the early part of this trade (before theta starts to erode the value of the options, particularly the lower strike, which is closer to the ATM strike) for the fund to be able to close out this structure with a profit
  • #378,660
  • May 21, 2014 3:40pm May 21, 2014 3:40pm
Quoting gammase1
{quote} On it's own, as a pure punt on volatility, then it's reasonable size, yes. But for a billion dollar hedge fund, as the article implies, it's not huge. The only outlay, the upfront premium of $13m, would only be 1.3% of a billion dollar fund's assets under management. Not huge in that context. Moreover, this punt may well not be a pure speculative play, but instead actually be part of a broader strategy to hedge long equities exposure - who knows. For the VIX to hit the lower strike is not inconceivable, should equities wobble between now...
Fair enough, I would have moved it to October though
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