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EURUSD

  • #898,841
  • May 18, 2014 4:37am May 18, 2014 4:37am
already break daily trendline....
  • #898,842
  • May 18, 2014 5:23am May 18, 2014 5:23am
i'm looking an opportunity to long next week....if 1.36xx HOLD.
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  • #898,843
  • May 18, 2014 6:16am May 18, 2014 6:16am
Euro-bears got their first loss thursday, next round will be the inflation readings:

I am going for a unlikely scenario but not so unlikely in my opinion, a ECB credibility issue, which is the worst possible outcome for the ECB.

The fact that euro has been ignoring ECB members retracements from the initial Draghi statement and Bundesbank clarifications tells me that position is still long or at least not overly short. Still I believe there has been a substantial covering from long-term longs, forced solo by the size of the move.
The size and speed of the move also tells me there were longs caught off-guard for a 1.40 break, and eager money to short as the cracks appeared.
Interesting to note is the reluctancy to sell EURUSD while it’s trending higher and only events like this are needed to create any serious selling pressure, which can't be sustained on current ECB behavior.
With all the selling and EURUSD still trading at 1.37 is very euro positive.

Adding to this there is a new dynamic playing out in the bonds, where bears are capitulating and flight-to-safety from more risky investments to haven yield-safe assets are taking place, this could create a contagion effect for Euro-area as markets reassess risk, which would provide the bears what they need to drive EURUSD lower.
Although if EURUSD stays lower it will mean there are less reasons for ECB to act on the next meeting which creates a very bad envoirment for any established long-term shorts.

I'm convinced positioning will need to wind-down further to a more neutral ground (which will take one more week or two) for a reversal to take place in which we will go higher than the initial 1.40 as ECB credibility will be questioned by the market.

Short-term risks for this view is that next inflation readings are indeed a disaster and ECB acts hard. If it happens then it will create a buying opportunity as these measures will ultimately be growth-friendly and risk-suppressing.

BoJ and July and EURUSD:
BoJ is data dependent to decide on easing policies. At June it will have May and partial June data which also can get a clear VAT-hike impact on the private consumption (which accounts for ~60% of GDP).
If BoJ is not happy with the recovery it could very well start a new round of easing measures and re-establishment of 'central-bank'-trades.
This will be positive for EURJPY which will create flows back to a higher EURUSD specially after a disappointment on the ECB part.

TL;DR version: Trend is still intact. EURUSD is and will resist further downside from this point on.
  • #898,844
  • May 18, 2014 6:19am May 18, 2014 6:19am
Quoting JohnIsShort
Interesting to note is the reluctancy to sell EURUSD while it’s trending higher and only events like this are needed to create any serious selling pressure, which can't be sustained on current ECB behavior. With all the selling and EURUSD still trading at 1.37 is very euro positive.
You wrote this?!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #898,845
  • May 18, 2014 6:33am May 18, 2014 6:33am
Quoting amikaking
So the current week has ended and I have the required OHLC value to calculate the new Weekly Pivot Points for next trading week. R1 stands for Resistance, and this is where sellers will meet up and set sell limits here. Price is clearly below Monthly PIVOT so it is reasonable to take short position only. The bullish hammer that formed on Thursday should easily break up the new Weekly PIVOT therefore my idea is to sell @ 1.3762 (Weekly R1) and put my protective SL slightly above 1.3814 (Monthly PIVOT), with double technical resistance layers to block...
My advise, skip that trade, safe your 50 pips
(It's not an advise, use your own head..)
  • #898,846
  • May 18, 2014 6:33am May 18, 2014 6:33am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} You wrote this?!
I did.
  • #898,847
  • May 18, 2014 6:37am May 18, 2014 6:37am
This weekend break allows time for even more traders to notice that long needle on the daily chart.

Its pretty obvious
  • #898,848
  • May 18, 2014 6:40am May 18, 2014 6:40am
Quoting JohnIsShort
{quote} I did.
Very interesting, it caught me eye while reading
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #898,849
  • May 18, 2014 6:56am May 18, 2014 6:56am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Very interesting, it caught me eye while reading
Thanks dude, its not likely to have a full-blown credibility issues, but ECB went out of his way this time and set the bar high, It won't be able to deliver in any meaningful way.
A avoidance of credibility questions by the market will feel like a victory to Dragui, if not low inflation will be the least of his concerns.
  • #898,850
  • May 18, 2014 7:11am May 18, 2014 7:11am
Quoting JohnIsShort
{quote}its not likely to have a full-blown credibility issues,
The credibility of the ECB is not judged by a group of journalists ... blackmailing doesn't really work with these people!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #898,851
  • May 18, 2014 7:25am May 18, 2014 7:25am
What i have expressed during the week, i had written:

EURUSD, The Bears Party Coming to An End Below $1.37
http://orcaforex.com/eurusd-bears-pa...ming-end-1-37/
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #898,852
  • May 18, 2014 7:33am May 18, 2014 7:33am
Made a terrible mistake on thursday, opened up my live instead of the demo i intended and put sells in at ~1.366 and it got away from me before i noticed, still expecting it to return to slightly below this level but wondering what others views would be? the losses would be quite a hit and too much of an uphike will cause margin close
  • #898,853
  • Edited 8:14am May 18, 2014 8:02am | Edited 8:14am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} I say we retrace back to around 1.38 some time this week
dont know myself. if it did, give or take 1 to a thousand pips. it should look like this.. in the 3832 attempt.. i will be looking to s in that upper pink box. after i close longs. it has some big time r to get above in the 374/5x and now 377x area in the boxes on the chart, so it may need to come back to 3689 box again after breaking last weeks high.. after reaching 3832, and it is wickish with a quick drop. my guess would be 3561, to set up 33xx.. or not

what it does or does not do is not a concern of mine until i enter..and that would not be until it has a retrace on whatever direction. a possible small bull setup can yield the bears need to retrace back to 3832 or more. its free to wait.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #898,854
  • May 18, 2014 8:07am May 18, 2014 8:07am
The EURUSD pair broke the support line @ 13740 that started to in late August 2013 and closed well below that for the week @ 13690. Everyone is screaming longs @ 13650 and below........like they were doing from 13820 and 13750......and we kept on going lower......Considering risk to reward it looks more safe to me to short on pullback than going long.....I see we still have those who are emotionally stuck at the 140's and upwards......Till I see a break of the huge 14000 I will short the shit out of this pair.....
  • #898,855
  • May 18, 2014 8:09am May 18, 2014 8:09am
Quoting Vachus
What i have expressed during the week, i had written: EURUSD, The Bears Party Coming to An End Below $1.37 http://orcaforex.com/eurusd-bears-pa...ming-end-1-37/
I don't know... There is a very strong resistance at 1.3730.


The main trend is down, only if 1.3650 holds than it can go up...

It looks like a accumulation/Manipolation area for the market maker (aka liquity provider) to accumulate more sell order to bring the price lower.

It could easily be stuck in the range 1.3650 / 1.3730 to allow the market maker to accumulate more sell order...

We need to wait for confirmation.
Buy at the Low, Sell at the High You make money by waiting not by trading.
  • #898,856
  • May 18, 2014 8:14am May 18, 2014 8:14am
Quoting pytaz
{quote} U know i am risking just 40 pips, but i know i gonna get almost 400 from it. Its RR: 1:10, isn't it worth it?
Quoting aarontdang
{quote} Now that's just plain stupid ..... Buy @ 1.3690 .... Lowest on EU yesterday was 1.3647 .... that's more than 40 pips risk .... you're talking getting to 1.4090 to get your 400 pips reward .. That's just trash talk .... Unless you can prove you at least hold 200 pips profit
Well said aarontdang, that is simply a trash talk for the unrealistic 1:10 RR and price action has proved that his 40 pips SL already been busted.

We should see that the uptrend in E/U is going to be broken soon by next week.

Quoting pytaz
{quote} My advise, skip that trade, safe your 50 pips
Oh well, then I would just sell by the time price reach 1.3814 - 1.3830 cluster area and risk my 50 pips as a seller here. =)

Thanks for the advise and I have updated my analysis for sell orders tomorrow.
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  • #898,857
  • May 18, 2014 8:33am May 18, 2014 8:33am
Quoting Binks
The EURUSD pair broke the support line @ 13740 that started to in late August 2013 and closed well below that for the week @ 13690. Everyone is screaming longs @ 13650 and below........like they were doing from 13820 and 13750......and we kept on going lower......Considering risk to reward it looks more safe to me to short on pullback than going long.....I see we still have those who are emotionally stuck at the 140's and upwards......Till I see a break of the huge 14000 I will short the shit out of this pair.....
Same here. It is safer and wiser to short on pullback considering the R:R factor.

Trading with the current bearish price action (broken middle bollinger bands on D1, confluence of pivot levels, bearish engulfing weekly candle) along with Draghi's expectation to restrict euro from crossing 1.40, you have every reason you need to short the E/U.
  • #898,858
  • May 18, 2014 8:33am May 18, 2014 8:33am
All the people that are buying now have been manipulated...

Clearly to bring the price down, you need to accumulate and manipulate the market.

To achiave that the retail traders when they buy, they are providing the market maker with liquidity to accumulate more.

To achieve that the market makers keep the price stuck in a range area, in this range the price goes down and up but it is always stuck in a specific area.

In this way the market maker can manipulate the market without been seen...

Unfortunately there are no know methods to see what the market maker are accumulating....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Buy at the Low, Sell at the High You make money by waiting not by trading.
  • #898,859
  • May 18, 2014 8:43am May 18, 2014 8:43am
Quoting Lacunoide
All the people that are buying now have been manipulated... Clearly to bring the price down, you need to accumulate and manipulate the market. To achiave that the retail traders when they buy, they are providing the market maker with liquidity to accumulate more. To achieve that the market makers keep the price stuck in a range area, in this range the price goes down and up but it is always stuck in a specific area. In this way the market maker can manipulate the market without been seen... Unfortunately there are no know method to see what the...
that may be true, but do you have a backup plan, just in case simon dont pick you to go to l.a.?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #898,860
  • May 18, 2014 8:45am May 18, 2014 8:45am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} that may be true, but do you have a backup plan, just in case simon dont pick you to go to l.a.?
Hedging?

I am buying and selling at the same time...

Well, not exactly at the same time...

I have buy positions every 50 pips, very small, that rise every 50 pips with bigger size.....

Then i am also shorting...

The hedging is made manually, while the rest is managed by an EA..... It is impossibile to do it by a human :-D
Buy at the Low, Sell at the High You make money by waiting not by trading.
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