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  • #898,821
  • May 17, 2014 1:44pm May 17, 2014 1:44pm
Also, if we are in a topping formation (it's certainly not impossible), take a look at the behaviour of the market during the other tops... We most likely need one more test of the upside before going down (on weekly). Maybe I am flat out wrong and we'll just go down, but the consolidations tend to take a little longer and have three legs where the upside is tested. My timing tools say there is limited time for upside market (1, 2 months at most before true correction or reversal should start.)

Whatever happens, it won't be a dull market next week.
  • #898,822
  • May 17, 2014 1:46pm May 17, 2014 1:46pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} {quote} In any case, just an update: All things equal, the Bears party has two days left- three by a stretch. Limit to the downside, should be $1.364 - $1.373 then IT IS OVER.
I do not seem to see you talk about cross market when you talk about euro. All markets are interconnected. How money flow between stock market, bond market, is going to affect FX market. Also money flow between different pairs, different currencies, is going to affect other pair and other currency.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #898,823
  • May 17, 2014 1:56pm May 17, 2014 1:56pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} No disrespect Vachus You were calling 142 143 145 etc. At what point would you accept that trend including sentiment is changed. Personally I like you be to be correct because I am going to sell the crap out of EU from higher rallies although I am skeptical of it.. With EZ elections on the corner we could see 1.35 by next ECB meeting in june
Well, i did call for $1.42 - before, based on $1.40 cracking and forcing others to liquidate - if you remember, i called it A " Margin call orgy". My bullish view started as low as $1.37 - early February 2014, when i saw the selling trend is softening ... back then i saw just a stop lose hunt into the $1.39 than back to $1.35 for a range. However, later on April 2014 i expressed my view - that price inching near $1.40 things could turn wildly!

Quoting Vachus
Wait for price to reach $1.379, buy with a stop just under $1.377 ... leave the trade and go to sleep two weeks. If the stop lose survives, collect at 1.42! (I'm in my generous mode today) Good luck
To answer your question:

Trends do not end this way, price doesn't start running for no reason - just because X or Y or Z is expecting something. To sell a bottom, you need to have a convection rising to the level of belief that something detrimental is about to happen ... so, i cannot say a number - because by the time price reach there, maybe the picture will change again.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #898,824
  • May 17, 2014 2:00pm May 17, 2014 2:00pm
[quote=Kanzler;7475558 Yes my apologies, I was talking to you. I think that must be the case. The charts I have show quite a few areas that price could stop and reverse at, but the most obvious one to me would be violated below your max. I suppose there's the potential for some fakeouts...will have to take a closer look at this.[/quote]

Agreed
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #898,825
  • May 17, 2014 2:01pm May 17, 2014 2:01pm
Quoting DasPips
{quote} I'm in the bull camp for a little while longer and we have Meeting Minutes wednesday. I'm anticipating a turn, or if I'm wrong, at least correction will happen then. we'll see.
It should be a non- event, but the Dollar camp may find a new sentence of two, to continue the mass delusion .. the meeting statement was already released prior month!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #898,826
  • May 17, 2014 2:02pm May 17, 2014 2:02pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Chicky I disagree Its really simple.Professional trader does trading for living.If can't do that and does something else as main income then he/she is not a professional trader. It has nothing to do with risk management and everything to do with equity size that can generate sustainable income to live on. 1.200 account is hobbyist account there is no if or buts.
I too disagree. $1.200 Million account is good enough.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #898,827
  • May 17, 2014 2:07pm May 17, 2014 2:07pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote}All markets are interconnected. How money flow between stock market, bond market, is going to affect FX market.

FX is a leading market, not a legging one. Stock markets or even bonds, are begging the Euro / Dollar index, and their retrospect fundamentals ... So, correlations or potential risks will be factored in the FX market before anyone can blink an eye.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #898,828
  • May 17, 2014 2:09pm May 17, 2014 2:09pm
Multi time frame analysis
EU / DXY

EU Weekly
Overall PA remains within the 1.4 strike area as an unmet target 1.3650 shows support
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Weekly.png Size: 18 KB


EU Daily
The DTL break shows rejection and retest, this in confluence with the 200sma as PA remains above the TL and sma the uptrend appears for now intact
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Daily.png Size: 31 KB


EU 4H
The rejection of the TL while strong has been met with light selling bias after
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 4H.png Size: 20 KB


EU 1H
Intraday either a reversal north through 1.373 to go off and tests the high's at a later stage or final failure and break south 1.365 (the pattern is reminiscent of an inv H&S)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 1H.png Size: 21 KB


$DXY charts

Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DX Daily.png Size: 22 KB


4H
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DX 4H.png Size: 18 KB


1H
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DX 1H.png Size: 19 KB


Notable questions around whether Mario is going to drop rates or really initiate negative deposit rates.

  1. Fed will end QE
  2. ECB may have to start...

  • #898,829
  • May 17, 2014 2:16pm May 17, 2014 2:16pm
Foreigners Sell A Record Amount Of Treasurys Held By The Fed In Past Week
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/14/2014 10:51 -0400

notes:
Foreign holdings of US government securities held at the Fed dropped by a whopping $104.5bn in the week to Wednesday 12 March according to the data published overnight (see chart below). This marks the biggest single weekly fall on record and compares with just a $13.5bn drop the previous week.

reduced appetite for USTs and strong demand for EUR debt and equity securities underlines the difficulties the ECB is encountering to stop the strong EUR from reducing inflation expectations in the euro area.

source:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...asurys-held-fe
  • #898,830
  • May 17, 2014 2:43pm May 17, 2014 2:43pm
Quoting State
Foreigners Sell A Record Amount Of Treasurys Held By The Fed In Past Week Tyler Durden's picture Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/14/2014 10:51 -0400 notes: Foreign holdings of US government securities held at the Fed dropped by a whopping $104.5bn in the week to Wednesday 12 March according to the data published overnight (see chart below). This marks the biggest single weekly fall on record and compares with just a $13.5bn drop the previous week. reduced appetite for USTs and strong demand for EUR debt and equity securities underlines...
I thought now is May 17.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #898,831
  • May 17, 2014 3:46pm May 17, 2014 3:46pm
Congrats to Atlético Madrid winning the La Liga title. It's nice to see another club win for a change.
  • #898,832
  • May 17, 2014 5:11pm May 17, 2014 5:11pm
Quoting pedro319
AUDUSD Why did price drop 200 pips? Some people would say it was the fundamentals.. I would just say it was .707 Retracement (last swing) on weekly chart + Monthly pivot Resistance 1 + Yearly central pivot!! Price should keep going down for a few weeks and I don't expect it to take out previous lows but will have to see about that. I will be using all retracements on 4 hours or even daily (at precise Fibonacci levels + weekly Pivots) to sell. I will post them whenever possible. {image}
AUDUSD Sell
This might be it.
Price retraced .786 up on Daily after .707 Ret on weekly, also it's coming off MR1. I expect continuation down before turning up again on Weekly chart.
There is also negative Divergence on Daily chart plus a little ABCD on Hourly that can be traded.
GL
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 123 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 105 KB
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #898,833
  • May 17, 2014 5:37pm May 17, 2014 5:37pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} My plan for the weekly setup to long E/A, waiting for A/U to hit R around .95 or somewhere around that - confusing part is E/U. Shorted E/A when A/U hit .920x @ 1.502x down to 1.4619x - thanks to Draghi otherwise it's going nowhere as A/U been in a tight range 150 pips. But nailed E/U from the top to the pip 1.39933 (on my feed high was 1.39934, spread 0.1 pip) down to 1.3850x didn't take it down to current level. Have 1.36451 on smaller TF as possible reversal but missed by few ticks + equities risk-off = confusing direction. 1428802
i caught is 398x.. closed on th 3832 touch.. the same 3832 i expect in the future. i expected 3885 again but that never developed
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #898,834
  • May 17, 2014 9:17pm May 17, 2014 9:17pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} I thought now is May 17.
Found it in some research.

As explained in the article:

"As for the timing:
... the Wednesday-to-Wednesday decline was much larger than the weekly average decline in Treasury holdings of $46.6 billion. That implies that the plunge in Treasuries occurred later in week rather than earlier."
  • #898,835
  • May 17, 2014 10:02pm May 17, 2014 10:02pm
Taking Europe's pulse— an interactive overview of European GDP, debt and jobs
http://econ.st/1jUSSAf
  • #898,836
  • May 17, 2014 10:31pm May 17, 2014 10:31pm
wait for gap for EURUSD.... it will be long?
  • #898,837
  • May 17, 2014 11:46pm May 17, 2014 11:46pm
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} Hi Gator, I've got 6376 (with 6939/5813). Transposed number, or do I have the wrong measurement/idea? Valuable info with about how you played the mid instead of target. My understanding is that a target hit is more or less only the end of one story where you look how it reacts there, while the mid can be played quite straightforward. Right?
most times on any move, it will retrace 50%.... now the question is when it gets there, is it a retrace, or has the trend changed. we never know when a bottom or top will form. but we can take an educated guess on where it may happen from a previous move. and from those, anticipate the move going back 50% from where it came from last on a tf your using... if we move 100 pips in a direction,, most times it will go back 50.. not always.. fib guys use 23x and 38x too.. i personally want 50% or more, to increase my odds if it is just a retrace. the further from that new h/l w/o breaking the last/ s/r.. so from 50/100% i look to enter in the direction of that particular trend... other tricks in the basket too.. if one is successful with indis, if they add this for entry they will do better with smaller loses and larger winners
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #898,838
  • Edited 1:02am May 18, 2014 12:51am | Edited 1:02am
With higher highs and higher lows, we are still in an uptrend.
(EDIT: ON WEEKLY TF)



Watching the daily 200ema-sma confluence with weekly segment and monthly support below.
A break of the lower main TL could spell carnage, but watching for a bounce from 1.36 area for trend resumption
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdweekly.png Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusddaily.png Size: 37 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdmonthly.png Size: 34 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #898,839
  • May 18, 2014 2:18am May 18, 2014 2:18am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} most times on any move, it will retrace 50%.... now the question is when it gets there, is it a retrace, or has the trend changed. we never know when a bottom or top will form. but we can take an educated guess on where it may happen from a previous move. and from those, anticipate the move going back 50% from where it came from last on a tf your using... if we move 100 pips in a direction,, most times it will go back 50.. not always.. fib guys use 23x and 38x too.. i personally want 50% or more, to increase my odds if it is just a retrace....
I say we retrace back to around 1.38 some time this week
  • #898,840
  • May 18, 2014 4:36am May 18, 2014 4:36am
Quoting rbetancor
{quote} For me .. this week target on EU it around 1.3972-1.4043 ... no matter if Draghi, Yellen or Santa Claus claims the world end ... NEWS doesn't matter to a technical trader, ... you do you maths ... you have your entries, exits and SL ... just that.
now what you think????????????????
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