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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #378,001
  • May 16, 2014 1:33pm May 16, 2014 1:33pm
Quoting PoundTrader
if you make a good call why brag about it or do you also brag about all the bad calls too, im saying if you brag about the good calls you need to brag about the bad calls too, if you don't it's gonna seem like you have the holy grail and we all know you don't
Yea youre right PT. It really makes no sense to me why anyone should brag about any single trade call. Markets rise and fall, but the important question is ; Are you profitable at the end of the day??? If you cant answer that question in the affirmative, then youre wasting your time blowing hot air! If anyone really wants to brag, then just attach your live trading account to your TE
  • #378,002
  • May 16, 2014 2:03pm May 16, 2014 2:03pm
Quoting makavell
{quote} yea youre right pt. It really makes no sense to me why anyone should brag about any single trade call. Markets rise and fall, but the important question is ; are you profitable at the end of the day??? If you cant answer that question in the affirmative, then youre wasting your time blowing hot air! If anyone really wants to brag, then just attach your live trading account to your te
Quoting elbert3
{quote} hi guys your concerned thank you,, but i am still in,, the money is a problem but hey,, £1980 ish,, the big boys use the 20 and 200 i will let you guess where i pull the plug,, no farm dell but i have big bullocks ????
i hold my hands up but it will come back, might have to scalp it >>
  • #378,003
  • May 16, 2014 2:55pm May 16, 2014 2:55pm
Quoting Pip-nwy
Hello guys. This is my first time to write on this thread, but I've been following and reading everyone's contributions here since I became a member last year. I would like to thank you all, I used most advices from here on my real trades. However, can someone help clear the air about US dollar. What I been reading is quite disturbing.
Oh it's a nightmare
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #378,004
  • May 16, 2014 3:33pm May 16, 2014 3:33pm
With the bullish bounce off the descending 50 fib, it looks to me like the 6820-30 area ascending 38.2 fib NFP support, broken daily TL retest has become resistance. A bearish 1hr TL break would support this.

Some targets below
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #378,005
  • May 16, 2014 3:58pm May 16, 2014 3:58pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
With the bullish bounce off the descending 50 fib, it looks to me like the 6820-30 area ascending 38.2 fib NFP support, broken daily TL retest has become resistance. A bearish 1hr TL break would support this. Some targets below {image} {image} {image}
No disrespect meant here but why would you draw the trend line like that? not saying its not turning bearish or that I am anal about a trend line but if you are going to run a long term trend line to trade you might as well draw it from the lowest low (after the breakout) to the highest low proceeding the highest high as long as that line doesn't pass through price between the two.

Always been my understanding to run a crucial trend line you want to trade of. Happy to be corrected.



Good luck with the trading III-B-Back. Your in the bearish camp, No?
  • #378,006
  • May 16, 2014 4:08pm May 16, 2014 4:08pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} No disrespect meant here but why would you draw the trend line like that? not saying its not turning bearish or that I am anal about a trend line but if you are going to run a long term trend line to trade you might as well draw it from the lowest low (after the breakout) to the highest low proceeding the highest high as long as that line doesn't pass through price between the two. Always been my understanding to run a crucial trend line you want to trade of. Happy to be corrected. Good luck with the trading III-B-Back. Your in the...
Hi Squark, no disrespect taken, I'm away from the chart now so will verbalise.
With this pair, I look for confluences as they occur regularly.
I was also looking at the weekly topping PA which says to me more down particularly since we have come off or nearly so the 1.7 area resistance.
I did draw a longer term TL from 2013 lows and on the daily it is broken, but I only showed what I saw as relevant.
All in all, considering overall PA and significance of the bearish break of the NFP 6821 support, subsequent retest and (current) rejection, along with retest of broken local TL(s) and fibs and emas along with green US data mostly, then if that ascending 1hr TL goes, then I thought the bearish case was worthy of mention.
Cheers, have a great weekend.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #378,007
  • May 16, 2014 4:38pm May 16, 2014 4:38pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Hi Squark, no disrespect taken, I'm away from the chart now so will verbalise. With this pair, I look for confluences as they occur regularly. I was also looking at the weekly topping PA which says to me more down particularly since we have come off or nearly so the 1.7 area resistance. I did draw a longer term TL from 2013 lows and on the daily it is broken, but I only showed what I saw as relevant. All in all, considering overall PA and significance of the bearish break of the NFP 6821 support, subsequent retest and (current) rejection,...
In the end I agree with you. I think its turning for a good retrace but cautious until I see a good break and retest. I tried to short this raging bull twice and failed (but with small loses). First time was when good old Navin (think your were on the correct side them) shorted as well, Technically that was a great setup so understand when he got caught holding thinking it would come back.

I'm looking for what I consider an official end to the trend, break of the strong trend line, which has been tested 4 - 5 times now, then looking for an unsuccessful test of the recent high or price penetrating and getting quickly rejected and pullback below the high and then a downward run and close of the most recent low. Not to say I won't enter a few nice shorter term setups before that happens.

All the best to you to Ill-B-Back and have a good weekend.
  • #378,008
  • May 16, 2014 4:46pm May 16, 2014 4:46pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} In the end I agree with you. I think its turning for a good retrace but cautious until I see a good break and retest. I tried to short this raging bull twice and failed (but with small loses). First time was when good old Navin (think your were on the correct side them) shorted as well, Technically that was a great setup so understand when he got caught holding thinking it would come back. I'm looking for what I consider an official end to the trend, break of the strong trend line, which has been tested 4 - 5 times now, then looking for...
You too Squark, I'm embarking on an unfamiliar and challenging intraday - day trading adventure as I have had my nuts clamped a few times lately by holding for too long.
as such, I'm only going to focus on this pair and have deleted all charts of other pairs from my screen option.
I'm watching the monthly emas 666, 200 and 200 sma as "potential" support (areas).
Off now, all the best for next week.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #378,009
  • May 16, 2014 4:56pm May 16, 2014 4:56pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} You too Squark, I'm embarking on an unfamiliar and challenging intraday - day trading adventure as I have had my nuts clamped a few times lately by holding for too long. as such, I'm only going to focus on this pair and have deleted all charts of other pairs from my screen option. I'm watching the monthly emas 666, 200 and 200 sma as "potential" support (areas). Off now, all the best for next week.
You too mate.
  • #378,010
  • May 16, 2014 5:12pm May 16, 2014 5:12pm
Gidday GBP/US

Ill b back how things going

I spent a year chasing everything that moved

was up an down in all the charts

an staying up all hours.

Hard to stand up straight with Nut clamps on

Even when I am driving the IPhone showing charts

Goes ding when something good happens.

Any way moved 90% of the account into GBP/US

All the problems in one chart

Plan is to get better results.
  • #378,011
  • May 16, 2014 5:31pm May 16, 2014 5:31pm
Quoting eliteincome
Gidday GBP/US Ill b back how things going
Hard to stand up straight with Nut clamps on
it is indeed, particularly when wading through the Quicksand of Draw Down.
It seemed the more I struggled, the faster I sank
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #378,012
  • May 16, 2014 11:08pm May 16, 2014 11:08pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
With the bullish bounce off the descending 50 fib, it looks to me like the 6820-30 area ascending 38.2 fib NFP support, broken daily TL retest has become resistance. A bearish 1hr TL break would support this. Some targets below {image} {image} {image}
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i am with you on that one ,, i have a loaded short and this is a reason not to close out ,price is some what held by the 20 ema i would of felt a lot better if it was 10 ema under 20 ema ,but yes we ill have to see monday, friday ,was it a retrace or profit taking for the sellers who sold the move before 1700??? if you look at the chart we have had a pull back before and price for now is staying in that descending tl,, the overall move down was 263 pips so not a surprise that friday was a good time to profit take,???
  • #378,013
  • Edited 11:49pm May 16, 2014 11:24pm | Edited 11:49pm
Cable/FXCM Dollar/EG_My nine charts worth_17.05.14


Monthly:
Well, after reaching the much-anticipated 76.4 FE, Pa has dropped back down, and then danced around, the 1.68 level. The Guppy profile would suggest that Cable’s northern trend is not yet exhausted, but the red MAs have yet to start any conclusive inversion north, and so I would not be surprised to see a period of stagnation ensue. Indeed, perhaps a pullback to these inverting red MAs is in order prior to any resumption of PA north. I also see – on some of the lower TFs – that PA does seem to be showing signs of exhaustion.

On the monthly FXCM Dollar (second chart), PA has kissed and then found support on the red MAs of the Guppy profile/Fib point.

EG’s monthly (third chart) suggests that Sterling is favoured at present over the Euro… probably due to uncertainty over the European elections, and Draghi’s yet-to-be announced fresh round of QE.
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Weekly:
The red MAs of Cable’s Guppy profile are on a march north, but one has to ask for how long this trend can continue. In addition to this, the FXCM Dollar has found some support, as its Guppy profile attempts to invert south. EG is firmly in a downtrend.
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Daily:
Looking at the Guppy profile I would not be surprised to see Cable revisit the 76.4 fib. The FXCM Dollar’s Guppy profile would seem to support this, as, too, does the negative gradient as seen on EG.
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Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #378,014
  • May 16, 2014 11:31pm May 16, 2014 11:31pm
HDAS PLAN
Good morning Traders,

I'm heading out the door to the beach.

I remain long to 1.70000

Just to give you all a heads up on what is going on

There is a 1.6750 OPTIONS EXPIRY - pay out 700 million at 10am EASTERN New York Time

There is also a 1.6800 OPTIONS EXPIRY - pay out 1 BILLION at 10am EASTERN New York Time

1.6750 is the closest, so the market may hold the price close to 1.6750 to collect on that payout come 10am EASTERN New York Time

After 10am EASTERN - its will be open season.

NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) has passed and because unemployment has risen, its bad for the US even though the jobs data was good and also revised higher.

I remain long GBP/USD to 1.70000 and long GBP/CAD to 1.90000

Final Note:

Scenario 1
The 2009 High 1.7043 on the GBP/USD if taken out and we get a daily close above 1.70000 (when that time comes) I will be re-entering LONG again to hold for 1.80000 and then 1.90000 and then 2.0000 - This is what position trading is about.

Scenario 2
If the 2009 High 1.7043 on the GBP/USD if taken out and we get a daily close below 1.70000 (when that time comes) I will be entering short back down to the consolidation area.

FOOD FOR THOUGHT

Brokers love day traders because there is a higher probability that from the constant in and out of trades, eventual you willlose all your money.

Brokers dislike position traders because after you pay one fee to enter the trade, the position trader then sits and collect on the daily positive swaps (which is the positive interest you earn on your trade holding it for weeks) being LONG theGBP/USD for example.

So there is a lower probability of a position trader losing money and blowing his/her account, once trading in the direction of the trend in comparison to a day trader.

I remain long GBP/USD to 1.70000 and long GBP/CAD to 1.90000

IF YOU DONT SEE IT - DONT TRADE IT



HDA
  • #378,015
  • May 16, 2014 11:33pm May 16, 2014 11:33pm
Quoting elbert3
hdas plan good morning traders, i'm heading out the door to the beach. I remain long to 1.70000 just to give you all a heads up on what is going on there is a 1.6750 options expiry - pay out 700 million at 10am eastern new york time there is also a 1.6800 options expiry - pay out 1 billion at 10am eastern new york time 1.6750 is the closest, so the market may hold the price close to 1.6750 to collect on that payout come 10am eastern new york time after 10am eastern - its will be open season. Nfp (non-farm payroll) has passed and because unemployment...
where would one say the consolidation area was ???
  • #378,016
  • May 16, 2014 11:41pm May 16, 2014 11:41pm
hey E wheres that beach the Bermuda Triangle ?



Quoting elbert3
{quote} where would one say the consolidation area was ???
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #378,017
  • May 16, 2014 11:47pm May 16, 2014 11:47pm
Quoting bones
hey e wheres that beach the bermuda triangle ? :d {quote}
if i knew where both where i would tell you ,,lol are you still sticking to your quote ,,that is going down ??
  • #378,018
  • May 16, 2014 11:50pm May 16, 2014 11:50pm
Quoting bones
hey e wheres that beach the bermuda triangle ? :d {quote}
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did you post a weekly, saying its going down,, i cant be bothered looking for it, for me the price wants to get back to the red 20 ema,, the rule over 20 ema ,sell it back,, under 20 buy it up ... No ?
  • #378,019
  • May 16, 2014 11:54pm May 16, 2014 11:54pm
it did go down ,thats why I sold at extreme amount ,and exit at a good time which is why i am a day trader looking to make money ,
you think the weekly is bullish ?
how far will hda let it run north ,hell turn back up if we go bullish ,as he always does ,




Quoting elbert3
{quote} {image} did you post a weekly, saying its going down,, i cant be bothered looking for it, for me the price wants to get back to the red 20 ema,, the rule over 20 ema ,sell it back,, under 20 buy it up ... No ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #378,020
  • May 16, 2014 11:56pm May 16, 2014 11:56pm
what would impress me more if he was adding at the correct time ,then he'd make a living ,other than 600 pips in 12 weeks at best
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
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