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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #377,161
  • May 11, 2014 8:38am May 11, 2014 8:38am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur12.png Size: 105 KB
that looks to be going short
  • #377,162
  • May 11, 2014 8:57am May 11, 2014 8:57am
Quoting Bones
Z were talking trend changer ,eu has election ,warning action etc ,etc ,all we neen is eur /lfx to take imeddiate support im talking free fall , for eu ,ej clearly this chart is diverging on lower tl ,trend is consolidate style {quote} {image}
good chart, nicely done in indexes.
  • #377,163
  • Edited 9:50am May 11, 2014 9:36am | Edited 9:50am
Quoting albchr
{quote} LOL... I know what you meant. And it's Chris. Not that I mind albchr but Chris is just easier to remember and type....LOL Well, as I've posted many times, I remain bullish on GU for at least one more leg up and my "main" buying areas remain 6800/20 to 6750/80. Do you still have the fib chart from the exercise with HDA the other night? If not.... I do, As you can see, ALL 4 fib setups align quite nicely (within a few pips) at 6820. As a chartist, I can't ignore the support that represents. Can it break? Sure which is...
Good Morning Forex Factory Member and Guests:

It's Mother's Day Today, so make sure you make that call or do something special.

@albchr:

What you are describing is called Fibonacci Convergences.

The method I was describing with the fib exercise is one of many methods used to look at the forex. I only used that method because Carlicus uses fibs so as to help him see, how it can be used as an effective tool. As you've noticed, without any additional indicators, trendlines, RSI, ATR, EMA, SMA, BB (bolinger bands) etc etc etc, just the simple trend direction and fibs, the GBP/USD could be traded easily without the day to day, excitement about what is bearish, what is bullish, etc etc etc.

In position trading the overall long term position is what is traded and not the day to day swings of the market.

Now with that said, one can assume, the fib exercise I showed all of you was hindsight trading, but was it?

Lets go back to the PURPLE AB swing, which started at the GREEN C of the GREEN AB swing.

This chart is with the compliments of Carlicus:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1399592667

(One Month and One Week Ago)


ON FRIDAY, APRIL 4, 2014 at 12:34am Eastern before the market moved,

I posted this to Ill-b-back:

Please see post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...03#post7382903

Here is the actual post below for easy reading.

I want you to look at the CHART Ill-b-back posted back then and compare it with the chart Carlicus posted based on the exercise I did with him and you will see the BEFORE (that would be Ill-b-back's chart) and then the AFTER with Carlicus's Chart.

The Chart is posted below:

@Ill-b-back:

I smiled when I saw your chart


We are both seeing the very same thing.

When trading based on charts, you must always trade off of the most recent AB Swing.

Hence your Daily chart:

A being 1.64601
B being 1.66843

Which shows a 0.50 retrace with a D Extension of 1.68214

If you then go to the 1H chart, you will see the candle stick formation Tweezer Bottoms. Which represents a bullish buy signal - (for those traders who trade with, charts, fibs, candlestick formation and trend direction).

Hence PayTheLimit's response:

Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} its also close to tweezer type configuration, if you subscribe to such theories...might need a breach of 6595 to confirm... {image}

The 10am Eastern GBP/USD Options Expiry for Friday, April 4, 2014 are as follows:

1.6570 - Hence the reason price action stopped yesterday, April 3, 2014 at 1.65702
1.6500

HDA OUT


This is Ill-b-back's Chart posted on Friday April 4, 2014

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1396562024

one day earlier

THURSDAY, April 3, 2014 at 7:36am

Please see charts post by BONES:


Quoting Bones
weekly is only problem I think ,channels unreliable but I like drawing ,neg candle this week is good enough for me to think I'm right, {image}


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1396524940

This is what elbert3 wrote when BONES posted his chart above


Quoting elbert3
{quote} {image} this is what i ment before, it depends how you see it bones is short based, so his chart is short, were i am long, and i could take it that the last red candle is a 50% pull back of the blue candle, both the same but the opinions are not,,, i rest my case your honor lol
Please see elbert3's chart below that goes along with his post

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1396526585

And this was ruffryders response to elbert's post:


Quoting ruffryders
{quote} elbert, agreed, however GU LONGs been pain in the ass lately, most rallies get sold off, and we can't take out 6660 level. Still, previous week closed as bull engulfer, lets wait and see.

Even though Davit posted this chart also at the time, Davit, made a very profound statement.

Please see chart and statement below:


Quoting Davit
This is not directed to anyone specific but it baffles me how some will keep buying the Pound when Carney stated no IR hike until mid 2015 To me this is a new downtrend.Why fight it...I posted this simple image and it is still valid regards {image} {image}

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1396543416


Davit's Profound Statement

This is why, Davit will always have my respect

[quote=Davit;7382447]{quote} HDA is also long term bull. I remain a Bear.Everyone has their approach in the end our profits speak for themselves. I recently read Hedge Fund Wizards and there is a trader Jimmy Balodimas who makes more money selling in uptrend then his fellow traders buying. I thought great deal about this and based on Harmonics and price movement patterns one can make money fading trends.Its risky but doable. I worked a methodology that works for me.Never enter the market all at once but gradually.

Quoting Davit
You are not wrong and I am not right in the end results speak for themselves. Regards

Then along comes JimmyC:


Quoting JimmyC
Howzit GU! End of the week NFP data as expected but prior month revisions put a positive edge on the result and so the taper will continue. US Equities are selling off mid session, NASDAQ in the lead $DX 80.55 Daily candle (invalid) Harami - caution GU is trading below daily pivot and above S1 below the 50 candle sma and above the 200 sma.. trend remains -> UP ST trend down -> volatility decreasing (it is Friday) DTL - Intact and suggests that there is another entry opportunity for bulls brewing. (on Tuesday?) Enjoy your weekend...

Howzit GU!

End of the week NFP data as expected but prior month revisions put a positive edge on the result and so the taper will continue.
US Equities are selling off mid session, NASDAQ in the lead

$DX 80.55 Daily candle (invalid) Harami - caution

GU is trading below daily pivot and above S1 below the 50 candle sma and above the 200 sma.. trend remains -> UP ST trend down -> volatility decreasing (it is Friday)
DTL - Intact and suggests that there is another entry opportunity for bulls brewing. (on Tuesday?)

Enjoy your weekend

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1396630929


Bones continues to post


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1396697657


And again:

Quoting Bones
Hi G ,all opinions are only probabilities ,but with the right edge/knowledge I think we can talk very high probabilities indeed , I see cable back down to major support within 1-2 months I can look at all gbp pairs and feel very comfortable that I'm right {quote}

And then JimmyC posts:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1396898486


THE POST CONTINUES BELOW
  • #377,164
  • Edited 10:04am May 11, 2014 9:38am | Edited 10:04am
PART TWO OF FIRST POST ABOVE


Bones then posts:


Quoting Bones
should be careful with these bullish candle s , {image} {image}


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1396903943


JimmyC then posts:


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1396967513


Quoting JimmyC
Still long {image}

Quoting Bones
honestly thats not H+S {quote}

Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Honestly, I've seen weaker reasons to trade

Quoting JimmyC
GU 1H Range box with probable bullish continuation {image}


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1397038584


Quoting JimmyC
... GU Daily .... Im bored {image}

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1397067829

Note progression 1.68 is psychological level... If broken (definitively) -> 1.7 follow in the months ahead...
So for the intraday guys, sure there is a short on oversold bounce...
The longer term traders are just holding - Long
FX headlines on FOMC.... US rates aren't going up yet,,,, UK rates will go up before US rates... So fundamentally long and technical will show the steps long


Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Note progression 1.68 is psychological level... If broken (definitively) -> 1.7 follow in the months ahead... So for the intraday guys, sure there is a short on oversold bounce... The longer term traders are just holding - Long FX headlines on FOMC.... US rates aren't going up yet,,,, UK rates will go up before US rates... So fundamentally long and technical will show the steps long

Quoting Bones
those touting 1.7200 ,I dont see as possibe since gbp is not bullish , {image}

Quoting Bones
Hi Jimmy my friend I'm not saying its not bullish and you your wrong at all ,lets see day close , but to be inverted H+S it dose not meet criteria ,its a bottom formation and that is within consolidation , {quote}

Quoting Bones
in fact we are above support still ,but I'm trading through it daily I think you already see confirmation ,bearish long legged doji {image}

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1397213510


Quoting Bones
As I read I see triple fairly even rejections ( first and last almost exact) against varied below ,size wise none of bullish or bearish reversal set up have been large , I do feel the 2 point across consolidation falling tl is not relevant nor is there inverse head and shoulders , its only my opinion {image}

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1397245170


BONES, continues to post - while I continue to HOLD my LONG position trade to 1.7000

quote=Bones;7401437]ive given cable some thought , there is rising channel but we must trade over highs before May during May to take us further D1 dose show a bearish formation ,(should be read in association with previous)which I'm sure would take us lower but I note the size of the bullish candle before this formation ,could work 2 ways 1)allow big bear 2)Halt d1 formation since I'm short I hope we stay below16750 pivot, {image} {image} {image}[/quote]

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1397310735


Quoting Bones
I like HDA but he hasn't provided me anything that makes me think he's an amazing trader ,i mean I can see ruff cause he provides outlook with charts even if I don't agree often , if you know what I mean , {quote}

Quoting albchr
{quote} I understand what you mean Tony. But "charts" are not everything in assessing ones knowledge. Even if we set aside for a moment his long position that he's held since September and his obvious confidence that his exit of 7000 will be met, The prices, levels, supports and options he's posted over and over tell me he clearly knows what he's talking about. That fib exercise the other night (in my humble view) was just a thing of beauty to go through and opened up a whole new area of understanding for me. Even IF...

@BONES:

I have never posted in FOREX FACTORY to try and prove that I am an amazing trader. I have posted in Forex Factory to share my knowledge and experience of trading the Forex. I spend US$10,000 for a professional forex education in a classroom setting many years ago, getting one and one mentorship along the way.

I am here only sharing my benefits from that education and the years of experience trading on the market and illustrating how one can trade the forex with a very simple chart and not all those indicators traders use and still make loads and loads of money. Nothing is wrong with indicators, I'm just illustrating another view point, not that you said anything about how I choose to trade.

I have now just illustrated, what happened in the market before it moved. NO HINDSIGHT TRADING. back then in APRIL

I have shown your personal bias to remain short trading the pound and I also displayed, that regardless of what was going on in the market from day to day, I held my position LONG, trading in the direction of the trend, knowing full well, that as the market moves it WAVES UP and it WAVES DOWN.

I would like for you to illustrate your trading plan for the pound, before the market opens today based on all the information you have posted over the weekend as to what you would do and then everyone can paper trade your plan to see if it works out.

So you or no one will actually be placing this trade, but we will all, make a mental note of where you would go short, your stop loss and your take profit.Because I know you are going to say, you are not trading the GBP/USD as this moment

If you are so confident and speak so boldly of what you see, then please display that confidence before the market moves and let us all paper trade your trading plan and see what happens.

That shouldn't be hard for you to do, because no money is at risk, just your knowledge and how you illustrate what you think.

Please not I highlighted the words think, hope and feel in all your posts.

Please read my post during the fib exercise with Carlicus


Quoting HDA
{quote} @Carlicus: Put in a very THICK horizontal line showing the 2009 HIGH 1.7043 Now what do we know. Every D extension has been HIT to the PIP on all the previous FIB colours as we are moving to the GREEN D Would you agree so far? I only trade FACTS - I don't not think, I do not guess I TRADE FACTS Would you agree with everything so far? Then I will tie it all in HDA OUT
So please Bones, since you only post what you think, hope and feel, please share your trading plan for the GBP/USD of what you think, hope and feel, before the market opens and we will all paper trade it and see what happens.


@albchr:

The rules for Trading Fib convergence as you pointed out from your observation at 1.6820 is how traders go about trying to project where the C of the RED AB swing mostly like will be.

This is why I told Carlicus to leave all the FIBS on the chart and to colour them so that a pattern will be easier to see and you spotted it.

The RULE is: you are to find convergences of any combination .382, .50, .618, .786, .86 retracements with any 1.27, 1.618 and 2.618 extensions in the direction of the trend.

Because Calicus fibs are upside down, and he wanted to sleep, I quickly wrapped up the exercise so I never went more in detail:


Quoting Carlicus
{quote} This is the updated chart. I guess your point is we should reach the 61.8% red retracement (1.67867 on my chart), and then continue to the red D or green D. I hope there is not much left, since you are in Jamaica, and I'm in Spain (it's 01:34 here) Thanks for the effort anyway, you didn't know it is late here {image}

So if Carlicus's fibs are right side up then what you would find is that the .50 of the RED AB fib and 1.618 of the Purple AB fib converges at 1.6820 and could possibly be the C for the RED AB swing to then head to the GREEN D extension

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...9&d=1399591955

Lets See What Happens


I remain long GBP/USD to 1.7000
I remain long GBP/CAD to 1.9000

Your turn Bones and we will all be paper trading your call, so no money is at stake.

Just remember the book the FOUR AGREEMENTS -

You Must Never Have The Need To Be Accept - so you don't have to prove anything Bones, nor have I been trying to prove anything also. I have just been sharing my trading and my experience trading the forex, thats all.


HDA OUT

Final Post
  • #377,165
  • May 11, 2014 9:53am May 11, 2014 9:53am
the fact is ,there has been more selling than buying even tho we stand higher in 4 months ,for day trader

,Im not right all the time but never said I was ,
I post charts all the time ,
you take issue I see that I said I dont see you as you make out the teacher all you said so far is your hold the trend no matter what ,
at times this has gone way against you im from highs ,I mean over 300 pips
Also I have said I doubt the size of your trade seen plenty of scammers who give not much as you do ,anyway your have to bring up further posts for my trade plan as I pretty much given it

I stand over £30 per pip long $ and I can not lose money if im wrong again


Quoting Bones
2 month cable , {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #377,166
  • May 11, 2014 9:56am May 11, 2014 9:56am
Quoting HDA
Final Post
...

Mine too I think.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #377,167
  • May 11, 2014 9:58am May 11, 2014 9:58am
I see huge number of fibs on the charts, generally my belief is that fibs are overrated, put any number instead, and you will see price react to it.
I personally prefer to replace fibs with quarters: 25 50 75 100 etc. makes for cleaner charts also.

Fibo-charts kinda remind me of that Gann-guy GODIM. The **** knows what his lines mean.
  • #377,168
  • May 11, 2014 10:03am May 11, 2014 10:03am
I give you my eu position at £14.00 per pip


Quoting Bones
the fact is ,there has been more selling than buying even tho we stand higher in 4 months ,for day trader ,Im not right all the time but never said I was , I post charts all the time , you take issue I see that I said I dont see you as you make out the teacher all you said so far is your hold the trend no matter what , at times this has gone way against you im from highs ,I mean over 300 pips Also I have said I doubt the size of your trade seen plenty of scammers who give not much as you do ,anyway your have to bring up further posts for my trade...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD (DFB).png Size: 42 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #377,169
  • May 11, 2014 10:05am May 11, 2014 10:05am
Quoting Bones
I give you my eu position at £14.00 per pip {quote} {image}
Bones, did you TP already?
  • #377,170
  • May 11, 2014 10:07am May 11, 2014 10:07am
No I'm waiting to see first move I will not hold a bullish monday ,I'm looking same again
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #377,171
  • May 11, 2014 10:14am May 11, 2014 10:14am
gbp usd im £10 pp ,
I think its healthy to have lower wick like that for further down , but lower trade I will not hold ,on bullish sunday ,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp USD trade (DFB).png Size: 33 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #377,172
  • May 11, 2014 10:15am May 11, 2014 10:15am
Quoting Bones
No I'm waiting to see first move I will not hold a bullish monday ,I'm looking same again
There's a sizeable bearish wolfe wave pattern on D1 EUR USD, didn't pan out to full scaled sell off @ point 5A, however turns into DBT @ point 5B, so looks like ultimately we will get flushed and mid-term reach 1.33.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 174 KB
  • #377,173
  • May 11, 2014 10:16am May 11, 2014 10:16am
Monday is just going to be the usual retrace of Friday's move, no big deal. Tuesday will have to be the Friday's followthrough day.
  • #377,174
  • May 11, 2014 10:18am May 11, 2014 10:18am
@ HDA I aways say I think as I don't know it dosent mean I'm not confident at all as you seem to be saying
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #377,175
  • May 11, 2014 10:20am May 11, 2014 10:20am
Quoting Bones
@ HDA I aways say I think as I don't know it dosent mean I'm not confident at all as you seem to be saying
just stick to your plan bro, you can't trade with profit unless you're confident in yourself and your gameplan!
  • #377,176
  • May 11, 2014 10:21am May 11, 2014 10:21am
@HDA
Thanks a lot for this great posts !!
How to opt out annoying user signatures ??
  • #377,177
  • May 11, 2014 10:26am May 11, 2014 10:26am
lol , im amazed with his content that there so much respect ,people are easy fooled just because the trend has indeed continued ,
the list of options are simply pivots ,
he will have to better to impress me sorry HDA if that upsets you

Sometimes I get it right mind you he forgot to pick this post ,

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...79#post7451879

Quoting Toranaga
@HDA Thanks a lot for this great posts !!
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #377,178
  • May 11, 2014 10:34am May 11, 2014 10:34am
Quoting Bones
lol , im amazed with his content that there so much respect ,people are easy fooled just because the trend has indeed continued , the list of options are simply pivots , he will have to better to impress me sorry HDA if that upsets you Sometimes I get it right mind you he forgot to pick this post , http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...79#post7451879 {quote}
The whole concept of holding spot position for 4-8 months is a bit far fetched I figure, you'd be doing options for such setups.
  • #377,179
  • May 11, 2014 10:34am May 11, 2014 10:34am
I did not said a word (or thought) about you, i dont care whos wrong or right.

And i also dont follow predictions or assumptions or let me be influenced by this.
Buls bears blah.. What counts is the Idea backed with Charts. Equal if Indis, Fibs
or chicken bones. When you cash in regularly, it does not matter how..

I simply said thanks to him, appreciating the effort he made writing
this two posts and the time he spent for that. Believe it or not, i learned something again today..

There should be more posts like this.

Thanks again.. :nerd:
How to opt out annoying user signatures ??
  • #377,180
  • May 11, 2014 10:39am May 11, 2014 10:39am
well you said it ,do you see a chart from hda ,what have you learned from the last 2 posts other than he's pissed I spoke my mind

Quoting Toranaga
I did not said a word (or thought) about you, i dont care whos wrong or right. And i also dont follow predictions or assumptions or let me be influenced by this. Buls bears blah.. What counts is the Idea backed with Charts. Equal if Indis, Fibs or chicken bones. When you cash in regularly, it does not matter how.. I simply said thanks to him, appreciating the effort he made writing this two posts and the time he spent for that. Believe it or not, i learned something again today.. There should be more posts like this. Thanks again.. :nerd:
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
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