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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #377,141
  • May 10, 2014 2:48pm May 10, 2014 2:48pm
if we break bearish then we leave consolidation ,we leave rest
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #377,142
  • May 10, 2014 6:10pm May 10, 2014 6:10pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} Yeah Tony he did some pages back. Maybe he is offsetting. That doesn't mean I would...LOL Don't remember the exact figure and it wouldn't be my place to post it if I did. But I do recall at the time thinking I could live quite nicely off it.
It's a lot of money but only because of the amount of $ in the position. If he's been holding since September (9 months) he'd gain about 18 pips of additional profit because of the swap. Doesn't seem like much to me considering the length of time held. Better than paying the swap I guess :-)
  • #377,143
  • May 10, 2014 7:01pm May 10, 2014 7:01pm
Quoting Bones
what longer lower wicks by far than bullish bodies , now shooting star w1 ,bearish daily ,cable may be in an uptrend overall ,but now we must correct I'm not talking 100 pips {quote}
I've been thinking about this today Tony. I just can't wrap my head around the logic of it though. If a longer lower wick on a bullish candle means bearish, then that huge longer upper wick (red arrow) on this weekly bearish candle must mean bullish??

Of course I understand the prime location of price up against an obviously strong SR for a bounce/pullback. But I'm not clear on your candle structure thinking. It's opposite of everything I know about candles.

If we look at all the green arrow candles. All of them have longer lower wicks than the bodies and we can see what happened. Not trying to be a wise guy buddy. Just trying to understand your thinking on this.
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #377,144
  • May 10, 2014 7:14pm May 10, 2014 7:14pm
Quoting Carlicus
{quote} By saying he was wrong in my opinion, I wanted to express the same as you have said, but it was shorter to say "wrong" haha By the way, Albchr, have a look at what I've found about this last drop, don't you think it's interesting? Ah, and it seems to me that 1.6820-30 is going to be a tough support, according to the chart, it was rejected 6 times before breaking through it, and then recently was a support also on the NFP day. {image}
My apologies Carlicus, I complete glazed right over what you found here. It is interesting that those two happen to be so close in pips when they bounced. Not sure if it means anything significant but it is an interesting coincidence.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #377,145
  • Edited 3:58am May 11, 2014 3:45am | Edited 3:58am
Its a good point Chris I measured the other bullish ones and this one ,I would have liked to see 17045 as the wick would have been a beuat ,
the weekly has not closed till tonight I'm looking for gaps down and/or strong close which would change it again ,not bullish straight off ,


Quoting albchr
{quote} I've been thinking about this today Tony. I just can't wrap my head around the logic of it though. If a longer lower wick on a bullish candle means bearish, then that huge longer upper wick (red arrow) on this weekly bearish candle must mean bullish?? Of course I understand the prime location of price up against an obviously strong SR for a bounce/pullback. But I'm not clear on your candle structure thinking. It's opposite of everything I know about candles. If we look at all the green arrow candles. All of them have longer lower wicks than...
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #377,146
  • Edited 4:56am May 11, 2014 3:57am | Edited 4:56am
I might add that anything over 100 in current conditions I take note,and previous 2/3 small real body weekly s

close look at numbers for close ,lets see how this puppy ends ,
ill be honest id be disappointed if that daily allowed retrace straight off bat ,i ideally don't want to enter pattern on bullish side ,
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #377,147
  • May 11, 2014 4:48am May 11, 2014 4:48am
Quoting albchr
{quote} My apologies Carlicus, I complete glazed right over what you found here. It is interesting that those two happen to be so close in pips when they bounced. Not sure if it means anything significant but it is an interesting coincidence.
Don't worry, it's ok That kind of coincidences are very strange, in my opinion. When I traded the stock market some years ago, in a Spanish stock market forum, many people posted that coincidences like that, and they usually meant something. So I think that in forex it may happen the same.

This, together with a volume analysis, makes me think that on monday we are gonna be retesting 1.69 at least.
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  • #377,148
  • May 11, 2014 5:08am May 11, 2014 5:08am
the market will always push further than you can imagine ,leave questions support in place ,res in place till its ready ,
arguments for bull and bear or neutral ,


Quoting Carlicus
{quote} Don't worry, it's ok That kind of coincidences are very strange, in my opinion. When I traded the stock market some years ago, in a Spanish stock market forum, many people posted that coincidences like that, and they usually meant something. So I think that in forex it may happen the same. This, together with a volume analysis, makes me think that on monday we are gonna be retesting 1.69 at least. {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #377,149
  • May 11, 2014 5:27am May 11, 2014 5:27am
Good morning Tony and everyone

Quoting Bones
Its a good point Chris I measured the other bullish ones and this one ,I would have liked to see 17045 as the wick would have been a beuat , the weekly has not closed till tonight I'm looking for gaps down and/or strong close which would change it again ,not bullish straight off , {quote} {image}
Yeah it kind of stinks we have to wait until tonight for the daily/weekly close. Makes weekend analysis even more of a guessing game...lol

That 1.7045 (1.7041 - 2009 high on my feed) number is the area I was/am expecting to see signs of a trend turn or continuation. Guess that's why I'm looking at the overall trend and the "possibility" of at least one more leg up before a possible classic cable tank. But I agree 100% it's not bullish or bearish straight off yet. So far what I see is it testing the last breakout up. Whatever it wants, I'm prepared to trade it either way.

Quoting Bones
I might add that anything over 100 in current conditions I take note,and previous 2/3 small real body weekly s close look at numbers for close ,lets see how this puppy ends , ill be honest id be disappointed if that daily allowed retrace straight off bat ,i ideally don't want to enter pattern on bullish side , {image} {image}
My thinking as well. It may crash right from here but Lord knows how many times I've been fooled by a move like this. The second chart in your post here with the support level shown is what I have to go by "as of now" as a chartist. JimmyC showed several failed retrace attempts in his weekly chart. This may or may not be another. Even if it is to turn down, and if there is a gap down at open, I'd expect to see a bounce back up from which to short. Should be interesting at least.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #377,150
  • May 11, 2014 5:33am May 11, 2014 5:33am
Morning Chris were the crazy weekend posters lol ,any way for us to go to 7045 ,the usd weekly would prob have to be false ,really probability now is very low ,
but as always I'm ready to be made out as a buffoon haha

Quoting Bones
2.8848/1.7932=1.6586 {image} {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #377,151
  • May 11, 2014 5:54am May 11, 2014 5:54am
Quoting Carlicus
{quote} Don't worry, it's ok That kind of coincidences are very strange, in my opinion. When I traded the stock market some years ago, in a Spanish stock market forum, many people posted that coincidences like that, and they usually meant something. So I think that in forex it may happen the same. This, together with a volume analysis, makes me think that on monday we are gonna be retesting 1.69 at least. {image}
Good morning Carculis and thanks for your understanding

There has always been much debate about volume in FOREX. With the pie being so big and each of our brokers just a very small slice of it, I have to agree getting any kind of accurate "overall picture" on volume is limited at best. That said however, having been with the same broker since starting in 2009, I have been able to discern patterns if you will, within my brokers small slice.

Since I trade intraday on smaller TF's usually 4H and less, I'm always watchfull of the tick volume "number" displayed for each bar on a given TF. For example this 1H chart. The four bars in the box are 1st bar = v3461 (about average for this length bar with my broker) 2nd = v1715, 3rd = 2042 , 4th = v3945. Now the 5th bar (green arrow) is v4689 which is more than each of the others gives a good bounce up and leaves a nice lower wick.

For me this a "hint" and only a hint that maybe buyers are stepping in or sellers stepping out (profit taking more likely). But it's enough to make me take notice. The rest of the bars are very low tick volume as would be expected that late in the NY day, especially on a Friday. But it does show (at least I think) that price is now finding balance and consolidating on this 1H TF. So to me, it's not a crushing crash nor a heavy rebound. When this happens at the beginning or middle of the week I take notice and watch closely.
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #377,152
  • May 11, 2014 5:58am May 11, 2014 5:58am
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5min looks like price is going up on the chart you cant see the low to the left, price has not made a lower low than the last touch down,? when you zoom it the white 10 has crossed the red 20 yellow 50 blue 100, this looks like it is going up to the 200 it might hit 6868 last break out, then is now resistance , a break its going long , because on the day as i said to navin the price will hit the 20ema and it has, institutions largely use 20 ema and 200, dad and his lad ?? so if,,,if price breaks the 200 carry onlooking at fib numbers in case of a retrace to 1700 but i think price for now is capped ??
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i have a long at 50 and i have tp on the 6868 incase off weekend spike ,, 90% chance i am right ??
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on the 1 hour you can see the potential target,, the trend is short until a crossover white red, so i am countertrading 15 piip x4 lot sight sl,, will give me 60 normall lot pips ?? then we see if price goes up, i think 68935 chance to get short as higher we will trade over the 200 and we will look to break the 100 sitting around 61 fib at this time another and last chance to go short if this is a retrace so it could be capped at the top trend line,, so do we go long now,,, still counter trading on the 1 hour>> see 4 hour next
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so cross over red over white ,, good night,, price for me should come back to the touch of the white 10 ema to confirm short , see x target area,,then down to the 200 a break of 6920 will go long? but now a strong case short
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now as i said last week to navin,, price will hit the 20ema on the day,,now does it go back up,, on the 4 hour not yet? we could see a very big move up over the 6920,, this will spoil the 4 hour cross over short ? if it does gb will need a catalyst ie news event that will move it that way,, or as i said before banks hedge funds use the 20 it has hit?? if not the short scenarios carries on to the 50 ema 67500 you can see on the chart fanning out would be a target area ?? see below
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  • #377,153
  • May 11, 2014 5:58am May 11, 2014 5:58am
Quoting ruffryders
guys do you think the parabolic move on GCAD is sustainable? On Weeklies clearly topping action and failure to crack above 8600. The chart shows multiple attempts, which failed so far. I'd attribute it to the topping action. The upside move on GCAD is clearly unsustaineable, 2.00 - keep dreaming. this is going to be sold off so ******* badly. the fact is we hit major resistance on 8week-stick chart (since inception). see below. yeah, it was a nice party for a while, however the minivan is running out of gas. {image} {image}...
Oh Man..


You changed your BS suddenly, that's very good for an trader but not good for an investor
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #377,154
  • May 11, 2014 6:04am May 11, 2014 6:04am
Quoting Bones
Morning Chris were the crazy weekend posters lol ,any way for us to go to 7045 ,the usd weekly would prob have to be false ,really probability now is very low , but as always I'm ready to be made out as a buffoon haha {quote}
LOL... yes we are .... As is always the case in life, there is always a balance. On one hand we have to ask are we crazy for spending weekend time posting? On the other, it's a nice steady conversation without many posts in between.

Well you know my feelings on the dollar bro. I just can't have much faith in it. I really want to (it's my darn currency) but, history speaks volumes so I'm cautiously pessimistic about it. You're no buffoon brother. Just another hungry soul trying to get a handle on this crazy market. And still FAR better at it than me.

(but I'm gaining ground...lol)

EDIT: What was I just saying about "posts in between"??
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #377,155
  • May 11, 2014 6:06am May 11, 2014 6:06am
Quoting Bones
dont tell me you want long ,lol have a nice weekend too amigo {quote}
Not yet B, enjoy the ride.
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #377,156
  • May 11, 2014 6:34am May 11, 2014 6:34am
Quoting ruffryders
guys do you think the parabolic move on GCAD is sustainable? On Weeklies clearly topping action and failure to crack above 8600. The chart shows multiple attempts, which failed so far. I'd attribute it to the topping action. The upside move on GCAD is clearly unsustaineable, 2.00 - keep dreaming. this is going to be sold off so ******* badly. the fact is we hit major resistance on 8week-stick chart (since inception). see below. yeah, it was a nice party for a while, however the minivan is running out of gas. {image} {image}...
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pennys worth, same as gbus price wants to hit red 20 ema on the 4 hour it crossed short 8490 area , this could be a ull back and off to 8162 then 7540 area
  • #377,157
  • May 11, 2014 7:43am May 11, 2014 7:43am
Quoting Zircon
{quote} Oh Man.. You changed your BS suddenly, that's very good for an trader but not good for an investor
Yeah, I pulled the plug on GU and moved into NU, that's perfectly fine, call it shapeshifting.

NU was a decent carry trade for a while, however now with threat of intervention, inst will unwind the carry, the rate will fall.

GU run was good, but as GCAD, the angle of attack is just unsustaineable anymore. I took chips off the table and got myself a new better performing setup, nothing wrong with that. GU can still do good, against EU, if it manages to find decent support, see below. Currently, I just don't see sustaineable upside.

We already have two investors here, one down 2000 points so far. I'd take a pass on investing for now.
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  • #377,158
  • May 11, 2014 7:55am May 11, 2014 7:55am
matter of fact right now one of better trade ideas is to short EG, sell into EU weakness, GU is relatively stable compared to EU. GU is also still supported by potential Pfizer deal (end of May 2014).
  • #377,159
  • May 11, 2014 8:12am May 11, 2014 8:12am
Z were talking trend changer ,eu has election ,warning action etc ,etc ,all we neen is eur /lfx to take imeddiate support im talking free fall ,
for eu ,ej
clearly this chart is diverging on lower tl ,trend is consolidate style


Quoting Zircon
{quote} Not yet B, enjoy the ride.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #377,160
  • May 11, 2014 8:34am May 11, 2014 8:34am
Quoting Bones
Z were talking trend changer ,eu has election ,warning action etc ,etc ,all we neen is eur /lfx to take imeddiate support im talking free fall , for eu ,ej clearly this chart is diverging on lower tl ,trend is consolidate style {quote} {image}
Tony, could I bother you to post the Weekly YEN, GBP and EUR indexes please? One zoom level out from this USD/CHF here and naked? You can post them in my thread if anyone here has any objections. Thanks bro.
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