EURUSD

no shit, look at tarp. or anyone with a mortgage or loan.

buying panic is often right thing to do, Draghi changed the tone but in my view it needs to be official,

sure they did with those calls for 1.4.... i bet most did not close, and got stopped out at your friends support. but if it makes you feel better. you and that shiny stuff are up..

oops

I can see it go to 3770 before another long..

looking again make that 3815

Sure. Nothing changed, I think ECB won't deliver anything on June, it will end up in nothing and worst of all he is setting up the market for disappointments or credibility issues. Then it won't matter anymore, it will just blow out 1.40 harder than it was supposed to do today.
Its like the negative deposite rate, first time he said it EUR/USD went lower 150 pips and today it goes down 10 pips if that much.

This is why, there is a stop ... to not underestimate the stupidity, when driven by greater numbers! Now, have you found any posts you said 1.399 to speculate on the top this time by a margin of few pips!

Let the bears enjoy one of these days, they are quite few and the beating have been quite hard recently

DXY highest volume since 'no taper' day. Its going to take a while for the market to adjust but theres to be a few things in play here.

1. EM is rallying hard on anticipated easing, this implies the market wants to use the EUR as a funding currency. That make sense if EONIA can get down to where near Fed Funds Effective is at around 5-9bps. (Its currently 20-25bps). A negative deposit rate would accomplish this.

2. Already talked about external buyers of EUR, namely China and Russia. I think these will go away soon.

3. Stealthy 319k claims today was under the radar but probably puts us on track for another 250k+ NFP. Given the recent low volatility everywhere, a wage growth shocker NFP could easily send the USD hundreds of points higher in one day if theres a massive repricing of the Feds tightening timeline. This argument works if your in the camp of those that believe declining labor force participation and unemployment will equate to higher wages.

4. Correlations are probably about to change- USDJPY/Stocks/Yields has been a predictable one since January. I think one of these will break away from the other, and market players will need to re position using other instruments to express their views.

5. Positioning. Dollar longs have been mainly expressed vs CAD and JPY as of late. Both of thes positions have gone nowhere recently. Draghi just opened the door for Dollar bulls by giving them an easy target (EUR).

6. Remains to be seen how longer term periphery yields will do int he face of easing, but Id wonder if people see this as a reason to take profits on those bonds if they think Draghi may be successful at sparking some inflation.

For what its worth, I think EM is getting to the point where its a sell vs the Dollar. The situation of Rising yields and falling stock prices is becoming more likely, and if that happens there could be a flight to cash. The only thing players have an option to buy in that situation is the USD and JPY.

Recall earlier i said "EUR/USD will accumulate at its last dailly support then give us one more move down before a bounce? Well it has occurred.

3907 the low then up 3947 my point news spike 3992 and back to 3837
still hold my [email protected]
open 30 min chart no close above 3947

The close today... tzs tzs tzs...

This time is for real, beware all longs out there. Time for a major correction.

TP for EURUSD - Minor (1.3758) Medium (1.3533) Major (1.3300)
TP for EURCAD - 1.4650

GBPUSD is a real mess, but I can smell the 1.60 area.

All the best and GL

bulls did what they usually do. i had some red trades, i had a better green one. 3832 did its thing. atm i am exposed.. 1.4 is still valid as is 1.4146.. i dont have a good rudder atm.. 1.4 may still happen.. or if we stall 3912 is a decent r/r ... that hh voided 3442, but the pair dont forget, so i could have held longer, or wait for 3912 if i was bearish.. the thing is 3834 is the same # affiliated with 3442. i am long with a smaller size trade..not like some ass clowns with no trade

looks like short term bottom has been found. up ~20 from here.

Thoughts on EJ? Anyone see a pullback to daily trendline or above 141.12 at all?

happy pipping

lol!

So, you were selling into $1.39 all the way up or the way down?! ( Since you becoming a reference on genius trades )

This is last retracement on Daily chart AUDUSD, price turned at .447 (this is a secondary Fibonacci number) instead of the .50 as one would have thought, which makes this level one that we have to account for. I am actually waiting for this move to be finish so I can short it. I still believe that the signal on the weekly will take us lower and now just awaiting a reversal candle 4 hours or daily, the latter would be way better.
Hope this helped.

Pedro

i was not in front pc, i sold at 3960... and was s/o at 69 on a scalp.. i also had one smaller trade from 3930 s/o at 69.. i re entered with a pending limit at 398x.. with 1.4 stop.. tp 3834,,, re-entered L there. against it being a normal retrace for 1.4... 3776 will probaly void this trade. my best risk is near 3777...3832 is where i wait as a min for the risk.. 3832 happens most times regardless of what it looks like, it happens most times before 1.4.. its never a sure thing... just like 3102 happens before 4146 most times.. i missed my entry last time at 3102 by a pip and spread. since it didnt hit 3102/03... its just like 1.4 was today.. it got pulled away before.. and 3102 is still valid most times in pa flow