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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #375,661
  • May 4, 2014 1:42am May 4, 2014 1:42am
Quoting Carlicus
{quote} Talking about big fishes, Deutsche Bank is the biggest one here, since its overall market share was 15.18% last year. And guess what? Deutsche Bank perspectives on GBPUSD are not exactly bullish ... The attached image is from Deutsche Bank's march report, and they're expecting 1.61 for mid summer. In fact they have been bearish since long ago. Moreover...
Ahh!!! I now see the great casino from where must traders here play their roulette
  • #375,662
  • May 4, 2014 1:45am May 4, 2014 1:45am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} DB analyst hiding in the bushes. {image}
These look like coca leaves! hmm. Must have gotten high just hiding in them bushes
  • #375,663
  • May 4, 2014 1:47am May 4, 2014 1:47am
Quoting Makavell
{quote} Ahh!!! I now see the great casino from where must traders here play their roulette
So the top currency trader in the world is gambling

Anyway, don't you realize that quoting deutsche bank's analysis doesn't mean I'm using their forecast as mine? Do you know how much money could represent the 15% of the overall market share? Not even Credite Suisse, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch together traded as much as deustche bank.

Deustche bank's pockets are so deep, they are probably building a mega-short since long ago, and they don't mind if it goes up to 1.70 at all.
  • #375,664
  • May 4, 2014 1:47am May 4, 2014 1:47am
Quoting Carlicus
{quote} Yeah, nowhere. And now tell me which one of bloomberg's best forecasters appears on the list of top 10 currency traders. Yeah, yeah, you are right, no one Maybe those funds are to top ten currency traders what you and me are to the fundies. Just as fundies don't mind a sh#t about us, top currency traders don't mind a sh#t about funds. Maybe the DB analyst is smoking good sh#t. {image}
you have some inside data on DB GBP USD positioning? You think that some info posted on a free-for-all website consitutes to a bank's actual positioning?
I know you don't so what's the topic of discussion then?

Large traders (funds, IBs) are NET LONG GU and been so since positioning flipped in NOV 2013. Lately there's been some trimming in NET LONG, which I attribute to seasonal weakness in May 2014. I don't see a change of direction on GBP USD, until there is a downwards cross of green vs blue line.

If you read back this thread, I posted number of reasons why the pound will not change direction, and likely only gain traction before 25th May 2014.
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  • #375,665
  • May 4, 2014 1:49am May 4, 2014 1:49am
Quoting Makavell
{quote} Ahh!!! I now see the great casino from where must traders here play their roulette
My point exactly. The IBs will mislead retail into shorting GBP USD while at the same time building their NET LONG exposure. Nice strat.
  • #375,666
  • Edited 2:10am May 4, 2014 1:58am | Edited 2:10am
Quote
you have some inside data on DB GBP USD positioning?

No I don't have insider data, but I guess that fundies are calling you on the phone, and they're telling you what they are doing.

Quote
You think that some info posted on a free-for-all website consitutes to a bank's actual positioning?
If you take public information as wrong ... Then why do you link a bloomberg report that is based on public information? Deustche bank is also taken into account for the bloomber best forecasters report . So for example, if DB was the top forecaster, that would mean that bloomberg uses secondary, secret information that nobody else knows? (because the report I linked should be false, since they are tricking retailers to go short, according to you) That doesn't make much sense.
Therefore, if the public bank reports are useless, so it is the bloomberg report you linked. It's simple logic.

Quote
I don't see a change of direction on GBP USD, until there is a downwards cross of green vs blue line.
Yeah, fundies are watching this thread too and they are waiting that your green and blue lines cross downwards in order to sell everything, even their shoes. They won't sell anything before that happens.
  • #375,667
  • May 4, 2014 2:09am May 4, 2014 2:09am
gentlemen, I came here to join bull club in gbp. I ignored gbp for long time but this all changed when I got long term buy signal. So here I am.

expect uptrend to continue.

no position yet.

my last memory of gbp is back from 2007, nov when some guru selling trading courses released MAJOR signal to buy gbpusd at 2.11 without a stop. As can be seen price drifted down to 1.34 and has not come back yet.

Thanks to him, I always use disaster stops
  • #375,668
  • May 4, 2014 2:09am May 4, 2014 2:09am
Quoting Carlicus
{quote} No I don't have insider data, but I guess that fundies are calling you on the phone, and they're telling you what they are doing. {quote} If you take public information as wrong ... Then why do you link a bloomberg report that is based on public information? Deustche bank is also taken into account for the bloomber best forecasters report . So for example, if DB was the top forecaster, that would mean that bloomberg uses secondary, secret information that nobody else knows? That doesn't make much sense to me. {quote} Yeah, fundies are watching...
you quite obviously don't have a grasp of basic concepts, including reading COT data and positioning reports. Come back, when you catch up.
continue spamming to your own perill.
  • #375,669
  • May 4, 2014 2:16am May 4, 2014 2:16am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} you quite obviously don't have a grasp of basic concepts, including reading COT data and positioning reports. Come back, when you catch up. continue spamming to your own perill.
I'm really sorry master ruffryders. Since now on, I will print your posts and cover the walls of my house with them, so that I can continually learn with your legendary knowledge. Today you made me see the light.
  • #375,670
  • May 4, 2014 2:20am May 4, 2014 2:20am
Quoting Carlicus
{quote} I'm really sorry master ruffryders. Since now on, I will print your posts and cover the walls of my house with them, so that I can continually learn with your legendary knowledge. Today you made me see the light.
maybe stop watching simpsons... may help..
  • #375,671
  • May 4, 2014 2:22am May 4, 2014 2:22am
... God I love this thread! Just as entertaining as the EUR thread but, as of now at least, still a cleaner tone overall...
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #375,672
  • May 4, 2014 2:24am May 4, 2014 2:24am
Quoting albchr
... God I love this thread! Just as entertaining as the EUR thread but, as of now at least, still a cleaner tone overall...
his wish was granted.
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  • #375,673
  • May 4, 2014 2:32am May 4, 2014 2:32am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} his wish was granted. {image}
LOL... The thing I'm waiting for is the pullback/correction before marching on northward. I just know (can almost set your watch by it) the bears will come out in force screaming REVERSAL...REVERSAL to 3500 we go!!
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #375,674
  • May 4, 2014 2:42am May 4, 2014 2:42am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} you have some inside data on DB GBP USD positioning? You think that some info posted on a free-for-all website consitutes to a bank's actual positioning? I know you don't so what's the topic of discussion then? Large traders (funds, IBs) are NET LONG GU and been so since positioning flipped in NOV 2013. Lately there's been some trimming in NET LONG, which I attribute to seasonal weakness in May 2014. I don't see a change of direction on GBP USD, until there is a downwards cross of green vs blue line. If you read back this thread, I posted...
Hi ruffy, so I was looking at this chart and I went to open it up myself. It seems like it could be poised for a correction or reversal because Large and Comm specs are so far apart right?
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #375,675
  • May 4, 2014 2:48am May 4, 2014 2:48am
Quoting aeternum
{quote} Hi ruffy, so I was looking at this chart and I went to open it up myself. It seems like it could be poised for a correction or reversal because Large and Comm specs are so far apart right?
a flip/correction will occur once green crosses blue and change direction, also a warning sign will be both green and red max out, which is not the case currently.
Same deal, less clearly visible on EUR USD.

Overall, MAY-AUGUST a good period to keep/hold GBPUSD LONG positions, due to seasonality factor as well. Seasonally, USD is stronger in May most times, however this time around doesn't seem to be the case.

The positive yield spread on GU will help it gain ground against greenback. Finally, if EU bulls manage to print 4000, there will be further room to go to 4200-4300 before the laggard ECB will kick in the gears and introduce some real changes to the policy (end of July - August probably).

Finally, the overlooked Pfizer - Zeneca deal. Before this is settled either way, I can't see any reason to short sell GU. Only buying into dips viable now.
I myself already positioned from 6800 and will hold for 7300-7400 later on this summer.
  • #375,676
  • May 4, 2014 2:58am May 4, 2014 2:58am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} a flip/correction will occur once green crosses blue and change direction, also a warning sign will be both green and red max out, which is not the case currently. Same deal, less clearly visible on EUR USD. Overall, MAY-AUGUST a good period to keep/hold GBPUSD LONG positions, due to seasonality factor as well. Seasonally, USD is stronger in May most times, however this time around doesn't seem to be the case. The positive yield spread on GU will help it gain ground against greenback. Finally, if EU bulls manage to print 4000, there will...
euro is actually even better based on COT data, since large traders are only 70 out of 100 on the 52 week index, and specs are only 34 out of 100. Once both top out @ 100, this spells trouble.

Currently the index data on EUR USD looks bullish.
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  • #375,677
  • May 4, 2014 3:05am May 4, 2014 3:05am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} a flip/correction will occur once green crosses blue and change direction, also a warning sign will be both green and red max out, which is not the case currently. Same deal, less clearly visible on EUR USD. Overall, MAY-AUGUST a good period to keep/hold GBPUSD LONG positions, due to seasonality factor as well. Seasonally, USD is stronger in May most times, however this time around doesn't seem to be the case. The positive yield spread on GU will help it gain ground against greenback. Finally, if EU bulls manage to print 4000, there will...
This is very useful analysis and enlightening. I'm considering waiting until June to buy though. Give USD one more chance to prove itself since May has barely started. If it does go up, I'm looking for 1.71 from past Support. I don't see any levels above 1.7, so I'm not sure where to TP.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #375,678
  • May 4, 2014 3:12am May 4, 2014 3:12am
Quoting aeternum
{quote} This is very useful analysis and enlightening. I'm considering waiting until June to buy though. Give USD one more chance to prove itself since May has barely started. If it does go up, I'm looking for 1.71 from past Support. I don't see any levels above 1.7, so I'm not sure where to TP.
I personally don't see a meaningful recovery of USDX since EU broke out to the top of the triangle on the W1 chart.

However might make sense to skip May and get in in June.
  • #375,679
  • May 4, 2014 3:13am May 4, 2014 3:13am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} euro is actually even better based on COT data, since large traders are only 70 out of 100 on the 52 week index, and specs are only 34 out of 100. Once both top out @ 100, this spells trouble. Currently the index data on EUR USD looks bullish. {image}
I'm getting Bearish divergence and Oversold on CCI all over my charts. I think I shall stay out of the market for a while until I have confirmation. Best to continue sticking to my own strategy until a clear direction is present.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #375,680
  • May 4, 2014 3:19am May 4, 2014 3:19am
Quoting aeternum
{quote} I'm getting Bearish divergence and Oversold on CCI all over my charts. I think I shall stay out of the market for a while until I have confirmation. Best to continue sticking to my own strategy until a clear direction is present.
sure trade your system, that's completely legit. everyone in here got bias. I got LONG bias, cause I got 200 lots GU since 6800.
(removed expiry date on purpose)
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