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Sonic R. System

  • #70,401
  • May 3, 2014 4:56pm May 3, 2014 4:56pm
The Function of Analysis

I will speak of two forms of analysis: (1) PVSRA, and (2) all other forms of analysis, "normal" forms I will call them.

PVSRA

The prime function of PVSRA is to determine if the Market Makers (Who? Anyone moving the price. Who? Who cares.) are bulls or bears. If they are bulls and price is trending up, a Classic long setup is most desirable. If they are bears and price is trending down, a Classic short setup is most desirable.

"Normal" Forms of Analysis

The prime function of "normal" forms of analysis is to locate price levels the market might use as targets should price move towards them. It is not their function, nor within their capability, to "predict" which way price will move "next", although many traders mistakenly believe that.

These statements are as straight forward and as unerring as it gets.

-tah
  • #70,402
  • May 3, 2014 5:22pm May 3, 2014 5:22pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Carlicus, If trader A made entry of one unit for a chart move of 100 pips, one expects the profit to be 100 pips. Are those ten cent pips? Are those one dollar pips? Are those ten dollar pips? Who cares! Each trader trades a size appropriate to account size, and for privacy does not need to inform us. If trader B makes the same trade, but enters with two units, one expects the profit to be 200 pips. If trader C makes the same trade, but enters with three and a half units, one expects the profit to be 350 pips. These results are extremely...
Dear Tah,

We talked about this topic a couple of weeks ago, and I didn't intend to reopen it, I was just answering to the question posted by TooSlow. I totally respect user privacy, and I have never asked about posting lot sizes. In my opinion, the question posted by TooSlow must be asked by anyone who trades Forex and counts the result in pips.

IMHO The example you have chosen is not useful for a trader if he/she varies the lot size. Suppose that trader A makes a second entry with 2 lots and losses 100 pips. The pip count would be 0, but he would be losing money.

There is a useful and simple concept in mathematics called normalization, and it has been know for centuries. It would be extremely useful for traders wondering the same question as TooSlow. The trick is to choose a fixed lot size as the norm to make the pip calculations, and make all the pip counts with respect to that norm. I will illustrate that with an example:

  1. Trader A chooses 1 lot as his norm.

    1. Then makes a trade with 1 lot and wins 100 pips.
    2. Then makes a trade with 0.5 lots and losses 100 pips ==> Because the norm was 1, those 100 pips count as 50 pips.
    3. As a result Trader A totals +50 pips (100 - 50).
    4. According to your actual method (sonicers or metatrader) the result would be 0 pips.
    5. The real money won is 500$.

  2. Trader B chooses 4 lots as his norm.

    1. Now he makes a trade with 1 lots and wins 100 pips ==> That computes as +25 pips (4 lots/1 lot = 4 || 100/4 = 25)
    2. Then he makes a trade with 0.5 lot and losses 100 pips ==> That counts as -12.5 pips lost (4 lots / 0.5 lots = 8 || 100/8 = 12.5)
    3. As a result trader B wins +12.5 pips.
    4. According to sonicers or metatrader would earn 0 pips.
    5. The real money lost is 500$.


In both cases if you keep counting pips using your chosen norm for every trade, the results are mathematically coherent, and the pip count is proportional with the real money won or lost. But nobody will know if you actually win or lose money. And it doesn't matter the lot size chosen as a norm.

As you can see, the pip count for Trader A and B should be positive and however, it is 0 with your method!! Your method of counting pips loses information and that is totally undeniable.

Using normalization, the pip count is porportional to the money won, which is the actual purpose of counting pips. And best of all as I said before, the user privacy is totally protected, since nobody knows the lot size chosen as a norm (or anything related to lots)

Anyone who can do basic math should agree with the concepts exposed in this message. The example I chose should be clarifying enough for most people, since your actual pip count is mathematically incoherent and worst of all, many information is lost in the process.

If anybody replies that it doesn't matter at all if the pip count is proportional to the money won or lost .... let me respectfully tell you that in my opinion, your pip count is totally worthless for many reasons.

Regards,

Carlos.

  • #70,403
  • Edited 5:43pm May 3, 2014 5:32pm | Edited 5:43pm
GBPJPY
As the market is, I imagine a drop of 50% or more of the whole movement, unless it has to end in the short run with the bulls and subsequent turn back.
It's easier for me to imagine the first scenario.
Naturally, all this is conjecture based on my analysis, and it is clear that the market will do what is best for him, not me.
My feelings towards this pair in the long term (TF daily) is bullish.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Check your emotions. How are you?
  • #70,404
  • Edited 6:23pm May 3, 2014 5:45pm | Edited 6:23pm
Quoting Carlicus
{quote} Dear Tah, We talked about this topic a couple of weeks ago, and I didn't intend to reopen it, I was just answering to the question posted by TooSlow. I totally respect user privacy, and I have never asked about posting lot sizes. In my opinion, the question posted by TooSlow must be asked by anyone who trades Forex and counts the result in pips. IMHO The example you have chosen is not useful for a trader if he/she varies the lot size. Suppose that trader A makes a second entry with 2 lots and losses 100 pips. The pip count would be 0, but...
Carlicus,

The pips shown on our template, for either open or closed trades, is the exact number of pips involved in the trade taking into account all entries, which can be of varying numbers of the selected unit type being traded. If and when the "Monies PL" is displayed (which applies the pip value of the selected unit type traded: ten cent, dollar or ten dollar [MOL] pips) the amount shown is exactly as shown in the MT4 account ledgers. So, please do not continue in the mistaken belief that there is any error.

You obviously have not fully delved into the User Notes of the indicator, have not experimented with it's External Inputs, and have not even bothered to confirm it's accuracy before making fallacious statements. You have not done what you should have done before criticizing. Just put on a trade. Select a unit type (micro, mini, full) and make some entries at different levels with each entry for a different number of the units. Display the open trade PL label with "monies". Compare the "monies" displayed to the sum of those entries in the MT4 account ledger for open trades. You will see they are the same. You have not done your homework!

I repeat this again in the hopes you can understand. The pips shown are the chart distance pips between entry (or the weighted average of all entries) and the close (or the weighted average of all closes) multiplied by the number of units traded of the selected unit type to be traded. The pips shown are 100% accurate. Now, whether or not you find that useful, that is the way it is. Everyone else is okay with it because it is simple and accurate. The template shows the pips PL per unit traded x the number of units traded = total pips PL. Simple and 100% accurate because it has taken care of all the averaging (weighting of varying numbers of units involved at varying levels of entry) required to be accurate.

Our template is totally accurate and 100% in agreement with MT4 account ledgers. Do your homework next time before speaking out.

-tah
  • #70,405
  • May 3, 2014 6:04pm May 3, 2014 6:04pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Carlicus, The pips shown on our template, for either open or closed trades, is the exact number of pips involved in the trade taking into account all entries, which can be of varying numbers of the selected unit size being traded. If and when the "Monies PL" is displayed (which applies the selected unit value traded: ten cent, dollar or ten dollar [MOL] pips) the amount shown is exactly as shown in the MT4 account ledgers. So, please do not continue in the mistaken belief that there is any error. You obviously have not fully delved into...
Traderathome,

Please do not feel offended, but to me, it seems that either you didn't (or didn't want to) understand my example, or you can't (or don't want to) understand the math underneath it, or you didn't took the time to understand it properly.

I will summarize it for you: the pip count in your template is absoultely right, it takes into account all entries and sizes. It is flawless. But it doesn't do any normalization with respect to a chosen lot size. Therefore, there is an information loss in the process ,which can lead to positive pip counts when you lose money, or vice versa, as I showed in the previous post. And that is wrong, since the purpose of counting pips is reflecting if you are winning or losing money. What I mean is that the pip count in your script is not proportional to the money won or lost unless you always trade the same lot size (which would be absurd) or unless you use a normalization process as I described before. That is not fallacious at all. It is unquestionably true. So please don't say I am making fallacious statements because that's absolutely false.

How on earth could be right a pip count of 0 pips, when you actually won money?? (as I shown in my example??) Your script works perfect and I haven't said anything about that, and you are accusing me of saying your script works badly. I'm talking about a theoretical flaw even if the script is fine! Is it so difficult to understand?

Regards,

Carlos.
  • #70,406
  • Edited 6:40pm May 3, 2014 6:05pm | Edited 6:40pm
Quoting Repsaj
GBPJPY As the market is, I imagine a drop of 50% or more of the whole movement, unless it has to end in the short run with the bulls and subsequent turn back. It's easier for me to imagine the first scenario. Naturally, all this is conjecture based on my analysis, and it is clear that the market will do what is best for him, not me. My feelings towards this pair in the long term (TF daily) is bullish. {image}
Repsaj,

IMO, looking at the pump and dump M15 to the round number with demand/support zone near @ 172.3x area agrees with your bullish analysis but may not make it down to the 50% fib. Maybe more accumulation of longs for a run from there.

Thanks for your post. Weekends are great for exchanging ideas. TAH's critiques of our analysis are always welcomed and insightful
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Keep It Simple
  • #70,407
  • Edited 7:00pm May 3, 2014 6:29pm | Edited 7:00pm
Quoting Carlicus
{quote} Traderathome, Please do not feel offended, but to me, it seems that either you didn't (or didn't want to) understand my example, or you can't (or don't want to) understand the math underneath it, or you didn't took the time to understand it properly. I will summarize it for you: the pip count in your template is absoultely right, it takes into account all entries and sizes. It is flawless. But it doesn't do any normalization with respect to a chosen lot size. Therefore, there is an information loss in the process ,which can lead to positive...
Carlicus,

Let me put it this way. I have no time for this.

You accuse:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...29#post7445929
"....it doesn't do any normalization with respect to a chosen lot size. Therefore, there is an information loss in the process ,which can lead to positive pip counts when you lose money, or vice versa, as I showed in the previous post."

Our indicator will never show zero pips with some PL, as you suggest. If the open or the close trade PL label shows a profit or a loss, it will always show the proper corresponding pips profit or loss, which will never be zero. What you refer to as "normalization" we refer to as weighted averaging, both the same, and the indicator certainly does accomplish this. Do your homework!

I don't know what you are trying to do, but our goal here is to keep the Sonic R. System elegantly simple and effective. Our new Trade Levels indicator does just that. And hundreds of hours were put into it by it's creators to make sure it is simple, effective, and 100% accurate. Do not expect me to have any interest in anything else.

I suggest you adopt and adapt. But, if you have a mindset that prefers a more complicated way of doing things, that is your business. If you feel your "method" has any merit at all, then make up an indicator and illustrate it as being as simple to use, as effective in managing a trade, and as accurate as ours is under all possible trade conditions.

-tah
  • #70,408
  • May 3, 2014 6:53pm May 3, 2014 6:53pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Carlicus, Let me put it this way. I have no time for this. The indicator provided will never show zero pips gain and a PL of some profit. It will never show zero pips lost and a PL of some loss. If the open or the close trade PL label shows a profit or a loss, it will always show the proper corresponding pips profit or loss, which will never be zero. Period! I don't know what you are trying to do, but our goal here is to keep the Sonic R. System elegantly simple and effective. Our new Trade Levels indicator does just that. It is simple,...
TraderAtHome,

Maybe I overestimated you. I'll try my last example.

Let's say you win 10 pips (size = 1 lot) and you lose 5 pips (size = 4 lots). Your pip count is +5 pips. Since 1 lot means 10 dollars per pip, you earn 100$ (10pips * 10 dollars) and you lose 200 $(5 pips * 40 dollars). As a result you win +5 pips when you actually lost 100$ (100 - 200).

Just tell me something, do you really think that it makes sense to have a positive pip count when you are actually losing money??? What is the purpose of counting pips then????

If the calculations were normalized, as I explained in the post you didn't understand .... the pip count couldn't be positive when you lose money, or viceversa. Anyhow, that is a mathematical concept, and maybe not many people can understand that here.

You always try to teach everybody about your system, which is really nice. But then when somebody wants to teach you something (me in this case), you either don't want to learn, do not have time or accuse me of spreading fallacies. Honestly, that is truly dissapointing from somebody who is nicknamed "professor tah" by people in the thread.

Quote
If you feel your "method" has any merit at all, then make up an indicator and illustrate it as being as simple to use, as effective in managing a trade, and as accurate as ours is under all possible trade conditions.
I really think having a pip count that can't be positive when you lose money or viceversa, wouldn't help me, but everybody, don't you agree?? The mod in the script would be minimal, so I'll try to take the time to make up the indi.

Regards,

Carlos.
  • #70,409
  • May 3, 2014 6:53pm May 3, 2014 6:53pm
"The success of the Sonic R. System comes from it's elegant simplicity." - tah


sim·plic·i·ty
simˈplisitē/
noun

  1. the quality or condition of being easy to understand or do.

Learning how chess pieces move can be accomplished in a day or 2. Learning how to play chess well takes a lifetime. Is chess a simple game? Learning the moves of SonicR and PVASR takes a bit longer than chess. Learning how to use SonicR well sounds like a lifetime endeavor. Chess has well defined rules. In FOREX, the rules can be bent and broken without consequences for those too big to die. This analogy of SonicR with chess seems to be valid, IMHO. This is only an observation not a condemnation nor criticism.

Thank you tah - Cheers!

My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #70,410
  • May 3, 2014 7:02pm May 3, 2014 7:02pm
Quoting Repsaj
GBPJPY As the market is, I imagine a drop of 50% or more of the whole movement, unless it has to end in the short run with the bulls and subsequent turn back. It's easier for me to imagine the first scenario. Naturally, all this is conjecture based on my analysis, and it is clear that the market will do what is best for him, not me. My feelings towards this pair in the long term (TF daily) is bullish. {image}
Respez,
which broker do you use? bcz mine and yours chart are telling a different story.
Also, from what I have seen from your chart, the last few candles are definitely showing signs of weakness.
1) The bullish green candle which finishes halfway in a decent volume is the first sign.
2) Next candle with high volume plus a bear candle which finishes below the last candle indicates a strong bear sentiment. If anything there is a wick which can be a concern and may lead to retest of market.
3) But since next candle was also bearish, it confirms strength has not yet there.

So, its all bear bear for now although I can be horribly wrong as I am very new.
Do inform me about your broker.
Thanks
  • #70,411
  • Edited 10:54pm May 3, 2014 7:03pm | Edited 10:54pm
Quoting Carlicus
{quote} TraderAtHome, Maybe I overestimated you. I'll try my last example. Let's say you win 10 pips (size = 1 lot) and you lose 5 pips (size = 4 lots). Your pip count is +5 pips. Since 1 lot means 10 dollars per pip, you earn 100$ (10pips * 10 dollars) and you lose 200 $(5 pips * 40 dollars). As a result you win +5 pips when you actually lost 100$ (100 - 200). Just tell me something, do you really think that it makes sense to have a positive pip count when you are actually losing money??? What is the purpose of counting pips then???? If the calculations...
Carlicus,

Again you accuse:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...54#post7445954
"Maybe I overestimated you. I'll try my last example.
Let's say you win 10 pips (size = 1 lot) and you lose 5 pips (size = 4 lots). Your pip count is +5 pips. Since 1 lot means 10 dollars per pip, you earn 100$ (10pips * 10 dollars) and you lose 200 $(5 pips * 40 dollars). As a result you win +5 pips when you actually lost 100$ (100 - 200)."

Our pip count on a negative move of 5 pips on 4 lots is a loss of 20 pips total, not a loss of just 5 pips total as you accuse. Just because you sit down in the middle of the desert and write, "It is snowing around me.", does it mean because you wrote it we are to believe it? No, of course not! All the space you have so far wasted on this thread is based on the accusation our indy does not "normalize", does not properly account for varying numbers of units at different entries. Here, I will prove to you it does, not by some scribble math posted apart from the indy as you do, but by using the indy to exonerate itself.

Look at the attached picture. There are five entries of various sizes. The average level of the five entries, were they all of the same size, would be 172.61. You can clearly see the average level line is at 172.503, and this is because the process you claim our indy does not do, is being done! The two lowest entries have the highest number of units. The properly weighted averaged line is therefore lower than the simple average line. There! Proven!

In a nutshell, what you see is the proper weighted average line of all entries. Based on this, the PL label shows the proper weighted pips PL for all the number of units traded. Maybe you think it would be nice if we could clutter the chart and also show separate PL labels for each entry, but the chart would be unusable! Remember, the goal achieved was to have an indicator that was totally competent under all conditions, yet simple to use and effective for managing the trade. If you can hedge, just close out any entry (or any part of any entry) and there will appear a closed trade level showing the PL for the closed portion. And the open trade level PL will adjust contents accordingly, and so will the level of the average line for all the remaining units of the trade! All computations are carried out using the proper weighting necessitated by varying numbers of units traded at different levels. The code is open. You have no excuse to say something isn't being done when every Sonicer here can view the code and see that it is. Please, do your homework!

If you do not do your homework and persist with your falsehoods, you will lose your posting privilege. I have been more than patient with you on this and I tire of all this nonsense. If you don't like the format of our indy, just code and use your own. You don't post trades here anyway.

-tah.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #70,412
  • May 3, 2014 7:09pm May 3, 2014 7:09pm
Prof TAH,

I have been enraptured by your works for a while now and am still studying PVSRA diligently, so am not going to ask you any questions. All I want to say, is that you are, in one word ''Awesome''. I just cant believe how articulate one human being can ever be. I don't know you, but I get the sense that you are such a great guy. And am sure many here would queue to shake your hands if they ever get the chance.

I wasn't planning to post just yet until I am confident enough - but the below quote from you - a masterpiece for all time - just blew my mind away. What a quote, what a Prof you are. And it is so true and it is what makes any man different from the rest of his generation.......good stuff! Only thing I would change: Artists = Successful Traders; Accountants = The rest traders;

''And now let me add this. Traders should think more like artists and less like accountants. Artists somehow manage to perfectly fill in the blank spaces with total mathematical imprecision. For accountants, there can be no blank spaces. Everything must be precise. Unfortunately, the market proficiently deceives & thieves by creating blank spaces - the unknown - which the analytical mind will not accept, and the artistic mind relishes. PVSRA is the paint brush for the artist, not the pen of the accountant''
  • #70,413
  • May 3, 2014 7:39pm May 3, 2014 7:39pm
Hi Sonickers,
What is your sentiment to AUDUSD? I was bearish and I wonder if I can interpret this situation now in this way:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #70,414
  • Edited 10:40pm May 3, 2014 9:09pm | Edited 10:40pm
Prof TAH
First, have a good weekend!

I very like PVSRA templates, It made me look at the chart is no longer monotonous, and to better feel the price fluctuation.

I am interested in PVSRA and very like your post in this thread, but I have some problems that prevent me to learn PVSRA?!

I study your post from the last week in March last year to today. I think PVSRA is uncertain and very subjective in most cases, but money management is the most important of your trade. (Maybe I don't understand PVSRA)

I take indicators (such as MA or MACD......) with money management, maybe I can trade as well as you~~~

You said "PVSRA is to determine if the MMs (Market Makers) are bulls or bears, and determine if the price movement is in the MM's "Run for Profits" or "Position Building" phase".

But, I think MMs doesn't always right, such as Nicholas.Leeson of Barings Bank, in 1995, to 10 billion dollars, inverse MA60 to long the Nikkei index, that he has been destroyed only 3-4 months in the market. Such as great as Livermore, and his incomparable influence and appeal, also A rout is like a landslide. The money such as Warren Buffett......but his operate is based what not to see from the chart.

In addition, who can say MM's phase? It is now "Run for Profits", in the next second is "Position Building", or "Run for Profits" and "Run for Profits", and "Run for Profits".......So repeatedly, do you feel tired?!

Then, you said one of my favorite words that "we can never know how price will move next", so, we just need to find an extreme situation, and with money management, the rest is sitting still until you see appears a little sign.

thanks TAH again
and I welcome for a comment from you , to correct my view, I will love PVSRA forever. I will never leave this thread.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #70,415
  • May 3, 2014 9:14pm May 3, 2014 9:14pm
Carlicus in your example you mention:
“Let's say you win 10 pips (size = 1 lot) and you lose 5 pips (size = 4 lots). Your pip count is +5 pips. Since 1 lot means 10 dollars per pip, you earn 100$ (10pips * 10 dollars) and you lose 200 $(5 pips * 40 dollars). As a result you win +5 pips when you actually lost 100$ (100 - 200)."

Yes you can win 10 pips with 1 lot make $100 and then lose 10 pips with 100lots thus pips in breakeven but at huge $ loss.
Why would you trade 1 lot, then trade 4 lots? Do you know about money management?
You might as well trade 1 lot then trade 10 lots if you like gambling.

So for trading purposes your example is flawed.
The whole point to winning is following some sound Money management which in the long run is more important than your strategy.
Your strategy give you an edge. What this means it basically increases your success rate (%) in trades won (if followed properly i.e psychology is important)
So then the most important part is how you manage your money and risk.

This is important because:
With strict MM you won’t blow your account.
There are methodologies in forex like 1-2% risk per trade and as a minimum Risk to Reward ratio 1:2.
So for example you risk only 1% and have a risk to reward of 1:3, in case of your strategy giving you 50% profitable trades you will still make money.
These will make you profitable in the long run BUT these are only theories and you need to ADAPT to your trading method and TEST them. There are no tricks here, nothing is sugar coated either, you have to test that by yourself.

Basically, test how much success rate a strategy gives you in a demo or some forex tester software. See how big your draw dawn periods are and adapt proper money management rules to allow your capital to survive (working drawdawn would be up to 25% but again it depends on the risks you are willing to take). The concept of Risk to reward in theory is nice but personally I abhor it and would prefer to close partial position and move SL to break even (better build up slowly than depend on the markets or worse lose because of greed and unrealistic RR goals).

Finally, hope that things are clearer now, and please avoid thinking like: 1lot now then 5 lots is wrong and even if you are lucky to win, in the long run you will pay for that. Forex traders are not gamblers.
  • #70,416
  • Edited 11:21pm May 3, 2014 11:02pm | Edited 11:21pm
Quoting WangXun
Prof TAH First, have a good weekend! I very like PVSRA templates, It made me look at the chart is no longer monotonous, and to better feel the price fluctuation. I am interested in PVSRA and very like your post in this thread, but I have some problems that prevent me to learn PVSRA?! I study your post from the last week in March last year to today. I think PVSRA is uncertain and very subjective in most cases, but money management is the most important of your trade. (Maybe I don't understand PVSRA) I take indicators (such as MA or MACD......) with...
WangXun,

To every difficulty you have, to every comment you have made, detailed responses have already been documented on this thread, more than once! I make no apologies when I say to you that if you embark on the voyage to become proficient with PVSRA you will have to do a lot of reading, a lot of applying, and a lot of discovery of your own.

Fortunately, more and more Sonicers are posting their PVSRA trade analysis, which sometimes earns the comments of others, all of which helps to make learning PVSRA easier now for everyone. We are not baking cookies here. We are cracking the nuts of the crooked banks! Don't expect this to be so easy. This thread is the Sonic R. System text book. If you go to college to earn a Masters or Doctorate Degree, you will have to read many, many text books - not only read them, but learn them, and satisfactorily pass tests on every part of every one of them! Do the work or don't. It is your choice.

With every new brain that takes on the challenge to become proficient with PVSRA there is also the chance that yet another facet to this diamond will be discovered and polished for all to see and benefit from. So, it is not just a matter of learning and parroting. It is a voyage of discovery that will open your eyes to how the market really works.

-tah
  • #70,417
  • May 3, 2014 11:20pm May 3, 2014 11:20pm
Inserted Video
YOUR MOTHERS ASS
  • #70,418
  • Edited 11:58pm May 3, 2014 11:47pm | Edited 11:58pm
Quoting sherdog
Hi Sonickers, What is your sentiment to AUDUSD? I was bearish and I wonder if I can interpret this situation now in this way: {image}
AUDUSD:

My sentiment is neutral. This is why:

1. WEEK chart is a doji - indeterminate
2. DAY chart is a hammer down - could be bullish, but more data is needed.
3. H1 chart (attached) -

Going into last Friday (NFP day) the preceding days look to have some pumps above the whole number to add shorts, shorts to close on Friday at profit because the MMs already knew they were going to torpedo the price, which they did. The rise back up could be the start of bulls, or maybe this short closing will be followed by more, and meanwhile the MMs support the price once again above the half number to suck in longs so the MMs can replenish their shorts.

The H1 chart does not establish an demonstrative clue for the future. It was a Friday, and after the NFP whackin' Whippin', things wound down. Under these circumstances of exceptionally high volatility immediately followed by little volatility, no valid read is possible (imho).

Furthermore, the first part of next week (as with every week) the MMs might "clear the slate and start something new". They might spend some days positioning prices for planned runs later, runs that might or might not agree with any prior analysis. So, either way you figure based on Friday, you could be right come Monday, or wrong until days later! It might be best to resume our PVSRA at the start of a new week and see how things start to go from there.

-tah
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #70,419
  • May 4, 2014 12:22am May 4, 2014 12:22am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} AUDUSD: My sentiment is neutral. This is why: 1. WEEK chart is a doji - indeterminate 2. DAY chart is a hammer down - could be bullish, but more data is needed. 3. H1 chart (attached) - Going into last Friday (NFP day) the preceding days look to have some pumps above the whole number to add shorts, shorts to close on Friday at profit because the MMs already knew they were going to torpedo the price, which they did. The rise back up could be the start of bulls, or maybe this short closing will be followed by more, and meanwhile the MMs support...
AUD/USD seems bullish to me. Strong volume at the lows, below the dragon.

Plus on the daily it rejected the support level.

There will probably be another move up before the MM's decide to obtain their profits. Major news announcements are meant for MM's to make profits by stealing through S/L hunting.

Do the MM's care about RETAIL TRADERS ? No way ! They have their own pockets to worry about and fill. That's how the world works i guess.

Just my take on it
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Take what the market gives you.
  • #70,420
  • May 4, 2014 1:17am May 4, 2014 1:17am
Quoting cigarguy
{quote} Repsaj, IMO, looking at the pump and dump M15 to the round number with demand/support zone near @ 172.3x area agrees with your bullish analysis but may not make it down to the 50% fib. Maybe more accumulation of longs for a run from there. Thanks for your post. Weekends are great for exchanging ideas. TAH's critiques of our analysis are always welcomed and insightful {image}
I do not explained well in the first post.

I will try to explain the scenarios that, to me, look more likely. I see three scenarios.These scenarios are based on all factors affecting the markets, including the interests of the MMs.

1__ Market test last high.
2__ Market begin a retracement directly.
3__ Market test last high and rising more.

We could include a 4th stage, it would be that the market is flat long.

What I meant was that all of these scenarios, for me, the most likely is the second: an immediate retracement. I can be wrong.

Clearly I do not know how it will move the market, but from these imaginary situations, I can make a plan that will vary according to events.

Then in my post saying that my feeling with this pair is bullish, through the analysis of daily TF.

I hope you understand better now I see this pair.
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