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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #375,581
  • May 2, 2014 11:13am May 2, 2014 11:13am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} This artist boy is amazing still, claims to be a king of fundies, yet he's short GU now. I posted the GU scorecard today, so I don't see how that short trade fits into his fundumental-based trading concept. I guess he's got balls of steel and can withstand 500 points drawdown and still emerge unscathed from the battle brand new with a new demo account. True warrior spirit that one, in a gentle and subtle way but. Artist, that's telling, right? {image}
Yeah I saw that earlier, looks like a nice tool. I keep my trading much much simpler half of what I do is based on pseudo-psychology and trying to ask myself "If I were the market, how would I be a big bastard today?" .. it seems to work well.
  • #375,582
  • May 2, 2014 11:15am May 2, 2014 11:15am
Quoting AlanB
{quote} Yeah I saw that earlier, looks like a nice tool. I keep my trading much much simpler
true, but my current trade is longer-term (2-3 months) GBPUSD LONG structured via call options 200 std lots, so I thought I might as well run a fundie test.

Technically I'm fine with GU and see it printing 7000-7200 shortly (3-8 weeks at most).
  • #375,583
  • May 2, 2014 11:17am May 2, 2014 11:17am
Quoting AlanB
{quote} lol ah the old "I need to show people how much I am ignoring them" Good luck with your trading, I know you've been profiting well for a while now and nothing I said was insulting your efforts, I just discussed the idea of a single data point trade but be a baby about it if you want (I know you'll read this, you put so much effort into showing me how much you're ignoring me you're bound to be unable to resist reading what I respond with)
He's a funny guy, makes little sense with EU and GU Fundies on most occasions, and no sense on others.
With a history of putting a positive spin on red US numbers and a negative spin on green UK numbers, and now the simplistic comment today,

It's perplexing to say the least.........

I eventually had to put him on ignore, as enough just became enough.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #375,584
  • May 2, 2014 11:18am May 2, 2014 11:18am
For the "jobs number" following gurus.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/02/up...port.html?_r=1
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #375,585
  • May 2, 2014 11:18am May 2, 2014 11:18am
I like to read shwagger's market wizards(both books) quite often as I like to know mind behind true success, and one of the most repeated quotes I found was that any "trader" with ego will never make it. If you think that you are better than the market that your opinion means anything you are so off your tits.
That is why when i saw that deluded kid from india saying "I am determined to smack the market" I knew my longs are safe, I have a pain treshold and I am willing to be a bear on monday London open if need it, I am a little fish who mean nothing and don't have to prove anything to anybody cause market will go where it wants with or without me.
Think about it for a second, and ejnoy your weekend
swing it!
  • #375,586
  • May 2, 2014 11:24am May 2, 2014 11:24am
extremely bullish
  • #375,587
  • May 2, 2014 11:24am May 2, 2014 11:24am
Quoting tomspin
I like to read shwagger's market wizards(both books) quite often as I like to know mind behind true success, and one of the most repeated quotes I found was that any "trader" with ego will never make it. If you think that you are better than the market that your opinion means anything you are so off your tits. That is why when i saw that deluded kid from india saying "I am determined to smack the market" I knew my longs are safe, I have a pain treshold and I am willing to be a bear on monday London open if need it, I am a little fish who mean nothing...
Straight
  • #375,588
  • May 2, 2014 11:24am May 2, 2014 11:24am
Quoting tomspin
I like to read shwagger's market wizards(both books) quite often as I like to know mind behind true success, and one of the most repeated quotes I found was that any "trader" with ego will never make it. If you think that you are better than the market that your opinion means anything you are so off your tits. That is why when i saw that deluded kid from india saying "I am determined to smack the market" I knew my longs are safe, I have a pain treshold and I am willing to be a bear on monday London open if need it, I am a little fish who mean nothing...
Nice post Tom
I have all of them.Specially like Hedge fund wizards

Low liquidity now so even relevantly small orders push price.Its just clearing stops.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #375,589
  • May 2, 2014 11:25am May 2, 2014 11:25am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} true, but my current trade is longer-term (2-3 months) GBPUSD LONG structured via call options 200 std lots, so I thought I might as well run a fundie test. Technically I'm fine with GU and see it printing 7000-7200 shortly (3-8 weeks at most).
That quickly Ruffy? Woo Hoo!
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #375,590
  • May 2, 2014 11:28am May 2, 2014 11:28am
Quoting tomspin
I like to read shwagger's market wizards(both books) quite often as I like to know mind behind true success, and one of the most repeated quotes I found was that any "trader" with ego will never make it. If you think that you are better than the market that your opinion means anything you are so off your tits. That is why when i saw that deluded kid from india saying "I am determined to smack the market" I knew my longs are safe, I have a pain treshold and I am willing to be a bear on monday London open if need it, I am a little fish who mean nothing...

yupyup You have to have a bit of ego to even start trading imo but too much blind ego will get you killed in this business, it's what keeps people holding onto a loser past all point of being proven wrong by the market, because their analysis just has to be right in the end.
  • #375,591
  • May 2, 2014 11:29am May 2, 2014 11:29am
Quoting albchr
{quote} That quickly Ruffy? Woo Hoo!
7250 absolutely by end of June 2014. 7400 is just +0.5 std dev to mean month closing price since 92.

I doubt we will go for full +1 std dev that fast, but until year end, might be possible to get 8000.

I don't look that far, since 7400-7500 is an area of ULTIMATE RESISTANCE for my current investment period, so I'd just finish
with GU trade end of June-July and move the funds elsewhere.
  • #375,592
  • May 2, 2014 11:33am May 2, 2014 11:33am
Quoting AlanB
{quote} yupyup You have to have a bit of ego to even start trading imo but too much blind ego will get you killed in this business, it's what keeps people holding onto a loser past all point of being proven wrong by the market, because their analysis just has to be right in the end.
investment generally is no more than 60% skill for the top traders, and 40% luck. That's why you have even the greatest traders return to mean eventually, or go bust
(John Paulson, made big away with mortgage bets, got burned LONG GOLD, Long Term Capital Management - got burned on securities arbitrage, etc, etc).

There's been a big paper published by Morningstar, that most funds that did well in 90s, then trailed in 00's, and those who were behind and lagged in 90's did OK in 00's.

So bottom-line - it's close to the casino really. You can get an edge on the house and have winning streaks, but then will revert to the mean regardless.
  • #375,593
  • May 2, 2014 11:34am May 2, 2014 11:34am
Birds of a feather flock together

winners know who winners are both in mind and action.Lets just say they are a minority.
Number of idiots here outnumber winners.Same in the markets...
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #375,594
  • May 2, 2014 11:36am May 2, 2014 11:36am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} 7250 absolutely by end of June 2014. 7400 is just +0.5 std dev to mean month closing price since 92. I doubt we will go for full +1 std dev that fast, but until year end, might be possible to get 8000. I don't look that far, since 7400-7500 is an are of ULTIMATE RESISTANCE for my current investment period, so I'd just finish with GU trade end of June-July and move the funds elsewhere.
Cool. My goal on the whole GU nut is 7100/7300, by the charts and as of now. But I simply have no clue how to even try to figure how long it might take. I just let my charts keep telling me if it will keep going up, stop and hover or turn back down. You folks who have all this other knowledge simply amaze me.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Being a simple guy, Thank the good Lord for charts!
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #375,595
  • May 2, 2014 11:41am May 2, 2014 11:41am
Does not seem too much has changed. Respecting levels thus far. Wish you all a good weekend.

http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...3xi23Q2_5-Rk2Q


Just an update to chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #375,596
  • May 2, 2014 11:43am May 2, 2014 11:43am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Cool. My goal on the whole GU nut is 7100/7300, by the charts and as of now. But I simply have no clue how to even try to figure how long it might take. I just let my charts keep telling me if it will keep going up, stop and hover or turn back down. You folks who have all this other knowledge simply amaze me. I've said it before and I'll say it again. Being a simple guy, Thank the good Lord for charts!
Using stats and probabilities. There's over 76% probability that GU will run up +200 points to it's closing price in April, which was 6870. This gives you a base target of 7070 in May 2014. That's just May. Using same approach, stats and probs you can calculate with a decent confidence level potential targets 1-2-3 months out.

Top this off with options data, and you can get hints to potential future moves. That's about all I'm willing to say on that subject. You can dig deep and do your own research.
  • #375,597
  • May 2, 2014 11:46am May 2, 2014 11:46am
Quoting iqyu5an
no shark in maldive ? http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...9&d=1398944885 i see it from my cabin ... {quote}
igyuan, I think yous shark just got taken from behind by a Godzilla.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #375,598
  • May 2, 2014 11:47am May 2, 2014 11:47am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} Using stats and probabilities. There's over 76% probability that GU will run up +200 points to it's closing price in April, which was 6870. This gives you a base target of 7070 in May 2014. That's just May. Using same approach, stats and probs you can calculate with a decent confidence level potential targets 1-2-3 months out. Top this off with options data, and you can get hints to potential future moves. That's about all I'm willing to say on that subject. You can dig deep and do your own research.
and thanks
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #375,599
  • May 2, 2014 11:52am May 2, 2014 11:52am
This sure was a crazy ride for me. Short 1.6905, long 1.6835 and again short 1.6873. Maybe it will hit my tight SL for the last one, but positive in the end anyway xD. (Sorry it's hindsight posting i know just want to type it down, enjoy your weekend) (HDA )
  • #375,600
  • May 2, 2014 11:53am May 2, 2014 11:53am
Quoting Mr. Scott
Does not seem too much has changed. Respecting levels thus far. Wish you all a good weekend. {image} Just an update to chart. {image}
nice chart..i must say this is the best case i have seen for a continuation
have a good weekend
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