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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #375,181
  • May 1, 2014 2:36pm May 1, 2014 2:36pm
Evening

Few thoughts
-NFP tomorrow so, I'll prefer to look at it with the popcorn in one hand

GU 1H
Technical structure: Flat sided triangle - Bearish bias - in formation
- Requires the break of 1.68775 has a measured target of 1.68765
- Duration of execution might put completion in NFP so I'm not too keen
-4H shows a support (untested) @ 1.686 which could get in the way

Note additional bearish support comes in from the daily which is forming an inverted hammer - if nothing changes

Indexes are turning bearish - most have been around all time highs

Risks - most bearish setups on Cable have failed lately -> this setup requires good data from the US to support on-going bearish action and its been a spot mixed for the dollar on that front.

As always the dice will roll and anything can happen.

I'll chat tomorrow

Attached Image
  • #375,182
  • May 1, 2014 2:36pm May 1, 2014 2:36pm
Quoting elbert3
{quote} dell best trade of the day above ,, i will be taking her for a new dress with that one lol but lost pips on 3 trades total 18 i think
Nice one E wondering whats your take on NFP .. should be an interesting one but feeling the real move will be next week.. so gonna stay on short mode - guess NFP can be a scalpers dream hey hombre ..
  • #375,183
  • May 1, 2014 2:49pm May 1, 2014 2:49pm
Quoting JimmyC
Evening Few thoughts -NFP tomorrow so, I'll prefer to look at it with the popcorn in one hand GU 1H Technical structure: Flat sided triangle - Bearish bias - in formation - Requires the break of 1.68775 has a measured target of 1.68765 - Duration of execution might put completion in NFP so I'm not too keen -4H shows a support (untested) @ 1.686 which could get in the way Note additional bearish support comes in from the daily which is forming an inverted hammer - if nothing changes Indexes are turning bearish - most have been around all time highs...

Top markoTop
  • #375,184
  • May 1, 2014 3:17pm May 1, 2014 3:17pm
Quoting JimmyC
Evening Few thoughts -NFP tomorrow so, I'll prefer to look at it with the popcorn in one hand GU 1H Technical structure: Flat sided triangle - Bearish bias - in formation - Requires the break of 1.68775 has a measured target of 1.68765 - Duration of execution might put completion in NFP so I'm not too keen -4H shows a support (untested) @ 1.686 which could get in the way Note additional bearish support comes in from the daily which is forming an inverted hammer - if nothing changes Indexes are turning bearish - most have been around all time highs...
thinking the same gl
  • #375,185
  • May 1, 2014 3:47pm May 1, 2014 3:47pm
Quoting DerekTrotter
{quote} Nice one E wondering whats your take on NFP .. should be an interesting one but feeling the real move will be next week.. so gonna stay on short mode - guess NFP can be a scalpers dream hey hombre ..
this is why i am going to clear the decks ???? lets see in the morning,, night mate
  • #375,186
  • May 1, 2014 3:56pm May 1, 2014 3:56pm
Quoting Kajos2250
{quote} GU H4 GMT +3 Triggered again and the buy limit erased, .6823 is the first realization target, 5 longs will be closed and the other set BE. Invalidation price moved a little bit higher, if close under ~6780... Good luck! {image}
GU H4 GMT+3

I see it is flagging, the bullsih trend continues. Further strengthening, other buy limet placed .6907 and buy limit .6850, invalidation was not changed.
Ann, Jake, Chris, Tibor you should not do this forward, because if the buy stop will trigger the closeing at invalidation price will be some loss that i can accept.
The previous plan remains in force... Do not forget to book some at .6923!

Good luck!
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Anything is math!
  • #375,187
  • May 1, 2014 4:40pm May 1, 2014 4:40pm
The level 6820 was hunted and killed. Now MM will reconsider his goals. The interesting thing is our psychology why do people now consider long 6600 after rally since 6250. Rally is over dont long it till down trend rally will not over. I can guarantee u will catch SL at 6600 6500 and even below 6400. Ye its possible that rally will finish at 7050 or 7150 but MM knows that a lot of will again will short those levels and this is not what he wants.
Now the goal of him is to make confusion picture. That bitch will be droped to 6600 and then go back to 6850 then again sharp drop. In such conditions you will not undestand the accual trend and probablly will long at 6700.

Why much of market shorted 6250 ? because 6310 was broken by red 1H candle. What was the psychological reaction of market retailers? Of cause to sell pound. what MM need.

I stated use my branes instead of fibonachi. Fibonachi or RSI14 its useless lotto rulete.
  • #375,188
  • May 1, 2014 5:07pm May 1, 2014 5:07pm
Quoting JimmyC
Evening Few thoughts -NFP tomorrow so, I'll prefer to look at it with the popcorn in one hand GU 1H Technical structure: Flat sided triangle - Bearish bias - in formation - Requires the break of 1.68775 has a measured target of 1.68765 - Duration of execution might put completion in NFP so I'm not too keen -4H shows a support (untested) @ 1.686 which could get in the way Note additional bearish support comes in from the daily which is forming an inverted hammer - if nothing changes Indexes are turning bearish - most have been around all time highs...
what's your dustbin levels?
  • #375,189
  • May 1, 2014 5:27pm May 1, 2014 5:27pm
Quoting AllyB
{quote} what's your dustbin levels?
Give up your EURUSD ones ;P I dumped mine after that two weeks of ranging, need new ones! Also hi you Lurker.
  • #375,190
  • May 1, 2014 10:33pm May 1, 2014 10:33pm
Quoting JimmyC
GU vs EU by Price fyi {image}
Jimmy,
can you share how to make price chart side by side for pair comparison like this?
is there any indicator to add for this feature to mt4?
TIA!
A handful of patience is worth a bushel of brains
  • #375,191
  • May 1, 2014 11:55pm May 1, 2014 11:55pm
here we go again, same old story, GUs up 100+ points, everyone excited - it's a market top! Yeah, please pile in short, sir.
Stake your farm/horse/tools etc on this, but maybe check some info first.

There is and will be no market top, until the deal either materializes, or fails, deadline is 26th May 2014.
Quote
Under British takeover rules, Pfizer has until May 26 to announce its intent to make an offer for AstraZeneca, or walk away.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101634151?__s...ares+sweeter+b
  • #375,192
  • May 1, 2014 11:56pm May 1, 2014 11:56pm
Quoting AllyB
{quote} what's your dustbin levels?
from rags to riches, new scheme?
Attached Image
  • #375,193
  • May 2, 2014 12:08am May 2, 2014 12:08am
Quoting Trader88q
The level 6820 was hunted and killed. Now MM will reconsider his goals. The interesting thing is our psychology why do people now consider long 6600 after rally since 6250. Rally is over dont long it till down trend rally will not over. I can guarantee u will catch SL at 6600 6500 and even below 6400. Ye its possible that rally will finish at 7050 or 7150 but MM knows that a lot of will again will short those levels and this is not what he wants. Now the goal of him is to make confusion picture. That bitch will be droped to 6600 and then go back...
Making things too complicated. EURGBP got 200-400 points move down pending, which will be either EU weakness / GU strength, or GU will outperform EU, which is a more likely scenario currently. Chart EG - see above, posted earlier. Clear rejection @ 8300 and target @ 7800-7900.

Very good trade to take mid-term, since you are trading here pretty much EU against GU, with no USD component.
  • #375,194
  • May 2, 2014 1:11am May 2, 2014 1:11am
European opening calls:
$FTSE 6809 flat
$DAX 9622 up 19
$CAC 4481 down 7
$IBEX 10472 up 13
$MIB 21826 up 42
  • #375,195
  • May 2, 2014 1:13am May 2, 2014 1:13am
Morning, GU traders. I ran a scoring test to check the GBPUSD underlying fundumentals. Please see below.

I see a strong case currently for GU to take on 7000 level soon.
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  • #375,196
  • May 2, 2014 1:18am May 2, 2014 1:18am
Quoting grin
{quote} What is your methodology to translate that into levels?
This is fundumental, not technical, technical levels I posted multiple times already. Here they are anyway.

1.7740 ULTIMATE RESISTANCE
1.7440 STRONG RESISTANCE
1.7140 RESISTANCE
1.7120 RESISTANCE
1.7040 STRONG RESISTANCE
1.6900 RESISTANCE
1.6860 RESISTANCE
1.6840 RESISTANCE
  • #375,197
  • May 2, 2014 1:22am May 2, 2014 1:22am
Quoting ruffryders
Morning, GU traders. I ran a scoring test to check the GBPUSD underlying fundumentals. Please see below. I see a strong case currently for GU to take on 7000 level soon. {image}
Also important to note, that currently retailers on major liquidity providers(FXCM, Saxobank) are 70-80% short, this is a contrarian signal that the currency will move higher yet.
  • #375,198
  • May 2, 2014 1:23am May 2, 2014 1:23am
Howzit GU!

Macro themes

UK
Economic expansion in the UK now prints at 3%, Carney has improved forward guidance to indicate that the jobs number is not a threshold for forward guidance and that he will continue to hold rates for an extended period (est mid 2015)

US
On-going signs of improvement to the broader economy has encouraged the Fed to continue Tapering its Bond buying program at a rate of 10B/month Mrs J has told us the US jobs number is not the key metric but a key metric and that she will continue to review a broad base of economic indicators to determine policy

Event Risk

NFP - Note the number has underperformed to date due to the weather () todays number is expected to signal a rebound - If it doesn't expect massive disappointment. Either way todays figure will attract a lot of interest and will be tone setting, if not trend changing as the market needs to see signs of firm improvement in the US economy to remain fully confident that the Fed is tapering for the right reasons.
  • #375,199
  • May 2, 2014 1:24am May 2, 2014 1:24am
Quoting ruffryders
Morning, GU traders. I ran a scoring test to check the GBPUSD underlying fundumentals. Please see below. I see a strong case currently for GU to take on 7000 level soon. {image}
  • #375,200
  • May 2, 2014 1:26am May 2, 2014 1:26am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote}
this just in. lets see what London boy bring us.
Quote
Pfizer Sweetens Cash and Stock Offer for AstraZeneca to 50 Pounds a Share
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