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Circular Trend-Waves 414 replies

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Circular Trendlines

  • #2,681
  • Mar 19, 2014 2:19pm Mar 19, 2014 2:19pm
EUR/USD Outlook

Buy opportunity anywhere from 3780-3815, with first target of 4030-4050 and final target of 4300
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  • #2,682
  • Mar 26, 2014 5:22am Mar 26, 2014 5:22am
Hi kambooj , I have been busy for a while , I just saw ur posts about EURUSD . I think this time we are heading south , and the target is 1,3810s in the middle of april. But the trend will have lots of ups and downs in my perspective despite the little distance to the target. The main reason is the circular support (red circle just below the price) which will not let the bears run comfortabally. And the whole down trend from 3950s to 1,3610s will be just the inhale of the market. Later the exhale can carry us up to unbelievable levels. Anyway , just to cut it short , I am among the bears and being on the opposite side with you makes me curious .

Take care ...

http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/6108/4zat.png

Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #2,683
  • Mar 26, 2014 8:23am Mar 26, 2014 8:23am
EUR/USD Outlook

A very likely possible 5th wave extension is in the making. They are one of the most treacherous and deceiving of all terminal impulse waves, in the fact that they often resemble turning around spots while hiding a surprise upward movement.

We are still awaiting a spike for the final turnaround, and we have not had it yet.

For now I am still bullish on this pair

The diagram below is a elliot wave perspective of the final move.
My wave A starts at 2745 on July 10 2013

Next few weeks will be interesting to see.
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  • #2,684
  • Mar 30, 2014 4:39pm Mar 30, 2014 4:39pm
see this link and chart I posted....We may have a failed or truncated five.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post7372369

Could suggest we may have topped..... I know we all wanted 1.43, but this is my current outlook
  • #2,685
  • Apr 2, 2014 5:34pm Apr 2, 2014 5:34pm
Turning strongly bearish today. Can we really hope to wait for 1.43 before starting the selling, or would it be best to sell on a scale from 1.4 upwards?
  • #2,686
  • Apr 4, 2014 8:34am Apr 4, 2014 8:34am
Quoting needpips
see this link and chart I posted....We may have a failed or truncated five. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post7372369 Could suggest we may have topped..... I know we all wanted 1.43, but this is my current outlook
Quoting Brassboy
Turning strongly bearish today. Can we really hope to wait for 1.43 before starting the selling, or would it be best to sell on a scale from 1.4 upwards?
EUR/USD Outlook
Needed to wait few more days before I reply to the above posts, but another the EUR/USD will be making another low at 3660 where a very good buy opportunity will be presented for a series of rises that will propel this pair to 4300 in the weeks to come.
The bounce off 3965 was not decisive enough to put this pair in a downtrend, and on the daily we hare having higher lows on a consistent basis. We could argue that we are in a terminal triangle situation on the daily chart, but from a behaviour perspective the rebound downwards is not resembling a breakout from a terminal triangle. So I have to still assume that we are in a series of retracements for a higher high. The lack of a decisive spike upwards on the daily chart is another reason for assuming that the trend has ended.
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  • #2,687
  • Apr 8, 2014 9:55am Apr 8, 2014 9:55am
EUR/USD Outlook

Movement is upwards, just until its slightly short of 3900, next week we will hit 3900, but not yet. Chart below shows the buy zone, that is to be materialized again by end of this week or early next week. Currently if you are on a buy exit at 3850 to be on the safe side.
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  • #2,688
  • Apr 8, 2014 2:47pm Apr 8, 2014 2:47pm
EUR Update

Here is what I believe is happening:

We most probably have a contracting Running Triangle where it continuously is making higher lows and as its doing that its slowly and slowly narrowing the price gap at its top.

I am picking this formation primarily because the "a" wave in a contracting triangle is the strongest one and the most violent one.
In the below diagram the "a" wave does exhibit these characteristics.

The reaction upwards will be a strong C wave that will eventually find ample resistance at 4300.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Daily.jpg Size: 136 KB
  • #2,689
  • Apr 11, 2014 8:04am Apr 11, 2014 8:04am
EUR/USD Outlook

The movement has barely been able to penetrate through 3900, but for now a retracement will begin that will find support either at 3810 or 3750 at the max, because the thrust from 3670 has shown quite a lot of impulsive behaviour.

One of the primary behaviours is a 23.6 fibonacci retracement on the smaller subwaves on the rise from 3670.

For now the main buy region remains the lows of 3800 with the preparation of a strong thrust that will go to the 4050 level
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,690
  • Apr 11, 2014 11:43pm Apr 11, 2014 11:43pm
Quoting Kambooj
EUR/USD Outlook The movement has barely been able to penetrate through 3900, but for now a retracement will begin that will find support either at 3810 or 3750 at the max, because the thrust from 3670 has shown quite a lot of impulsive behaviour. One of the primary behaviours is a 23.6 fibonacci retracement on the smaller subwaves on the rise from 3670. For now the main buy region remains the lows of 3800 with the preparation of a strong thrust that will go to the 4050 level {image}
I have 1.4070 area as well, but not sure if it will retrace to the 1.38 region before or after it moves to the 1.4070 area..... my take is it goes higher first then to around 1.38 region.....
  • #2,691
  • Edited 8:03pm Apr 12, 2014 7:41pm | Edited 8:03pm
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  • #2,692
  • Apr 14, 2014 10:02am Apr 14, 2014 10:02am
Quoting needpips
{image}
Thanks for sharing this diagram,

Right now 3750-3820 zone is a good place to buy for a thrust to go to at least, as you have mentioned, 4070.

here are my remarks on the chart.
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  • #2,693
  • Apr 21, 2014 5:49am Apr 21, 2014 5:49am
Quoting Kambooj
EUR/USD Outlook The movement has barely been able to penetrate through 3900, but for now a retracement will begin that will find support either at 3810 or 3750 at the max, because the thrust from 3670 has shown quite a lot of impulsive behaviour. One of the primary behaviours is a 23.6 fibonacci retracement on the smaller subwaves on the rise from 3670. For now the main buy region remains the lows of 3800 with the preparation of a strong thrust that will go to the 4050 level {image}
Kambooj, great chart and analysis, good business as usual. Good to read your contrarian review on majors.

I also have a a mostly bullish view on EUR USD currently, however there is still opportunity for the EU bears to take it down.
Currently EUR USD is setting up for a major breakout, which should happen next 3-8 days. (range compression, low volatility).
  • #2,694
  • Apr 21, 2014 8:11am Apr 21, 2014 8:11am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} Kambooj, great chart and analysis, good business as usual. Good to read your contrarian review on majors. I also have a a mostly bullish view on EUR USD currently, however there is still opportunity for the EU bears to take it down. Currently EUR USD is setting up for a major breakout, which should happen next 3-8 days. (range compression, low volatility).
Thanks for your comments on this thread,
I am in agreement with your view, and keeping an eye for the breakout.
All I can say at this point is to buy anywhere in between 3750 and 3820 for a good size breakout of at least 200-250 pips
  • #2,695
  • Apr 22, 2014 6:48am Apr 22, 2014 6:48am
Quoting Kambooj
{quote} Thanks for your comments on this thread, I am in agreement with your view, and keeping an eye for the breakout. All I can say at this point is to buy anywhere in between 3750 and 3820 for a good size breakout of at least 200-250 pips
Kambooj, maybe you can also post your review on GBP USD. I don't see much resistance until 7150-7250 on HTF charts.
Will hold for 7200 longer-term.
  • #2,696
  • Apr 22, 2014 9:10am Apr 22, 2014 9:10am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} Kambooj, maybe you can also post your review on GBP USD. I don't see much resistance until 7150-7250 on HTF charts. Will hold for 7200 longer-term.
Will do it sometime tomorrow.
For now as you have mentioned we are just setting ourselves for a break upwards, as to when this break should be I suspect it would be within the next 24 hours or so.

From past experience Usually close to moon cycles the EUR movement starts to amplify a bit more. Today is the third quarter of the moon, we havent seen any significant moves so far, but should see something soon.

Will post charts later in the day, right now its too early to make a forecast.
  • #2,697
  • Apr 23, 2014 3:22am Apr 23, 2014 3:22am
EUR USD D1 update.


Looks like we are starting to see some reaction from TL + CIRCLE support confluence, EUR USD @ 3840, looks like we will get gap fill today and then off it goes for 4040.
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  • #2,698
  • Apr 23, 2014 3:29am Apr 23, 2014 3:29am
Quoting needpips
see this link and chart I posted....We may have a failed or truncated five. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post7372369 Could suggest we may have topped..... I know we all wanted 1.43, but this is my current outlook
4040 first and then quite possible 4200-4300 is ON on EUR USD now.
  • #2,699
  • Apr 23, 2014 4:02am Apr 23, 2014 4:02am
Quoting ruffryders
EUR USD D1 update. Looks like we are starting to see some reaction from TL + CIRCLE support confluence, EUR USD @ 3840, looks like we will get gap fill today and then off it goes for 4040. {image}

MMM Nice clear chart.. even I understand..
  • #2,700
  • Apr 23, 2014 4:42pm Apr 23, 2014 4:42pm
EUR/USD Outlook

Here is the current outlook with most probable behaviour being a rangebound motion within a rectangular region, before a breakout happens.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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