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  • #891,261
  • Apr 20, 2014 11:53am Apr 20, 2014 11:53am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} re: bold text - I'm just going to pretend you didn't say this, so we can continue a quite interesting discussion (silly comment btw, probably accidental) the graph being inverted has nothing to do with it. I could flip it upside down if it benefits you... Either way, on the original point, there is no credit risk in the EZ. While most things are considered as strong as their weakest link, the euro zone is in an odd peculiarity... its as weak as its strongest point. The problem is not with the credit risk, its about the credit transmission...

Im sorry, was there a period of extreme volatility in 6 month us rates during 2010- q1 2013 that i missed?

can you even give an in depth explanation of what cross currency basis measures?
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #891,262
  • Apr 20, 2014 11:54am Apr 20, 2014 11:54am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} no assumptions anywhere, purely an observation of facts I have bared witness too. re: bold - A monkey can trade technicals, hell even a computer can... but they cannot trade fundamentals. In the city, one is not valued on their ability to follow some simple instructions as per a technical strategy. A person is valued on their ability to gauge the bigger picture, understand why things happen and then react accordingly. I'm sorry if you do not see this, but it is a fact of the industry.



how long have you worked in the industry bro?
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #891,263
  • Apr 20, 2014 11:58am Apr 20, 2014 11:58am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} Im sorry, was there a period of extreme volatility in 6 month us rates during 2010- q1 2013 that i missed? can you even give an in depth explanation of what cross currency basis measures?
yes, there is a period of volatility you are missing as shown below with the UST 6 month swap spread

this should help with a basic understanding - http://www.microrate.com/media/docs/...ency-Swaps.pdf

also this - http://cib.natixis.com/flushdoc.aspx?id=45725
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6mon UST.png Size: 143 KB
  • #891,264
  • Apr 20, 2014 12:01pm Apr 20, 2014 12:01pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} It's a fact in your limited scope. Wait until you other nut drops before you come out to play with the big boys, ace. There's a lotta learning you have left to be done.
explain where I am wrong then? instead of insulting me, try and help me see where I am wrong. please.

I trust you are one of these big boys then? that is why you hang out on a forum.
I never claim to be a "big boy", yet my learning comes from what we would I'm sure consider "big boys" having worked alongside many traders and strategists at multiple buy and sell side firms... but they are probably wrong anyway
  • #891,265
  • Apr 20, 2014 12:04pm Apr 20, 2014 12:04pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} explain where I am wrong then? instead of insulting me, try and help me see where I am wrong. please. I trust you are one of these big boys then? that is why you hang out on a forum. I never claim to be a "big boy", yet my learning comes from what we would I'm sure consider "big boys" having worked alongside many traders and strategists at multiple buy and sell side firms... but they are probably wrong anyway

Dude your twitter says your 18.... Im not going to harp on it because one of the things i hated when i first started on the street was older guys blowing me off because i was young.


either way, you gotta be more humble.

happy easter
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #891,266
  • Apr 20, 2014 12:06pm Apr 20, 2014 12:06pm
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} Dude your twitter says your 18.... Im not going to harp on it because one of the things i hated when i first started on the street was older guys blowing me off because i was young. either way, you gotta be more humble. happy easter
I am 18... that doesn't change anything. It doesn't change the banks I've worked with, it doesn't change the knowledge I've acquired, and nor should it.
  • #891,267
  • Apr 20, 2014 12:07pm Apr 20, 2014 12:07pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} explain where I am wrong then? instead of insulting me, try and help me see where I am wrong. please. I trust you are one of these big boys then? that is why you hang out on a forum. I never claim to be a "big boy", yet my learning comes from what we would I'm sure consider "big boys" having worked alongside many traders and strategists at multiple buy and sell side firms... but they are probably wrong anyway
You boast about your Large account...that you never funded with a day of work.

You boast about needing fundamentals to trade off of news feeds and information that your father feeds you...because you simply cannot afford to support this yourself.

All of this and you cannot provide anything that resembles an actual position with merit.

Where are you wrong?

You've never been on this side of "RIGHT"...

All you have is a peacock attitude based on being born with a silver spoon in your mouth.

Take away all of your fancy little tools, your supposed account and drop to an actual chart and give the actual techs a shot.

Coin toss positions based on bullshit and holding a position until it is green is a methodology, but not something anybody should consider as trading.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #891,268
  • Apr 20, 2014 12:09pm Apr 20, 2014 12:09pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} I am 18... that doesn't change anything. It doesn't change the banks I've worked with, it doesn't change the knowledge I've acquired, and nor should it.
All 18 year olds say the same thing.

lol
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #891,269
  • Apr 20, 2014 12:10pm Apr 20, 2014 12:10pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} You boast about your Large account...that you never funded with a day of work. You boast about needing fundamentals to trade off of news feeds and information that your father feeds you...because you simply cannot afford to support this yourself. All of this and you cannot provide anything that resembles an actual position with merit. Where are you wrong? You've never been on this side of "RIGHT"... All you have is a peacock attitude based on being born with a silver spoon in your mouth. Take away all of your fancy little tools, your supposed...
what?

please be more informed next time you try to insult someone. (plus what is the point?)

jealousy is cruel, try and see past it.
  • #891,270
  • Edited 1:10pm Apr 20, 2014 12:12pm | Edited 1:10pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Marianne For new member your post shows great maturity and critical thinking. Keep it up. I have posted great deal on fundamentals here. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=479728 regards
Hi Davit! Thanks. I am new in this forum but have been trading forex and stock market for many years. I have also been active in the realestate buisness both in Norway and abroad.
Missing forums for forex trading in Norway som this brought me to this forum.

Killer Whale! The employment rate increased from 5 to 10% in the USA and I think it is back to 6,75% while in Europe it was 7% which increases to 12% and it still has not come down at all. It is still topping.
  • #891,271
  • Apr 20, 2014 12:26pm Apr 20, 2014 12:26pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Are you saying that people born with silver spoons in their mouths aren't smart enough to trade technicals? Or are you just assuming that everybody with a large account only trades fundamentals? Either way, it is a blind sweeping statement...doesn't make you look smart... You are the same pretentious little prick as always. Grow up.
Paris Hilton has a golden spoon in her mouth when she was born, but she is not smart enough to trade either technicals or fundamentals. Yeah she is good enough to party around.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #891,272
  • Apr 20, 2014 12:28pm Apr 20, 2014 12:28pm
what are the things that drive the euro up?? crack down those fucking things that drive euro up.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #891,273
  • Apr 20, 2014 12:30pm Apr 20, 2014 12:30pm
Quoting ffleo
what are the things that drive the euro up?? crack down those fucking things that drive euro up.
if ECB cannot identify those things that drive euro up. break up the ECB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #891,274
  • Apr 20, 2014 12:32pm Apr 20, 2014 12:32pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} if ECB cannot identify those things that drive euro up. break up the ECB
If your car has engine problem, you do not need to fix tire. fix that fuck engine.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #891,275
  • Apr 20, 2014 12:34pm Apr 20, 2014 12:34pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} If your car has engine problem, you do not need to fix tire. fix that fuck engine.
ok, my car has no engine and tire problem. I am heading off to easter meeting.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #891,276
  • Apr 20, 2014 12:58pm Apr 20, 2014 12:58pm
Right i'm a tech guy - but keep an eye on the fundies. After all, it's cool to know/speculate on why shit happens (incidentally 'shit happens' wonderfully sums up trading, and is the philosophy to take in order to be successful in my humble opinion).

1.40 - political level. I have an initial target of 1.41. But i think EUR/USD could go exploring north for a little while.

Right FUNDIES. Just been thinking/reading. Lots of capital flows into the Euro - lots of European countries now have trade surpluses after reforms so more Euro buying than Dollar demand. Also investor demand has come back to the bonds of peripheral countries as indicated by falls in bond spreads, no doubt fuelled by investors' loss of sanity in their desperate search for yield. Greece at 5%? Hmm. New Zealand at 4.5% anyone? (Yes please). This is no doubt linked to outflow of USD from places like China and Russia, as well as the repratriation of EUR assets by european banks still reversing significant USD holdings. These flows are likely to continue.

Now the coveted ECB monetary easing. ECB will wanna see some more inflation figures first - so a june implementation at the earliest?
But if the ECB does go ahead with QE, will it work? QE in the US did not weaken the USD as much as hoped. GBP was strengthening before the end of the BoE's gilt buying process. The BoJ's programme has succeeded in weakening the Yen. If ECB QE is to weaken the Euro, it probably has to be larger than the Fed's QE programme.

In order for the Euro to weaken then money managers need to actively sell it. Where else they gonna send reserves to? The commodity currencies and GBP can appreciate against the Euro but as China (second largest economy) doesn't have a convertible currency diversification away from the USD often ends up back in Euros.

Draghi may implement a programme which won't work then try something more aggressive as seconds.
It'll be alright on the night
  • #891,277
  • Apr 20, 2014 1:13pm Apr 20, 2014 1:13pm
Quoting Magix
{quote}You boast about needing fundamentals to trade off of news feeds and information that your father feeds you...
He is a nice kid, but he pretends to be someone he is not ... personally, i think most if not all his Macro views, are second copies of an investment bank report! I'm completely surprised to read now, he seems potential QE and Negative interest rates to aid the Euro rally; Euro @ 1.39. ( If i'm not mistaken, he kept on repeating Goldman Sachs interest rate differential as a basis to short sell the Euro; Euro @ 1.36)
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #891,278
  • Apr 20, 2014 1:16pm Apr 20, 2014 1:16pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} He is a nice kid, but he pretends to be someone he is not ... personally, i think most if not all his Macro views, are second copies of an investment bank report! I'm completely surprised to read now, he seems potential QE and Negative interest rates to aid the Euro rally. ( If i'm not mistaken, he kept on repeating Goldman Sachs interest rate differential as a basis to short sell the Euro)
On 1st bold - nope, I just think it will be less bearish than everyone else thinks (this goes against all the macro thoughts that banks put out, this is a very anti-consensus thought, infact, my views (as per my blog) are very different from many sell side analysis)

2nd point - interest rate differential is vague, also Goldman aren't even famous for this chart. But no, I'm not short the EURUSD based on this. one would hedge EURUSD exposure with interest rate spreads.

EDIT, for first point, see this thread which sums up a lot of sell side thoughts on ECB - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=480739
  • #891,279
  • Apr 20, 2014 1:19pm Apr 20, 2014 1:19pm
We are abouth to reach sell in may and go away in the stock market.

Back to safe heaven currency USD
  • #891,280
  • Apr 20, 2014 1:23pm Apr 20, 2014 1:23pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} EDIT, for first point, see this thread which sums up a lot of sell side thoughts on ECB - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=480739
My point exactly, January February March 2014 you were on the selling side, i do not even remember one day you calling Euro Long position this year. ( The only one i remember was the option volatility arbitrage, which was a great trade) Now, suddenly in April you dramatically flipped on the other side ... I mean no offense, but this shows your thoughts pattern are not developing on their own, but an adaption to someone's else ideas?!

True?!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
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