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  • #891,221
  • Apr 20, 2014 7:06am Apr 20, 2014 7:06am
Quoting godim
{quote} But every other central bank can too?
For this there is an agreement in the G7 and G20
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #891,222
  • Apr 20, 2014 7:26am Apr 20, 2014 7:26am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} I don't think the ECB can meaningfully do anything to weaken the EUR. What measures do you think that they could use?
1.Join all EZ banks under single banking system (fractional reserve) and start printing EUR
2.Print EUR in "raffals" like it did on Greece problems (500 bil)
3.Rate cut to negative rate
  • #891,223
  • Apr 20, 2014 7:35am Apr 20, 2014 7:35am
Correct me if I'm wrong but CB rates are the most influential fundamental actors on the currencies prices .. If ECB lowers the rate from 0.25 to 0 that would probably stabilize the flow. At the same time the low inflation in EU would rise a little and economy would get a boost from cheap lending ..
Don’t ever let someone tell you that you can’t do something.
  • #891,224
  • Apr 20, 2014 7:39am Apr 20, 2014 7:39am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} I don't think the ECB can meaningfully do anything to weaken the EUR. What measures do you think that they could use?
The Governing Council of the ECB has unanimously agreed on deploying unconventional measures namely QE but only after further rate cuts, bank financing, OMT etc. That type of discourse hasn't been heard in the past so it is quite significant, while it might not tackle the problems of inflation itself (for which they are mandated) it will surely devalue the currency. However, you still need the technicals to figure out where to get in.
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  • #891,225
  • Apr 20, 2014 7:47am Apr 20, 2014 7:47am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} 1.Join all EZ banks under single banking system (fractional reserve) and start printing EUR 2.Print EUR in "raffals" like it did on Greece problems (500 bil) 3.Rate cut to negative rate
1.) pretty much already happens...
2.) I assume you mean QE? QE will tighten risk premium, steady the ship and only push the EUR higher
3.) negative depo rate won't weaken EUR (read middle of this - http://macrocreditfx.blogspot.co.uk/...-strategy.html)
  • #891,226
  • Apr 20, 2014 7:48am Apr 20, 2014 7:48am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} The Governing Council of the ECB has unanimously agreed on deploying unconventional measures namely QE but only after further rate cuts, bank financing, OMT etc. That type of discourse hasn't been heard in the past so it is quite significant, while it might not tackle the problems of inflation itself (for which they are mandated) it will surely devalue the currency. However, you still need the technicals to figure out where to get in.
explain how then?

(protip - good chance it doesn't)
  • #891,227
  • Apr 20, 2014 7:58am Apr 20, 2014 7:58am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} explain how then? (protip - good chance it doesn't)
Explain how to what? In forex you can only act on a probability, QE might happen, might not, price can go to 1.44 or to 1.10.
I only trade what I see. For me the technicals override the fundamentals all the way and by a long margin, so when in doubt I will always follow my plan regardless of what people are saying, I agree when you say probably won't happen and it's something I keep in the back of my mind, the possibility of being wrong. I applied the same reasoning when traded USDJPY where everyone anticipated divergent monetary policies would lead to dollar appreciation and so far it only dropped. You can have a look at my previous posts if you like.
Cheers.
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  • #891,228
  • Apr 20, 2014 8:09am Apr 20, 2014 8:09am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} Explain how to what? In forex you can only act on a probability, QE might happen, might not, price can go to 1.44 or to 1.10. I only trade what I see. For me the technicals override the fundamentals all the way and by a long margin, so when in doubt I will always follow my plan regardless of what people are saying, I agree when you say probably won't happen and it's something I keep in the back of my mind, the possibility of being wrong. I applied the same reasoning when traded USDJPY where everyone anticipated divergent monetary policies...
explain how QE weakens the EUR...

re; USDJPY - So the 35% move higher isn't at all to do with divergent monetary policy. ok.

I feel sorry for you that you seem to genuinely believe techs outweigh fundamentals...
  • #891,229
  • Apr 20, 2014 8:20am Apr 20, 2014 8:20am
I will only engage in constructive argument.
The way QE might weaken the EUR is by the same method as with other Central Banks injecting liquidity into the Banking system.
My point is: When possible you align both techs and fundamentals, sometimes it's not possible because you don't know how long will it take for the fundamental to play out while the tech is already showing a trade.
We all have our own method (hopefully) and there is no need to feel sorry.
Have a good day.



We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #891,230
  • Apr 20, 2014 8:33am Apr 20, 2014 8:33am
Quoting pedro319
I will only engage in constructive argument. The way QE might weaken the EUR is by the same method as with other Central Banks injecting liquidity into the Banking system. My point is: When possible you align both techs and fundamentals, sometimes it's not possible because you don't know how long will it take for the fundamental to play out while the tech is already showing a trade. We all have our own method (hopefully) and there is no need to feel sorry. Have a good day.

this doesn't explain WHY or HOW?
  • #891,231
  • Apr 20, 2014 9:14am Apr 20, 2014 9:14am
[quote=MarianneOslo;7416602]{quote} It will do something. This is for sure. The big money is in the trend not the few pips. It is patience. I belive in the trend and the trend is down due to ECB. They will react and this is what the market is testing when will they react. The question is when they will react. The french industry minister said few days ago that the euro is too high and asked for a meeting after easter. Europe is still in big trouble still with an unemployment of 12%. [/quote]

Unemployment has always been higher in Europe than in US.
That's just a historical fact..

I guess people from Europe are just lazier (me included)
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  • #891,232
  • Apr 20, 2014 9:17am Apr 20, 2014 9:17am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} this doesn't explain WHY or HOW?
Ok. So the ECB mandate is mainly about price stability and control of inflation, they have a series of monetary policies available to achieve their goals. They can cut rates, stop sterilising bonds purchases,develop programmes to lend to SME's amongst other tools, if nothing works then they could resort to QE with all the difficulties that this implies even in terms of execution and legality. Now in terms of the ECB's rethoric, just the fact that in the past, adoption of QE was seen as almost impossible and now it's a strong possibility changes things. if investors don't see the bank doing anything to tackle inflation, surely the exchange will go higher. The question now is when will they give a clear signal they are ready to act and not just talk the currency down .Mr Draghi’s increasing emphasis on the exchange rate as a key component in the ECB’s assessment of medium-term inflation makes it far less likely that the euro will be allowed to rise further without running into a policy response from the ECB.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #891,233
  • Apr 20, 2014 9:19am Apr 20, 2014 9:19am
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} It will do something. This is for sure. The big money is in the trend not the few pips. It is patience. I belive in the trend and the trend is down due to ECB. They will react and this is what the market is testing when will they react. The question is when they will react. The french industry minister said few days ago that the euro is too high and asked for a meeting after easter. Europe is still in big trouble still with an unemployment of 12%. Unemployment has always been higher in Europe than in US. That's just a historical fact.. I...
true - Low U/E in EZ is considered ~7%, which is considered uncomfortably high for the US/UK
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  • #891,234
  • Apr 20, 2014 9:22am Apr 20, 2014 9:22am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} Ok. So the ECB mandate is mainly about price stability and control of inflation, they have a series of monetary policies available to achieve their goals. They can cut rates, stop sterilising bonds purchases,develop programmes to lend to SME's amongst other tools, if nothing works then they could resort to QE with all the difficulties that this implies even in terms of execution and legality. Now in terms of the ECB's rethoric, just the fact that in the past, adoption of QE was seen as almost impossible and now it's a strong possibility...
urghh... please try again...

this doesn't explain at all, why you think an easing program from the ECB (techincally will be a credit easing, not quantitative easing) will lead to a weaker EUR?

My problem here is not personal against your claims, it is a problem that near everyone has. Someone states something, and then without their own thought people just regurgitate the statement without knowing WHY!

So, WHY/HOW will the ECB undertaking a CE/QE program lead to a weaker EUR fx rate?
  • #891,235
  • Apr 20, 2014 9:43am Apr 20, 2014 9:43am
April 20, 2014 12:21 pm GMT
Russia blames Ukraine for breaking accord

Russia on Sunday accused the Ukrainian government of failing to implement Thursday’s Geneva accord, claiming there had been an attack on civilians in eastern Ukraine by nationalist fighters.
Ukraine’s interior ministry said one person had been killed and three injured by gunfire in the eastern Ukrainian town of Slavyansk during the early hours of Easter Sunday.
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  • #891,236
  • Apr 20, 2014 9:43am Apr 20, 2014 9:43am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} explain how QE weakens the EUR... re; USDJPY - So the 35% move higher isn't at all to do with divergent monetary policy. ok. I feel sorry for you that you seem to genuinely believe techs outweigh fundamentals...
For most day traders the technical picture is the only thing that concerns them. When I am picking off 20-100 pip trades, I buy and sell according to information given to me by my charts generated by my methodology. I pay zero attention to what may or may not be happening outside of my own office space, and steer clear of entering new positions only when important economic data is about to be released which is likely to affect the pair/s I am trading or when a key figure such as the Fed chairman is about to speak. So for me, the technical picture not only outweighs the fundamental one, it completely eclipses it, it does not figure in my trading at all. So do not feel sorry for me- I have been doing this for many years and aim to do it for many more.
  • #891,237
  • Apr 20, 2014 9:52am Apr 20, 2014 9:52am
I often think this tech vs fund argument simply comes down to deployment of capital.

if you dont have 50k+ in your account to take those massive swings when the fundamentals really line up, then you never really see the upside of trading fundamentals.


most retail traders just dont have enough capital in their accounts to realize the gains. they have a few grand in their account and the sizes of their positions dont vary widely.
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  • #891,238
  • Apr 20, 2014 9:56am Apr 20, 2014 9:56am
Quoting Citiboy
I often think this tech vs fund argument simply comes down to deployment of capital. if you dont have 50k+ in your account to take those massive swings when the fundamentals really line up, then you never really see the upside of trading fundamentals. most retail traders just dont have enough capital in their accounts to realize the gains. they have a few grand in their account and the sizes of their positions dont vary widely.
is it a coincidence that people with large accounts trade using fundamentals?

Do they trade fundamentals because of the large account size?

or,

Do they have a large account because they trade fundamentals?
  • #891,239
  • Apr 20, 2014 9:59am Apr 20, 2014 9:59am
In my opinion, you can't "trade" fundamentals at all.

As I said, in my opinion.
  • #891,240
  • Apr 20, 2014 10:03am Apr 20, 2014 10:03am
Quoting Didgeridoo
In my opinion, you can't "trade" fundamentals at all. As I said, in my opinion.
Like I said before
This whole Business is dependent on Fundies & Data release, If u can understand & get this correct u have almost made it, Use Technicals for Entry & Exit Only
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
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