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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #372,181
  • Apr 16, 2014 11:09am Apr 16, 2014 11:09am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} thread is 90% short. Expected pushback. I'll do fine being in the 10% who's LONG GU now.
GBNZ looks like a safe entry short
  • #372,182
  • Apr 16, 2014 11:13am Apr 16, 2014 11:13am
Quoting shon9178
Look guys,unless there is another crisis on hand like back in 2008-2009, it's USD will fight back to reclaim their territory. so those who is betting on long really needs to think twice and look at how the hot money is flowing. Do you really think the US will kill themselves one more time only after less than a decade? only a fool would think the USD is weak. they still dominate the electronic digital money market. which is possibly 99% of the whole FX market revenue itself. Think twice. It will drop soon. It will not shoot up beyongd 1.70 because...
see my post about the yield spreads. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...70#post7410970
USD is already DS in terms of yields.
  • #372,183
  • Apr 16, 2014 11:37am Apr 16, 2014 11:37am
observe how usd react due to news data release,,,even with the us solid data recently, dollar can't spike up against other currency,,,look at GU now, it's on resistance area and same happened with eu,,,what if us data release was red? i believe we are in 1.70 right now
  • #372,184
  • Apr 16, 2014 11:51am Apr 16, 2014 11:51am
Quoting ps3
observe how usd react due to news data release,,,even with the us solid data recently, dollar can't spike up against other currency,,,look at GU now, it's on resistance area and same happened with eu,,,what if us data release was red? i believe we are in 1.70 right now
aweman, guess your somewhat right. yellen is doing is really shite job.
if h1 gdpusd continues to support above 1.681xx then it would go above 1.7xx
but until then i will stay aside until it falls to 1.6756x
  • #372,185
  • Apr 16, 2014 12:40pm Apr 16, 2014 12:40pm
Quoting JimmyC
Where the Atari traders with lightening reflexes on the M5 charts? GU 30M Setup - don't say I didn't give you time {image}
Trade not entered pattern void, suggest a bull flag... Funny that
  • #372,186
  • Apr 16, 2014 12:51pm Apr 16, 2014 12:51pm
Can't Wait GBP/USD Fly to the moon(1.7xxx)
I still Bullish on GBP
I don't see a bearish signal here
I'll Prepare my Bullet for the next Step
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Tdk ada yang salah dengan seekor Gagak. Dibandingkan burung yang terkurung
  • #372,187
  • Apr 16, 2014 1:05pm Apr 16, 2014 1:05pm
My 2c on EU short term outlook - the present setup is bearish in nature if the body of this candle was pushing toward 1.385 and was followed by another positive candle it would convince me that the uptrend reversal might be in danger but for now my view that the pattern speaks to bearish continuation.

Reversal signal with gap down (window - still open)
Day 3 spinning top is almost reversed but is now failing into a spinning top with a long upper wick....

Window = Acceleration gap -> unusual in Euro

Resistance @ 1.3864 indicated by Doji star lower wick is going to be like a brick wall to get through (strong change in fundaments will be required)
Events (peace in Ukraine) mmmm no, perhaps this... Monetary Policy Easing by the ECB, nope they're going to do this but that weakens the currency? Increase rates in the EU area... Nope

We need a US rates increase.... This is a distant possibility

No technical pattern presently valid

This remains an S/R trade driven by events with a bearish bias in the immediate term..

Just my 2c
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  • #372,188
  • Apr 16, 2014 1:10pm Apr 16, 2014 1:10pm
Quoting JimmyC
My 2c on EU short term outlook - the present setup is bearish in nature if the body of this candle was pushing toward 1.385 and was followed by another positive candle it would convince me that the uptrend reversal might be in danger but for now my view that the pattern speaks to bearish continuation. Reversal signal with gap down (window - still open) Day 3 spinning top is almost reversed but is now failing into a spinning top with a long upper wick.... Window = Acceleration gap -> unusual in Euro Resistance @ 1.3864 indicated by Doji star lower...
rate increase is off the books for a while bro. That's why the yield spread is relevant for determining future direction of GU.
Here's the part from old biarches conference
Quote
Yellen also stated that the Committee is considering low rates for a long period of time

As to the EU. You did not say that current price is above 50% of the white marubozu candle (strong close last week). So nothing bearish on EU as of yet.
  • #372,189
  • Apr 16, 2014 1:20pm Apr 16, 2014 1:20pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} You really think so? We've had scores of green "data" on US and nothing (much) but one green number on GBP and boom! I'm wondering if that GBP unemployment data could see this break 6820 this week if not today? With all the talking heads this week on US, I'll wait it out me thinks. To be clear, I know next to nothing about fundies....yet...

totally agreed with you...
Patience, let the market come to you!
  • #372,190
  • Apr 16, 2014 1:22pm Apr 16, 2014 1:22pm
Quoting JimmyC
My 2c on EU short term outlook - the present setup is bearish in nature if the body of this candle was pushing toward 1.385 and was followed by another positive candle it would convince me that the uptrend reversal might be in danger but for now my view that the pattern speaks to bearish continuation. Reversal signal with gap down (window - still open) Day 3 spinning top is almost reversed but is now failing into a spinning top with a long upper wick.... Window = Acceleration gap -> unusual in Euro Resistance @ 1.3864 indicated by Doji star lower...
Hi Jimmy, you're a very good poster ever i see..
Always like your trading style..
Regards
Tdk ada yang salah dengan seekor Gagak. Dibandingkan burung yang terkurung
  • #372,191
  • Apr 16, 2014 1:36pm Apr 16, 2014 1:36pm
cable currently hovering about the resistance.. this is bullish if candle closed this way.. if exhaustion in this area, i will load short.. need a candle or 2 in daily to justify this, me think.. monthly is hanging man.. ermmm..

seen no continuation atm..
  • #372,192
  • Apr 16, 2014 1:39pm Apr 16, 2014 1:39pm
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} rate increase is off the books for a while bro. That's why the yield spread is relevant for determining future direction of GU. Here's the part from old biarches conference {quote} As to the EU. You did not say that current price is above 50% of the white marubozu candle (strong close last week). So nothing bearish on EU as of yet.
1 That's what I said - goes for the quote too

2 Read short term ... like rest of this week and maybe next - i.e choppy sideways price action

3 1.4 - will appear briefly and would be a catalyst for ECB intervention

I'm afraid that cable divorced fibre a while back and the case for continued strong sterling is now materially different. Its not in tune with the local economy - its in tune with London remaining the largest strongest financial centre. With multiple companies representing their listings in London... The trade flow case is weaker (for now) the financial case hasn't gone away...
  • #372,193
  • Apr 16, 2014 1:41pm Apr 16, 2014 1:41pm
Quoting Harlen
{quote} Hi Jimmy, you're a very good poster ever i see.. Always like your trading style.. Regards
nice of you to say so, . we're all students with different opinions, if we weren't the market would be perfect and we wouldn't make money
  • #372,194
  • Apr 16, 2014 1:45pm Apr 16, 2014 1:45pm
from VSA point of view, currently more volume in the 4h doji than the long bullish candle... distribution taking place?
  • #372,195
  • Apr 16, 2014 1:45pm Apr 16, 2014 1:45pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} 1 That's what I said - goes for the quote too 2 Read short term ... like rest of this week and maybe next - i.e choppy sideways price action 3 1.4 - will appear briefly and would be a catalyst for ECB intervention I'm afraid that cable divorced fibre a while back and the case for continued strong sterling is now materially different. Its not in tune with the local economy - its in tune with London remaining the largest strongest financial centre. With multiple companies representing their listings in London... The trade flow case is weaker...
Jimmy, I agree that EU is not going to tell the direction of GU. On EU while I do see a plausible case for ECB interventions, I have a hard time seeing that structured that fast, all EU institutions are bureaucratic and to strike a deal will take time. I see possible action from ECB, however EU can print 4300-4400 by that time.

Also W1 possible non-ideal ratio harmonic pattern could be in the play still. The target here is 4400-4500. Let's see what give.

For the record, I don't have any positions open on EU.
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  • #372,196
  • Apr 16, 2014 1:51pm Apr 16, 2014 1:51pm
Quoting A-speculator
from VSA point of view, currently more volume in the 4h doji than the long bullish candle... distribution taking place?
spec I won't be paying too much attention, since all the trading is on very thin volumes this easter week. Next week will be telling in terms of direction.
  • #372,197
  • Apr 16, 2014 1:57pm Apr 16, 2014 1:57pm
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} spec I won't be paying too much attention, since all the trading is on very thin volumes this easter week. Next week will be telling in terms of direction.
maybe so... there's always a reason behind something right? this time its due to holiday.. whatever the reason is, ranging at top of the range is not likely the resistance will break..

i'll watch the PA closely.. i think you're right that maybe next week we will have enough candle to determine the reason(s)..
  • #372,198
  • Apr 16, 2014 1:58pm Apr 16, 2014 1:58pm
EUR GBP M1 chart looks like already picked direction on GU. strong rejection @ psych level @ 8300. Aiming for 7700 area.
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  • #372,199
  • Apr 16, 2014 2:03pm Apr 16, 2014 2:03pm
Quoting ruffryders
EUR GBP M1 chart looks like already picked direction on GU. strong rejection @ psych level @ 8300. Aiming for 7700 area. {image}
this i totally agree with you..

but still can be three things - fiber depreciate and cable stagnant / cable appreciate and fiber stagnant / fiber depreciate faster than cable..

my view is more towards fiber depreciate faster than cable..
  • #372,200
  • Apr 16, 2014 2:05pm Apr 16, 2014 2:05pm
Quoting A-speculator
{quote} this i totally agree with you.. but still can be three things - fiber depreciate and cable stagnant / cable appreciate and fiber stagnant / fiber depreciate faster than cable..
currently decent W1 inverse correlation of GU and EGBP. And still going higher yet. So i'd take it as a good tell on GU price.
That + the yield curve of the dollar VS pound. That's sufficient already. Top this off with GUs trading above 6200-6600 key zone, any price action above that is controlled by bulls, until serious resistance is met. Not much resistance seen until 7000 at least.
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