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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #372,041
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:18am Apr 16, 2014 5:18am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} see my chart above as soon as the tecs hit an ema thats when to look to take profit gl
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short till it hits the ema
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  • #372,042
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:22am Apr 16, 2014 5:22am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Yep, let's look at daily, and the 4hr... I'm not ignoring that daily bearish pattern and breakout retest on both of the above mentioned time frames while we are at multi year resistance. {image} {image}
if i am trading that account, i have no idea on how to get out from those positions bro, really... seems like not a good idea to keep adding to the losing positions..

anyway, daily and 4h, as i mentioned at the start of asian session (after daily candle closed) is hammer right about the support on fiber, if hammer right at the support, it doesn't mean more bearish.. it means quite a rejection.. meaning buyers are entering the market..

regarding 4h, clearly 4h on cable has seen bullish movement by hard rejection about 6660 area and price then managed to closed above this long wick hammer high.. this also means bullish..

yes we are at the multi year resistance, but still considering today is just the third day of trading and this week is the second week of the month, i think might have a good chance of breakout to happen because the momentum happen today..

i'm not following you bro when you say daily bearish pattern and breakout retest of what price bro?
  • #372,043
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:23am Apr 16, 2014 5:23am
One thing for sure that price is telling us is that overall pound is bullish...price that's right - the leading indicator...the only one that counts and on monthly which is constructive whilst in a range at top....weekly - in an uptrend, and daily top of a range consolidation after an uptrend, this pairing is bullish...not bearish...no matter what pattern anyone has or what indicator read you have - price tells us this pairing is bullish on these time frames....this of course may change but right now this is the case. Price is king, not patterns or indicator reads.

best wishes.
it's all gone a bit........
  • #372,044
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:26am Apr 16, 2014 5:26am
ok, fine, but this time around there might not be coming back. could be a rough ride.
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  • #372,045
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:28am Apr 16, 2014 5:28am
Quoting A-speculator
{quote} if i am trading that account, i have no idea on how to get out from those positions bro, really... seems like not a good idea to keep adding to the losing positions.. anyway, daily and 4h, as i mentioned at the start of asian session (after daily candle closed) is hammer right about the support on fiber, if hammer right at the support, it doesn't mean more bearish.. it means quite a rejection.. meaning buyers are entering the market.. regarding 4h, clearly 4h on cable has seen bullish movement by hard rejection about 6660 area and price...
The bearish pattern is printed by me on the chart Specs using the triangle shapes tool.

How can you miss it???

We have travelled 2000 pips to smack into resistance with no significant corrective retrace on the weekly TF.
I seriously doubt we are just going to keep sailing on through from here, particularly when I see (and added onto my chart) the bearish daily pattern and the breakout retests on the daily and 4hr TF's.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #372,046
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:28am Apr 16, 2014 5:28am
Quoting petetong
One thing for sure that price is telling us is that overall pound is bullish...price that's right - the leading indicator...the only one that counts and on monthly which is constructive whilst in a range at top....weekly - in an uptrend, and daily top of a range consolidation after an uptrend, this pairing is bullish...not bearish...no matter what pattern anyone has or what indicator read you have - price tells us this pairing is bullish on these time frames....this of course may change but right now this is the case. Price is king, not patterns...
ok then go ahead and buy at this price. do you have the balls to do that. don't talk bullshit and stop advising people
  • #372,047
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:29am Apr 16, 2014 5:29am
Quoting ruffryders
ok, fine, but this time around there might not be coming back. could be a rough ride. {image}
Yeah, could be a "Ruff Ryde" down for some indeed
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #372,048
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:30am Apr 16, 2014 5:30am
it's an opinion not advice - this forum thread is full of opinions and some are even backed up with evidence....and no I don't buy at a high - that is stupid I buy low and sell high and in any event I am a short term trader on time frames below 1hr and I shorted at the resistance but this does not mean I am a long term bear or take an overall bearish view...for such a time horizon I just look at what price is telling me....and then see if the fundamentals are supporting it. To say that this pairing is not bearish on the time frames I mentioned is certainly not bullshit.

Quoting giveachance
{quote} ok then go ahead and buy at this price. do you have the balls to do that. don't talk bullshit and stop advising people
it's all gone a bit........
  • #372,049
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:31am Apr 16, 2014 5:31am
Quoting petetong
One thing for sure that price is telling us is that overall pound is bullish...price that's right - the leading indicator...the only one that counts and on monthly which is constructive whilst in a range at top....weekly - in an uptrend, and daily top of a range consolidation after an uptrend, this pairing is bullish...not bearish...no matter what pattern anyone has or what indicator read you have - price tells us this pairing is bullish on these time frames....this of course may change but right now this is the case. Price is king, not patterns...
yeah, but pattern (price) reading need some time to acquire the skills.. not easy though.. might need few years of consistent trading experience..

i agree that basic technical analysis is sufficient in trading. indicators are meant for confirmation not trading decisions. imho.
  • #372,050
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:32am Apr 16, 2014 5:32am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Yeah, could be a "Ruff Ryde" down for some indeed

he is already butchered on his kiwi longs and now its high time he gets butchered on his gbp longs
  • #372,051
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:33am Apr 16, 2014 5:33am
This is how I see it on the 1hr..

Keep short. Add as we go. Till they meet. Then out. Could be totally wrong, off course, of course

Regards
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  • #372,052
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:34am Apr 16, 2014 5:34am
ok. I am short @1.6786 and prepared to ride it till 1.69 if it comes. lets see if the markets test that price
  • #372,053
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:37am Apr 16, 2014 5:37am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Yeah, could be a "Ruff Ryde" down for some indeed
For GU to drop, you need ECB interventions and QE, which is still in the making and won't be announced until later in Q2 2014, ECB is as bureaucratic as the politbureau.

By that time EU can print above 4200-4400, so I won't bet money on GU going down.

As already pointed previosuly GU is trading above 6200-6600, which is bullish overall for the next 3-6 months. Until significant resistance is hit (7000 7200 7400).
  • #372,054
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:38am Apr 16, 2014 5:38am
I expect a reversion to the mean somewhere around 1.6750 or lower.
After which we can buy and see if the resistance at 1.6808 will hold on the re-test.
Let's take it one at a time- 1.6750 or lower first then we can re-assess.
Happy trading!
  • #372,055
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:39am Apr 16, 2014 5:39am
Quoting A-speculator
{quote} if i am trading that account, i have no idea on how to get out from those positions bro, really...
I look for structure and pick my spots Specs.
Once I get PA confirmation that my support/resistance/Trendline confluence spots are a high probability, I enter and usually pick 2 targets.
Until the trade is invalidated by taking out the high or low, I manage my exposure from there.

I can't day trade brother, I don't have the time/opportunity, or the finely tuned skills to read smaller TF's.

So I guess we have different perspectives of what's reasonable.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #372,056
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:41am Apr 16, 2014 5:41am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} The bearish pattern is printed by me on the chart Specs using the triangle shapes tool. How can you miss it??? We have travelled 2000 pips to smack into resistance with no significant corrective retrace on the weekly TF. I seriously doubt we are just going to keep sailing on through from here, particularly when I see (and added onto my chart) the bearish daily pattern and the breakout retests on the daily and 4hr TF's.
i'm not quite sure that the trendline you draw is valid bro.. anyway, i agree price at high of the multi year range.

regarding that we've seen no significant retracement is what bothers me with the idea of long term shorting cable.. perhaps price has already gain enough momentum to break through the resistance and that is why we've seen no significant retracement, what i mean is bulls are showing their strength to break the resistance meaning market may have agreed on more strength to gbp - risk on situation.

anyway, this is all speculation, what matters really is what price gonna do with ~6820 price area. if you are thinking breakout retest of the trend line, than if price manage to break 6820, what will be your view then? will you still consider it as breakout retest or continuation of the bullish momentum?
  • #372,057
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:42am Apr 16, 2014 5:42am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} For GU to drop, you need ECB interventions and QE, which is still in the making and won't be announced until later in Q2 2014, ECB is as bureaucratic as the politbureau. By that time EU can print above 4200-4400, so I won't bet money on GU going down. As already pointed previosuly GU is trading above 6200-6600, which is bullish overall for the next 3-6 months. Until significant resistance is hit (7000 7200 7400).
That's rubbish, EU is over blown at resistance the same as Cable.

Don't need intervention for a corrective drop from there.

Anyway, I have seen EU and GU travel in opposite directions for weeks.

Remember beginning of 2013?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #372,058
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:44am Apr 16, 2014 5:44am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} That's rubbish, EU is over blown at resistance the same as Cable. Don't need intervention for a corrective drop from there. Anyway, I have seen EU and GU travel in opposite directions for weeks. Remember beginning of 2013?
Tell me, how do you get bullish for next 3 to 6 months?

I have noticed Cable tends to roughly follow 3 monthly (quarterly) cycles, bullish then bearish.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #372,059
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:45am Apr 16, 2014 5:45am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} I look for structure and pick my spots Specs. Once I get PA confirmation that my support/resistance/Trendline confluence spots are a high probability, I enter and usually pick 2 targets. Until the trade is invalidated by taking out the high or low, I manage my exposure from there. I can't day trade brother, I don't have the time/opportunity, or the finely tuned skills to read smaller TF's. So I guess we have different perspectives of what's reasonable.
no mate, that's not what i worried of.. what i'm afraid of is.. seems like you are not into the idea of cutting loss.. this what worries me.. you let your loss to run even after you've seen valid breakout retest where you could cut the loss at minimum..
  • #372,060
  • Edited 6:02am Apr 16, 2014 5:50am | Edited 6:02am
Quoting petetong
One thing for sure that price is telling us is that overall pound is bullish...price that's right - the leading indicator...the only one that counts and on monthly which is constructive whilst in a range at top....weekly - in an uptrend, and daily top of a range consolidation after an uptrend, this pairing is bullish...not bearish...no matter what pattern anyone has or what indicator read you have - price tells us this pairing is bullish on these time frames....this of course may change but right now this is the case. Price is king, not patterns or indicator reads. best wishes.
Quoting petetong
it's an opinion not advice - this forum thread is full of opinions and some are even backed up with evidence....and no I don't buy at a high - that is stupid I buy low and sell high and in any event I am a short term trader on time frames below 1hr and I shorted at the resistance but this does not mean I am a long term bear or take an overall bearish view...for such a time horizon I just look at what price is telling me....and then see if the fundamentals are supporting it. To say that this pairing is not bearish on the time frames I mentioned is...

I couldn't agree more with this. I too am a short term trader meaning I'm both long and short in any "TREND". But just because I'd short up here at strong SR does not negate the fact that this pair is bullish as hell "overall" long term. One look at a monthly/weekly chart should convince anyone I'd think?? This is just a weekly chart. Sure seems like solid consolidation ON TOP of strong support to me. Just "my" opinion though...

EDIT: Wrong chart at first...hehe...
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