DislikedDraghi out last night saying the ECB are increasingly concerned about the strength of the euro and more problems in Ukraine are gonna make a fun market open i reckonIgnored
- #11,742
- Apr 13, 2014 6:16pm Apr 13, 2014 6:16pm
Draghi says further strength in Euro(surely meant against the dollar, against what other single currency had been gaining strength
) is not good and may trigger more loosening in monetary policy(asset purchases).
Jordan says cap is extremely important and IMF had already given the SNB green light for negative rates introduction on the CHF when necessary.
What EC does is opens a gap down!!!
Coming supports are 1.2130, a break will find 1.210s, under and we are in the 1.2030s I believe. Upside we have 1.2175-80 followed by 1.2190s, and 1.2220s possibly.
Anyone realized several brokers who had high positive swaps on EC turned it recently to very low, zero or even negative?
At this very important period of negative swaps hot talks, that is not coincident or innocent, good time to rob clients they believe
Cheers to who kept the positive swaps
) is not good and may trigger more loosening in monetary policy(asset purchases).Jordan says cap is extremely important and IMF had already given the SNB green light for negative rates introduction on the CHF when necessary.
What EC does is opens a gap down!!!
Coming supports are 1.2130, a break will find 1.210s, under and we are in the 1.2030s I believe. Upside we have 1.2175-80 followed by 1.2190s, and 1.2220s possibly.
Anyone realized several brokers who had high positive swaps on EC turned it recently to very low, zero or even negative?
At this very important period of negative swaps hot talks, that is not coincident or innocent, good time to rob clients they believe
Cheers to who kept the positive swaps
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
- #11,745
- Apr 14, 2014 11:17am Apr 14, 2014 11:17am
- Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,654 Posts
Draghi says further strength in Euro(surely meant against the dollar, against what other single currency had been gaining strength
- #11,746
- Apr 14, 2014 12:19pm Apr 14, 2014 12:19pm
...
Anyone realized several brokers who had high positive swaps on EC turned it recently to very low, zero or even negative?
Twitter - @Jimbaloo
- #11,747
- Apr 14, 2014 3:32pm Apr 14, 2014 3:32pm
@JeremyWS For your info, brokers rarely change the swap rates, hourly basis is just from your imagination. And what does it have to do with market moving dude! The doubt comes when different brokers get the swap rates from very similar liquidity providers(named on their websites), why must they have different swap rates to an extent of some positive others negativeunless for the robbing
@Jimbaloo EC bulls are not longing because of the swaps, but why get negative swaps on EC from the broker when it must logically be positive(at least by some others)? And don't underestimate positive swaps benefit when lots are heavy size and you're put in a position of going on the long run sometimes
unless for the robbing@Jimbaloo
EC bulls are not longing because of the swaps, but why get negative swaps on EC from the broker when it must logically be positive(at least by some others)? And don't underestimate positive swaps benefit when lots are heavy size and you're put in a position of going on the long run sometimes Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
- #11,748
- Apr 14, 2014 3:42pm Apr 14, 2014 3:42pm
- Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,654 Posts
@JeremyWS For your info, brokers rarely change the swap rates, hourly basis is just from your imagination. And what does it have to do with market moving dude! The doubt comes when different brokers get the swap rates from very similar liquidity providers(named on their websites), why must they have different swap rates to an extent of some positive others negative
I should clarify - with a reputable, non bucket shop broker. The swaps will change on a daily basis (they'll change on hourly, but you'll rollover on what the rate is at the end of the day)
With a bucket shop, of course they are not going to change, but it doesn't matter cos they quote like -1/1 on an ON EURUSD swap ffs.
- #11,749
- Apr 15, 2014 3:55pm Apr 15, 2014 3:55pm
{quote} see where we get confused is... What I call a broker and what you call a broker are different. I should clarify - with a reputable, non bucket shop broker. The swaps will change on a daily basis (they'll change on hourly, but you'll rollover on what the rate is at the end of the day) With a bucket shop, of course they are not going to change, but it doesn't matter cos they quote like -1/1 on an ON EURUSD swap ffs.
Theoretically, it changes the end of the day, but practically and in fact rarely the liquidity providers to inform brokers of changes, for what reasons is not my job to know and not interested but just about the end result(positive swaps)
Sadly there are many bucket shops(or with no regulation/license) that have much better swaps(positive and high) than most regulated reputable brokers that for no reason apply negative swaps on EC Longs.
Am starting to doubt who are the real bucket shops, maybe regulation is to cover the criminal part, like the person who covers the dirty business with social parties and donations..etc No, those brokers have the marketing/advertising part for coverage
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
- #11,753
- Edited 5:58am Apr 17, 2014 2:28am | Edited 5:58am
- | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,247 Posts
This spike seemed like an algo glitch or something for sure!
I like to think it was the SNB sending out a signal to not sell eur/chf
Bulls giving up again and letting it slide The 4hr 200 EMA did the trick of holding price.
It is amazing the relentless selling pressure on this pair.
Here comes the capitulation before the long weekend.
- #11,754
- Apr 17, 2014 2:56pm Apr 17, 2014 2:56pm
hi br thanks for the ping, Ive went to sleep mode remembering good old 2012 times. 1,2 yeah maybe but I think unlikely because then a very goood RR to 1,23 or even to 1,22, guys @snb maybe conservative but as some of them said before in order to release the floor the rate has to be in quite a distance because if it doesnt then they have a risk for 1,1 and CH can start again the deflation play. so at the end of the day this year we will see 1,23-1,24 and that would be fairly enough for me if I dont do anything for another year (ok one condition that inflation does not set in but it wont). if we go lower Ill be adding gradually - going higher closing gradually. (still expect maybe a suprise in usdchf in couple of months like in JPY last year of course not that much in percent but similar style of move)
any idea why we are going up ?
any idea why we are going up ?
- #11,757
- Apr 21, 2014 6:30pm Apr 21, 2014 6:30pm
Selling Eur/Chf is the play here as Ukraine tensions now evident as militant uprising continues SNB can say what it wants but the flood of money will be a test of these guys mettle once momentum starts. Never rely on central banks to be there when you want them. More money has been lost relying on them than made. 1.2000 lets see
Friday to Monday(and other holidays) EC and market movement must had been an enough lesson for you and others that banks(if central, north, south
) are the ones that control the market and all crazy moves are under its control. If this was not true, any billionaire/s could had moved the market bt. Friday-Monday in a specific way even if its just some spike up and down for a single second but these only happen in normal market hours when banks are working.SNB will defend the peg no doubt. I cant see any drop to the 1.20 in the near future but more seen is a new upward phase.
1.2150 first and 1.2110s later on might be the best to dream of.
My new strategy is longing super heavy lots instead of just heavy ones in bt. these levels. TP is as was recently bt. 1.22-1.2250 until something changes.
Upside, there's 1.2230 and 1.2250, above can pave way to 1.2320s and 1.2420s.
EC movement must stay as mentioned for many weeks-months to come, unless something real important happens as intervention or sudden big drop, meaning some unrealistic thing that rarely occurs, in all cases EC will stay way up 1.20
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.