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  • #889,861
  • Apr 14, 2014 5:17am Apr 14, 2014 5:17am
Quoting Rtm
{quote} fatpanda thinks EU will go to 1.3333 everyday
He tease them
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #889,862
  • Edited 5:34am Apr 14, 2014 5:22am | Edited 5:34am
It is money making time for the central banks, so I don't expect to turn it from where it technically should...in my opinion there will be at least one terrifying down move just to be sure there are tons of sellers to destroy. But because they doesn't like half-finished work, there is a chance for a deep swing before making new highs, just to make sure they destroy bulls either.

My rules:
Until we are under ~1.39057 (last high) the butterfly sell is valid on daily/h4, which predict a new low (going under ~1.36430).
Will wait for the signs of refusing at 1.37500-700, than at 1.37000-300 area.

Edit: the gap can help keeping longs (because it will be filled [once]), and that's also saying me that it will go lower.

Eur stops under 1.37800.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #889,863
  • Apr 14, 2014 5:41am Apr 14, 2014 5:41am
atm just below 3834.9... i am paying attention to it
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #889,864
  • Apr 14, 2014 5:41am Apr 14, 2014 5:41am
Quoting milam
{quote} A poem for you my wicked friend: Do you have the patience to wait till your mud settles and the water is clear? Can you remain unmoving till the right action arises by itself. Lao-tzu
Very good: The art of do nothing and make money
Let the GOLD time Roll
  • #889,865
  • Apr 14, 2014 5:44am Apr 14, 2014 5:44am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2014-04-14 at 13.34.13.png Size: 69 KB


The weekly chart it says for me we are in the end of the flag pattern, and in the middle of the channel. => use less risk, because possible a breakout, fake breakout, trend change.

Saturday Draghi told another lie, maybe his speak will push the price to 1.37 and let me buy or to 1.41 and let me sell otherwise just watch or scalp the low timeframe to have activity ( with the lowest trade size what the broker allows it ), maybe another pair?
I want to buy PATIENCE
  • #889,866
  • Apr 14, 2014 5:58am Apr 14, 2014 5:58am
Quoting ud1nh0
{image}{image} no worries, tripple xxx has possibility to be completely retraced.
depends on which tf.......
try dis..
3832-3398 and the new high..and the 61.8 to fit minimum 3645
this 3832 is 100 %...

yeaa...officially MC.....
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #889,867
  • Apr 14, 2014 6:16am Apr 14, 2014 6:16am
Shorting to .3771 then will go long again. 1.40 will definitely happen and i think further upside is possible.
Draghi said that if there's more strengthening of the euro then action may be taken. So euro has to strengthen first. Yes the euro will weaken considerably later this year but not yet. 1.40 is the first psychological/political level.
Then there's the USD side of things. Good data may have come out but people aren't fooled. E.g. the unemployment rate is at its lowest for years yet that is because more people than ever have given up looking for work. Actually a sign of how fragile the US recovery is. Wages are not increasing, people are still poorer in real terms than before 2007. A savings-driven consumer upswing flatters the figures.
And now it's earnings season. The stock market may be on the verge of a big correction. S&P 500 companies are having their earnings expectation revised downwards considerably; i think i saw year on year earnings growth revised to 0.9% from 6.5%! Incredible!
Good times for traders.
It'll be alright on the night
  • #889,868
  • Apr 14, 2014 6:19am Apr 14, 2014 6:19am
Quoting Chatchoc
{quote} Very good: The art of do nothing and make money
Yes the art of doing-not doing, apply it to forex and you will be ok
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #889,869
  • Apr 14, 2014 6:28am Apr 14, 2014 6:28am
looking to catch an intraday short now at 1.3837.. 139 short leaving in play for 136 area but intraday 1.3837 looking to get it too 1.3787.

Then look for long over night
  • #889,870
  • Apr 14, 2014 6:36am Apr 14, 2014 6:36am
Attached Image

a short may be possible from 1.3880/90 zone depending upon how far this dip goes. I would be looking for PA off 3800 down to 1.3790 to ride up to that spot. Blowing through 1.3790 negates all that. COT report still paints a bullish picture.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf ScotiaCOT.pdf   283 KB | 303 downloads
  • #889,871
  • Apr 14, 2014 6:39am Apr 14, 2014 6:39am
Quoting RabbitWolf
I would not buy seriously till 1.3800 is reached - it is also 61 fib extention and other things. I may be wrong... Open Orders one of brokers {image} Good Luck
1.3800 is a buy is it??? you would get 30 pips on that buy but you would get 100 pips on 3780 sell
  • #889,872
  • Apr 14, 2014 6:40am Apr 14, 2014 6:40am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 3620 chart. atm the low is near its um. i will change 3772 to 3788 {image}
3780 is my sell territory which means both of us are rite.
  • #889,873
  • Apr 14, 2014 6:41am Apr 14, 2014 6:41am
Quoting Gaviscon3
Shorting to .3771 then will go long again. 1.40 will definitely happen and i think further upside is possible. Draghi said that if there's more strengthening of the euro then action may be taken. So euro has to strengthen first. Yes the euro will weaken considerably later this year but not yet. 1.40 is the first psychological/political level. Then there's the USD side of things. Good data may have come out but people aren't fooled. E.g. the unemployment rate is at its lowest for years yet that is because more people than ever have given up looking...
Yes, going short before 1.3770 is a good trade, but going long again near 1.3370 seems somewhat difficult as today's Retail Sales and the inflation figures tomorrow signals improvement in US economic indicators. Moreover, US CPI tomorrow and the ZEW indices for Germany and Euro zone also signals weakening of EURUSD. Though, market is hard to predict in recent days due to speculation over ECB and Fed monetary policy tightening, hope for the better days. All in all good analysis Gaviscon3.
  • #889,874
  • Apr 14, 2014 6:41am Apr 14, 2014 6:41am
Quoting RussJ
Thinking 1.3787/92 takes us up rest of the day too 1.3872 area in my opinion.. back fill some of the gap.. but iof we make it back too 1.3872 are off 1.3815 then 1.3790 wil be target for New York Short and 1.3840 will be tomorrow's short
back fill under what circumstances or just because you feel. 1.3820 is proving very weak area and I doubt it will hold
  • #889,875
  • Apr 14, 2014 6:44am Apr 14, 2014 6:44am
It's ranging for me , I stay out.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #889,876
  • Apr 14, 2014 6:50am Apr 14, 2014 6:50am
US retail sales news in 40minutes...sounds like good news so maybe enough to push the € a nipple down.
A word to the wise ain't necessary - it's the stupid ones that need advice
  • #889,877
  • Apr 14, 2014 6:53am Apr 14, 2014 6:53am
Quoting Fx_Anil
{quote} Yes, going short before 1.3770 is a good trade, but going long again near 1.3370 seems somewhat difficult as today's Retail Sales and the inflation figures tomorrow signals improvement in US economic indicators. Moreover, US CPI tomorrow and the ZEW indices for Germany and Euro zone also signals weakening of EURUSD. Though, market is hard to predict in recent days due to speculation over ECB and Fed monetary policy tightening, hope for the better days. All in all good analysis Gaviscon3.
Yes indeed we will see what happens. This is why i don't rely on fundamentals to trade - any perspective can be interpreted and concluded. What we are trading is not fundamental factors, but the way that market participants interpret and react to those factors. Boils down to mass crowd psychology, which is why i use EW. This also explains the 'irrational' reaction of the market to fundamental news releases that many in this forum complain about. Manipulation seems to be a favourite word.
It'll be alright on the night
  • #889,878
  • Apr 14, 2014 6:59am Apr 14, 2014 6:59am
Quoting Gaviscon3
{quote} Yes indeed we will see what happens. This is why i don't rely on fundamentals to trade - any perspective can be interpreted and concluded. What we are trading is not fundamental factors, but the way that market participants interpret and react to those factors. Boils down to mass crowd psychology, which is why i use EW. This also explains the 'irrational' reaction of the market to fundamental news releases that many in this forum complain about. Manipulation seems to be a favourite word.

Because i always got pain in my left-arm i stopped trading on days that ECB & FED news comes out. Too much casino, and i'm not much of a gambler...(Unibet account not included)
A word to the wise ain't necessary - it's the stupid ones that need advice
  • #889,879
  • Apr 14, 2014 7:00am Apr 14, 2014 7:00am
Quoting Gaviscon3
{quote} Yes indeed we will see what happens. This is why i don't rely on fundamentals to trade - any perspective can be interpreted and concluded. What we are trading is not fundamental factors, but the way that market participants interpret and react to those factors. Boils down to mass crowd psychology, which is why i use EW. This also explains the 'irrational' reaction of the market to fundamental news releases that many in this forum complain about. Manipulation seems to be a favourite word.
Trading the Psychology of Traders seems good way to trade.
  • #889,880
  • Apr 14, 2014 7:03am Apr 14, 2014 7:03am
good us data in 25mins could really spark this market into life, trader beware time all ladies
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