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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #371,661
  • Edited 9:03am Apr 12, 2014 8:52am | Edited 9:03am
ive given cable some thought ,
there is rising channel but we must trade over highs before May during May to take us further
D1 dose show a bearish formation ,(should be read in association with previous)which I'm sure would take us lower but I note the size of the bullish candle before this formation ,could work 2 ways
1)allow big bear
2)Halt d1 formation



since I'm short I hope we stay below 16750 pivot,
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #371,662
  • Apr 12, 2014 9:44am Apr 12, 2014 9:44am
£ itself is bear set up I think which is why I dont belive the channel set up lots have ,
having said that if we drop then set up bullish ill be joining bull camp to take out res
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #371,663
  • Apr 12, 2014 9:58am Apr 12, 2014 9:58am
Quoting Bones
£ itself is bear set up I think which is why I dont belive the channel set up lots have , having said that if we drop then set up bullish ill be joining bull camp to take out res {image} {image}
Bones, bearish scenario on GU will have to be supported by NU/EU bearish outcome, where I don't see valid topping action just yet. 7000-7150 will be more like it - a decent entry for a reversal trade.

Did you see last week's closing candle on EU?
  • #371,664
  • Apr 12, 2014 10:28am Apr 12, 2014 10:28am
yea I see eu , d1 is doji though ,
its all about the $ ,sharp down on w1 into strong support and bullish d1 off that ,
long term rising tl gone if that is it ,the large bear on d1 is the one that took ,
generally $ has been sideways ,
see what happenns from d1 here ,
lower wick on this w1 chart is upper on cable and others
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #371,665
  • Apr 12, 2014 10:41am Apr 12, 2014 10:41am
same number in past ,poss this is only up to test ,but its a great pivot,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #371,666
  • Apr 12, 2014 10:43am Apr 12, 2014 10:43am
oh my, here's the W1 EURO. D1 is a spinning top, so that's an indication of a pullback, not reversal or start of a sell off. Oh well, let's wait and see I guess.
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  • #371,667
  • Apr 12, 2014 10:59am Apr 12, 2014 10:59am
yea maybe ,3 week close friday ,
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eu d1 12 april USD (DFB).png Size: 31 KB
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  • #371,668
  • Apr 12, 2014 11:37am Apr 12, 2014 11:37am
Cable_My five charts’ worth_12.04.14


Monthly: I’m seeing a retrace back down to the ascending red MAs as they attempt to break north of the blue MAs. Almost a classic 1, 2, 3 movement for MAs/price action, and so am inclined to think that there may be some downside to come from Cable. (I’m also aware of the FXCM Dollar drop (following post) the last day or so, and remain suspicious of this continuing.)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdmonthly.png Size: 65 KB

Weekly: PA seems determined to linger around that yellow horizontal line – representing the last two tops since 2009. In addition to this, the red MAs of Guppy profile are, for me, far too inclined, and I expect a drop back down in price to, at the very least, a kiss of these red MAs/ascending magenta TL/61.8 FE, before any further continuation of any upward trend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Daily: The Guppy profile has been oscillating around this price level/yellow horizontal line for some time now, and could possibly suggest indecision as to where to go… I would think that in these circumstances, holders of Cable may be inclined to sell; in order to free up capital to place in another better-performing/more trending instrument. (Of course, we have no oversight of propriety money flows, and so the aforementioned is but supposition. Hey, ain’t all trading at our levels…)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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4 Hour: On a longer timeframe, this period is not so significant, but PA did decide to finish the week sitting on the Guppy profile for this timeframe. The DP having been left behind, and with the WP and MP below… both of which sit around that ever-present yellow horizontal line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Pivots: Self-explanatory, and so not commented upon. Which is good, as, as of tomorrow, I’ll be on a safari - non-shooting kind - for 10 days, and so won’t be worrying about PA.
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  • #371,669
  • Apr 12, 2014 11:42am Apr 12, 2014 11:42am
FXCM Dollar_My three charts’ worth_12.04.14

Weekly: I’m expecting some form of retrace from this sudden drop last week, and would expect the following week or so to enable such. If not, then yes, Cable may very well hit that much-discussed 1.70 level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Daily: I think that if the 150 FE level holds, then 1.70 for Cable is off.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Pivots: The opposite of Cable, whereby the pivots to head for – WP and MP – are north.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdollarh1.png Size: 56 KB
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  • #371,670
  • Apr 13, 2014 6:31am Apr 13, 2014 6:31am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} Nav, what's rollingG? Better be careful, W1 GU chart recently tall green candles a many, tall red candles a few.

aye buddy..im ok ..just caught up in a bearish view on cable despite it rising..apart from this all else is ok
How are u?
  • #371,671
  • Apr 13, 2014 6:56am Apr 13, 2014 6:56am
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} aye buddy..im ok ..just caught up in a bearish view on cable despite it rising..apart from this all else is ok How are u?
doing good boss, move all in on some NUs/AUs and other key crosses. See all them trading higher soon. Look forward to happy days May 2014.

Nav, really, I just prefer to keep it simple. 50 fibo on monthly GUs big ONE swing is 7400. Price will likely test this level and then expect a big pop for sure.
GUs price action always historically came back to that level, bull/bear don't matter.
  • #371,672
  • Apr 13, 2014 7:29am Apr 13, 2014 7:29am
I'm thinking now that the pullback and TL retest is complete, this quarter can be corrective with target area below.
Being that this is only April and all, I think we got plenty of time to reach max resistance areas above for this year.

The chart clearly shows that since July of last year, we have had stuff all in the way of significant correction for 2000 pips. That ain't normal

--- and now that we are at significant multi year resistance?

A nice, healthy correction down before next major leg up maybe just what the Dr ordered.

particularly when I look at the SP500
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #371,673
  • Apr 13, 2014 8:22am Apr 13, 2014 8:22am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} doing good boss, move all in on some NUs/AUs and other key crosses. See all them trading higher soon. Look forward to happy days May 2014. Nav, really, I just prefer to keep it simple. 50 fibo on monthly GUs big ONE swing is 7400. Price will likely test this level and then expect a big pop for sure. GUs price action always historically came back to that level, bull/bear don't matter.

it is possible for sure ..i was very bullish on it but somehow i got caught selling it..i just need it to drop to 1.59 if thats not asking to much
  • #371,674
  • Apr 13, 2014 9:32am Apr 13, 2014 9:32am
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} it is possible for sure ..i was very bullish on it but somehow i got caught selling it..i just need it to drop to 1.59 if thats not asking to much
one of the reasons swissy/ EU / GU is going higher yet, is the safe heaven demand, very wealthy Ukranian/Russian businessmen are buying into EU/UK/Swiss real estate/businesses due to the Ukraine situation, therefore strenghtening the currency. A friend of mine dumped all his holdings here and bought 4 hotels in Aix en provence, France, spending more than 7 mln euros in one go. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. That's why rouble took a major hit in 2014 (-10% almost), since everyone was dumping their RUR holding and swiching to EU/USD/CHF.

Fund flows have a strong impact on the currency. I expect the safe heaven demand to remain strong. Also due to flight from US equities markets, big funds are looking to generate alpha still, that's the reason that carry trade is back ON on commod currencies, which in turn will send AU/NU higher as well. AU/NU will cool down, but the time is not right just yet.

Technically, GUs M1 chart looks like tower bottom overall, in turn price action will naturally tend to trade higher and try to break out/
  • #371,675
  • Apr 13, 2014 12:24pm Apr 13, 2014 12:24pm
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} one of the reasons swissy/ EU / GU is going higher yet, is the safe heaven demand, very wealthy Ukranian/Russian businessmen are buying into EU/UK/Swiss real estate/businesses due to the Ukraine situation, therefore strenghtening the currency. A friend of mine dumped all his holdings here and bought 4 hotels in Aix en provence, France, spending more than 7 mln euros in one go. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. That's why rouble took a major hit in 2014 (-10% almost), since everyone was dumping their RUR holding and swiching to EU/USD/CHF....
  • #371,676
  • Apr 13, 2014 3:09pm Apr 13, 2014 3:09pm
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} one of the reasons swissy/ EU / GU is going higher yet, is the safe heaven demand, very wealthy Ukranian/Russian businessmen are buying into EU/UK/Swiss real estate/businesses due to the Ukraine situation, therefore strenghtening the currency. A friend of mine dumped all his holdings here and bought 4 hotels in Aix en provence, France, spending more than 7 mln euros in one go. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. That's why rouble took a major hit in 2014 (-10% almost), since everyone was dumping their RUR holding and swiching to EU/USD/CHF....
I'm not sure i can agree with this.. fiber is on its monthly resistance as well as cable..

the way i see it, both will go down... opening to the May myth (I think so its a myth but who knows... statistic shows more down on May)
  • #371,677
  • Apr 13, 2014 3:22pm Apr 13, 2014 3:22pm
Quoting godim
{quote} Second for the euro. The euro is in UpTrend = UpSwing. 232 pips for 5 days. I wrote yesterday that the cable is ahead on price and the euro after him. The last bar on the daily chart has a higher peak. This makes it part of the swing. Of reversing the trend is still early to talk. Are needed at least two bars of daily chart, with lower peaks of 3904 and lower lows since 3863. In other words, at the earliest on Wednesday. {image} For the euro I do another chart. Two days Swing chart. On this chart can be searched any dependencies or performing...
Technically, i see high probability of change of trend than more exposure upside.
  • #371,678
  • Apr 13, 2014 4:18pm Apr 13, 2014 4:18pm
really love the gap on EJ..
  • #371,679
  • Apr 13, 2014 4:23pm Apr 13, 2014 4:23pm
GJ seems like good opportunity to short close to 170 resistance turned support... imho.
  • #371,680
  • Apr 13, 2014 4:47pm Apr 13, 2014 4:47pm
Quoting A-speculator
{quote} Technically, i see high probability of change of trend than more exposure upside.
I knew the day would come when we would agree on Cables direction Specs .
Have added another short...

the Euro gap just covered the families morning coffee....
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