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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #371,101
  • Apr 8, 2014 4:33pm Apr 8, 2014 4:33pm
current month is 69% still number 1 correlated pair. 93% weekly
http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-market/correlation/GBPUSD
if you click on right you can change it to daily even lower
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #371,102
  • Apr 8, 2014 4:38pm Apr 8, 2014 4:38pm
I am back for good
The fragrance remains in the hands of those that gves the rose
  • #371,103
  • Apr 8, 2014 4:42pm Apr 8, 2014 4:42pm
another attempt made shorting cable, stops if price breaks the candle high.. also fiber and swissy..
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  • #371,104
  • Apr 8, 2014 4:45pm Apr 8, 2014 4:45pm
Quoting A-speculator
another attempt made shorting cable, stops if price breaks the candle high.. also fiber and swissy.. {image}
dont you sleep lol, i am of to bed, drunk on the big bull candle ..lol gl i am all sl, and tp on my pairs lets see if it is Christmas in the morning, gl regards E
  • #371,105
  • Apr 8, 2014 4:50pm Apr 8, 2014 4:50pm
Quoting elbert3
{quote} dont you sleep lol, i am of to bed, drunk on the big bull candle ..lol gl i am all sl, and tp on my pairs lets see if it is Christmas in the morning, gl regards E
lol. just finish making some analysis.. gonna trigger some then i will go to bed.

i'm not sure my position is good for intraday or just for scalping.. will watch progress in the lower TF for further action.
  • #371,106
  • Apr 8, 2014 4:53pm Apr 8, 2014 4:53pm
Quoting A-speculator
{quote} lol. just finish making some analysis.. gonna trigger some then i will go to bed. i'm not sure my position is good for intraday or just for scalping.. will watch progress in the lower TF for further action.
if there's any movement to the downside, i'm not expecting it to cover the whole progress it made today..

might range first i think to minimize the bullish momentum. i'm more interested in shorting the yens but while waiting for the yens to retrace, i made this small move shorting cable and few others.
  • #371,107
  • Apr 8, 2014 4:58pm Apr 8, 2014 4:58pm
Quoting Davit
current month is 69% still number 1 correlated pair. 93% weekly http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-market/correlation/GBPUSD if you click on right you can change it to daily even lower
1 year rolling correlation - top
1 quarter rolling - middle
1 month rolling - bottom

All data going back to 1975 as per Reuters.

Mean over the period is about 0.7 or so
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  • #371,108
  • Apr 8, 2014 5:07pm Apr 8, 2014 5:07pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} 1 year rolling correlation - top 1 quarter rolling - middle 1 month rolling - bottom All data going back to 1975 as per Reuters. Mean over the period is about 0.7 or so {image}
charts are straight forward, tell more than a table.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #371,109
  • Apr 8, 2014 5:10pm Apr 8, 2014 5:10pm
when trade euro and cable, look at EJ, GJ, UJ, and EG charts.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #371,110
  • Apr 8, 2014 5:22pm Apr 8, 2014 5:22pm
cleared my position for just 1 pip

don't want to mess with crazy bull.. lol.

and i'm going to bed.
  • #371,111
  • Apr 8, 2014 5:29pm Apr 8, 2014 5:29pm
bubble-licious

150pip candle, largest rise of 2014 in a weak global macro economic environment,

GBP up over 2000 pips from 2013 low. theres no value in it.

how many rate rises already factored in?
  • #371,112
  • Apr 8, 2014 5:48pm Apr 8, 2014 5:48pm
Quoting Halba
bubble-licious 150pip candle, largest rise of 2014 in a weak global macro economic environment, GBP up over 2000 pips from 2013 low. theres no value in it. how many rate rises already factored in?
what does any of it mean? rise 100 pips fall 300 right after...or vise versa

cable feels teflon like...some can agree....
  • #371,113
  • Apr 8, 2014 6:35pm Apr 8, 2014 6:35pm
Anyone can explain to me how to play GU? Suddenly become dumb after saw yesterday chart.
row row row your boat
  • #371,114
  • Apr 8, 2014 8:21pm Apr 8, 2014 8:21pm
Quoting ngiler
Anyone can explain to me how to play GU? Suddenly become dumb after saw yesterday chart.
you're asking the holy grail question.
no one, i mean "no one" can answer that to you on that.
all anyone can do is share the information in this forum to their best of abilities whether to good results or not.

i think you just keep on watching here for about a year or so and practice on a demo account and deduce your own method of trading just like everyone else did here.
  • #371,115
  • Edited 9:41pm Apr 8, 2014 9:15pm | Edited 9:41pm
Quoting ngiler
Anyone can explain to me how to play GU? Suddenly become dumb after saw yesterday chart.

Yes, it's very simple. Understand where important support is on GU and buy the dip. If you did that for the past 9 months you would have made a lot of money. Listening to people who don't know what they're doing on a forum will lose you money.

The market is very simple. It moves in secular cycles. Until those cycles change, trade in the direction of cycle flow.

As Marty Zweig once said, "Don't fight the Fed". If you listened to this and went long on stocks in 2009 when the Fed instituted it's QE program you would have made a lot of money. The same is true for the ECB. When Draghi said, "Whatever it takes", it signaled a secular change in the market. If you bought Euro in the summer of 2012 you would have made a lot of money. The same is true for BOJ. When they changed Monetary Policy in September 2012 it signaled a secular change in the market. If you sold Yen in September 2012 you would have made a lot of money. The same is true for BOE. When Carney announced changes in Forward Guidance and Monetary Policy in 2013 coupled with positive GDP results it signaled a secular change in the market. So if you bought Sterling in the summer of 2013, you would have made a lot of money too.

When the next secular change is signaled, price will respond accordingly. It's so f*cking simple even a child could understand it, but for some reason many people on this forum have insisted on shorting GBPUSD the entire way up from 1.4800, the Euro from 1.2000, and USDJPY from 79.00.

My only advice is to ignore people who don't know what they're doing. Ignore people who are trying to short into buying momentum or fighting the secular market.

You'll probably make more money that way.
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  • #371,116
  • Apr 8, 2014 9:28pm Apr 8, 2014 9:28pm
IMHO It will not retrace, it will go directly to 1.7 this week or next.
kiss the trend
  • #371,117
  • Apr 8, 2014 10:12pm Apr 8, 2014 10:12pm
Quoting Luther
{quote} You didn't see the inside bar reversal on the Daily chart yesterday? Where price couldn't get low enough to touch the long term Bullish trend line? Cable has been a buy since July 2013. There is nothing on the charts that says otherwise. Open a Weekly chart. Every major support level has held for 9 straight months. The Daily Support trend line has held since November. GU went parabolic of the February 5th support test of the prior 3 year resistance at 1.6300 500 pips straight up. When the trend changes, we'll have a clear signal that it...
I was watching a pattern move down to support around 6345 area.
You don't need to tell me Cable has been a buy since last July
But it seems to me Cable had topped out at 6821, so I have been shorting
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #371,118
  • Apr 8, 2014 10:35pm Apr 8, 2014 10:35pm
1.7 looks like a realistic touch, but someone tell me a fundamental reason suggesting Cable should move well above 1.7 now when it hasn't the last five years? Why not sell on the peaks instead of buy the dips?
  • #371,119
  • Apr 9, 2014 12:06am Apr 9, 2014 12:06am
Quoting JRissa
I would be cautious about shorting GBP too soon. I'm watching these levels.
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{image}
We are getting near first level
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I know the secret...
  • #371,120
  • Edited 12:43am Apr 9, 2014 12:28am | Edited 12:43am
Quoting Luther
{quote} Yes, it's very simple. Understand where important support is on GU and buy the dip. If you did that for the past 9 months you would have made a lot of money. Listening to people who don't know what they're doing on a forum will lose you money. The market is very simple. It moves in secular cycles. Until those cycles change, trade in the direction of cycle flow. As Marty Zweig once said, "Don't fight the Fed". If you listened to this and went long on stocks in 2009 when the Fed instituted it's QE program you would have made a lot of money....
Hindsight trading is always easy.I don't recall your trades in real time.
On cable we had serious corrections rallies 100-300pips question is matter of DD.If you are long and price goes 300pips DD do you have the necessary conviction and equity to stay committed to Bull? What if 300pip correction was not a correction but trend reversal factored with fundamentals like Feds tapering.Would you still be committed to Bull?At which point would you resign and take your loss at 62? 60?
Your post is kind of condescending because sharing "wisdom" after the fact is always cheap.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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