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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #44,561
  • Apr 7, 2014 3:38am Apr 7, 2014 3:38am
Quoting Didgeridoo
I think we're at an interestng crossroads right now. If USD/JPY moves up more here, then it has attracted buying. It it falters, this bouce was merely profit taking on the back of Friday's moves (all IMO).
More like boring IMO. These levels are v. uninteresting to me.
  • #44,562
  • Apr 7, 2014 4:33am Apr 7, 2014 4:33am
Seeing oanda orderbook there's a lot of bids (open orders) to be filled between 102-103. Guess everyone is expecting it to get there so I go with the flow :nerd:
  • #44,563
  • Apr 7, 2014 4:36am Apr 7, 2014 4:36am
Quoting sakisf
Seeing oanda orderbook there's a lot of bids (open orders) to be filled between 102-103. Guess everyone is expecting it to get there so I go with the flow :nerd:
You have it all figured out hu
A word to the wise ain't necessary - it's the stupid ones that need advice
  • #44,564
  • Edited 5:22am Apr 7, 2014 4:49am | Edited 5:22am
Quoting Nocturnes
{quote} You have it all figured out hu
It's not only that. I am eyeing G/J & E/J and while EU & GU are resilient and go a bit up today their J counterparts are more like preparing for a fall, despite being in uptrend both of them. I believe that soon UJ will fall and re-test 103, AU is poised to go up too, news from Ukraine not so great. Everything is pointing down, can't ignore it.

edit: On the other hand when everything is pointing down it can just go straight up with no retrace
  • #44,565
  • Apr 7, 2014 5:46am Apr 7, 2014 5:46am
At the present time, USDJPY showing "some" signs of intraday bears. For the most part, don't expect much movement from the pair this morning.

- About 1 Billion in USDJPY options are set to expire between 103.00-50 levels this morning.

- Consumer Sales Tax went into effect last week.

In intraday, I don't expect the pair to move outside of 103.00-50 levels because of expiring options due later in the morning. Afterwards, I don't expect much movement to occur for the remainder of the day. Low volatility, undecided direction are causes for my #notrade bias intraday.

Overall, in the upcoming months market analysis and market participants will keep all eyes on JPY economic indicators - looking for anything that suggest economy slowing.
  • #44,566
  • Apr 7, 2014 6:36am Apr 7, 2014 6:36am
Can't really see it going back above 103.30 for quite a while.
  • #44,567
  • Apr 7, 2014 6:41am Apr 7, 2014 6:41am
time to reload shorts on this pair.
  • #44,568
  • Apr 7, 2014 7:03am Apr 7, 2014 7:03am
Man that PA sucked lol
  • #44,569
  • Apr 7, 2014 7:29am Apr 7, 2014 7:29am
Hi all Crispy here.

Start of my membership here with my two cents on the USD/JPY.

As we can see in the D1 chart below the channel resistance at around 140.00 level held and I am expecting the reversal to test the support at 101.61 level as the USDX enter its corrective movement after breaking out its channel.

Currently it stopped short of the 38.20% Fibonacci level at 103.01 and I do not expect that level to be broken today as U/J historically shows large amount of respect to these levels (although anything can happen).

Currently I have an open short at 103.87 with SL 104.19 and TP 101.91

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #44,570
  • Apr 7, 2014 9:35am Apr 7, 2014 9:35am
sure as hell trying to hold down here..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #44,571
  • Apr 7, 2014 10:41am Apr 7, 2014 10:41am
Quoting PayTheLimit
sure as hell trying to hold down here..
And stay down! Good boy
  • #44,572
  • Apr 7, 2014 11:43am Apr 7, 2014 11:43am
Quoting nobodysman
{quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} Waiting for 2 months now. Longest ever trade with such low volatility. Average of initial trade is now 104.85. Still holding my shorts. Target TP was 400-500 pips till end of March. So this means last 4 days to close the position. So far 250 pips only. Far from target. Disappointing and boring days! Volatility is gone forever!
Hi everybody! Still holding my shorts.

As per same weekly RSI chart that I follow up my view is changed. Before I was telling that it won't ever hit 105.xx. But now I expect another attack to 105-106 levels that will be equivalent to a hit to the descending weekly RSI trend line and then from there the big falling trend that I mentioned before will start. I will be adding more shorts in 105.xx and then won't ever trade this pair again during 9 months. Target will be 75-80 in 9 months. My stop will be the breaking of RSI trend line at least by 100 pips which I guess will be around 107.xx. If it doesn't go up anymore from today's levels then I won't add more shorts until we see that we hit below 100.
  • #44,573
  • Edited 1:46pm Apr 7, 2014 1:35pm | Edited 1:46pm
BoJ press conf. in the morning (EU), still holding shorts, target revised to 102 (prev 103).

Quoting Brassboy
Where do you guys think this will bounce first? 102.80?
102.65 then 102.05-10
  • #44,574
  • Apr 7, 2014 1:44pm Apr 7, 2014 1:44pm
Where do you guys think this will bounce first? 102.80?
  • #44,575
  • Apr 7, 2014 4:19pm Apr 7, 2014 4:19pm
Quoting sakisf
102.65 then 102.05-10
Agreed, I see 102.61 as an important level for a reaction. I will book some profits there and look to reload later.
  • #44,576
  • Apr 7, 2014 4:39pm Apr 7, 2014 4:39pm
I cant tell whether its going up or down first in the next hour. Kinda balanced right now. I wonder if this news makes it move a little
  • #44,577
  • Apr 7, 2014 7:56pm Apr 7, 2014 7:56pm
Quoting nobodysman
{quote} Hi everybody! Still holding my shorts. As per same weekly RSI chart that I follow up my view is changed. Before I was telling that it won't ever hit 105.xx. But now I expect another attack to 105-106 levels that will be equivalent to a hit to the descending weekly RSI trend line and then from there the big falling trend that I mentioned before will start. I will be adding more shorts in 105.xx and then won't ever trade this pair again during 9 months. Target will be 75-80 in 9 months. My stop will be the breaking of RSI trend line at...
You realize that at 75-80 most manufacturers in Japan would pretty much go bankrupt as their exports would decline big time. They can not sustain to keep rate at 75-80
  • #44,578
  • Apr 7, 2014 8:18pm Apr 7, 2014 8:18pm
BoJ Statement same as last, Kiuchi again proposed to change the BoJ's QQE timeframe but was voted agianst 8-1 in favor of 'as long as it it necessary'
  • #44,579
  • Apr 7, 2014 11:20pm Apr 7, 2014 11:20pm
Quoting nobodysman
{quote} Hi everybody! Still holding my shorts. As per same weekly RSI chart that I follow up my view is changed. Before I was telling that it won't ever hit 105.xx. But now I expect another attack to 105-106 levels that will be equivalent to a hit to the descending weekly RSI trend line and then from there the big falling trend that I mentioned before will start. I will be adding more shorts in 105.xx and then won't ever trade this pair again during 9 months. Target will be 75-80 in 9 months. My stop will be the breaking of RSI trend line at...
You sure? " the monetary base will increase at an annual pace of about 60-70 trillion yen " = surplus and decline in yen demand
Pls correct me if I'm wrong
  • #44,580
  • Apr 7, 2014 11:41pm Apr 7, 2014 11:41pm
Flat now, closed every position opened since March 28th in profit. Would short again if price goes between 103-103.30 or long when it reaches 101-102.
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