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USD/JPY Discussion

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  • Post #44,561
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  • Apr 7, 2014 6:38am Apr 7, 2014 6:38am
  •  Brassboy
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Boy plunger | 136 Posts
Quoting Didgeridoo
Disliked
I think we're at an interestng crossroads right now. If USD/JPY moves up more here, then it has attracted buying. It it falters, this bouce was merely profit taking on the back of Friday's moves (all IMO).
Ignored
More like boring IMO. These levels are v. uninteresting to me.
 
 
  • Post #44,562
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  • Apr 7, 2014 7:33am Apr 7, 2014 7:33am
  •  sakisf
  • Joined Sep 2013 | Status: boreddddd | 3,136 Posts
Seeing oanda orderbook there's a lot of bids (open orders) to be filled between 102-103. Guess everyone is expecting it to get there so I go with the flow :nerd:
 
 
  • Post #44,563
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  • Apr 7, 2014 7:36am Apr 7, 2014 7:36am
  •  Nocturnes
  • | Joined Mar 2014 | Status: Member | 375 Posts
Quoting sakisf
Disliked
Seeing oanda orderbook there's a lot of bids (open orders) to be filled between 102-103. Guess everyone is expecting it to get there so I go with the flow :nerd:
Ignored
You have it all figured out hu
A word to the wise ain't necessary - it's the stupid ones that need advice
 
 
  • Post #44,564
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  • Edited 8:22am Apr 7, 2014 7:49am | Edited 8:22am
  •  sakisf
  • Joined Sep 2013 | Status: boreddddd | 3,136 Posts
Quoting Nocturnes
Disliked
{quote} You have it all figured out hu
Ignored
It's not only that. I am eyeing G/J & E/J and while EU & GU are resilient and go a bit up today their J counterparts are more like preparing for a fall, despite being in uptrend both of them. I believe that soon UJ will fall and re-test 103, AU is poised to go up too, news from Ukraine not so great. Everything is pointing down, can't ignore it.

edit: On the other hand when everything is pointing down it can just go straight up with no retrace
 
 
  • Post #44,565
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  • Apr 7, 2014 8:46am Apr 7, 2014 8:46am
  •  Jhig
  • Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Sentiment and Global Macro | 2,321 Posts
At the present time, USDJPY showing "some" signs of intraday bears. For the most part, don't expect much movement from the pair this morning.

- About 1 Billion in USDJPY options are set to expire between 103.00-50 levels this morning.

- Consumer Sales Tax went into effect last week.

In intraday, I don't expect the pair to move outside of 103.00-50 levels because of expiring options due later in the morning. Afterwards, I don't expect much movement to occur for the remainder of the day. Low volatility, undecided direction are causes for my #notrade bias intraday.

Overall, in the upcoming months market analysis and market participants will keep all eyes on JPY economic indicators - looking for anything that suggest economy slowing.
 
 
  • Post #44,566
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  • Apr 7, 2014 9:36am Apr 7, 2014 9:36am
  •  Brassboy
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Boy plunger | 136 Posts
Can't really see it going back above 103.30 for quite a while.
 
 
  • Post #44,567
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  • Apr 7, 2014 9:41am Apr 7, 2014 9:41am
  •  shripsfx
  • | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: Member | 310 Posts
time to reload shorts on this pair.
 
 
  • Post #44,568
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  • Apr 7, 2014 10:03am Apr 7, 2014 10:03am
  •  Brassboy
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Boy plunger | 136 Posts
Man that PA sucked lol
 
 
  • Post #44,569
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  • Apr 7, 2014 10:29am Apr 7, 2014 10:29am
  •  CrispyFries
  • | Joined Apr 2014 | Status: Sizzlin | 11 Posts
Hi all Crispy here.

Start of my membership here with my two cents on the USD/JPY.

As we can see in the D1 chart below the channel resistance at around 140.00 level held and I am expecting the reversal to test the support at 101.61 level as the USDX enter its corrective movement after breaking out its channel.

Currently it stopped short of the 38.20% Fibonacci level at 103.01 and I do not expect that level to be broken today as U/J historically shows large amount of respect to these levels (although anything can happen).

Currently I have an open short at 103.87 with SL 104.19 and TP 101.91

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • Post #44,570
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  • Apr 7, 2014 12:35pm Apr 7, 2014 12:35pm
  •  PayTheLimit
  • Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Ride the Pig | 31,178 Posts
sure as hell trying to hold down here..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
 
 
  • Post #44,571
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  • Apr 7, 2014 1:41pm Apr 7, 2014 1:41pm
  •  Brassboy
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Boy plunger | 136 Posts
Quoting PayTheLimit
Disliked
sure as hell trying to hold down here..
Ignored
And stay down! Good boy
 
 
  • Post #44,572
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  • Apr 7, 2014 2:43pm Apr 7, 2014 2:43pm
  •  nobodysman
  • | Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Member | 42 Posts
Quoting nobodysman
Disliked
{quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} Waiting for 2 months now. Longest ever trade with such low volatility. Average of initial trade is now 104.85. Still holding my shorts. Target TP was 400-500 pips till end of March. So this means last 4 days to close the position. So far 250 pips only. Far from target. Disappointing and boring days! Volatility is gone forever!
Ignored
Hi everybody! Still holding my shorts.

As per same weekly RSI chart that I follow up my view is changed. Before I was telling that it won't ever hit 105.xx. But now I expect another attack to 105-106 levels that will be equivalent to a hit to the descending weekly RSI trend line and then from there the big falling trend that I mentioned before will start. I will be adding more shorts in 105.xx and then won't ever trade this pair again during 9 months. Target will be 75-80 in 9 months. My stop will be the breaking of RSI trend line at least by 100 pips which I guess will be around 107.xx. If it doesn't go up anymore from today's levels then I won't add more shorts until we see that we hit below 100.
 
 
  • Post #44,573
  • Quote
  • Edited 4:46pm Apr 7, 2014 4:35pm | Edited 4:46pm
  •  sakisf
  • Joined Sep 2013 | Status: boreddddd | 3,136 Posts
BoJ press conf. in the morning (EU), still holding shorts, target revised to 102 (prev 103).

Quoting Brassboy
Disliked
Where do you guys think this will bounce first? 102.80?
Ignored
102.65 then 102.05-10
 
 
  • Post #44,574
  • Quote
  • Apr 7, 2014 4:44pm Apr 7, 2014 4:44pm
  •  Brassboy
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Boy plunger | 136 Posts
Where do you guys think this will bounce first? 102.80?
 
 
  • Post #44,575
  • Quote
  • Apr 7, 2014 7:19pm Apr 7, 2014 7:19pm
  •  Brassboy
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Boy plunger | 136 Posts
Quoting sakisf
Disliked
102.65 then 102.05-10
Ignored
Agreed, I see 102.61 as an important level for a reaction. I will book some profits there and look to reload later.
 
 
  • Post #44,576
  • Quote
  • Apr 7, 2014 7:39pm Apr 7, 2014 7:39pm
  •  Trendzalore
  • Joined Jan 2014 | Status: Self Taught | 848 Posts
I cant tell whether its going up or down first in the next hour. Kinda balanced right now. I wonder if this news makes it move a little
 
 
  • Post #44,577
  • Quote
  • Apr 7, 2014 10:56pm Apr 7, 2014 10:56pm
  •  stylinex
  • Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Member | 4,072 Posts
Quoting nobodysman
Disliked
{quote} Hi everybody! Still holding my shorts. As per same weekly RSI chart that I follow up my view is changed. Before I was telling that it won't ever hit 105.xx. But now I expect another attack to 105-106 levels that will be equivalent to a hit to the descending weekly RSI trend line and then from there the big falling trend that I mentioned before will start. I will be adding more shorts in 105.xx and then won't ever trade this pair again during 9 months. Target will be 75-80 in 9 months. My stop will be the breaking of RSI trend line at...
Ignored
You realize that at 75-80 most manufacturers in Japan would pretty much go bankrupt as their exports would decline big time. They can not sustain to keep rate at 75-80
 
 
  • Post #44,578
  • Quote
  • Apr 7, 2014 11:18pm Apr 7, 2014 11:18pm
  •  EmeraldEyes
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Sep 2010 | 1,472 Posts
BoJ Statement same as last, Kiuchi again proposed to change the BoJ's QQE timeframe but was voted agianst 8-1 in favor of 'as long as it it necessary'
 
 
  • Post #44,579
  • Quote
  • Apr 8, 2014 2:20am Apr 8, 2014 2:20am
  •  jhheng
  • | Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Member | 8 Posts
Quoting nobodysman
Disliked
{quote} Hi everybody! Still holding my shorts. As per same weekly RSI chart that I follow up my view is changed. Before I was telling that it won't ever hit 105.xx. But now I expect another attack to 105-106 levels that will be equivalent to a hit to the descending weekly RSI trend line and then from there the big falling trend that I mentioned before will start. I will be adding more shorts in 105.xx and then won't ever trade this pair again during 9 months. Target will be 75-80 in 9 months. My stop will be the breaking of RSI trend line at...
Ignored
You sure? " the monetary base will increase at an annual pace of about 60-70 trillion yen " = surplus and decline in yen demand
Pls correct me if I'm wrong
 
 
  • Post #44,580
  • Quote
  • Apr 8, 2014 2:41am Apr 8, 2014 2:41am
  •  sakisf
  • Joined Sep 2013 | Status: boreddddd | 3,136 Posts
Flat now, closed every position opened since March 28th in profit. Would short again if price goes between 103-103.30 or long when it reaches 101-102.
 
 
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