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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #370,701
  • Apr 6, 2014 2:26pm Apr 6, 2014 2:26pm
Hi D it dosent make sense to me to try and short kiwi over gbp , considering the knock back ,and bearish monthly,
weekly suggest could hold up ,but I don't think its true at this point,based on daily

Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi HDA Good to see you post again.I am flat on GU but building a nice position of shorts on Kiwi basically continuing to sell the rallies. 9350 on Aussie is 1.618 fib projection something to look for on short side for serious correction that could yield 200pips. Regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp NZD d1 .png Size: 26 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #370,702
  • Apr 6, 2014 2:31pm Apr 6, 2014 2:31pm
Quoting Bones
Hi D it dosent make sense to me to try and short kiwi over gbp , considering the knock back ,and bearish monthly, weekly suggest could hold up ,but I don't think its true at this point,based on daily {quote} {image}
Hi Bones
Kiwi is weak fundamentally much more then pound.Dairy price crash sent it down from 8690 to 8530 and this fundemetal fact has not changed.NZ is heavily depended on dairy exports.
I don't trade GN my shorts are on NU
REgards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #370,703
  • Apr 6, 2014 2:32pm Apr 6, 2014 2:32pm
my point is gbp nzd is bearish so if nu falls cable falls faster,
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #370,704
  • Apr 6, 2014 2:37pm Apr 6, 2014 2:37pm
Quoting Bones
Hi D it dosent make sense to me to try and short kiwi over gbp , considering the knock back ,and bearish monthly, weekly suggest could hold up ,but I don't think its true at this point,based on daily {quote} {image}
1.8960 is my target for g/n .... your the only other poster that I have seen suppose lower too....
  • #370,705
  • Edited 2:50pm Apr 6, 2014 2:39pm | Edited 2:50pm
Quoting Bones
my point is gbp nzd is bearish so if nu falls cable falls faster,
Could be but we could see strong rally up on cable but strong bear on NU.
To me NZ fundamentally can't handle currency above 85(lets not overlook GDP of 200B).Highest it went last 15 yrs was 88 average out around 82
IMF thinks its 15% overvalued.To me its opportunity to boast my account substantially.12 shorts currently

I believe in theory that if you take 5-10yrs data of extreme high extreme low and find median level then price almost always comes back to median level.Its the effect of rubber band. on NU 82 is median line the comfort zone.

Regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #370,706
  • Apr 6, 2014 2:42pm Apr 6, 2014 2:42pm
your not going to have a strong rally cable and bear nu ,really that won't happen
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #370,707
  • Apr 6, 2014 2:49pm Apr 6, 2014 2:49pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Could be but we could see strong rally up on cable but strong bear on NU. To me NZ fundamentally can't handle currency above 85(lets not overlook GDP of 200B).Highest it went last 15 yrs was 88 average out around 82 IMF thinks its 15% overvalued.To me its opportunity to boast my account substantially.12 shorts currently Regards {image} {image}
i think i'm with bones on kiwi analysis.. doesn't shows any significant bearish sign yet..

as you can see, weekly doesn't shows bearish candles, in fact the most bearish it has is just last week together with at least 4 bullish candles - this doesn't signify the bears are interested yet in this market..

daily also doesn't suggest anything just yet.. as you can see, the support hold and closed above the previous high, not yet bearish imho..

most probably kiwi will range to minimize the bullish momentum before turn around
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdweekly.png Size: 51 KB
  • #370,708
  • Apr 6, 2014 2:57pm Apr 6, 2014 2:57pm
Opinions differ and I am firmly Bearish on NU time period 2-4weeks
Here is a chart showing theory of median line.I placed check marks to illustrate how often price came to 82
My TP is 84 so not looking for 82 now but this gives you overall feel how price moves on NU.One can confidently short the crap out of NU because top is limited unlike GU.
Once I hit my TP I'll be happy to post my results
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd.weekly.png Size: 36 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #370,709
  • Apr 6, 2014 3:09pm Apr 6, 2014 3:09pm
Like eur/usd: higher hi and Probably up
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The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #370,710
  • Apr 6, 2014 3:14pm Apr 6, 2014 3:14pm
Quoting spinozagr
Like eur/usd: higher hi and Probably up {image}
the trendline you put in place does not describe price action well, a better look @ the same produces two possible
targets on downside (60-80 pips and 220 pips).
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  • #370,711
  • Apr 6, 2014 3:16pm Apr 6, 2014 3:16pm
I'm sure the trade will pan out eventually
my main point is that whilst GN is in a down trend ,and has confirmed that tl last week ,odds on cable is a better short of the 2


Quoting Davit
Opinions differ and I am firmly Bearish on NU time period 2-4weeks Here is a chart showing theory of median line.I placed check marks to illustrate how often price came to 82 My TP is 84 so not looking for 82 now but this gives you overall feel how price moves on NU.One can confidently short the crap out of NU because top is limited unlike GU. Once I hit my TP I'll be happy to post my results {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp NZDd1 .png Size: 24 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #370,712
  • Apr 6, 2014 3:19pm Apr 6, 2014 3:19pm
Quoting spinozagr
Like eur/usd: higher hi and Probably up {image}
  • #370,713
  • Apr 6, 2014 3:19pm Apr 6, 2014 3:19pm
yea

Quoting A-speculator
{quote} i think i'm with bones on kiwi analysis.. doesn't shows any significant bearish sign yet.. as you can see, weekly doesn't shows bearish candles, in fact the most bearish it has is just last week together with at least 4 bullish candles - this doesn't signify the bears are interested yet in this market.. daily also doesn't suggest anything just yet.. as you can see, the support hold and closed above the previous high, not yet bearish imho.. most probably kiwi will range to minimize the bullish momentum before turn around {image} {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #370,714
  • Apr 6, 2014 3:22pm Apr 6, 2014 3:22pm
Quoting Bones
I'm sure the trade will pan out eventually my main point is that whilst GN is in a down trend ,and has confirmed that tl last week ,odds on cable is a better short of the 2 {quote} {image}
That's fine Bones.You are probably correct but I usually build short positions on 1 pair at a time with multiple positions so I will stick to NU shorts until hit TP.
My April started with good bang +16% 40wins O losses in 4days of trading.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #370,715
  • Apr 6, 2014 3:23pm Apr 6, 2014 3:23pm
Quoting Bones
yea {quote}
  • #370,716
  • Apr 6, 2014 3:28pm Apr 6, 2014 3:28pm
eu is bearish ,I'm thinking that d1 can't be that bullish if at all ,price closed under swing


Quoting Bones
odds on that number won't hold this time {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd USD d1 .png Size: 21 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #370,717
  • Apr 6, 2014 3:34pm Apr 6, 2014 3:34pm
Quoting Bones
eu is bearish ,I'm thinking that d1 can't be that bullish if at all ,price closed under swing {quote} {image}
yeah eu definitely more bearish than gu as i see it.. and i think price might gap & open below the swing price of yours..
  • #370,718
  • Apr 6, 2014 3:49pm Apr 6, 2014 3:49pm
Possible Gartley formation

Almost hit the 61,8% fibo...

Next target C

Lets see...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #370,719
  • Apr 6, 2014 3:50pm Apr 6, 2014 3:50pm
Bones, i think the significant support for EU in weekly is much lower than your chart.. i think about 3320 area..

can you please confirm this with me mate?

thanks.
  • #370,720
  • Apr 6, 2014 3:54pm Apr 6, 2014 3:54pm
Quoting spinozagr
Possible Gartley formation Almost hit the 61,8% fibo... Next target C Lets see... {image}
perhaps you overlook the head & shoulder formation (or almost) mate...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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