Cable Update (GBPUSD) | Page 18535 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/USD

Similar Threads

Cable Update - Continued 118 replies

Cable Update (GBP/USD) without Idiots 25 replies

cable short for gbpusd? 10 replies

Why is GBPUSD called cable? 76 replies

Cable (GBPUSD) vs Euro (EURUSD) 31 replies

Attachments: Cable Update (GBPUSD)
Exit Attachments

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #370,681
  • Edited 5:35am Apr 6, 2014 5:21am | Edited 5:35am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} HDA thanks for a recap. I trade both options and spot fx, however currently for the month of April invested 90% in options, due to a better risk/reward ratio of the trades.
@ruffryders:

You're welcome



I am here trying to write my analysis GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY and EUR/AUD as promised for the coming week in simple, easy to read form.

Looking at all the data and forming an opinion and planning the trade, in terms of where to buy and where to sell, I can do in two minutes. But compressing all that information and then writing it for easy reading is the challenge, because not everyone that will read the post has the same level of understanding of the forex as the next trader.

As you know, my times up. The agreement with my wife is that I can write the final analysis and then no more forums for a while.

HDA OUT
  • #370,682
  • Edited 6:28am Apr 6, 2014 5:35am | Edited 6:28am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} umm.... Spot FX is most certainly a speculative market... Also if you think about the dynamic of an FX swap that can for the most part be considered non-speculative. Unless of course you were to roll forward FX swaps so as to gain purely interest rate exposure, but why do that when you could just trade an IRS...
@JeremyWS:

EDIT

I HAVE REMOVED POST DUE TO INCORRECT INFORMATION THAT WAS POSTED, HAVING NOT READ THE 2013 BIS REPORT.

Thank you JeremyWS

HDA OUT
  • #370,683
  • Apr 6, 2014 5:45am Apr 6, 2014 5:45am
Quoting HDA
{quote} @JeremyWS: About 10% of it is speculative. (That would be you, me etc - who are interested in making a profit) The other 90% is non-speculative (Commercial Traders) When a business goes to the bank and buys USD to pay for goods and services that they import, they are not speculating to make a profit from purchasing the USD. They just have to buy the currency for whatever it is trading at and pay their bill. When a family buys USD to travel abroad for Holiday, they are not speculating to make a profit from buying the currency. When someone...
unfortunately this is completely wrong...

Corporate flow doesn't tend to be spot, it tends to be forwards. And if not Forwards then they will use Options structures.

Has no one ever actually read through the BIS triennial reports??

Plus if you want some real facts here we go

Corporate flow makes up about 9% of total volume

Hedge funds make up 11% (so already more than the 10% you said and thats just hedge funds)

Penison funds make up another 11%

Inter bank makes up 24%

For ease of use, I highlighted the non-speculative sector on the pie graph.

I fear you may have got a small mix up because in fact its about 10% is non speculative and 90% speculative. NOT THE OTHER WAY AROUND
Attached Image
  • #370,684
  • Edited 7:54am Apr 6, 2014 6:08am | Edited 7:54am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} unfortunately this is completely wrong... Corporate flow doesn't tend to be spot, it tends to be forwards. And if not Forwards then they will use Options structures. Has no one ever actually read through the BIS triennial reports?? Plus if you want some real facts here we go Corporate flow makes up about 9% of total volume Hedge funds make up 11% (so already more than the 10% you said and thats just hedge funds) Penison funds make up another 11% Inter bank makes up 24% For ease of use, I highlighted the non-speculative sector on the pie...
@JeremyWS:

The 2013 survey collected a finer sector breakdown of these other institutions for the first time.

Smaller banks (not participating in the survey as reporting dealers) accounted for 24% of turnover,

Trading with non-financial customers, mainly corporations, contracted between the 2010 and 2013 surveys, reducing their share of global turnover to only 9%. (This was not the case before)


@Giveachance:
See how easily one can convey a point and still show respect to the fellow trader.


I will read the 2013 report in full JeremyWS - thank you

I will edit my previous post to reflect partly non-speculative, all the other information is correct.

Once again, thank you for that.

HDA OUT
  • #370,685
  • Apr 6, 2014 6:38am Apr 6, 2014 6:38am
@ HDA
its great to have an instatutional trader right here on cable tread
Ive had my team at Bones FX .com.co.uk working on the pairs you mention ,and we are waiting to compare results
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #370,686
  • Apr 6, 2014 6:49am Apr 6, 2014 6:49am
Quoting Bones
@ HDA its great to have an instatutional trader right here on cable tread Ive had my team at Bones FX .com.co.uk working on the pairs you mention ,and we are waiting to compare results
@Bones: LoL!

Oops! Google Chrome could not find www.bonesfx.com.co.uk

.com
.co.uk

typo I guess?

You are filled with so much humour BONES - The forum needs you for sure.

HDA OUT
  • #370,687
  • Apr 6, 2014 7:00am Apr 6, 2014 7:00am
lol thats cause its only me and I don't have a web site
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #370,688
  • Apr 6, 2014 7:07am Apr 6, 2014 7:07am
mind you I am interested to see your cable projection HDA ,
cable I think could be seen as very tricky right now ,for longer term direction
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #370,689
  • Apr 6, 2014 7:11am Apr 6, 2014 7:11am
Hi N
the other pairs are actually clearer I think ,the reaction to tl and major pivots you can add a lot of weight to that ,

Quoting nonlinear
I agree with Bones, on the monthly and the weekly, cable failed to break a strong level of resistance. Cable down. On the daily, we have price consolidating and a recent trend down. It might jump up short turn, but I expect the down trend will eventually continue. I am not sure what to take, if anything, from the other GBP pairs.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #370,690
  • Apr 6, 2014 7:12am Apr 6, 2014 7:12am
Quoting Bones
lol thats cause its only me and I don't have a web site
@Bones:



You crack me up -

Thanks for the laughter.

Remember this:

Quoting HDA
I will be out for the day so please trade safe, will catch up tonight, heading to the country with the wife.

Quoting Bones
right if your out ill think ill have day off {quote}

Quoting A-speculator
{quote} , don't go too harsh on that man bones.. lol.

Quoting Bones
I'm only joking haha {quote}

Quoting HDA
{quote} @A-speculator: Humour is never a bad thing It's healthy HDA OUT

Quoting HDA
{quote} @Bones: You crack me up HDA OUT

HDA OUT
  • #370,691
  • Apr 6, 2014 7:16am Apr 6, 2014 7:16am
Quoting Bones
I guess you know him ? anyway way he spoke ,I'm not belittleing him I'm serious {quote}
@Bones:

Suffo's membership with Forex Factory was revoked. So he can still sign in, but he can't post ever again, because his membership has been revoked.

HDA OUT
  • #370,692
  • Apr 6, 2014 7:43am Apr 6, 2014 7:43am
www.philosophyofmetrics.com

Some very interesting perspective......
  • #370,693
  • Apr 6, 2014 8:07am Apr 6, 2014 8:07am
Afternoon, just looking to see the plan later, i do now think we are going short possibly to 6470 area , the emas are crossing the yellow 50, should be on the bottom for long and vice verse ,if you look left at the comparison you can see were it went short , but it did come back on the 12th march,?? in case your wondering it was a Tuesday/ Wednesday depending on time zones, i have not looked at the news for that day?? the heikne ashi rule is enter on the 2nd candle when it closes, but the lines must be pointing in the direction of your trade ?? with his in mind the trade for me is now short, even thou i have been drawing long based charts. As i posted last week, we see and try to justify or trade long or short, because we had to believe in the trade we take , thou it might be the wrong direction.In life we do not want to be wrong, but dealing in this market having that the courage to put your hands up and realise that you are going in the wrong direction, saves your account, yes you might be pulling the trade with cash on its back, but 100 pips later you will be glad you have done the right thing,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 112 KB
  • #370,694
  • Apr 6, 2014 8:20am Apr 6, 2014 8:20am
Quoting elbert3
Afternoon, just looking to see the plan later, i do now think we are going short possibly to 6470 area , the emas are crossing the yellow 50, should be on the bottom for long and vice verse ,if you look left at the comparison you can see were it went short , but it did come back on the 12th march,?? in case your wondering it was a Tuesday/ Wednesday depending on time zones, i have not looked at the news for that day?? the heikne ashi rule is enter on the 2nd candle when it closes, but the lines must be pointing in the direction of your trade ??...
example of heiken ashi
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: g1.png Size: 109 KB
the trade i took friday posted 1267 bt should of been 1287.5 sorry, but you can see the 2nd close , enter then
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: g2.png Size: 92 KB
the result, play it short with tight sl now, back until it meets the emas , cable does not move like gold as we know but i am hoping this is the trade
  • #370,695
  • Apr 6, 2014 8:24am Apr 6, 2014 8:24am
Quoting godim
{quote} Hi Bones Yes. The topic is interesting to me, unfortunately, I have a very limited vocabulary. Writing with the translator is quite tiring. This is not about complexity. It's about trust. When developing methods for analysis or trade is much better in advance I know where are the places where I'm wrong. I set myself the question. What can I change to get the correct results? What should I avoid? All right. It is difficult for me to continue. To you. Methods of analysis should include simple rules. Rules to say what is happening. Then, when...
Hi Godim, i have posted the charts ,as you see this is how i try to use emas, does it make it look a little clear to you, from my trading way,i see we are on the same possibility of short, regards E and gl for this week
  • #370,696
  • Apr 6, 2014 9:32am Apr 6, 2014 9:32am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} Hi Godim, i have posted the charts ,as you see this is how i try to use emas, does it make it look a little clear to you, from my trading way,i see we are on the same possibility of short, regards E and gl for this week
Hi elbert3.
All right. It's hard for me to understand system with MA. But I know it is often used.
As to the direction. Initially, to me, is important level of opening. Important level is 6576. Then we will determine whether there is price support or resistance. Only then we can show the purpose of bears and bulls in the first four hours. Very often, the movement continues on the line. Four, eight or more hours. The market is not in a hurry to give the decision. Participants are not ready or no news.
However, I have the opportunity to calculate the probability of continuation / reversal of DownSwing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 232 KB

Attached Image

DownSwing 128 pips in 4 days. The probability for a reverse (for UpSwing) is below 50%. We need at least another 183-128 = 55 pips and at least 2 days. And all this for probability 50 to 50.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #370,697
  • Apr 6, 2014 9:55am Apr 6, 2014 9:55am
The market is composed of swings. We want to trade these swings. To do this it is necessary them to draw on the charts. On the chart above are swings on a daily chart. We can trade them. But we can go down to a lower timeframe. Then we have to draw the swings on it.
For example H1.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 257 KB


Anything that can tell us the top and the bottom of swing can and should be used in trade.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #370,698
  • Edited 1:51pm Apr 6, 2014 11:58am | Edited 1:51pm
Quoting Bones
mind you I am interested to see your cable projection HDA , cable I think could be seen as very tricky right now ,for longer term direction
GOOD AFTERNOON FOREX FACTORY MEMBERS, GUESTS


Quoting Bones
@ HDA its great to have an instatutional trader right here on cable tread Ive had my team at Bones FX .com.co.uk working on the pairs you mention ,and we are waiting to compare results
AND

TRADERS AT www.BonesFX.com.co.uk:


GBP/USD
ANALYSIS for Sunday, April 6, 2014

This analysis was not written with the news in mind. I trade Levels, not the news.

I have written the levels of support and resistance in the order in which price action would get to each level if price action should go up or if price action should go down.

Note every, very significant level as a point of interest to place your trade should price action get to it and place your trade with your stop loss above that noted significant level of resistance and your stop loss below the significant level of support.

Here we go:

GBP/USD
Resistance

1.6640 Very Significant Level
1.6650 Very Significant Level
1.6665
1.6617 Very Significant Level
1.6745 Very Significant Level

OPTIONS
1.6540 Will It Hold As Immediate Support???
1.6440

GBP/USD
Support

1.6676 Very Significant Level
1.6540 Options Expiry 10am Eastern, Monday April 7, 2014
1.6530
1.6500 Very Significant Level
1.6484 Very Significant Level
1.6440 Options Expiry 10am Eastern Monday April 7, 2014
1.6412 Very Significant Level

The levels noted suggests range trading for this week. So some good pips can be made.

BUYERS PLAN

Plan A
BUY at 1.6545 with final exit target, selling at 1.6630

If 1.6540 doesn't hold, then implement Plan B

Plan B
BUY at 1.6485, with final exit target, selling at 1.6565 (controlling greed) while taking off some profits at every resistance level heading towards the 1.6565 exit target. If price action continues further UP, don't be upset with yourself, you made a profitable trade.


SELLERS PLAN

SELL at 1.6700, with final exit target, buying at 1.6600, (controlling greed) while taking off some profits at every support level heading towards the 1.6600 exit target. If price action continues further DOWN, don't be upset with yourself, you made a profitable trade.

Greater confidence can be placed on the suggested buy trade as you would be trading in the direction of the trend.

Traders the market does not move in a straight line. As the market moves, it waves UP, Down and Side Ways.

I have given you the levels to watch to place your trade, with the concept of the entry being stress free and I have given you the levels to watch where caution is advised to take some profit or exit your trade.



HDA OUT

Once again, do not trade this plan blindly, it was written as a guide to help with your own analysis. Trade your Plan.
  • #370,699
  • Apr 6, 2014 1:04pm Apr 6, 2014 1:04pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} GOOD AFTERNOON FOREX FACTORY MEMBERS, GUESTS AND TRADERS AT www.BonesFX.com.co.uk: GBP/USD ANALYSIS for Sunday, April 6, 2014 This analysis was not written with the news in mind. I trade Levels, not the news. I have written the levels of support and resistance in the order in which price action would get to each level if price action should go up or if price action should go down. Note every, very significant level as a point of interest to place your trade should price action get...
Hi HDA
Good to see you post again.I am flat on GU but building a nice position of shorts on Kiwi basically continuing to sell the rallies.
9350 on Aussie is 1.618 fib projection something to look for on short side for serious correction that could yield 200pips.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #370,700
  • Apr 6, 2014 2:06pm Apr 6, 2014 2:06pm
not sure about cable, i'm thinking fiber might have a gap down on open.. well, doesn't matter.. eventually cable will follow suit..

This is based on last week's down pressure & momentum on fiber compared to cable.. seems like fiber was more vulnerable to bearish pressure compared with cable in last week's movement & i'm thinking that movement has not ended and in fact it's just started..

if this hypothesis is true, meaning fiber broke it's critical & major support price (~3700 based on weekly) which open huge advantage to bearish outlook.

For how far? Say we are viewing till the end of may, then by weekly analysis, nearest & significant support level is at about 3320, that's 400 pips away from where the price now.. thus relate this movement to cable, the nearest significant support is at about 6350 that's just about 200 pips away..

I'm thinking, cable will have rough sailing compared with fiber..

Invalidation of this analysis is... well, the support hold and price trading sustainably above the support level.

Well, good luck guys and trade safe.
230 traders viewing now, 2 are registered:
bosti
,
ericis