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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #369,721
  • Edited 5:19pm Mar 30, 2014 5:00pm | Edited 5:19pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} yeah good - however, given the structural difference in the GBP from 2008 to now, you might as well throw away the data for the older charts... its a completely different make-up, and techs will count for shit-all above 1.7050... yes there may be some stops, but to get to 1.8/1.9/2.0 you need fundamental backing... which just isn't there (and I'm more bullish the UK than 95% of the street) Techs don't work on the longer timeframes.
@JeremyWS:

It's great to see you posting. Thank you for sharing. As it relates to Techs - I am not a Tech trader JeremyWS. My post was written for the benefit of day traders and the different approaches that they will have towards how they look at the market and the different tools that they may use to interpret the charts.

As it relates to 1.8/1.9/2.0 I am sharing a possible scenario and what I will do if X happens. Those levels are not near term targets, hence position trading. And as you know already, holding Long the GBP/USD is good for swaps and that i've been making alot of . So as Price Action dictates, a trader should adjust.

I have been stating that I am a Price Action Position Trader, so based on price action, decisions are then made as to how to manage one's position.

I hope I have managed clear up any misinterpretation you may have had from my post. What and how we write in forums can sometimes be filtered and interpreted differently by each individual that is reading it.

How is your trading coming along?

HDA OUT
  • #369,722
  • Mar 30, 2014 5:06pm Mar 30, 2014 5:06pm
Quoting tomspin
{quote} I would become bearish after firm close under 1,6250
@tomspin:

How are things? I took notice of your excellent position trade entry on Monday, March 24, 2014 going long on the GBP/USD
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...92#post7359392

Well done

Please also see post, Friday, March 28, 2014.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...56#post7370556

HDA OUT
  • #369,723
  • Mar 30, 2014 5:07pm Mar 30, 2014 5:07pm
Hello GBP/US

Everytime it starts to get around 1.67 to 168+

it has a real battle on its hands

bit like the YEN staying above the 100.

The main thing for us traders is to be on the right side

off any these moves.

But GBP/US has already crawled from 148 etc

Talking 2.000 etc

We are at 1.664

Last week we were going to 1.64 etc

The turds are starting to stack up

at 1.68 etc

Leaning tower of pizza

Enjoy reading the posts
  • #369,724
  • Mar 30, 2014 5:16pm Mar 30, 2014 5:16pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @tomspin: How are things? I took notice of your excellent position trade entry on Monday, March 24, 2014 going long on the GBP/USD http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...92#post7359392 Well done Please also see post, Friday, March 28, 2014. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...56#post7370556 HDA OUT
Hey Mate
Thanks for that, very kind of you, yep it is nice and going well, we have few levels down the road but we should see this by the end of Q2 this year,
I will add to it if I see pullbacks from higher levels and add to this winner, I am also waiting for Q to end so I can see quarter pivot points however as I said, friday close kind of confirmed my view. There are many bullish factors in data I will post some charts tommorow from fundie perspective.
Good to see your posts again mate, hope everything is good back home
Ride those waves, the best way to trade imo.
swing it!
  • #369,725
  • Mar 30, 2014 5:24pm Mar 30, 2014 5:24pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @JeremyWS: It's great to see you posting. Thank you for sharing. As it relates to Techs - I am not a Tech trader JeremyWS. My post was written for the benefit of day traders and the different approaches that they will have towards how they look at the market and the different tools that they may use to interpret the charts. As it relates to 1.8/1.9/2.0 I am sharing a possible scenario and what I will do if X happens. Those levels are not near term targets, hence position trading. And as you know already, holding Long the GBP/USD is...
well its not exactly techs, but using price action is using a chart - so its more tech than fundamental

and yes, I understand you aren't targeting 2.0 per se just suggesting we could trade there at some point.

My trading is going fantastically, but I can't participate on the forums too much as I'm not allowed... am a pro now...

Also, on the swaps. Be prepared for US rates to overtake GBP ones. In fact I recommend receiving GBP 1y1y swaps vs paying US 1y1y rates (payoff is broadly speaking analogous to the GBPUSD tho, so while a swaps trade, it replicated FX)
  • #369,726
  • Mar 30, 2014 5:37pm Mar 30, 2014 5:37pm
Quoting tomspin
{quote} Hey Mate Thanks for that, very kind of you, yep it is nice and going well, we have few levels down the road but we should see this by the end of Q2 this year, I will add to it if I see pullbacks from higher levels and add to this winner, I am also waiting for Q to end so I can see quarter pivot points however as I said, friday close kind of confirmed my view. There are many bullish factors in data I will post some charts tommorow from fundie perspective. Good to see your posts again mate, hope everything is good back home Ride...
@tomspin:

I'm seeing a solid close below 1.6150 as a BEAR move. I read where you wrote to JeremyWS that you are seeing a solid close below 1.6250 would make you bearish.

I'm seeing 1.6150 as the last line of defence for the Bulls - A solid close below 1.6150 would breach the Demand Zone - I'm still seeing 1.6250 as still being in the Demand Zone.

I'll keep and eye on your figure and see what happens when price action gets there IF it gets there.

Like you correctly said, "Ride Those Waves, The Best Way To Trade"

HDA OUT
  • #369,727
  • Mar 30, 2014 5:44pm Mar 30, 2014 5:44pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} well its not exactly techs, but using price action is using a chart - so its more tech than fundamental and yes, I understand you aren't targeting 2.0 per se just suggesting we could trade there at some point. My trading is going fantastically, but I can't participate on the forums too much as I'm not allowed... am a pro now... Also, on the swaps. Be prepared for US rates to overtake GBP ones. In fact I recommend receiving GBP 1y1y swaps vs paying US 1y1y rates (payoff...
@JeremyWS:

Woooaaahhhhh!!!! Look who gone PRO!!!

Welcome to the Club

I too hardly post, my wife sees to that

You really do know your trading. Yep you are correct, I have to keep my eye open for that. In the meantime GREEN PIPS until CARNEY and YELLEN do what they want to do.

HDA OUT
  • #369,728
  • Edited 6:11pm Mar 30, 2014 6:00pm | Edited 6:11pm
Hi HDA Jeremy Tom and others

I have no position and yet I do want 6680-67 to be reached to start building shorts.Fundamentally US economy is getting stronger so I don't see reasons to project 1.70 or above.
I am more fundemetal trader with harmonics bias.To me PA is doing this
Going to C point on image on right. PA turned exactly at 61.8 fib and now looking to sell at C
X is at low swing point 6250
C point is valid until 88.6 is violated at 6780
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.daily.png Size: 35 KB
Attached Image
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #369,729
  • Mar 30, 2014 6:02pm Mar 30, 2014 6:02pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @JeremyWS: Woooaaahhhhh!!!! Look who gone PRO!!! Welcome to the Club I too hardly post, my wife sees to that You really do know your trading. Yep you are correct, I have to keep my eye open for that. In the meantime GREEN PIPS until CARNEY and YELLEN do what they want to do. HDA OUT
You buy or sell side? Which shop you at? (DM if you prefer)
  • #369,730
  • Mar 30, 2014 6:05pm Mar 30, 2014 6:05pm
Quoting Davit
Hi HDA Jeremy Tom and others I have no position and yet I do want 6680-67 to be reached to start building shorts.Fundamentally US economy is getting stronger so I don't see reasons to project 1.70 or above. I am more fundemetal trader with harmonics bias.To me PA is doing this Going to C point on image on right. PA turned exactly at 61.8 fib and now looking to sell at C {image}
@Davit:

What's your D? With regards to price? Once your D does not fall below 1.6150, GBP/USD remains bullish and it can be swing traded.

HDA OUT
  • #369,731
  • Mar 30, 2014 6:12pm Mar 30, 2014 6:12pm
Quoting Davit
Hi HDA Jeremy Tom and others I have no position and yet I do want 6680-67 to be reached to start building shorts.Fundamentally US economy is getting stronger so I don't see reasons to project 1.70 or above. I am more fundemetal trader with harmonics bias.To me PA is doing this Going to C point on image on right. PA turned exactly at 61.8 fib and now looking to sell at C X is at low swing point 6250 {image}
@Davit:

X is at low swing point 1.6250, wasn't in your post when I was responding. I'm just seeing it now. Well that means your D still falls above 1.6150 so GBP/USD remains bullish. So you can range trade if you want, if it gets to your D.



HDA OUT
  • #369,732
  • Mar 30, 2014 6:15pm Mar 30, 2014 6:15pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} You buy or sell side? Which shop you at? (DM if you prefer)
@JeremyWS:

This is a public forum

HDA OUT
  • #369,733
  • Mar 30, 2014 6:17pm Mar 30, 2014 6:17pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @Davit: X is at low swing point 1.6250, wasn't in your post when I was responding. I'm just seeing it now. Well that means your D still falls above 1.6150 so GBP/USD remains bullish. So you can range trade if you want, if it gets to your D. HDA OUT
Hi HDA
D point is 6373 zone in which point price can resume uptrend or continue down.
REgards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #369,734
  • Mar 30, 2014 6:20pm Mar 30, 2014 6:20pm
Quoting Davit
Hi HDA Jeremy Tom and others I have no position and yet I do want 6680-67 to be reached to start building shorts.Fundamentally US economy is getting stronger so I don't see reasons to project 1.70 or above. I am more fundemetal trader with harmonics bias.To me PA is doing this Going to C point on image on right. PA turned exactly at 61.8 fib and now looking to sell at C X is at low swing point 6250 C point is valid until 88.6 is violated at 6780 {image} {image}
We could see some down move this week to 6536/6558 area if 6650 hold us here, firm close under last weeks range would make me suspicious,
Most of the stuff with UK is sound mate, check mortgage approval as well(London I know, I know)
It's a nice trendline across macro data unlike us, for me uk is trending and us stuck in a range with chaotic moves up and down(datawise)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: charts.jpg Size: 256 KB
swing it!
  • #369,735
  • Edited 8:31pm Mar 30, 2014 6:20pm | Edited 8:31pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi HDA D point is 6373 zone in which point price can resume uptrend or continue down. REgards
@Davit:

What I'm seeing is, unless 1.6150 is breached and we have a solid close of more than 20pips below, GBP/USD remains bullish

HDA OUT
  • #369,736
  • Mar 30, 2014 6:21pm Mar 30, 2014 6:21pm
Jeremy got it better I am sure but general picture is much more stable recovery imo.
swing it!
  • #369,737
  • Mar 30, 2014 6:28pm Mar 30, 2014 6:28pm
Quoting tomspin
{quote} We could see some down move this week to 6536/6558 area if 6650 hold us here, firm close under last weeks range would make me suspicious,
That might be challenged if that fibo of yours have a go at those lows, however if you see 6536 as a stubborn support we are going higher imo.
So can go both ways really, have to run it is mid of the night here have to be up for london open.
gl mate
swing it!
  • #369,738
  • Mar 30, 2014 6:31pm Mar 30, 2014 6:31pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @Davit: What's your D? With regards to price? Once your D does not fall below 1.6150, GBP/USD remains bullish and it can be swing traded. HDA OUT
I seem to have 1.61147.

One possible harmonic buy pattern.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusddaily330.jpg Size: 184 KB
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #369,739
  • Edited 8:31pm Mar 30, 2014 6:40pm | Edited 8:31pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} I seem to have 1.61147. One possible harmonic buy pattern. {image}
@Mr. Scott:

Good to see you

1.61147?????? I'm not seeing that, based on your chart. Should it be 1.63179???

HDA OUT
  • #369,740
  • Mar 30, 2014 6:45pm Mar 30, 2014 6:45pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} I seem to have 1.61147. One possible harmonic buy pattern. {image}
Hi Scott
Nice chart.Once I am done selling buying at D is in the cards for me.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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