Cable Update (GBPUSD)

As strange as it is, the market gave 11 pips. This is a joke, of course.
All right. Little analysis. The chart has DownTrend and then UpSwing. UpSwing is now 185 pips in 4 days. Probability of reversal is 50.4%.



A little more explanation. Pay attention to the PA. Important levels are 6784 and 6464. If the price goes above 6784 there will be UpTrend. If the price falls below 6464 DownTrend will continue.

Let's look at H4. On 6784 are situated bears and push down. This is the yellow fan. Bulls made ​​1, 2, 3, and only the fourth attempt managed to break DownSwing (Slope). So I placed the bulls on 6464. This is a blue fan. They currently organize UpSwing (Slope). Are still strong. The speed is high. About three times higher than the average speed. First for greater protection of the bears is on the line with 6666 level. Normally we expect the price to reach this line of resistance.
And so. You see how crowded graphic really is a great map of all (at least most) support and resistance. Moreover, these displays support and resistance over time. Even in the future. If you know the rule of Gann for all angles, we left only to monitor how it is implemented.

All right. A few words about the opening on Monday and the first 4 hours. Importantly level is, of course, 6635. Above this level there is support from the blue line. It is then possible, by rule all angles, to attack the next higher blue line. We are interested only of 6666.

AS HDA posted everyone's inputs are valued and often differ.I see 6690 -67 area which is daily R2 and 78.6 fib next major confluence area.
I will start building shorts from 6660 and up.My bias is Bear fundamentally.

imho
i favor to long
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...95#post7371395
but unless a strong bearish engulfing candle or reversed PB to show up next week
cheers

I get the feeling the up side is limited but will remove the sell limit order first thing 8am Monday morning in case I am wrong in favour of watching PA.

I "suspect" we my punch north on Monday to around 67 area and create a new weekly high above the last 2 weeks highs to retest the pennant thingy breakout.

But then I will be looking for signs of a drop.

gr8... you took a long
care to share how you did it?

cheers

Mainly 1hr but also watched 4 hr rejection off the 61.8 fib and that wall of weekly PA support located to the left of the major bull candle and swing low pin bar.

Well, folks! I see that some of you do analysis on a weekly, others monthly graphics. Some time ago someone asked about periods of MA or EMA, irrelevant. I think all this is related to the concept of "Fractals". Fractals are something that as to divide or as to multiply, it looks the same. I guess you've heard the assertion that markets are fractal. How do you also understand this? Here I will try to set out my understanding. Is it true or false? Who knows?
First. Basic fractal is a daily graphic and a year includes 256 days. All other fractals are obtained by division or multiplication by two. Here is what I get.

Now the graphs of two indicators on fractals. The first indicator is MurreyMath. While the second indicator is nonlinear channels.
First the main fractal and fractasl obtained with the multiplication.

And now the fractals obtained with the division.

GU H1

Price made a higher high, but bottom of chart is MACD, and there is divergence, the momentum in MACD is decreasing and I would anticipate a trend change, downwards is possible soon

As to definitions, my understanding of fractals in terms of charts and wave forms is that they are extremes made in the price, high or low, determined if the previous 2 and next 2 candles for the given timeframe are either higher (when price had made a higher high) or not going lower (after price had made a new low) . Imagine the 5 fingers of your hand. The middle finger is a fractal as it is the longest, with thumb and one finger and two other fingers of same hand not being so long. To me these fractals become the support or resistance levels to watch, and I like to look for surges beyond established fractals as being breakouts which can be profitable to ride, usually when they are in the direction of the trend. There is a free indicator for fractals on MT4 in the indicators, Bill Williams area. I have added this to an example chart attached.

The concept you are describing is interesting but I don't think it comes under the normal definition of fractals

Yes. There is such a thing in MT4. But I'm talking about another. EW theory itself is built on the fractal principle. Every "big" wave is made up of the same but "small" waves. That are composed of more "smaller" waves, etc. This is a fractal.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractal

I have not invented this concept. I found her in the article MurreyMath. Just here trying to show how I understand it.

http://tradinglib.com/indicators/murrey-math

The problem arises when I see an analysis of the monthly chart, then I think over a period of 16 or 32 years. Nobody does that. They shall consider the last two or three bars.

OK, perhaps for your research we ought to look up the Kondratiev wave cycle. Although that one might relate more to 50 years!

I'm a great believer in these cycles, seen in Elliott waves and which repeat themselves in multiple timeframes. Fractal geometry exists in the structure of the markets, just like it exists in nature perhaps looking at the universe down to leaves of a tree, down to snowflakes and things which they eye can't see as per the work of Mandelbrot

What I would like to understand better is the usual wavelength if we might say so of a market for a given timeframe and whether this understanding would help us anticipate turning points in the cycle. Some people, RSI watchers work on 14 bars, MACD users work on 26, Williams works on 34, others work on 63 periods, some bang on about 200MA til the cows come home too!

Fractals

Monthly moan ending March 2014

Spring’s kiss upon the fields of France always brings with it a sensation of colours. The varied hues of change inviting an orchestra of avian chorus to burst out and subsequently lift one’s mood. Accompanying this change to what has been, for the most part, a sodden winter filled with depressions of many kinds, has been the promise of more profitable times ahead.

Not for me, however.

You see, in what seems to have become something of a tradition, my little abode in the countryside is nominated as the place to be ‘seen’ as the climate turns more temperate. As such, my wife invites along numerous friends from varied professions. This always includes that banker, and his social services-working wife. A nice enough lady, but one that seems to live in a bubble of rose-infused socialism; and which probably explains why she fails to see the empty pot that France is issuing cheques against… she never fails to see the wine, I will add.

Anyway, as can be expected from such functions, and just like last year, the hours preceding the cordial smiles, polite chatter, and the Englishman secretly seething at the freeloaders enjoying a fare that is more than I would normally eat all week, was filled with blood, sweat and tears. Well, for my wife more than me, as she set up camp in the kitchen. I, being made of English stock, spent much of my time being beaten away from the dishes being prepared, or dashing off to the shops in order to hunt down that elusive ingredient.

And so it was that once again les rosbif here was required to trundle off in his ageing Land Rover; in order to track down a special type of olive that, required as company for a Corsican recipe of veal, would be served alongside this main dish.

Turning on the vehicle radio as I settled down to a few hours of escape, I listened to how France was, once more, to break its promise to the European Union. This time, it was to do with reducing its public deficit to under the EU-agreed upper threshold of three percent. No surprise there (for broken promise, and also control of its deficit obligations) and that it would most likely not keep its word in 2015, either. Good news for the banker’s wife, I thought.

Indeed, I recall that recently France was stating that it would cut its budget deficit by some 40 billion Euros, whilst at the same time not cutting any provision in social services, or increase in taxes for the peasants: explaining that France was in a strong position to weather the storm blowing over EuroLand. Hmm… the insouciance with which France cooks it books is rather disgusting. As, too, are the numbers of people being forced to lick cake crumbs from the floors as they realise how much of a sham the promises from the castle towers are.

Needless to say, taxes are up, services are down, and I’m paying more to entertain those that hold positions of employment within the professions taking bread from my table. A table that in the evening of the free food and wine for all, I was made to sit at the wrong end of… basically, I was last in the queue.
And just like last year, it was the social service worker that brought the issue of finance to the table: once again complaining about the quality of funding being offered to support local cultural heritage initiatives. I, just as I did last year, quipped that with something approaching a thousand cows to one person in this neck of the woods, such initiatives were a little irrelevant to the present local economy. I then went on to offend; by stating that any monies would be better spent on training people how to milk an udder, as opposed to producing a map of ancient footpaths that a tourist – if ever one was to visit these parts – could use to walk through the countryside.

The banker, just like last year, appeared to nod in agreement to my statement, whilst avoiding an immediate defence of his wife’s position by helping himself to more of the olives. This act of consumption was, I think, deliberate, as it curtailed his ability to speak. I’ll also point out that as the eldest of the guests, he was afforded the honour of being seated closest to the kitchen. Therefore, he could decide upon what to pass down the table as it was served. Bastard.

I, being the youngest, was placed at the bottom, and was responsible for accumulating the empty dishes in my area, which prevented there being space for much else. I near panicked at one stage as it appeared that my glass would have to be sacrificed for additional room – and it is a large table – but averted any disaster of forced sobriety by finishing the remainder of the champignon entrée, and thus was able to remove the dish.

Hey, if I was to forego some of the culinary presentations, I sure as hell was not going to forego feeling satiated come the end of the evening.

The conversation quickly descended into the realities on the ground, and in particular, the real rate of employment within France. It’s looking grim… for those that want entry to the feast that is fulltime employment in France. With strong labour laws and generous holiday entitlements, it is extremely costly for an employer to hire anybody, and so the recent trend for the past few years has been to take on contract workers when needed - a trend that, ostensibly, is becoming increasingly permanent; albeit with a negative gradient as fewer and fewer contracts are being offered.

This employment trend, I suggested, skews the real situation, but helps with the serving of official figures to the public.

Turning to the banker – busily helping himself to another scoop of the Corsican veal dish, and by association, my lunch the following day - I asked what his thoughts were upon French GDP.

Whilst most present assumed a glaze not too indifferent to that seen on some of the by now desiccating hors d'œuvres, the banker’s response was his standard: “We may have long holidays, but we are productive.” I wish I had had a German guest at this point, as I’m sure they would have choked somewhat – and not because of the olives.

Productive?

Erm, with each serving of French growth forecasts, the dollop to be expected is reduced. Similar to, I thought, the amount of dessert that I received. It was another crème brûlée concoction that each guest spooned out for themselves. And to be fair to the banker, he took the least… probably because he was stuffed with olives and veal. However, I had to feign contentment at the quantities of other food that I had already consumed, and encourage my guests to eat their fill. Which they surely did, and which reminded me somewhat of how much France takes from the EU. Burp!

And so the end of the evening arrived, and with it, my chance to check on what was left. Much like the young elsewhere in Europe, I was able to find scraps here and there that would keep me going until the next day, but nothing of substance that would enable me to not have to worry too much about what I could put on the table the next day.

Which MurreyMath?

Mr 45Conor, always enjoy your postings, there is usually something to glean fundemently from them lol.

godim extesive research on fractuals could be a fasinating project, however you aludded to the end already, confusion. What time frame, where does it start where does it end. To get a fractual of something you have to have more at times and less at times , correct? Figuring out what caused there to be more or less of something would seem a better angle I would think. In the markets case was it more buying or more selling? With all the different players and different agendas in the fx market and how the markets are tied togather I dont think there will ever be a magic fractual that will turn a market a certain way for long . Its extended buying or selling that makes the fractuals the way I see it. I am not a rocket scientist by the way, they tend to over complicate the simplist of things anyway.

wiseambition, you mentioned how they are found in nature , as in your tree leaf example , would it not be the weather the tree was growing in that caused what the fractual appeared as. Was it hot , was it cold, was it dry was it wet etc etc. If you want to talk waves lol, what caused the waved , somebody throwing a pebble in the ocean or an under water earthquake or volcanic eruption etc. Trying to figure out a usual wave length is a moot point because they all are going to be a little different because what causes them are always just a little different

With all that said , can they be used for trading , my answer would have to be yes but not thru extesive math equations or hours of number crunching on the weekends , ( get out dont even think about them clear your head, lol). You can look at the previous fractuals in the form of last years or last month weeks or the privous day whatever your time period high or low or midpoint and ask your self has anything changed from the period before etc.

As in the case of the gbp something did change, More buying then selling came in . Wether it was shorts closing or new longs coming in who knows but it changed. It didnt take out last weeks low. it then got above Fridays mid point, a fractual of Fridays trading, it then went up and hit last weeks pivot point , a fractual of last weeks trading range, it got thru that and used the mid point of Tuesdays trading for support and went on up using Wednesdays midpoint for support, finishing the week close to last weeks high. If you look at the infamous 4 hour chart, whether its the rsi a stochastic, williams percent r macd they have probably been aiming up all week. Not a good pair to have been trying to short for any length of time after monday. Wiseambiton, the area marked in the stochs was probably an elliot wave trade , the wave traders that traded it made out well if they took their profit monday as it looks many did.

In conclusion , I personally have found it much more profitable using "fractuals" in the form of prvious periods high, lows , midpoints as a reason to join a move as opposed to fighting a move based on what I precieve to buying or selling based on what is showing on the chart. Let the big money find the turing points. Have a great one all.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...12#post5597412

Dont want anyone to get the wrong idea , Im not knocking fractuals or figuring them out by any means , if they help some retail traders take a bite out of this market Im all for it , Im just saying for the most part they are already figured out for you on in the previous price action and in the price patterns developing. I day trade mostly using the weekly and daily levels but have started trying some longer term trades using the quarterly levels,a lot less trades but it has been a very good quarter lol.

Here is a longer term period , the daily chart of the gbp, the quarterly pivot was definitly a place to look for buying, had a couple nice long trades from there , had a few stop outs for small losses when it dropped below it , but zooming down to a 4 hour chart and seeing the pattern that develped over a 4 day period it was in with a sizeable chunk and it turned out very well. My next quarter could be crap lol but Im enjoying this one.

That one little doji candle or what ever the proper candlestick term is for it makes one wonder if every trading room across the globe was on the phone with each other saying buy buy buy, because after a day or so it ripped out of there like it was fired from a cannon. I think it was that little candle that tripped 45Condors guppy profile chart with all the averages coiled togather like a spring that flung it up there . Any how, enough from me, cheers all