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  • #6,221
  • Mar 27, 2014 10:57am Mar 27, 2014 10:57am
TA = ?

I know that PA is an acronym for Price action, what is TA?
(it is likely not the TA that comes to my perverted male mind)
  • #6,222
  • Mar 27, 2014 11:04am Mar 27, 2014 11:04am
You're going to feel stupid when I tell you.

TA = Technical Analysis!
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #6,223
  • Mar 27, 2014 11:06am Mar 27, 2014 11:06am
Quoting Calculus
Hey, let's calm down everyone Both 60m and IAS are right, just coming from different angles. IAS - Yes, billions have been made over the years via TA, a lot has been lost as well. What's interesting is that many of the very successful system traders in the past are really struggling lately. Michael Platt a big hedge fund guy employs some Brazilian lady who's supposed to be one of the best system developers on the planet and her funds have been really lousy for a few years. I suppose the right thing to say is yes TA works, but not for the majority....
I'm pretty sure more has been lost using TA than won, remember for every winning trade there will be a losing trade...

I think the important point to grasp is we are only guessing when we enter the market because all we have to go on is the past, that can be a good indication of where we may go next, but has zero certainty.

If you study the most successful funds nearly all have win rates below 50%, they know for sure they cannot predict price....but... and this is key, when price does go their way they make the very most out of it.

There is a reason the top traders have all been trend followers, because big wins will save you from the uncertainty of your entries...

peace bro...
tradewith60
  • #6,224
  • Mar 27, 2014 11:11am Mar 27, 2014 11:11am
EA H4 shorts. +800 so far

guess where the high is in a down trend and then wait.

You don't have to hold forever, but successful traders do not trade intraday.

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tradewith60
  • #6,225
  • Mar 27, 2014 11:25am Mar 27, 2014 11:25am
Quoting 60minuteman
EA H4 shorts. +800 so far guess where the high is in a down trend and then wait. You don't have to hold forever, but successful traders do not trade intraday. {image}
60min, I see in your example that on your first position, there are 9 candles that price already started making higher lows, so if i may ask why would you short on the top.
  • #6,226
  • Mar 27, 2014 11:39am Mar 27, 2014 11:39am
Quoting pullice
{quote} 60min, I see in your example that on your first position, there are 9 candles that price already started making higher lows, so if i may ask why would you short on the top.
1.I had decided the trend was short on the higher TF, So I'm looking for the highs to sell into that trend. I'm often wrong but If I hold the winners it won't matter.

2.Because I sell at the highs if I am right then I will get the best RR and stand the most chance of surviving any retraces.

3. Just at the point when everyone is convinced it is long will always the best time to go short - not because of any technical indicator
tradewith60
  • #6,227
  • Mar 27, 2014 12:01pm Mar 27, 2014 12:01pm
This is really confusing for me,

The monthly charts on EU is showing an uptrend.
The weekly charts is showing a down trend
The daily and 4 hourly charts are showing downtrend as well, I know its impossible to predict the future price but I sit and stare at the screen and confused as hell, Should I buy or sell? If I buy what if this is a major trend change downwards over the next months. If I sell then what if I am at the end of a correction and the price will eventually start to go up.

Any advice would be highly appreciated
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  • #6,228
  • Mar 27, 2014 12:08pm Mar 27, 2014 12:08pm
Quoting pullice
This is really confusing for me, The monthly charts on EU is showing an uptrend. The weekly charts is showing a down trend The daily and 4 hourly charts are showing downtrend as well, I know its impossible to predict the future price but I sit and stare at the screen and confused as hell, Should I buy or sell? If I buy what if this is a major trend change downwards over the next months. If I sell then what if I am at the end of a correction and the price will eventually start to go up. Any advice would be highly appreciated {image} {image}
pm'd you.
tradewith60
  • #6,229
  • Mar 27, 2014 12:25pm Mar 27, 2014 12:25pm
Inserted Video
tradewith60
  • #6,230
  • Mar 27, 2014 12:45pm Mar 27, 2014 12:45pm
TA is in fact "looking at charts and guess price next move", is there a better way to define TA???

it is understandable that someone will disagree with you if you simply say TA is bull...

what do you say? lol. btw, nice short on EUR.

Quoting 60minuteman
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S7H-MVPlGJw
  • #6,231
  • Mar 27, 2014 12:52pm Mar 27, 2014 12:52pm
Quoting charvo
TA is in fact "looking at charts and guess price next move", is there a better way to define TA??? it is understandable that someone will disagree with you if you simply say TA is bull... what do you say? lol. btw, nice short on EUR. {quote}
The important part is knowing that the analysis can not be relied upon to make you profit, profit comes from having winners bigger than losers. People who believe in TA tend to think profits will come from them/their system being right more than it is wrong... this is the trap.

Once you accept that you are essentially guessing at entry then you know exactly where you need to focus, not in the past, but in the future... your exit.

It is almost impossible to find funds that have high win rates, they focus on profit because they know that TA can only give a clue in an uncertain random market.
tradewith60
  • #6,232
  • Mar 27, 2014 2:18pm Mar 27, 2014 2:18pm
Quoting Calculus
You're going to feel stupid when I tell you. TA = Technical Analysis!

Yup, I do
:-)
LOL
sometimes the brain does not work
Thanks!
  • #6,233
  • Mar 28, 2014 4:47am Mar 28, 2014 4:47am
Quoting Calculus
{quote} I try to make a point agreeing with you IAS, also trying to calm the situation down, yet you insult me by calling me PUS. Charming...
Just ignore him Calculus.

Over 1000 pips up for the week, doesn't matter his opinion, only profit matters in trading.

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tradewith60
  • #6,234
  • Edited 8:33am Mar 28, 2014 4:52am | Edited 8:33am
He's ignored all right. Just a shame I wasted 2 mins of my life yesterday replying to his post. That 2 mins could have been put to much more productive use, like picking my nose.

Nice net profits there.
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #6,235
  • Mar 28, 2014 5:07am Mar 28, 2014 5:07am
slightly annoying guy, but another example of how we fool ourselves to protect us from what we don't want to accept.

Who wants to accept that they're relying on guessing for our financial wellbeing?

As soon as you accept that your analysis is useless and it's all about money management and emotion then you can make money trading.

that is not to say there is no benefit in analysis but you have to accept that it can only help in timing and location, it has no certainty attached to it.

Inserted Video
tradewith60
  • #6,236
  • Mar 28, 2014 6:09am Mar 28, 2014 6:09am
Quoting 60minuteman
slightly annoying guy, but another example of how we fool ourselves to protect us from what we don't want to accept. Who wants to accept that they're relying on guessing for our financial wellbeing? As soon as you accept that your analysis is useless and it's all about money management and emotion then you can make money trading. that is not to say there is no benefit in analysis but you have to accept that it can only help in timing and location, it has no certainty attached to it. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lxXAFNGB0mY
Depends on the tf you look at - yeah trying to pick tops and bottoms on a 5 min chart is a short cut to the poor house.

But take a look at the daily CADCHF chart of the last 18 mths - not quite random I believe.

Personally I don't think that TA is useless - but most ppl who use it are looking for the wrong things. i.e. tops and bottoms.
  • #6,237
  • Mar 28, 2014 7:28am Mar 28, 2014 7:28am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Depends on the tf you look at - yeah trying to pick tops and bottoms on a 5 min chart is a short cut to the poor house. But take a look at the daily CADCHF chart of the last 18 mths - not quite random I believe. Personally I don't think that TA is useless - but most ppl who use it are looking for the wrong things. i.e. tops and bottoms.
Hi Stew... I'm not great at being succinct, I think what i'm trying to say is the trader needs to have the mindset that TA is fallible and can never be a certainty, then he can switch his focus to what really makes us profit. Random events (buying and selling) will make repeatable patterns for sure, but, we have to be able to put them into context.

i think alot of traders spend all their time thinking that just as long as they get good at technical analysis then their win rate will improve and then they will start making money. I beleive it's much easier to accept that you will most likely lose at least half your entries in a random market and switch my focus to winning big.

Both approaches can work, but based on FF it's easy to see what most of the losers are doing!
tradewith60
  • #6,238
  • Mar 28, 2014 7:56am Mar 28, 2014 7:56am
Quoting 60minuteman
slightly annoying guy, but another example of how we fool ourselves to protect us from what we don't want to accept. Who wants to accept that they're relying on guessing for our financial wellbeing? As soon as you accept that your analysis is useless and it's all about money management and emotion then you can make money trading. that is not to say there is no benefit in analysis but you have to accept that it can only help in timing and location, it has no certainty attached to it. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lxXAFNGB0mY
This guys is talking bullshit,it's all about supply and demand,nothing else.If there is no demand for something,price will drop,if there is too much demand and less supply price will rise.
Use your everyday examples,when you go to store,to buy fuel for your car etc.Forex is just any other market.
  • #6,239
  • Mar 28, 2014 8:21am Mar 28, 2014 8:21am
Quoting timos
{quote} This guys is talking bullshit,it's all about supply and demand,nothing else.If there is no demand for something,price will drop,if there is too much demand and less supply price will rise. Use your everyday examples,when you go to store,to buy fuel for your car etc.Forex is just any other market.
ok so you can guarantee that supply will be there next time? no you can't, supply and demand in the past is a clue, nothing more.

Of course buying and selling moves the market we all accept that, but do you really believe that you can rely on what happened in the past to predict the future?

If you want to use everyday examples, then go to the shop, see the price of coffee then try and predict the price next year based on that.
tradewith60
  • #6,240
  • Mar 28, 2014 8:57am Mar 28, 2014 8:57am
hope we can get back on topic, position trading, entry irrelevant....

I will keep posting my entries here, I'm attempting a gold short move, trend seems to be turning short again.

H4 GOLD +230
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tradewith60
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