Not the Ukraine this time, but it's BUBA-Chief Weidmann's fault: Apparently he for the first time publicly mentioned large-scale bond purchases by the ECB as an acceptable response to deflation threats. Coming only 10 days before the next ECB rate decision, Mr Market got a bit jumpy. However, if I remember correctly, Weidmann recently also said that the current EUR/USD exchange rate of around 1.38 is no threat to price stability and that he does not at this point see a threat of deflation in the EZ. So my take is that this is an attempt at jawboning rather than an implied announcement of impending ECB action. Even if the ECB were about to act big time (Mario's BAZOOKA 2.0), the SNB has made clear that it stands ready not only to buy unlimited EUR to protect 1.20, but also to take other measures, which expressly include negative rates, and the IMF has made the same recommendation to the SNB just a few days ago. So in my personal opinion, whatever the ECB decides to do on April 3rd, the EUR/CHF long strategy remains intact as long as Russia does not stage a full scale invasion triggering a military confrontation with the West (..which would not exactly be in their military, political or economic interest). So all I can say to my fellow EUR/CHF bulls is: Keep calm and carry on!
- #11,682
- Mar 27, 2014 11:41am Mar 27, 2014 11:41am
Not the Ukraine this time, but it's BUBA-Chief Weidmann's fault: Apparently he for the first time publicly mentioned large-scale bond purchases by the ECB as an acceptable response to deflation threats. Coming only 10 days before the next ECB rate decision, Mr Market got a bit jumpy. However, if I remember correctly, Weidmann recently also said that the current EUR/USD exchange rate of around 1.38 is no threat to price stability and that he does not at this point see a threat of deflation in the EZ. So my take is that this is an attempt at jawboning...
{quote} Now you want to teach me how to think boy!! I don't care about your strategy and its totally useless even if its one of or both strategies that can only be martingale or long term. If it is the first, it is useless because you will want to add more money at every drawdown because you don't know what levels you're longing at, and what profit can be done from longing 1.24, 1.23, 1.2250, 1.22 and so on, when will all match up, next year?If it is the second, can you find one trader who made remarkable profits from trading EC long term?
...
1) my strategy is not martingale, in basic terms is very similar to yours
2) its important how much money im willing to risk, because if i would like to risk around 150 k USD, you would be right, but for this special pair, which is my favorite for last two years im ready to risk around 400 - 550 k USD right now.
So:
in range 1.23 - 1.24 -> bought 19 lots
in range 1.22 - 1.23 -> bought 40 lots
in range 1.21 - 1.22 -> bought 100 lots
in case of 1.20 - 1.21 -> ready to buy another 200 lots
----------------------------------------------------------------------
SL 1.1970, as you can see, if i will get better price, better TP:SL ratio im ready to start buying more .. the reason why i bought even at price 1.2370 is that
i like to be even with small position in market. (each trader is unique, so i like to trade like this)
3) Right now im focusing on 1.2350 level.
4) I dont care, if it will take month or year to get to the profit range, im getting swaps + i dont trade only this pair.
(EURUSD, USDJPY + investing into silver, gold and longterm in S&P500, S&P Dividend aristocrats, FTSE and EUROSTOXX50)
Have a nice day.
My blog: forex-scalping.com | Exponencial money management is the key!
- #11,688
- Edited 2:04am Mar 28, 2014 1:45am | Edited 2:04am
- | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,247 Posts
- #11,693
- Mar 28, 2014 8:42am Mar 28, 2014 8:42am
- | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,247 Posts
{quote} dey cud push it, but not for much.
- #11,695
- Mar 28, 2014 9:37am Mar 28, 2014 9:37am
- | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,247 Posts
{quote} naaa, the market was right, not me
That reminds me why i never made any money hedging
I never knew when to close the hedge off
- #11,697
- Mar 28, 2014 2:24pm Mar 28, 2014 2:24pm
@brinks Yeah, EC moves nearly unpredictably compared to other pairs I trade. However, there was a near always technical reason for that in my view.
It jumps smoothly from a technical level to the other even when it had been dropping down, major supports had big influence so far.
The problem that you named it not respecting technical levels is not in the general view but detailed one, as EC had ""no follow up"" by bulls when breaking past resistances that must turn to supports, despite I realized that happens mostly in the same day candle. If had waited for a new day candle to open, there was no headache of carrying a position from up levels, just like the before 2 day candle proved.
Its surely a tricky strategy to follow when trading EC, breakout is much successful with other pairs that as a trader feel more relaxed continuing with market momentum that is not found in EC trading, this is what can be seen in the 9 hours going up to 1.2233 and in 2 hours it bangs down all gains, this mainly don't happen in other pairs, unless we talk about very high or very low levels or in some big news like NFP, ECB, FOMC, but with EC it does that like BS.
Again, technically there's always a reason but when the same is happening just from one side(down), that means outer forces dragging it down but for sure same who took it to 1.2234 for no reason, can take it to 1.23 or more at an unexpected time, the problem would be "WHEN", for example thought the volatility of the 1.2234 movement will be followed by momentum, this is why I longed 1.2215 and that was cautiously, knowing it can do the opposite like said in an above post..etc
Yesterday, Longed EC 1.2178 took profit 1.2200, today my pending long at 1.2179 was f***ed(not filled) by maybe a fraction pip. Was very busy from morning and when checked my accounts through ipad, EC had already set its low and was at 1.2187(game finish for long entry)
Anyways, no big deal, currently carrying 1.2215 Long, this candle will close up 1.2192 but it better close up or near 1.2200 for another jump to 1.2230 or more next week. A Sunday open up 1.2200 and am adding a long there for around 1.2250 TP with the 1.2215 Long.
About hedging, it can be very successful in EC trading despite I only use it time to time and always preferred doing it at higher levels.
1.2170 to 1.2180 was a clear TP for bears like I posted these levels 2 days ago, difference than other pairs is accepting to TP for lower pips.
When trading at right technical levels, you would not go wrong most times.
Nice Weekend Folks
It jumps smoothly from a technical level to the other even when it had been dropping down, major supports had big influence so far.
The problem that you named it not respecting technical levels is not in the general view but detailed one, as EC had ""no follow up"" by bulls when breaking past resistances that must turn to supports, despite I realized that happens mostly in the same day candle. If had waited for a new day candle to open, there was no headache of carrying a position from up levels, just like the before 2 day candle proved.
Its surely a tricky strategy to follow when trading EC, breakout is much successful with other pairs that as a trader feel more relaxed continuing with market momentum that is not found in EC trading, this is what can be seen in the 9 hours going up to 1.2233 and in 2 hours it bangs down all gains, this mainly don't happen in other pairs, unless we talk about very high or very low levels or in some big news like NFP, ECB, FOMC, but with EC it does that like BS.
Again, technically there's always a reason but when the same is happening just from one side(down), that means outer forces dragging it down but for sure same who took it to 1.2234 for no reason, can take it to 1.23 or more at an unexpected time, the problem would be "WHEN", for example thought the volatility of the 1.2234 movement will be followed by momentum, this is why I longed 1.2215 and that was cautiously, knowing it can do the opposite like said in an above post..etc
Yesterday, Longed EC 1.2178 took profit 1.2200, today my pending long at 1.2179 was f***ed(not filled) by maybe a fraction pip. Was very busy from morning and when checked my accounts through ipad, EC had already set its low and was at 1.2187(game finish for long entry)
Anyways, no big deal, currently carrying 1.2215 Long, this candle will close up 1.2192 but it better close up or near 1.2200 for another jump to 1.2230 or more next week. A Sunday open up 1.2200 and am adding a long there for around 1.2250 TP with the 1.2215 Long.
About hedging, it can be very successful in EC trading despite I only use it time to time and always preferred doing it at higher levels.
1.2170 to 1.2180 was a clear TP for bears like I posted these levels 2 days ago, difference than other pairs is accepting to TP for lower pips.
When trading at right technical levels, you would not go wrong most times.
Nice Weekend Folks
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.