Disliked{quote} i watch wallmart and copper for a bellwether on china. i am not into the amounts or if there is a crash or not there. the arab spring started as the usd was high and oil prices were lower. some had a problem with food commodity prices being higher comparably to oil then. in the chart wallmart missed a target and went higher, when this happens most times it will come back to the target. if it does, it will break a bottom that has a second target, lower then the missed one (61.65). using wallmart as a guide, china seems to have problems with...Ignored
When I see copper, what comes to my mind is consumer surplus. For those who don't know, consumer surplus is what you are willing to pay vs what you actually pay. A lot of stuff at walmart, I am not willing to pay much higher than what it is listed for, so I am not saving much money on sales aka my consumer surplus is low. But contrary to that, I am sure a lot of consumers of copper have high level of consumer surplus right now.
I understand what you are doing with copper, but as far as walmart, the flaw keeping me from agreeing with you on that, .. sorry not agree, but what is keeping me from using that is the fact that we don't know Walmarts market share. I used our local/state grocery supplier earlier as an example, they are kicking walmarts ass up and down the street here in Texas. HEB is partnering with China (china is investing into) on transport from Southern Mexico.
my (long) point being ... China is taking the path of least resistance to get their product somewhere. That (locally) is becoming avenues that aren't walmart. Did walmart overplay their strong arm? i think so ...
Flow is from Mexico port (import from China) onto a train, to the port hubs in Texas and direct/exclusive distribution to HEB. over the past 20 years, HEB has boomed down here, Howard Butte (family et al) is worth 7-8 (as of 2012) billion, all private, all taken out of walmarts hands. I am sure the same story exist else where.
I think a trend is becoming local, people are starting to realize that when they buy local, the money stays local, and their money doesn't go to expansion in other states/countries. I think the weakening in Walmart is the future market share of walmart, I think investors won't pullout because of crash concerns, it will be because of growth concerns. What dividends can walmart pay in the future with shrinking margins and a bad reputation.
I dont' watch new lows for markets crashing, I watch to see at what point people find value in something.
I am at the port every once in a while. My concern will be when traffic is low there. Any crash in china soon, I think will be short lived.
Want to know what I am watching for in China to make or break them?
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/a-shares.asp
and real estate.
If they open up land to be owned by citizens (and even better, foreigners) I think that will be a big plus in value.
As far as the markets in China, only way to invest big into them is through hong kong, at that point it is still hard to do.