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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #368,401
  • Mar 15, 2014 10:29pm Mar 15, 2014 10:29pm
Quoting Red Alert
{quote} Theoritically yes, fundamentally clearly that the price is too high, but for longer term technically the price still above the kumo on daily TF, based on Fibbo retracement from 1.3500 to 2.1153, the price already break 38.2 level and maybe will test 50 fibo at 1.7332, the reversal will be determine on this area even more at 61.8 % fibo. But for lower TF sure we will find some pull back and correction but confirmation for bearish if price back under 38.2 level (1.6430) RSi daily is 59.4. still there is a space for the price to move higher...
I was following this logic as well, usually there will be a corrective pull back before it shoots up if it never goes before fibo 38.2, but so far gbpusd movements have defied technical logic.
So either speculate on a directional move or just do the wait-and-see.......
  • #368,402
  • Mar 15, 2014 10:33pm Mar 15, 2014 10:33pm
this is what makes me completely out of confidence using my previous strategy. doesn't work in current market situation.

British Pound at Risk as Sentiment Flashes Warning
https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati...Picture_13.png
  • #368,403
  • Mar 15, 2014 10:45pm Mar 15, 2014 10:45pm
Quoting shon9178
this is what makes me completely out of confidence using my previous strategy. doesn't work in current market situation. British Pound at Risk as Sentiment Flashes Warning {image}
Retail sentiment is not a good indicator of direction. Just the opposite in fact.
"British Pound at risk" as retailers go short?
Not historically.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #368,404
  • Mar 15, 2014 11:45pm Mar 15, 2014 11:45pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} ? How do you define a default?
The inability to pay back their debts. Highly unlikely since they will just print more money and issue more debts
  • #368,405
  • Mar 16, 2014 12:39am Mar 16, 2014 12:39am
  •  EDG
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Nothing is fixed. Keep an open mind | 229 Posts
Potential setup for cable long when asian mkt open following the weekend provided the support for 16620 is not breached. with set tp1 at 16670 and then tp2 at 16690. Could have set the sujpport at 16610 but i dont think it would have broken and close at that low. and if so..my sentiment for long will have to be held back for reassessment.
Hindsight is useless if you never learn anything out from it
  • #368,406
  • Mar 16, 2014 1:01am Mar 16, 2014 1:01am
Quoting grandia
{quote} The inability to pay back their debts. Highly unlikely since they will just print more money and issue more debts
You mean a soft default.
  • #368,407
  • Mar 16, 2014 1:18am Mar 16, 2014 1:18am
Maybe AB = CD with flag
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #368,408
  • Mar 16, 2014 3:53am Mar 16, 2014 3:53am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Retail sentiment is not a good indicator of direction. Just the opposite in fact. "British Pound at risk" as retailers go short? Not historically.
I think that is debatable. Retailers usually are excellent in fighting trends and blowing up accounts, and usually when massive retail margin calls come the more likely a bottom/top is to happen.

IMO it is a good contrarian indicator, but to be mixed with proper fundamental, technical and order flow analysis, not to be used alone of course.
  • #368,409
  • Mar 16, 2014 4:36am Mar 16, 2014 4:36am
Quoting InsiderFX
{quote} I think that is debatable. Retailers usually are excellent in fighting trends and blowing up accounts, and usually when massive retail margin calls come the more likely a bottom/top is to happen. IMO it is a good contrarian indicator, but to be mixed with proper fundamental, technical and order flow analysis, not to be used alone of course.
My post was in relation to the chart comment that suggested the Pound is at risk because (retail) sentiment is short.
thats a bit like suggesting a school of plankton can turn an ocean tide.
I would not suggest just blindly going against the retail heard, not at all.
although having said that, based on my own observations, it's rare the majority are right.
Personally, I think paying too much attention to the dubious and manipulative headlines in the FF news section is doing no one in here any favours.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #368,410
  • Mar 16, 2014 5:02am Mar 16, 2014 5:02am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} {image} suffo i had to go out i knew the move was on and i missed the reload ,, i am in thou but missed my chance hope you ok gl
hey man good to hear you-no time for trades few weeks moving to new location... see you next time
With a good book and quality paper you can fine wipe your ass.
  • #368,411
  • Mar 16, 2014 7:01am Mar 16, 2014 7:01am
Quoting Maks
{quote} Cmon, America will not send army to Ukraine (official statement), G8 countries will not come to summit. Eastern Ukraine cities support Russia and oppose Kiev. What will bring EU down will be the actions of Right Sector (Ukrainian neo-nazi that took the power now), if they'll explode the gas pipeline.

Here is a statement from Ukrainian Right Sector that might send euro and pound down. Yarosh, the leader of neo nazi right sector (by the way the legal national guards are being formed from their fighters now) said that they will explode the gas pipeline to Europe in case of a conflict with Russia.
  • #368,412
  • Mar 16, 2014 11:08am Mar 16, 2014 11:08am
Analysis & action remain the same for next week.Take care .
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...51#post7340751
fontu
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusddaily1.png Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh41.png Size: 37 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #368,413
  • Mar 16, 2014 11:33am Mar 16, 2014 11:33am
Although the recent consolidation of the GBP/USD has created some fantastic range trading opportunities. I have taken a different outlook for next week. I keep getting drawn to the double bottom pattern just forming its last up move of the "W" check out the analysis for next week here

BOAFX Trading Signal Solutions
BOAFX Trading Signal Solutions
  • #368,414
  • Edited Mar 17, 2014 3:20am Mar 16, 2014 11:56am | Edited Mar 17, 2014 3:20am
Quoting moneytree123
Although the recent consolidation of the GBP/USD has created some fantastic range trading opportunities. I have taken a different outlook for next week. I keep getting drawn to the double bottom pattern just forming its last up move of the "W" check out the analysis for next week here BOAFX Trading Signal Solutions
Ok , instead last leg up, down to continue last leg up for down in the bear set up, immediate ( d bottom formation ) to medium term.
take care .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #368,415
  • Mar 16, 2014 12:17pm Mar 16, 2014 12:17pm
The GBP/USD continues to trade in a very narrow sideways range in dead center of the channel with the support of 1.6534 holding twice this week.

With such a narrow range holding on the gbp/usd best to stand aside. If the nearest support of 1.6534 fails I am looking to buy at the next support which is the lower channel level the pair is trading inside of right now.

Inserted Video
  • #368,416
  • Mar 16, 2014 12:45pm Mar 16, 2014 12:45pm
seems pretty bullish for the low to hold that bearish d1 ,Friday candle recovered half way up bear candle ,lots of news this weekend no idea net result
I think if the low now then goes it would be very bearish ,but inclined to look for top of 200 pip range,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp USD d1 Spot.png Size: 29 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #368,417
  • Edited 6:06pm Mar 16, 2014 3:02pm | Edited 6:06pm
Traders,

Please see previous post Sunday, March 2, 2014 re: GBP/USD
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...60#post7314060

TWO WEEKS AGO

PROBABILITY 3

The trend direction on the monthly, the weekly and the daily is Bullish.

Pull the fibs on the daily from the low at 1.62521 to the high at 1.68227 and you will see that we retraced to 0.382 and found solid support at 1.6600 and that solid support has now risen to 1.6670. If that support fails 1.6620 is the next solid support level. Please note I have stressed SOLID support level. There are other levels of support, but I'm stressing the SOLID levels.

PRESENT DAY
Today, Sunday, March 16, 2014

Look on your GBP/USD Daily Chart at the following dates.

Tuesday, March 11, 2014 GBP/USD closed at 1.66228
Wednesday, March 12, 2014, GBP/USD closed at 1.66280
Thursday, March 13, 2014, GBP/USD closed at 1.66210
Friday, March 14, 2014, GBP/USD opened at 1.66210 and closed at 1.66486

From a Position Trader's perspective 1.6620 strong support has held.

I've been long the GBP/USD from November 2013 and continue to remain long the GBP/USD to 1.7000 and long the GBP/CAD to 1.9000

Final Note:

Scenario 1
The 2009 High 1.7043 on the GBP/USD if taken out and we get a daily close above 1.70000 (when that time comes) I will be re-entering LONG again to hold for 1.80000 and then 1.90000 and then 2.0000 - This is what position trading is about.

Scenario 2
If the 2009 High 1.7043 on the GBP/USD if taken out and we get a daily close below 1.70000 (when that time comes) I will be entering short back down to the consolidation area.

FOOD FOR THOUGHT

Brokers love day traders because there is a higher probability that from the constant in and out of trades, eventual you will lose all your money.

Brokers dislike position traders because after you pay one fee to enter the trade, the position trader then sits and collect on the daily positive swaps (which is the positive interest you earn on your trade holding it for weeks) being LONG the GBP/USD for example.

So there is a lower probability of a position trader losing money and blowing his/her account, once trading in the direction of the trend in comparison to a day trader.

I remain long GBP/USD to 1.70000 and long GBP/CAD to 1.90000

IF YOU DONT SEE IT - DONT TRADE IT

HDA OUT
  • #368,418
  • Mar 16, 2014 4:01pm Mar 16, 2014 4:01pm
Still staying away form this 'Monty Python' currency... looking to go long on EUR and NZD tomorrow. Went both ways with JPY, and already out with 20+ pips on multiple positions. Time to bed! GL all!
  • #368,419
  • Mar 16, 2014 8:38pm Mar 16, 2014 8:38pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Yep, went long also, nice work. Are you mainly working from line charts now or just referring to them to capture pattern formations.

I use the line chart to note the areas where Price closes inside the Supply & demand zones - They tend to be stronger areas when price revisits ..I 'm out of my longs ( Not too sure how far it go - intraday ..) .. I'm looking at some bearish patterns on the 1hr chart which could eat into my profits , so I exited ..

Will see how the rest of the week goes ..
  • #368,420
  • Mar 16, 2014 8:51pm Mar 16, 2014 8:51pm
Quoting taomql4
{quote} I use the line chart to note the areas where Price closes inside the Supply & demand zones - They tend to be stronger areas when price revisits ..I 'm out of my longs ( Not too sure how far it go - intraday ..) .. I'm looking at some bearish patterns on the 1hr chart which could eat into my profits , so I exited .. Will see how the rest of the week goes ..
Indeed Sir, exited my long at daily open.
Weekly looks down to me, it's messy, very messy indeed.
Come with me if you want to live....
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