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EUR/CHF

  • #11,601
  • Mar 13, 2014 3:49pm Mar 13, 2014 3:49pm
Quoting SmoothOpr8er
Longs are already getting burned. The fast upward movement from 1,21 was just a very small example how things can happen very fast. Down things go very slowly torturing the longs. Goldman Sachs predicts the future as much as a referee of a football match predicts the final score of it when he is the referee of that same match. Predictons on the financial markets are never impartial. If i want the market to go to 1,20 will i say that the market will go up? An artifical market created by the SNB is to Goldman like fishing on a tank with plenty of...
agree, however GS prophecies usually widely considered as a contrarian indicator, so maybe that is why they now turned to the opposite.
they can tell what they will do - as no one follows.

yes it could very well be (if you see that chart in the last 2 years) that in a couple of days we will be at 1,24 - albeit current market conditions are not in the favour of that (ukraine mess and etc.).
  • #11,602
  • Mar 13, 2014 3:51pm Mar 13, 2014 3:51pm
Quoting SmoothOpr8er
Longs are already getting burned. The fast upward movement from 1,21 was just a very small example how things can happen very fast. Down things go very slowly torturing the longs. Goldman Sachs predicts the future as much as a referee of a football match predicts the final score of it when he is the referee of that same match. Predictons on the financial markets are never impartial. If i want the market to go to 1,20 will i say that the market will go up? An artifical market created by the SNB is to Goldman like fishing on a tank with plenty of...

Thanks pip,yes I have a couple of small longs left and won't be badly hurt if it does break lower.
  • #11,603
  • Edited 4:57pm Mar 13, 2014 3:53pm | Edited 4:57pm
Quoting pipxster
{quote} agree, however GS prophecies usually widely considered as a contrarian indicator, so maybe that is why they now turned to the opposite. they can tell what they will do - as no one follows. yes it could very well be (if you see that chart in the last 2 years) that in a couple of days we will be at 1,24 - albeit current market conditions are not in the favour of that (ukraine mess and etc.).
Goldmans FX monthly released about 1 1/2 hours ago - to keep up to date with their thoughts

https://www.dropbox.com/s/iwc6cu8y7l...20%2825%29.pdf


EDIT - deleted upload. hope you were quick / downloaded to your PC's
  • #11,604
  • Mar 13, 2014 4:12pm Mar 13, 2014 4:12pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} Goldmans FX monthly released about 1 1/2 hours ago - to keep up to date with their thoughts https://www.dropbox.com/s/iwc6cu8y7l...20%2825%29.pdf
thanks JWS seems they have "changed" their mind quite rapidly
  • #11,605
  • Mar 13, 2014 4:16pm Mar 13, 2014 4:16pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} Goldmans FX monthly released about 1 1/2 hours ago - to keep up to date with their thoughts https://www.dropbox.com/s/iwc6cu8y7l...20%2825%29.pdf
Great read. On page 24 they state "We maintain our forecasts for EUR/CHF at 1.25, 1.28 and 1.28 in 3, 6 and 12 months."
  • #11,606
  • Edited 4:30pm Mar 13, 2014 4:17pm | Edited 4:30pm
at the end of the day after wacthing very closely this pair ((also fundamentals) since almost 2,5 years (and successfully trading it) Im still in long pack
besides there could be a bad scenario - a floor test on bad market conditions for some time and meanwhile a sudden change in swiss CPI so that SNB has to raise rates and drop floor. still highly unlikely for many reasons.
  • #11,607
  • Mar 14, 2014 12:28am Mar 14, 2014 12:28am
Glad to had closed my Super Heavy Long 1.2110 at 1.2190 on Monday, as this BS is not gonna end anytime soon.
Heavy Longed EC at 1.2127 yesterday for another exit at 1.2190s(new tough resistance) if market goes there anytime soon, just betting on technical factor in this decision.
Next Long would not be before 1.2060s(not far to find EC there, esp. for a Friday!) and it would be a Super Heavy Position.
What is Chf to not retreat from an important resistance. The Dollar Index retreats in such condition.
EC had always been dragged down by unknown factors, even when a small light of bullish possibility appears and bearish view start closing up.
1.2125 is a turning price level, it would breath to test 1.2190s again, or down to 1.2060s first!
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #11,608
  • Mar 14, 2014 1:50am Mar 14, 2014 1:50am
Goldman Sachs are selling then.
  • #11,609
  • Edited 3:05am Mar 14, 2014 2:26am | Edited 3:05am
Quoting brinks
Goldman Sachs are selling then.
I dont think they do. SNB is still holding 1.20 buy as stated. they sell for around 100 pips?...
and it's not a sure money by any means
  • #11,610
  • Mar 14, 2014 3:23am Mar 14, 2014 3:23am
PPI import prices worse than expected although i know a low tier indicator but shows no inflation pressure on the swiss
  • #11,611
  • Mar 14, 2014 7:00am Mar 14, 2014 7:00am
No strength to go up. Little by little going down, 1,20 looks like a magnet. It is funny that this pair will go freely up when SNB will let go the floor.
  • #11,612
  • Mar 14, 2014 8:02am Mar 14, 2014 8:02am
I wonder if the SNB have got there bids lined up same as when they defended 1.20 last time?

Or will they come in earlier.
  • #11,613
  • Mar 14, 2014 8:10am Mar 14, 2014 8:10am
It is going down slowly like a torture. Punishing the longs is the title of this movie directed by SNB and produced by Goldman and friends
  • #11,614
  • Mar 14, 2014 9:00am Mar 14, 2014 9:00am
definitely waiting till monday to long this pair, with all the issues surrounding crimea, this pair might just gap down like it did 2 weeks ago. i'd like to long around 1.2100 or lower. but 1.2100 is a long for me, i dont mind risking 100pips down to snb's floor of 1.2000.
  • #11,615
  • Mar 14, 2014 2:46pm Mar 14, 2014 2:46pm
Quoting brinks
I wonder if the SNB have got there bids lined up same as when they defended 1.20 last time? Or will they come in earlier.
Rabobank bids are at 1,201-1,2008 for sure. no mistake to damage credibility again.

I think they are not coming in earlier, jordan is just too conservative. Anyway if theres an intervention next monday you can see it in the reserves (monday morning SNB report on webpage). Have follwed it on weekly base back in 2012. On the week of greek elections was the top intervention with +20 billion in reserves one week.
  • #11,616
  • Mar 15, 2014 2:12am Mar 15, 2014 2:12am
Quoting pipxster
{quote} Rabobank bids are at 1,201-1,2008 for sure. no mistake to damage credibility again. I think they are not coming in earlier, jordan is just too conservative. Anyway if theres an intervention next monday you can see it in the reserves (monday morning SNB report on webpage). Have follwed it on weekly base back in 2012. On the week of greek elections was the top intervention with +20 billion in reserves one week.

Thanks pip yep TJ is very conservative all it would take is a few words at a unscheduled time and they could get this a few hundred pips away from the floor without having to print any francs.

Instead they watch it creep slowly back to 1.20.
  • #11,617
  • Mar 15, 2014 5:23am Mar 15, 2014 5:23am
There was Syria, now Crimea. It's an opportunity to buy eurchf cheap. Soon we will be in a range 1,23 like before... Patience, money will come.
  • #11,618
  • Mar 15, 2014 4:59pm Mar 15, 2014 4:59pm
since snb's 2011 intervention, eurchf has barely gone below 1.20, thats about 135 pips from friday close. so this long looks pretty easy, my only fear is what if price goes down to 1.20xx and stalls there for months like it did for a good part of 2012, only to start rallying in jan 2013 after all retail longs had been frustrated.
  • #11,619
  • Mar 15, 2014 5:10pm Mar 15, 2014 5:10pm
Quoting mamalujo
since snb's 2011 intervention, eurchf has barely gone below 1.20, thats about 135 pips from friday close. so this long looks pretty easy, my only fear is what if price goes down to 1.20xx and stalls there for months like it did for a good part of 2012, only to start rallying in jan 2013 after all retail longs had been frustrated.
Nothing
You have to wait...Forex is for patient people . But only thing for waiting is SWAP. But beside swap, I thing that swap is too small for potential profit, and its also MM for you to calculate.
  • #11,620
  • Mar 15, 2014 5:15pm Mar 15, 2014 5:15pm
Quoting Urosh1
{quote} Nothing You have to wait...Forex is for patient people . But only thing for waiting is SWAP. But beside swap, I thing that swap is too small for potential profit, and its also MM for you to calculate.
definitely going to be a 'set and forget' trade on a separate account.
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