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Trading Made Simple

  • #31,881
  • Mar 7, 2014 2:12am Mar 7, 2014 2:12am
Quoting lastingwell
{quote}I don't think I need to put up examples, its already been done many times by Xaphod http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=294327 and it depends on which one is used, but if people use the original tdi, or tdi red/green then looking back after refreshing the charts will not show where the tdi was crossed at the time they would have put the trade in, it will have moved. Someone then backtesting will think they could have got into the trade earlier than they actually could have done. Which probably explains why a lot of people...

Oh I see. You are referring to the work of Xaphod. It is about the non-realtime version and the realtime version of the TDI.
For a moment I thought you discovered something different and that the TDI repaints.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #31,882
  • Mar 7, 2014 2:22am Mar 7, 2014 2:22am
Quoting Direwolf
I was watching this free webminar and thought his entry pattern had the same idea as PCRF. Check it out if you're interested. Please ignore the paypal pay thing on the page. http://www.fxjake.com/home.html
Hi Direwolf,

I read their book Naked Forex some months ago. Not cheap (costs an invest of 10 pips per 100K lot) but easy to understand trading only on basis of price action and zones.
fxFox (all times in my charts are GMT+1)
  • #31,883
  • Mar 7, 2014 2:23am Mar 7, 2014 2:23am
That valid divergence on H1 GJ?
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  • #31,884
  • Mar 7, 2014 2:27am Mar 7, 2014 2:27am
Quoting Pipmeister
{quote} hi andy, emmanuel and other experienced traders of this method. i noticed on the 4h tf and the daily tf, the green line repaints on my forward testing. so, when i find what appears to be good trades based on the new cross and angle, some of them at the end of the perior (4h or daily), ended up opposite. when there is a reversal on that particular candle, the repaint can be dramatic. so what appeared to be a good buy at the beginning of the candle could very well end up as an exit or not even an entry at the end of the tf. unless i made a...

Hi Pipmeister,

First you should know that the TDI is actually three moving moverage of the RSI data. The default is set to RSI period 13 and the price used is set to the Close price.
therefore in the RSI formula calculation, what ever happens to the close price, the RSi data will be computed. Hence any big move in the close price in raltion to the previous 13 price bars will result in a significant change in the TDI green PL , red TSl and yellow MBL lines.

Q. how do you deal with the repainting of the green line?
simple, ..
1. Always wait for the candle to close in that particular chart timeframe you trade.
2. Do not chase after big candles.
3. Learn price action using Candlestick study.
4. Know the TDI version you have and use that correctly. I use the realtime version because it updates on every price tick and does not 'repaint' in history or chart refresh.

Q. does this happen a lot?
1. Yes, when there is sudden movements in the price. A sudden huge price move in the opposite direction can cause the TDI green PL to hook backwards. Note that the green line PL is the more responsive to price volatility than the red and yellow lines. That is why we look for the 12-2 and 4-6 type of TDI conditions.

Q. does this change the way you trade the method (e.g., in the 4htf, do you wake up in the middle of the 2h to check if the trade is still valid?)
1. No, because I do not rely on TDI signal for my entry. I rely more on Candlestick Pattern for price action for trade setups and use the TDI as confirmation of the price action. There are different entry method after I see and confirm the trade setups.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #31,885
  • Mar 7, 2014 2:52am Mar 7, 2014 2:52am
Quoting emmanuel7788
EG H4 trade update: With the last H4 candle closing a Bullish Outside Bar BUOB, I decided to move stop to protect +2R and push final TP to the upper channel. {image}
My question to Emmanuel and other experienced and helpful traders - how do you guys keep the profitable trade run even during the "red" news? Big E was recommending to stay out during those times.
Thank you for your answer in advance.
Those who know don't talk. Those who talk don't know.
  • #31,886
  • Mar 7, 2014 3:04am Mar 7, 2014 3:04am
Would this be a valid enter on UJ H4?
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Those who know don't talk. Those who talk don't know.
  • #31,887
  • Mar 7, 2014 3:05am Mar 7, 2014 3:05am
Closed GJ at BE. Entered during Asian, H4 TDI was starting to cross, H1 TDI already crossed. Then LO candle pull back quite fast so I closed it at +1 pips
Attached Image
Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
  • #31,888
  • Mar 7, 2014 3:12am Mar 7, 2014 3:12am
Quoting hugecat
Would this be a valid enter on UJ H4? {image}
With NFP coming I wouldn't trade US pairs this session.
Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
  • #31,889
  • Mar 7, 2014 3:16am Mar 7, 2014 3:16am
Quoting Direwolf
{quote} With NFP coming I wouldn't trade US pairs this session.
True, I'll stay away. It's pulling back as we speak. Thank you!
Those who know don't talk. Those who talk don't know.
  • #31,890
  • Mar 7, 2014 3:29am Mar 7, 2014 3:29am
Quoting hugecat
{quote} My question to Emmanuel and other experienced and helpful traders - how do you guys keep the profitable trade run even during the "red" news? Big E was recommending to stay out during those times. Thank you for your answer in advance.
hugecat,

unfortunately the only secure way to keep the profits (or a part of them) is to close it prior to the news.
=> That's my advice for today (NFP). Lots of pairs - even the pairs not containing the USD - may get crazy and erratic moves at US NFP.

Otherwise you may stay in - have a considerably greater risk, but an even greater reward. But to survicv the news time you must set a huge stop or belief in your luck.

I see three problems with the stops during news time
- an expansion of the spread (i.e. from 2 pips to 16 pips for some short time)
- on the fast erratic moves it could be, that i.e. your B/E stop is not filled at your price, because stop orders are mostly/often turned into market orders filled at the next availlable price.
- the wide range of the news bar, going up and down, unable to derive a clear first direction (the first direction often is independet from the result of the news - unfortunately you cannot say: Good news price up and bad news price down
fxFox (all times in my charts are GMT+1)
  • #31,891
  • Mar 7, 2014 3:36am Mar 7, 2014 3:36am
Quoting fxFox.mb
{quote} hugecat, unfortunately the only secure way to keep the profits (or a part of them) is to close it prior to the news. => That's my advice for today (NFP). Lots of pairs - even the pairs not containing the USD - may get crazy and erratic moves at US NFP. Otherwise you may stay in - have a considerably greater risk, but an even greater reward. But to survicv the news time you must set a huge stop or belief in your luck. I see three problems with the stops during news time - an expansion of the spread (i.e. from 2 pips to 16 pips for some short...
fxFox,
Thank you very much for your detailed answer!
I guess that comes with practice. Cause coming back to Big E description of this TMS method, he closes all his 4H trades at 6AM Pacific, but I see traders still using this method and keep their trades going for days. Are they exiting during the news and jump back after if the trend continues?
Those who know don't talk. Those who talk don't know.
  • #31,892
  • Mar 7, 2014 3:41am Mar 7, 2014 3:41am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi itsallover, EG is approaching that trendline you mentioned... are you following? {image} regards, EMMANUEL
Hi Emmanuel,
I must say I'm not a fan of EG..... occasionally I steal glances to see whats happening . The last time I was on that pair I pulled out half of my hair because PA took 5 hours to travel 10 pips!!!! I just don't have the money to repair these bald patches in the hair salon anymore ...lol
.... laughing all the way to the bank
  • #31,893
  • Mar 7, 2014 3:59am Mar 7, 2014 3:59am
Quoting hugecat
{quote} fxFox, Thank you ........jump back after if the trend continues?
Perhaps those who trade longer term can give you a clear answer. I concentrate on H1.

But there are even differences on red news. NFP is a very special thing. Other red news have great impact but not that much as NFP.
And take a look on your charts. After news the pairs often return to their last trend direction, except there are very strong news contrary to previous expectations.

It's a question of your timeframe, lot size and corresponding stop. If you trade on daily basis you nearly cannot avoid beeing in a trade on news event, but you have a much wider stop.
If you trade on M15 you will i.e. have a stop about 20 pips to gain 30. If on news time perhaps the spread of you pair is widening out to 15 pips - what happens to your stop?

Otherwise look at days where are no news. What drives the market and produces momentum if there are none?

Sorry, there is no standard solution for this - I only can say it's a consideration between, what will I risk and what will I gain.
fxFox (all times in my charts are GMT+1)
  • #31,894
  • Mar 7, 2014 4:05am Mar 7, 2014 4:05am
Quoting fxFox.mb
{quote} Perhaps those who trade longer term can give you a clear answer. I concentrate on H1. But there are even differences on red news. NFP is a very special thing. Other red news have great impact but not that much as NFP. And take a look on your charts. After news the pairs often return to their last trend direction, except there are very strong news contrary to previous expectations. It's a question of your timeframe, lot size and corresponding stop. If you trade on daily basis you nearly cannot avoid beeing in a trade on news event, but you...
Fox, Thanx again.
I was trading on M15&M1, but really got tired of fake signals and lots of other stuff. Switched to H4 completely, just like Big E recommended and watching for entries 2 times per day only. Will see where it's gonna take me
Those who know don't talk. Those who talk don't know.
  • #31,895
  • Mar 7, 2014 4:25am Mar 7, 2014 4:25am
EURAUD H1 trade on slow market +30 pips on "break" of consolidation range.
Because of the TDI around 50 on H1 and M15 it was more an experiment and I monitored it closely and put quickly stop on B/E.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-03-07 11.00 EURAUD - profit.png Size: 140 KB
fxFox (all times in my charts are GMT+1)
  • #31,896
  • Mar 7, 2014 4:27am Mar 7, 2014 4:27am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi donbeto, Those EP SL TP lines are drawn manually using MT4 scripts. Read post #22,363. and download there. regards, EMMANUEL
Emmanuel,

Thanks for the guidance. I installed the scripts. They are working well.

Regards,
donbeto
  • #31,897
  • Edited 5:01am Mar 7, 2014 4:44am | Edited 5:01am
Quoting fxFox.mb
EURAUD H1 trade on slow market +30 pips on "break" of consolidation range. Because of the TDI around 50 on H1 and M15 it was more an experiment and I monitored it closely and put quickly stop on B/E. {image}
Nice!. I'm in the same trade but haven't exit. Price retrace back to +10 pips now. H4 TDI crossing red line give me some hope it could still move down.

update - out at +5. Too much pull back not looking good.
Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
  • #31,898
  • Mar 7, 2014 5:29am Mar 7, 2014 5:29am
US NFP in about 2 hours.
Looking at market in the past few hours, it does not look good for USD.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #31,899
  • Mar 7, 2014 5:33am Mar 7, 2014 5:33am
Quoting itsallover
{quote} Hi Emmanuel, I must say I'm not a fan of EG..... occasionally I steal glances to see whats happening . The last time I was on that pair I pulled out half of my hair because PA took 5 hours to travel 10 pips!!!! I just don't have the money to repair these bald patches in the hair salon anymore ...lol

you funny guy.

never lose sleep over trading, also not to lose hair due to trading...

EG is s special pair, highest pip $value of the lot....only trade EG when EU and GU are out of correlation.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #31,900
  • Mar 7, 2014 5:54am Mar 7, 2014 5:54am
Quoting hugecat
{quote} My question to Emmanuel and other experienced and helpful traders - how do you guys keep the profitable trade run even during the "red" news? Big E was recommending to stay out during those times. Thank you for your answer in advance.
Hi hugecat,

I think Big E’s recommendation not to trade when there is red news item is a prudent advice based on his years of trading experience.
It is advisable not to open a new trade before those red news release unless we see a probability to BE the trades before the news release hour.

For my case, I have different trading style and my money management and position sizing is very different from Big E’s.
What is important to me is my trading plan for 4H swing and I base that on my weekly Big Picture Planning and looking more to the longer timeframe. My 4H swing trades usually run 2 to 4 days and the stops are much larger and will withstand the whipsaw during news release. What is also important is also how much profit I can protect before the news release. Usually when I have more than 1.5R protected, I will stay in the trade and fight the market volatility due to news. It is the Exit Management strategy, the way we manage our trade exits/stops which will matter most how much profits we will make.

Dr Van Tharp has a popular saying: “If we want to let profits run, we must be prepared to give back 50% of what the market gave us”.
This statement is very true and I have tried and tested this using R-Multiple management method.

My EURGBP trade this week is one example which I posted to share in this thread. EURGBP is a small range pair. The daily range average is about 45pips and the weekly range is 120pips. But when we trade this pair using R-Multiple, the initial risk R is relatively small number of pips and the returns in terms of R is good just like all other pairs.

regards,

EMMANUEL
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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