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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #367,041
  • Mar 4, 2014 3:50pm Mar 4, 2014 3:50pm
Quoting Zappa
There's a very good chance this pair will revisit 1.6580 before the really big move up begins. We've cleared the roof now with today's move, inviting buyers to join in early before a percieved breakout to the upside. Meanwhile, many shorts were stopped out at 1.6740, I believe. Now a big fall to 1.6570 will stop out all the longs that just got in, and at same time invite sellers to join in the "breakout" to the downside. They will soon learn that the breakout downwards was a fake, but that won't stop most of FF from shorting at various fib levels...
Second warning here, guys.

Possible I'm wrong? Of course.

This looks very clear to me, though.
  • #367,042
  • Mar 4, 2014 4:07pm Mar 4, 2014 4:07pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Second warning here, guys. Possible I'm wrong? Of course. This looks very clear to me, though.
Until this line is violated Im long biased....
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  • #367,043
  • Mar 4, 2014 4:08pm Mar 4, 2014 4:08pm
the truck is still in 'loading zone' . The more it loads, the longer it move.
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  • #367,044
  • Mar 4, 2014 4:13pm Mar 4, 2014 4:13pm
Quoting needpips
{quote} Until this line is violated Im long biased.... {image}
Then you will get faked out, I reckon. Unless you are very quick to take profit...

I have a lot of experience drawing lines. Here's a tip, don't draw them.
  • #367,045
  • Mar 4, 2014 4:16pm Mar 4, 2014 4:16pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Then you will get faked out, I reckon. Unless you are very quick to take profit... I have a lot of experience drawing lines. Here's a tip, don't draw them.
Im sitting on my hands till we break decisively......my thought
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  • #367,046
  • Mar 4, 2014 4:18pm Mar 4, 2014 4:18pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Second warning here, guys. Possible I'm wrong? Of course. This looks very clear to me, though.

i think 1.65 is a good lower target
  • #367,047
  • Mar 4, 2014 4:19pm Mar 4, 2014 4:19pm
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  • #367,048
  • Mar 4, 2014 4:21pm Mar 4, 2014 4:21pm
oops , dodji daily close.
New candle born market gonna decide for sure up or down?? will see
I see a lower weak a bit stronger than upper weak on the black dodji ?? on my chart of course

Trade safe guys.
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #367,049
  • Mar 4, 2014 4:23pm Mar 4, 2014 4:23pm
Possible divergence?
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The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #367,050
  • Mar 4, 2014 4:25pm Mar 4, 2014 4:25pm
Quoting needpips
{quote} Im sitting on my hands till we break decisively......my thought {image}
I know you'll have to learn this on your own, but EW is another "tool" that can tossed into the garbage.

Good luck, though, man. I don't wish you any bad trades. Just giving my opinion on this as I spent A LOT of time trying to get EW and a variety of different lines to work for me. Worked against me more often than not.
  • #367,051
  • Mar 4, 2014 4:27pm Mar 4, 2014 4:27pm
Quoting needpips
{quote} i think 1.65 is a good lower target
It's definitely possible, but I don't think it will go that far. Will be a lot easier to tell when it gets down past 1.6580, but 1.6500 looks unlikely to me.
  • #367,052
  • Mar 4, 2014 4:30pm Mar 4, 2014 4:30pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} I know you'll have to learn this on your own, but EW is another "tool" that can tossed into the garbage. Good luck, though, man. I don't wish you any bad trades. Just giving my opinion on this as I spent A LOT of time trying to get EW and a variety of different lines to work for me. Worked against me more often than not.
I have a pattern recog photo memory ....mixes s/r with pattern some fibo and moon phases...the trend line just confims points.... i only enter on 4hr and abv.... its not perfect..but im about 80%.... trying to make it 95%....
  • #367,053
  • Mar 4, 2014 4:30pm Mar 4, 2014 4:30pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Second warning here, guys. Possible I'm wrong? Of course. This looks very clear to me, though.
I agree we will see this level prior to moving higher if thats where the market takes us. Curious why you chose this level? I have my reasons but would like to understand yours.
  • #367,054
  • Mar 4, 2014 4:32pm Mar 4, 2014 4:32pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} It's definitely possible, but I don't think it will go that far. Will be a lot easier to tell when it gets down past 1.6580, but 1.6500 looks unlikely to me.
there was a quick jaunt almost straight up from there (1.65).... cable is very methodical imo.....my thought is a substantial move lower may retrace that move....fwiw
  • #367,055
  • Mar 4, 2014 4:35pm Mar 4, 2014 4:35pm
here is y i think 1.65ish but after 1.6840-ish....maybe
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  • #367,056
  • Mar 4, 2014 4:54pm Mar 4, 2014 4:54pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} I agree we will see this level prior to moving higher if thats where the market takes us. Curious why you chose this level? I have my reasons but would like to understand yours.
It is not the strongest spot I've ever seen, that's for sure. The clues for me are that:

1) It is an untested spot where a small, but powerful break occurred.

2) Below this spot are a couple other spots where it could also turn, but those look tested "enough". They are not what I would consider "fully" tested, so they are possible, imo.

3) I am watching GBPNZD very closely, and will actually be long that pair soon if all goes to plan. GBPNZD picture is clearer to me than GBPUSD as far as where exactly price should definitely turn. For me, GBPNZD is already close to the bottom, so I don't think it will bottom out while GBPUSD is dropping. It is possible for that to happen. NZDUSD could drop even harder than GBPUSD at that moment, but I doubt it.

---As for why it is going up in the first place, well that's a whole nother explanation, which I have covered over the last few weeks if you care to look it up.

Good luck with your trades.
  • #367,057
  • Mar 4, 2014 4:57pm Mar 4, 2014 4:57pm
Quoting needpips
{quote} there was a quick jaunt almost straight up from there (1.65).... cable is very methodical imo.....my thought is a substantial move lower may retrace that move....fwiw
I hear ya, and you are right that most of the time the violent outbursts get tested. In this instance, however, I think it was tested "enough", and when you see a move like this that is THIS strong, many times it does not come back to the outburst.
  • #367,058
  • Mar 4, 2014 5:01pm Mar 4, 2014 5:01pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} I hear ya, and you are right that most of the time the violent outbursts get tested. In this instance, however, I think it was tested "enough", and when you see a move like this that is THIS strong, many times it does not come back to the outburst.

Here is my third reason which correlates with the ending pattern / fibo at 1.618 returns to 1.65-ish / as well as the daily trnd line (in red)

This imo supports my A plan = if higher first

edit.... notice how all the fibos also correlate with major inflections to the left......FWIW
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  • #367,059
  • Mar 4, 2014 5:05pm Mar 4, 2014 5:05pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} It is not the strongest spot I've ever seen, that's for sure. The clues for me are that: 1) It is an untested spot where a small, but powerful break occurred. 2) Below this spot are a couple other spots where it could also turn, but those look tested "enough". They are not what I would consider "fully" tested, so they are possible, imo. 3) I am watching GBPNZD very closely, and will actually be long that pair soon if all goes to plan. GBPNZD picture is clearer to me than GBPUSD as far as where exactly price should definitely turn. For me,...
Agree there were three levels where market moved up sharply and was not re tested. 6550 area being the last one left.

Along with you looking for long entry on GBP/NZD am already short on the NZD/USD various levels but it keeps pissing around.

Good luck..
  • #367,060
  • Mar 4, 2014 5:12pm Mar 4, 2014 5:12pm
Quoting needpips
{quote} Here is my third reason which correlates with the ending pattern / fibo at 1.618 returns to 1.65-ish / as well as the daily trnd line (in red) This imo supports my A plan = if higher first edit.... notice how all the fibos also correlate with major inflections to the left......FWIW {image}
You're not going to want to hear this, probably think I'm an asshole, but be VERY careful in putting any importance into fibs. Yet another popular "tool" that's worth what you paid for it, which I'm hoping was nothing, hehe.

Planetary phases, trendlines, pitchforks, fibs, EW, Gann...only serves to confuse, make people feel smart and in control.

Just look at the price on all timeframes and try to understand why it turned where it did. (Look back in history.)

Gotta go now guys..
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