So guys, based on the new situation in Russia and Ukraine, do you think that will have any affect on Euro and Sterling or not yet?
Cable Update (GBPUSD)
- #366,665
- Mar 2, 2014 11:33am Mar 2, 2014 11:33am
- Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,021 Posts
{quote} Did I ask about the current prices?
You ask did it have any affect?
Look at the current prices and you can tell if it does or not ... duh!
of course JPY, USD will somehow get stronger .... especially JPY..
But by the time the market open ... it might closed all gaps already!
- #366,666
- Mar 2, 2014 11:37am Mar 2, 2014 11:37am
With a good book and quality paper you can fine wipe your ass.
- #366,667
- Mar 2, 2014 11:40am Mar 2, 2014 11:40am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 21,377 Posts
{quote} Davit, i think Russia's intentions might not be as clean and clear as they make out. The Crimea has already been secured by Russian forces. Note RT and Reuters feeds. Safe to say the Crimea will not be returned to Ukraine. question now is, is this a repeat of Georgia.? or will Putin be satisfied with just the Crimea? Lets be honest the Russian Federation is not above Empire building. Recent history bears this out. eitherway trading will be lively. be well my friend, your shorts look to get some help
As a side note liberal left darling Obama have been strangely silent about his drone killings...
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
- #366,668
- Mar 2, 2014 11:45am Mar 2, 2014 11:45am
- | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: Buy on the rumor, sell on the news. | 265 Posts
{quote} You ask did it have any affect? Look at the current prices and you can tell if it does or not ... duh! of course JPY, USD will somehow get stronger .... especially JPY.. But by the time the market open ... it might closed all gaps already!
I'm asking about the entire situation in Ukraine and Russia and the affect on Europe economy and its affect on the currencies especially Euro and sterling.
so give me a break
- #366,669
- Mar 2, 2014 11:49am Mar 2, 2014 11:49am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Trader | 3,071 Posts
{quote} Yes my shorts on NU EU and GU will get a boast from get go.
Extremist terrorists attack the USA, the USA then conducts a genocide of epic proportions causing the collateral deaths of hundreds of thousands in another Sovereign, state.
But Obama tells Putin this is a very aggressive move....
its pretty funny really, here on the dark continent we feel very safe, we can't find oil....
- #366,670
- Mar 2, 2014 11:57am Mar 2, 2014 11:57am
- Joined Jan 2005 | Status: ~ Noblesse Oblige ~ | 1,663 Posts
{quote} duh! I don't care about the market opening price or even about the gap if it was up or down... I'm asking about the entire situation in Ukraine and Russia and the affect on Europe economy and its affect on the currencies especially Euro and sterling. so give me a break
More sounds like your demanding then asking, and to answer your demanded question.. No one can say for sure if and will it have any affect euro comes into the crosshairs that they cant side against Russia as Russia might cut off the NG (Natural gas) to the EU. So it puts risk on the EU in the short term, in terms of what they can do say about the situation without conflicting with Interests they hold with Russia. So at the time being, shorts will be put into play and those who longed the euro I mean REAL money not retail money.. Will consider to shift its money from EU because no one likes instability.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
- #366,671
- Mar 2, 2014 12:11pm Mar 2, 2014 12:11pm
- | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: Buy on the rumor, sell on the news. | 265 Posts
{quote} More sounds like your demanding then asking, and to answer your demanded question.. No one can say for sure if and will it have any affect euro comes into the crosshairs that they cant side against Russia as Russia might cut off the NG (Natural gas) to the EU. So it puts risk on the EU in the short term, in terms of what they can do say about the situation without conflicting with Interests they hold with Russia. So at the time being, shorts will be put into play and those who longed the euro I mean REAL money not retail money.. Will consider...
anyway, I totally agree with you, investors don't like in-stable market and I think this conflict will affect the Euro and sterling in a negative way, not to mention if the conflict got worse and NATO was forced to intervene... I don't see it happening for now because it is all about politic and deals (under the table) but even though Russia won't let it to lose its military base in Ukraine and will even use force to protect it, the same shit Russia does in Syria to protect its military base on the Mediterranean sea. so it is a bit complicated, no one knows what is going to happen, but for sure it will affect the European market in a bad way.
- #366,672
- Mar 2, 2014 12:11pm Mar 2, 2014 12:11pm
- Joined Jan 2005 | Status: ~ Noblesse Oblige ~ | 1,663 Posts
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
- #366,674
- Mar 2, 2014 12:19pm Mar 2, 2014 12:19pm
- Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,021 Posts
{quote} thanx bro, it wasn't demanding it was only a normal question and I expected to read such answer explaining and analysing the situation, not to send me www.xe.com link
You should know if anyone can tell you what happened...
They would be rich already. We all guessing here!
We think what will happen, however our thinking doesn't matter.
Just follow the trend and have Stop Loss put in place.
It can reverse anytime, No matter what you choose.
Just remember, we don't move the market at all....
Our positions doesn't really matter in the market.
Trading in unstable (volatile) market, can be very profitable or blow your account!
- #366,675
- Edited 3:52pm Mar 2, 2014 1:08pm | Edited 3:52pm
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: CANCELLED MEMBERSHIP | 3,116 Posts
{quote} Sorry but what does it mean.? not all options has to be achieved
You have asked a very good question and it deserves me answering. (my wife is standing over me as i write this last post)
PROBABILITY 1
Options are just one of many tools a trader can use to form an edge when trading the Spot FX. Not all options will be achieved. Trading is about probabilities and being very aware of the credible information around you, if you have access to it, helps to increase one's edge and increase one's probability when deciding to place a trade, not to place a trade, stay in a trade or to get out of a trade.
Upon typing this, the GBP/USD has been over the counter (OTC) trading over the weekend between price levels 1.67500 and 1.67105.
When your broker platform opens at 5pm eastern (New York Time) today Sunday, March 2, 2014, you will see what you traders call a GAP on your charts. I don't want to spend too much time on the rule that there are no GAPs, but just to simply share that the reason why you as traders see a GAP on your charts, is that your broker and most brokers disconnect their feed from the interbank, but the interbank doesn't close. So if your broker remained connected to the feed over the entire weekend and not disconnect from the interbank on a Friday at 5pm eastern (New York Time) you would still see the candles on your charts.
But because your broker disconnects from the interbank feed, you do not see those candles over the weekend. Traders then see the GAP and have theorized that money can be made from filling the GAP, but in truth and in fact, if your broker remained connected to the interbank feed you would not see any GAPS on your charts.
So when your broker feed comes on at 5pm Eastern (New York Time) and you see a "GAP" (as you traders call it) on your charts, please not that I have shared with you that over the weekend the GBP/USD has been trading between 1.6750 and 1.67105.
Those of you that believe in GAP trading, then would expect the GAP to be filled and hence buyers would step in to fill the GAP back up to where the market closed. - LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS.
BACK TO PROBABILITIES
Most of the traders that frequent these chat rooms are day traders and day traders focus on mostly 4H times frames and lower. Position traders focus on yearly, monthly weekly, daily and as low as 4H time frames. We all know that the larger time frames resistance and support levels are much more significant and more likely to hold than smaller time frames support and resistance levels.
With that being said - I can now share with you added information for you to look at and come to your own conclusion.
At the end of every month, every week, and every day - a position trader looks at his/her charts and re-assess the status of the market and what the charts are showing. Day traders are badly affected when trading the forex with the noise on the smaller time frames. Skillful scalpers like CLOGGIE, ATTILA, PAYTHELIMIT & GATORINLA to name a few, can easily walk through the noise in the market blindfolded and make money scalping. So each trading style is an art that requires discipline. I would strongly suggest, all day traders pay attention to post coming from these traders, if scalping is your preferred style of trading.
PROBABILITY 2
The GBP/USD if you look on a weekly chart and a daily chart have both formed an ascending pennant.
What is an ascending pennant?
The market creates equal levels of resistance and higher levels of support. The lows of the support are ascending and the breakout on these pennants are usually to the north, but NOTHING IN THIS MARKET IS 100% hence PROBABILITIES. Both the weekly and the daily time frames have broken out of the pennants and held above the resistance.
PROBABILITY 3
The trend direction on the monthly, the weekly and the daily is Bullish.
Pull the fibs on the daily from the low at 1.62521 to the high at 1.68227 and you will see that we retraced to 0.382 and found solid support at 1.6600 and that solid support has now risen to 1.6670. If that support fails 1.6620 is the next solid support level. Please note I have stressed SOLID support level. There are other levels of support, but I'm stressing the SOLID levels.
PROBABILITY 4
BUY ZONE
We are in the buy zone of the Weekly, Daily, 4H, 1H and even the 30M time frames.
PROBABILITY 5
HARMONIC BEAT
As the financial markets vibrate in a natural Fibonacci numerical sequence, they also vibrate in a harmonic sequence called Harmonic Beats.
Every 60 pips the market moves is a harmonic beat and these harmonic beats form on all time frames.
Look at the daily - from the low at 1.62521 to the high at 1.68227 the market moved at total of 570pips
570pips divided by 60pips (1 harmonic beat) = 9.5 Beats that the GBP/USD moved up
It then retraced from the high at 1.68227 to form a higher low at 1.65836, a total of 240pips roughly
240pips divided by 60pips (1 harmonic beat) = 4 beats that the GBP/USD retraced
One can then expect (based on HARMONICS, if you believe in it) another move of 9.5 Beats (570pips from the low at 1.65836 to move up to close out at a high of 1.71536)
1.65836 PLUS 570pips (9.5 Harmonic Beats) = 1.71536 HIGH
CAUTION CAUTION CAUTION CAUTION CAUTION
Remember that the 2009 HIGH is 1.70500 so STIFF RESISTANCE is at this LEVEL so bulls would be looking to take profit and a nice shorting opportunity would present itself.
Hope this information helps you as you continue to analyze your trades.
HDA OUT
EDIT - The wife wouldn't allow me to finish by giving the BEARS perspective.
So this perspective may seem biased for the BULLS, but on a personal note, I remain LONG, GBP/USD to 1.7000 
see you all in a FEW MONTHS.And remember, do your own analysis and if you don't see it for yourselves, DON'T TRADE IT !!!
BULLS and BEARS - HAPPY TRADING
- #366,676
- Mar 2, 2014 1:28pm Mar 2, 2014 1:28pm
- Joined Jan 2005 | Status: ~ Noblesse Oblige ~ | 1,663 Posts
{quote} @samooh: You have asked a very good question and it deserves me answering. (my wife is standing over me as i write this last post)
First your wife sounds like shes very aggressive.
2nd this was a great explanation very well thought out off, very well explained etc.etc.. Very good indeed.
BUT -- ONE very important key element in this.. and you put it in, but you didn't explain it. I'll toss it in.. That all of this as much as it is true, is all based on one drive, and that drive is SELF-FULFILLING prophecy. That all technicals fall into this basic fundamental principal. Is that we all look at the same charts so assuming we all use what the big boys use we are reflective the moves that they will do based on the same observation! So when they see Resistance and Support. Real money is put into those levels, because they make logical sense.. But without real money there.. Its just a a random level.
Its all based on the IDEOLOGY that this works if people play into it! Hence it creates a self fulling prophecy, but that is indicative of technical analysis in general. Because, we are people and market does tend to shift, we tend to realign our views, and shift the risk and minimize losses. So Support and Resistance point, tend to shift in stability as money tends to move in and out of them.. We don't have a flow of money on the chart at least saying how much cash lays on each level so gives us a view.. We have to assume things are what they are based on previous things such as how far PA went and what happened afterwards coming to conclusions and moving on.
Statistically it all plays into it, We see an action and reaction and we add 1+1 and to form 2, and make decisions based on rational choices of re-occurring movements. Why, I'm saying all this.. Well because.. People tend to think that certain things are unreachable, unattainable, unachievable. When it goes against their thinking. They are like, but why this did happen the technical said, this but that happened this support/Resistance was suppose to be that and this.
It's that as long as traders realize the one fundamental basis of Technical is that its all based on Self-fulling prophecies. That Real money looks at the levels we look and applies it to them, but its up to real money to create this type of levels and put this in, but it also applies to the accumulation of retail forex that actually does applied trades into the interbank and doesn't keep them on desk hedged I.e bucket shops.
Even though its just drops in a bucket.. when it comes the retail traders it does also add up especially when people have a united view such as if you look at the sentiment on every broker and place that displays it -- it all shows people thinking the same way and direction and weight tends to create catalysts.
Just my 2 cents to add in.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
- #366,677
- Mar 2, 2014 1:50pm Mar 2, 2014 1:50pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Trader | 3,071 Posts
GAP (down) surprise surprise not 
$UJ $EU $AU
Now what...?
GU15
Clearly not a safe haven currency
Speaking of safe haven currencies...
USDJPY 1H (SPX will go the same way)
Night
$UJ $EU $AU
Now what...?
GU15
Clearly not a safe haven currency
Speaking of safe haven currencies...
USDJPY 1H (SPX will go the same way)
Night
