Cable Update (GBPUSD)

EU potentially in difficult position cause it dont really want to anger Russia otherwise if Russia cuts off gas supply it would be a disaster.

Yep... And before spring has warmed things up


Britain says Russian moves "potentially grave threat" to Ukraine
01 Mar 2014 - 17:11
LONDON, March 1 (Reuters) – British Foreign Secretary William Hague said on Saturday that Russian action was a "potentially grave threat" to Ukraine's sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity.
Hague said he had spoken to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to urge steps to calm the situation, and had summoned the Russian ambassador to register Britain's concern.
"I am deeply concerned at the escalation of tensions in Ukraine, and the decision of the Russian parliament to authorise military action on Ukrainian soil against the wishes of the Ukrainian Government," Hague said in a statement.
"We condemn any act of aggression against Ukraine." He advised all British nationals to leave Crimea immediately by all practical means.

Putin yet to decide on using Russian troops in Ukraine-Kremlin

01 Mar 2014 - 17:13
MOSCOW, March 1 (Reuters) – President Vladimir Putin has not yet decided whetherr to deploy Russian troops in Ukraine, his spokesman was quoted as saying on Saturday after the Federation Council upper house of parliament empowered him to do so.
"After the decision by the Federation Council, the president has received the full arsenal of means needed to resolve the situation, in terms of using (military) forces and in terms of taking decisions about (withdrawing) the head of our diplomatic mission in the United States," Dmitry Peskov was cited as saying.
"At the same time, it's necessary to underscore that the president has not yet taken either decision. These decisions have not yet been taken." The news agency Interfax also cited Peskov as saying that the Kremlin hopes that there will be no further escalation of the crisis.

Currently in an uptrend with price leaning toward overbought.

Having held support of 1.6602 the trend and market sentiment continues to be up. Until a test of the 1.6821 high or break of 1.6602 support.

Let’s take a look at the charts in the video together to see.

the other day i came in here like 90% of traders was short, i hope all is working out for you guys

Seem everyone from short going to long,so who is still short ? Davit ?

I guess the 30% is EVERYONE who went from short to long.

Majority in reverse land.. I suppose. Where more is less and less is more!

Monthly moan ending February 2014

As balconies go, the one that I was looking at a week ago was not amongst the most ornate. Indeed, if not for the building that it was attached to, the balcony could have been located in any European city that aspired to give a little semblance of artistic influence to its presentation.

As it was, this particular balcony just so happened to be attached to the Palazzo Vecchio, in Florence, Italy. And which is perhaps why it was a little cheap-looking... as standards go in this part of the world.

For those that wish to visualise how this balcony appears, it is the one that faces the Piazza della Signoria square. It’s also apparently where Francesco Pazzi was hanged after the failed Pazzi conspiracy. An event orchestrated by the Pazzi family of bankers - and hired assassins - in order to overthrow the de' Medici family’s financial hold over Florence. Dear me, they’re a nasty bunch, are those that like to control money.

Oh, and it is also the balcony where Dr. Hannibal Lecter is shown to cut the guts out of inspector Rinaldo Pazzi, before throwing him off the side. With, I might add, a length of throat-warmer attached firmly around his neck. (I think it’s a tradition kind of thing.)

Ah… Italy. The land of fine coffee, dirty politics, exquisite Parma prosciutto, tax-evasion, and, of course, bunga bunga. Erm, no, I mean dolce vita.

And life there certainly seems to be in this land of fine living; all of it walking around in a style that in itself requires the eye of he who appreciates the classic look, to wander far from his training of gentlemanly propriety. But then, well, I’m a man that appreciates the Renaissance, and beyond, and so do keep my eye open for any modern masterpieces that may pass my way.

I was also keeping my eye open for any action up on the balcony of barbarous butchery, overlooking, as it did, my seating down in the composed café below. Yes, one could argue that I should have perhaps been more interested in reading a little Dante, but why read of such constricting desperation to life, when instead, one can admire the view whilst eating a fine pasta.

It was a dish taken al fresco style, while I wondered if I could be whacked - across the head, that is - if I chose to take a little nibble from some of the fine meat walking by me.

Thankfully, my reserve was maintained, and thus my enjoyment of the afternoon was not spoilt as I sat and thought about if the Italians ever stop talking. Either between themselves, or on their mobile telephones. Pff, I think they must have shattered eardrums, or brain cancer from the constant holding of a telephone to their ears, as they all seemed to shout at the telephones, whilst waving their arms in all directions. A peculiar act, to me, as the receiver of a call cannot see the caller.

Anyway, this constant gesticulation may have been spurred on by the fact that the President of the Italian Republic, Giorgio Napolitano - who is elected by parliament, not the electorate – has asked the major of Florence, Matteo Renzi, to form a government. This means that the Italian population will once again be handed a leader that, popular or not, has no publically-endorsed mandate to dictate. But then, well, when did democracy ever get in the way of such Machiavellian tendencies?

Now don’t get me wrong, I rather like what I’m hearing from Matteo Renzi – his disgust at modern politics in Italy, and greater Europe, striking several chords with not just me, but the increasingly impoverished that I saw roaming the streets of Florence. Yet, as I looked towards the balcony of broken bramosia, I did give thought as to whether the Italian population, progressively suffering from fast-falling incomes, would show that they have finally had enough of unelected politicians being tapped on the shoulder, before being put into lucrative high office.

Indeed, as I watched half of Africa selling mobile phone cases, and counterfeit goods of all design, to a passing public that may not have understood these immigrants’ desperation to send a Euro back home to the wife and kids, I did consider how according to the OECD, representatives of the Italian Government are paid well above any other parliamentarians within Europe. They also enjoy the highest income gap between their take from their national pot, and what the rest of the Italian population can hope to receive as their cut.

That said, maybe Matteo Renzi, often labelled ‘il Rottamatore’, and which in English means the scrapper, may just be the man to turn things around in Italy. For whom, I’m not sure, but Italian bonds have reacted positively to the nod to appoint him as the youngest ever Don… and I don’t mean as a fellow for Oxbridge. Hmm, do the money-men know something about this that the rest of us do not?

Regardless, this favourable return for the investors probably explained why my afternoon was fairly uneventful; the true powers that be, currently satisfied, and so allowing democracy to be prostituted once more to the whim of the powerful; the absence of any scarlet-coloured stomach scattering upon the floor of the Piazza della Signoria square, providing some conformation to this analysis.

And so it was that my day was slowly taken over by my considered amusement at how those in Italy that are actually trying to do the right thing, are told by the government that they cannot.

I refer, should the reader wish to know, to how the true prostitutes of Italy have been trying for years to pay taxes on their ‘salaries’, but refused the right to do so as their profession has proved difficult for the Italian Government to categorise. Or to put it more precisely, proved a profession that the Italian Government wish not to be recognised by any statute of occupation that may besmirch the wished-for presentation of Italian culture to the world.

This state of suspension from satisfactory society seems to be about to change, as, in the age of the clampdown upon tax evaders, the currency of the working-girl is now being accepted into the government coffer.

Kind of, that is, as in true Italian red-tape fashion, the authorities have decided that the best way to collect this ‘unpaid’ tax, is to haul the laced-covered bottoms of prostitutes into court, and then fine them for all of the years that they could not pay their share. And we are talking large sums here; with one prostitute saying that the government’s estimation of her yearly earnings was ridiculous, and that she only earned around twenty thousand Euros… that, by the way, is per month.

Bugger me, that’s a take that is on a par with the politicians in this country. Politicians that will be guaranteed that which the prostitutes are currently trying to secure by paying taxes: a state pension.

I wonder if these ladies can claim tax-deductible expenses that could include such items as torn tights, broken buttons… prostrated plastic protections that prevent many an Italian wife from unexpected paternity petitions.

Europe: It’s a wonderful example of how those that actually exhibit moral behaviour are treated like criminals, whilst those that hide their immorality underneath the right suits, are often venerated by a public that admire their status and wealth… this privilege often arising from the investment within killing machines in far-off lands, or financial bullets aimed at the very public that know not what it is that they support.

Technically sure it looks can break higher for now, but with all this euro deep crisis esp recent news... how will market's react? really tough call. many factors to be considered. still holding some shorts anyways. I prefer my limit shorts at 1.69 r not get targeted rather than long at this level ..esp after saw how cable fall like a rock when retrace.

The only Longs that seem to be in play are just for "Intraday" as it seems as the average entry was 1.6699 -- Now if the 30% wants to hold it past 1.6699 with a decline to see if the support between 1.6580-1.6601 holds.. *shrugs*

I'm not denying a move higher up, but more rationally there would be a correction move unease balance out neutralize the market, and then rally again.. For those who think the rainbow rally goes on forever and leads to the pot of gold -- everyone needs to learn disappointment.

Move up to 1.6768 was HELPED by the Euro there is NO momentum or indication for the GBP to spring into life like it did before.. When it moved to 1.68 initially. Everyone at that point could see the bulls were running like wild.. Right now this pair is being dragged up like a dead horse tied to a moving cart.. It moves because Dollar goes down.. and Euro goes up.. So it obviously isn't going to be like gee wilickers.. let me go down while everything else goes up.

I mean, I like to be as optimistic as the next guy.. REALITY #1 It needs a correction! #2 GBP data might be coming out bad due to its problems, and the people that DO move the market with the money, I don't think they'll wait to long to see AFTER the fact, but instead maybe just maybe positions themselves accordingly JUST in-case so that their interests I.E MONEY! Does not go out like old yellow.

I'm not saying that, because I'm bull or bear.. Even though I'm invested in this market.. I'm trying to look at it from a rational point of view.. And not see through the glass what, I want to see and look for favorable signs for them gods that says a glorious victory will be won on this holy day.

Got to be rational and think.. that its a RISKY area were in #1 Its expansive #2 LONG WAY down.. as it has a LOT of room to fall not so much room to go up at the moment. #3 Data might not be favorable back to back to back! This month has not been the best of many. There is a lot of money involved, and a lot of money that can be easily pulled out not to put it in harms way! So what happens when Long positions by big money guys are closed?!

So whoever EVERYONE is.. Who thinks about unicorns and mythical things.. Some people live in reality where the pictures are not so pretty and things are not as happy as they seem.

Just IMHO! Take it for what you will.

Which meant it can only go up!
best to stay out

Maybe not everyone agree but I think Putin is good, really good. This is a real chance to snap up eastern Ukraine which is majority Russian with almost 13million people. And because the majority in this region is pro-russian, therefore, Putin can control this region and hold a referendum on "stay or go", result is almost certain.

Many think the Ukraine thing is a western conspiracy, I'd rather think it is a Russia conspiracy.

Anyway, I think this would be a big risk off events, so I'd rather want to see some $ strength in coming weeks, despite technically Cable and EURUSD looks bullish.

I have friends in Russia and some of them say want to move out capital from Russia.

They say by invading Ukraine's territories Russia challenged west and it would result in sanctions against Russians and businessmen wouldn't want that

So I don't exclude big capital outflows from Russia next week. USDRUB might broke out upside. Trend itself is upside.

Also it worth mentioning that Russian businessmen love Great britain and they might take capital there, but their capital is denominated in dollars and they will buy dollars first and then decide where to take money.

This might not be true as I just spoke with few businessmen, one of them has investment in gold mine in neighboring country.

Hello GBP/US

Great posts from the punters

My mixed longs are to 168,5 to 169

when it has dipped I went long again

thinking it might zoom up.

This has not happened yet.

I was hoping to see 1.655 again.

Trying to keep things simple

My brain starts to melt down when traders are thinking 1.73 etc

There has to be a retrace at some point which will give the dumb asses like me a chance

to come out on top for a change.

I enjoy your posts immensely
To me and once again I could be wrong as well PA to go 1.70 without IR hike and without serious green numbers like unemployment drop 7 or below fundamentally is on shaky grounds.
Last unemployment number went up and we could see more coming month.I just think there is too much hype about Sterling in general.
regards

Fridays COT GBP

Ukraine mobilizes troops amid crisis with Russia

By Chelsea J. Carter. Diana Magnay and Victoria Eastwood, CNN
March 2, 2014 -- Updated 0924 GMT (1724 HKT)

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/02/wo...html?hpt=hp_t1


Geopolitical and language map
http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2...rticle_sidebar

Ngas Pipelines to EU



NGAS (Apr 14) Future Daily Candle Chart

Lol...
Put it on ice then.

Green UK numbers?
or
Red US numbers?

Who knows what will come up.

Turning the cold tap up?
or
Turn the hot tap down?

Same affect

Hi Jimmy
Coming from former Soviet republic I know too well about Russian politics and history.
Ukraine can't take on Russia and Russia is not interested taking Ukraine as a conquest.Their interest is securing Crimea where their sea military base is.
This conflict will subside rather quickly.
When you read CNN link you posted it sounds like imminent war is coming 'declaration of war'

Rather proactive inflammatory from CNN.Keeping former soviet republics under Russian orbit is natural considering Ukraine shares border with Russia and culturally extremely similar to Russia.If Mexico and Canada decided to become pro Russia I am sure US will do everything possible to prevent that from happening.Why? They are in US orbit our neighbors.
I am not justifying what Putin is doing but just illustrating that if tables were turned US would of done the same.
This conflict will end soon.
US has no moral grounds when it comes to civilian casualties and installing puppet governments.
Half a million killed in Iraq country we invaded on bogus evidence and shady underpinnings.This is still going on.
Not even mentioning Panama invasion...because we did not like their leader.Made a mess in Central America in 80's causing thousands of civilian deaths.
Perhaps Obama should give back "peace" noble prize since his drone attacks killed hundreds of civilians and continuing.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...-obama-resolve
Who is he to give warnings to anyone!

ill do bear there were a lot of indecision last week maybe the seller will be in control this week

looks like gaps down will open fx shop
http://http://www.xe.com/