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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #366,441
  • Feb 27, 2014 2:46pm Feb 27, 2014 2:46pm
Quoting JimmyC
Howzit Cable! Well lets look at the 4H Decreased volatility with tighter swings, we've gone from going down to going sideways and the R/R is better to the downside but patience can still yield some movement its getting interesting I'm of the opinion things will liven up during tomorrows data. That low, is a high low... and the last swing high is a low high, price compressing for a break.. Trade safe {image}
Hi Jimmy
Carney speaking has always been positive for Cable without exception.Market just loves this guy (working at Goldman Sacks for 13yrs helps in spinning department)
Question remains would he say anything significant to lower Cable....otherwise I see 67+ tomorrow to close the month.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #366,442
  • Feb 27, 2014 2:47pm Feb 27, 2014 2:47pm
Quoting Davit
HDA Great to have you here.Keep posting my friend.One can never stop learning. Here is a song that I am learning to play now. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fum3g86zUPc One of best live performances by U2
What a great voice. Coldplay and U2 are two amazing bands. What you listen says a lot about you

cheers
  • #366,443
  • Feb 27, 2014 2:54pm Feb 27, 2014 2:54pm
Quoting Capelli
{quote} What a great voice. Coldplay and U2 are two amazing bands. What you listen says a lot about you cheers
I Capelli
I love both bands and I also listen lot of esoteric music from Early middle age European music to Brass bands from India to Japanese flute to Armenian folk and lot others.
Check out U2 new song live Invisible
Really unique with marching band drums!!
Inserted Video


Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #366,444
  • Feb 27, 2014 3:06pm Feb 27, 2014 3:06pm
I had something very strange happen to me today/last night.

I purchased a buy on GBPUSD at 1.6647. Afterward, I put in two sell orders. One at 1.6630 and one at 1.6664.

When I woke up this morning, I noticed that GBPUSD had dropped to 1.6620 or lower, and then had gone up. My sell at 1.6630 was still active but my sell at 1.6664 had gone off.

I wonder what happened?
  • #366,445
  • Feb 27, 2014 3:13pm Feb 27, 2014 3:13pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Jimmy Carney speaking has always been positive for Cable without exception.Market just loves this guy (working at Goldman Sacks for 13yrs helps in spinning department) Question remains would he say anything significant to lower Cable....otherwise I see 67+ tomorrow to close the month. Regards
Hey Davit!

Yep, I'm holding flat on FX in my live account, I've been active on Indexes, mostly because of the loss of volatility.
Just some general notes

  1. Market is Euphoric, retail traders are taking fresh long positions on the indexes in large volumes (500K) huge volume - of retail traders - Red Flag
  2. Note the COT report on major indexes has commercial and professional positions turning bearish on the Indexes = $DXY strength
  3. I've seen an interesting move out of retail stocks and defensives into resources and commodities
  4. Mrs Yellen, is going to taper till she's out (next Autumn - her words)
  5. Pt 5 switches the dollar to a safe haven... (that's scary on its own) can you trust policy makers during a run up to elections?

That Chinese PMI on Saturday would make me close any long interest Index positions I've got a feeling it not going to be pretty

I'm building a net short position on EM markets so, far no averaging down and all green.

$SPX500 1856 Resistance is holding on a daily basis... I think it needs to cool off and the interest rate cycle is due to begin Q3, probably small increments but the shift in money from equities to fixed income instruments is beginning as a trickle.

Fundamentally a down cycle is starting.... SP500 just gapped up on the close.... (read evening star reversal)

Next week sports, not an easy market to trade, slow patient steady planned moves only

Be well my friend

  • #366,446
  • Feb 27, 2014 3:24pm Feb 27, 2014 3:24pm
Quoting sunny0
Hi HDA, thank you so much for your advice!! I really appreciate it!! I admit there is a lot for me to learn and will definitely seek out formal training so I can avoid being in such a situation. I have set my TP for my sell position at 1.6330. I am going to monitor it however. I just want close this trade to be honest and then trade when I can see a clearer vision. In terms of risk, I aim to be as less risky as possible although I guess I have slightly contradicted my sell with these two trades! I don't really open position more then 0.10 as my...
@sunny0:

You also bought at resistance with your entry price at 1.66975. Place your take profit at breakeven to exit this trade and you have the option of immediately selling that price for 1.6630 if it is your interest to sell. The offers at 1.6700 have not been filled as yet so the market MAY move to fill them.

You should trade demo until you have acquired a trading plan that works for you and suits your personality.

Cheer up - if its any consolation losing is apart of the process to learn. I have blown up accounts before I finally got it.

HDA OUT
  • #366,447
  • Feb 27, 2014 3:26pm Feb 27, 2014 3:26pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I Capelli I love both bands and I also listen lot of esoteric music from Early middle age European music to Brass bands from India to Japanese flute to Armenian folk and lot others. Check out U2 new song live Invisible Really unique with marching band drums!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kfqg9DvuTPU Regards
  • #366,448
  • Edited 4:09pm Feb 27, 2014 3:51pm | Edited 4:09pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Hey Davit! Yep, I'm holding flat on FX in my live account, I've been active on Indexes, mostly because of the loss of volatility. Just some general notes Market is Euphoric, retail traders are taking fresh long positions on the indexes in large volumes (500K) huge volume - of retail traders - Red Flag Note the COT report on major indexes has commercial and professional positions turning bearish on the Indexes = $DXY strength I've seen an interesting move out of retail stocks and defensives into resources and commodities Mrs Yellen, is going...
Great feedback brother.
Nice to see Solid posts from HDA and You and keeping quality high level here.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #366,449
  • Feb 27, 2014 4:10pm Feb 27, 2014 4:10pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Kimchi Thanks for your comments.I have lot to work on.I did fantastic last month +20% this month +8% but not happy with my current DD Part of it I underestimated Sterling strength. I have a solid BB system which I should of not deviated.I rate my performance C- this month.So not really happy overall how I traded this month. Focused on errors and learning from them now.PA this month has been most challenging that I experienced so far..I could of banked over 300pips but each time PA rebounded back and hit my SL.On one level I hate taking profits...
I can see you are really practiced well from the books that you gave me, Good on you davit and u will move on wiser from your experiences. we all do mistakes, even me myself still having much trouble to forgive my mistakes in past n move forward in life .. lol
surely Try to accept n learn from mistakes are the best LESSON and TEACHER. yeap I already anticipate for another push for gbp.. lets see.. indeed very exhausting gbp..
A handful of patience is worth a bushel of brains
  • #366,450
  • Feb 27, 2014 4:12pm Feb 27, 2014 4:12pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Hey Davit! Yep, I'm holding flat on FX in my live account, I've been active on Indexes, mostly because of the loss of volatility. Just some general notes Market is Euphoric, retail traders are taking fresh long positions on the indexes in large volumes (500K) huge volume - of retail traders - Red Flag Note the COT report on major indexes has commercial and professional positions turning bearish on the Indexes = $DXY strength I've seen an interesting move out of retail stocks and defensives into resources and commodities Mrs Yellen, is going...
thanks for very valuable info Jimmy!!
Take me little time to digest since im no too familiar with usA stocks..
if not mistake
US S&P 500 >< US Cur Forex
US Dow Jo >< Us Cur Forex
FTSE >< GBP Cur Forex
DJ Euro Stoxx 50 >< EUR Cur Forex

is this true? oh well well... all US n UK/EU are in top resistance area....just like 2 sides of coin ......
A handful of patience is worth a bushel of brains
  • #366,451
  • Feb 27, 2014 4:12pm Feb 27, 2014 4:12pm
@Kimchi:

Thank you for the shout out on my profile page and you're most welcome

HDA OUT
  • #366,452
  • Feb 27, 2014 4:33pm Feb 27, 2014 4:33pm
Working with some weekly segmented analysis, I have some small buys on totalling 80c/pip
Early days on this style of analysis, but it is starting to make sense.
Some things like PA, 1.618 extension hitting on the main 50fib and the daily breakout retest occuring at the same spot, I'm wondering if we'll see a straight up run from 1.66-1.73 (700 pips) as we saw from 1.56-1.63 (700 pips) in 2nd half of 2012.
We MAY also close this month above its 200ema for the first time since the crisis.

DOW also strong close above the descending TL after the dip.

Take with a big pinch of salt as its early days.
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #366,453
  • Feb 27, 2014 4:37pm Feb 27, 2014 4:37pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @sunny0: You also bought at resistance with your entry price at 1.66975. Place your take profit at breakeven to exit this trade and you have the option of immediately selling that price for 1.6630 if it is your interest to sell. The offers at 1.6700 have not been filled as yet so the market MAY move to fill them. You should trade demo until you have acquired a trading plan that works for you and suits your personality. Cheer up - if its any consolation losing is apart of the process to learn. I have blown up accounts before I finally got...

Thanks HDA your advice is probably the best i've had! and yeah i am deffo working on a trading strategy for my self now.

Thanks again!

Sunny
  • #366,454
  • Edited 5:49pm Feb 27, 2014 5:11pm | Edited 5:49pm
Quoting pipmyday
{quote} Thanks for sharing. I followed your trade with strict discipline and I also got 60 pips . It was worth the shot. I am still trading the down channel with a lot of shorts, but at the moment its very close to the upside (or i am just plain wrong?). Do you recommend a SL at 6740 (your break-out price)? Currently have hedge buy stops at 6700, 6720 and 6740.
@pipmyday:

I'm just seeing your post, sorry for the delayed response. Congratulations on your trade and making those 60pips as did I. However, it is prudent that you not just blindly trade another traders post without first doing your own analysis and having good reason based on your analysis to trade that plan. If you don't see it for yourself, don't trade it.

Discipline is very important when trading your plan and I admire that you expressed trading the plan with strict discipline. That's how you are to approach all your trades, with strict discipline.

Your stop loss is a personal decision. This has to do with your risk tolerance and the type of trader that you are. I am a position trader and can handle draw downs in the hundreds of pips. So if you are comfortable placing your stop loss at 1.6740 you can do so or 1.6755 - 15 pips above the break out resistance of 1.6740. Again this is a personal choice.

If the break out resistance at 1.6740 is tested and the market holds above that price then the next major resistance is at 1.7050 which is the 2009 HIGH

The weekly chart is extremely bullish so bears can keep that in mind, but bulls must also bear in mind that strong strong strong resistance is between 1.7040 and 1.7000 before the 2009 HIGH at 1.7050

The 10am Eastern Options Expiry for tomorrow Friday, February 28, 2014 are as follows:

1.6820
1.6800
1.6650
1.6635
1.6600
1.6550 - pay out 300 million

What this means is that before 10am eastern tomorrow the market will hold between 1.6820 - 1.6550 price levels.

After 10am Eastern then anything can happen.

So both the bulls and the bears can make sum pips

HDA OUT
  • #366,455
  • Feb 27, 2014 5:13pm Feb 27, 2014 5:13pm
Quoting sunny0
{quote} Thanks HDA your advice is probably the best i've had! and yeah i am deffo working on a trading strategy for my self now. Thanks again! Sunny
@sunny0:

You're welcome

HDA OUT
  • #366,456
  • Feb 27, 2014 5:24pm Feb 27, 2014 5:24pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Working with some weekly segmented analysis, I have ...

Take with a big pinch of salt as its early days.
Please, Do not SHOW the Pictures by mimick my techniques ! .. http://s3.rimg.info/512d14e8dd44a1e8...fd4d35a1f0.gif
These my characteristic Trading Style's http://s14.rimg.info/b53540ac4af5a95...e0be4c0873.gif
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #366,457
  • Feb 27, 2014 5:30pm Feb 27, 2014 5:30pm
Quoting Tsar
{quote} Please, Do not SHOW the Pictures by mimick my techniques ! .. {image} These my characteristic Trading Style's {image}
lol, but imitation is the sincerest form of flattery Tsar
Please don't put me in your pot
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #366,458
  • Feb 27, 2014 5:44pm Feb 27, 2014 5:44pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} lol, but imitation is the sincerest form of flattery Tsar Please don't put me in your pot

Just KIDDING, Bro...

The Market's de freeze becauce MetaQuotes Platform got (Big) Upgrades.
And a lot Retail Traders didn't take TRADE, because most of they're used MT4 Program need learn again.
Started of middle February, the Market's FAKE ! Have a Look, didn't move and Not Normal ?? http://s18.rimg.info/1015f182b61d0ca...1ff260632a.gif
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #366,459
  • Feb 27, 2014 5:59pm Feb 27, 2014 5:59pm
Quoting Tsar
{quote} Just KIDDING, Bro... The Market's de freeze becauce MetaQuotes Platform got (Big) Upgrades. And a lot Retail Traders didn't take TRADE, because most of they're used MT4 Program need learn again. Started of middle February, the Market's FAKE ! Have a Look, didn't move and Not Normal ?? {image}
Could be Tsar, could be
Have a great day mate
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #366,460
  • Feb 27, 2014 6:20pm Feb 27, 2014 6:20pm
GBP/USD

Offers are now at 1.6700, 1.6725 and 1.6741

I hope this helps with your continued analysis

HDA OUT
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