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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #366,221
  • Feb 26, 2014 3:09pm Feb 26, 2014 3:09pm
Quoting Zappa
Hahaha...well, it's been fun, but I must go now. Now, we'll see the GBPUSD make another low below 1.6580 soon, and I'm sure we'll hear a victory song from Davit and his miniMan buddy, but let's see where this pair is in another month from now, shall we?
hi zappa, when do you think it will reach that low? is it safe to take a sell position now?
  • #366,222
  • Feb 26, 2014 3:31pm Feb 26, 2014 3:31pm
Quoting Davit
My last post on this subject.Those who get it will find it useful and profitable.Those who argue against historical data and facts are in different thinking paradigm. Notice monthly correlation. If you are long then fine why should you even be bothered what I post... Stick to your system and trading plan.I am certainly not falling apart because of others going long. {image}
@Davit: How goes it? Just poped in to pay my respects.

I see you are passing on your knowledge and experience as any good trader would do.

Position trading is an art as is scalping.

Bull and Bears can always make and lose money.

GBP/USD has been quite frustrating for both the Bulls and the Bears.

I have been patiently holding my position.

Strong Strong Strong Resistance is between 1.7000 and 1.7040, so dependent on one's breathing room and trading methodology, bulls and bears can make sum pips, but 1.7040 and below, will definately see the BEARS winning this battle if one is a position trader and holding short with that much room to breathe and patience.

Keep up the good work my friend

HDA OUT
  • #366,223
  • Feb 26, 2014 3:37pm Feb 26, 2014 3:37pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @Davit: How goes it? Just poped in to pay my respects. I see you are passing on your knowledge and experience as any good trader would do. Position trading is an art as is scalping. Bull and Bears can always make and lose money. GBP/USD has been quite frustrating for both the Bulls and the Bears. I have been patiently holding my position. Strong Strong Strong Resistance is between 1.7000 and 1.7040, so dependent on one's breathing room and trading methodology, bulls and bears can make sum pips, but 1.7040 and below, will definately see the...
HDA
Great to see you post my friend.Always enjoy your posts and feedback.Your posts on crosses are best I read.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #366,224
  • Feb 26, 2014 4:20pm Feb 26, 2014 4:20pm
Quoting Davit
My last post on this subject.Those who get it will find it useful and profitable.Those who argue against historical data and facts are in different thinking paradigm. Notice monthly correlation. If you are long then fine why should you even be bothered what I post... Stick to your system and trading plan.I am certainly not falling apart because of others going long. {image}



Here's the thing, I agree that the pairs are highly correlated, but you make it sound like it is impossible for EURUSD to go down, while GBPUSD goes up. That's why I proved to you that it wasn't.
  • #366,225
  • Feb 26, 2014 4:26pm Feb 26, 2014 4:26pm
Quoting sunny0
{quote} hi zappa, when do you think it will reach that low? is it safe to take a sell position now?
I wouldn't go short now. Wait until it goes below 1.6580 to BUY, or better yet, do what I'm doing and place an order to buy GBPNZD at 1.9800. Give it about 350 pips, and target 2.0430. It has a very good chance of heading straight to 2.1000, but 2.0430 is minimum.
  • #366,226
  • Feb 26, 2014 4:32pm Feb 26, 2014 4:32pm
Hi Zappa

thanks for the advice. I'm wondering however if were forecasting it to drop to 1.65 then why wouldn't we go short now? And then take a buy position again at that point?

thanks,
sunny
  • #366,227
  • Feb 26, 2014 4:55pm Feb 26, 2014 4:55pm
Quoting sunny0
Hi Zappa thanks for the advice. I'm wondering however if were forecasting it to drop to 1.65 then why wouldn't we go short now? And then take a buy position again at that point? thanks, sunny

Because GBPUSD has a good chance of going below 1.6580, while I am almost certain that the high at 1.6820 will be revisited very soon. Plus, 1.6580 is not very far from here, not much of a target for what you would have to risk.

I just try to stay out of trades that don't look like sure bets anymore. I'll take some trades that are riskier than others, but I don't see a great place to put a stop on GBPUSD if you're going short here. Meanwhile, there is no way in hell this pair goes to 1.6250. So wherever you buy GBPUSD, you could put stop at 1.6250 and there is a VERY tiny chance that it goes there, imo.

If your hell bent on taking a trade right now, though, you could try a short on GBPUSD with stop at 1.6726 and target at 1.6582.
  • #366,228
  • Feb 26, 2014 5:19pm Feb 26, 2014 5:19pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Here's the thing, I agree that the pairs are highly correlated, but you make it sound like it is impossible for EURUSD to go down, while GBPUSD goes up. That's why I proved to you that it wasn't.
I already mentioned this before that you are a poor reader and you post crap without properly reading me.Nowhere in my post did I mentioned GU can't go up or Impossible!!! as you projected.
Quoting Davit
I know lot of guys are long here I am just illustrating contrary point of view to consider.Nobody knows the future but I like taking as many factors as possible. 1.For GU to break 6720+68+ requires EU to break 3770+38+ This is based on correlations.EU can't go down significantly and have cable go up.May happened on news events but they get in sink soon. Draghi is sort of desperate to push back Euro to 1.35.High Euro hurts everyone in EZ except Germany 2.Recent...
Yellow highlighted text should of given you clue about your daily fluctuation post.You only proved your own mediocre reasoning and reading skills.
Please don't get all emotional now.Be a man and face up to your own posts.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #366,229
  • Edited 5:34pm Feb 26, 2014 5:21pm | Edited 5:34pm
Quoting sunny0
Hi Zappa thanks for the advice. I'm wondering however if were forecasting it to drop to 1.65 then why wouldn't we go short now? And then take a buy position again at that point? thanks, sunny
Don't ask advise from people who can't even read text!That's a sign lack of attention to detail.
If he said Jump would you have jumped?and where is your head!You are not going to make it in this business if ask random people what to do.
You may not like my post but in the long run you will see the value of making your own decisions.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #366,230
  • Feb 26, 2014 5:54pm Feb 26, 2014 5:54pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} If you were right all the time, I'd follow you to hell and back! lol But being that you can't be right all the time, you might decide to leave me there
lol
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  • #366,231
  • Feb 26, 2014 6:21pm Feb 26, 2014 6:21pm
I get a little skeptical when I see basically same Pattern occurring twice , but hey maybe the pair is ranging ..
We are @ Supply , so I'll open a short then BUY it back in the morning ..


Nite .....
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  • #366,232
  • Feb 26, 2014 6:25pm Feb 26, 2014 6:25pm
I don't trade the Euro but I am fascinated by its resilience.
From my perspective, it has quite literally been pushing sh!t up hill for quite some time.

I don't know whether it is because their Banks have been supported by the Fed, or because they haven't engaged in an open ended QE program, or both.


On the weekly TF, it's become apparent to me it has been building then retesting levels since November 2012 and is not showing any immediate signs of giving up.

There seems to be a breakout from a few weeks ago that may well be retested at around the 3460 area support.

There have been times when these pairs have been out of sinc for weeks and this was noted last year in here and the Euro thread. The most notable recent example was when Cable started falling hard in Jan last year while the Euro was rising sharply.
If Euro falls to 3460 (likely in my opinion) will Cable follow? Or will Cable hang here while Euro completes its round trip?

Who knows, nothing certain in the world
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #366,233
  • Feb 26, 2014 6:28pm Feb 26, 2014 6:28pm
This is what I'm looking at on my four hour chart.

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I'm starting to think that the longer we consolidate in this area, the more likely we will see another large move up.
  • #366,234
  • Feb 26, 2014 6:32pm Feb 26, 2014 6:32pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
I don't trade the Euro but I am fascinated by its resilience. From my perspective, it has quite literally been pushing sh!t up hill for quite some time. I don't know whether it is because their Banks have been supported by the Fed, or because they haven't engaged in an open ended QE program, or both. On the weekly TF, it's become apparent to me it has been building then retesting levels since November 2012 and is not showing any immediate signs of giving up. There seems to be a breakout from a few weeks ago that may well be retested at around the...
Euro has been out of sync since the start of this year. Definitely does bring up questions.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #366,235
  • Feb 26, 2014 6:33pm Feb 26, 2014 6:33pm
Quoting Baggi
This is what I'm looking at on my four hour chart. {image} I'm starting to think that the longer we consolidate in this area, the more likely we will see another large move up.
The BB's are closing up, consolidation may well continue.

Just got to wait and see I guess.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #366,236
  • Feb 26, 2014 6:36pm Feb 26, 2014 6:36pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} Euro has been out of sync since the start of this year. Definitely does bring up questions.
This crisis and subsequent CB global interventions have created a whole new ball game for correlations in my opinion.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #366,237
  • Feb 26, 2014 6:39pm Feb 26, 2014 6:39pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} This crisis and subsequent CB global interventions have created a whole new ball game for correlations in my opinion.
Yeah things have tightened up, and depending on how it continues.. Would be the confirmation of a new battle ground. There was similar situation in 2011.. Need to look it up and bring a chart.. That had consolidation like this for days.. and eventually finally it broke through and business as usual.. It almost seems like the Market once to do that thing, but it can't so it sits and waits until it achieves its goal and then continues with the cycle. At this point, its like someone tossed a wrench into the machine, and now were stuck.. It wants to go up, it can't.. So it sits and waits.. and waits and waits.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #366,238
  • Feb 26, 2014 6:58pm Feb 26, 2014 6:58pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} Yeah things have tightened up, and depending on how it continues.. Would be the confirmation of a new battle ground. There was similar situation in 2011.. Need to look it up and bring a chart.. That had consolidation like this for days.. and eventually finally it broke through and business as usual.. It almost seems like the Market once to do that thing, but it can't so it sits and waits until it achieves its goal and then continues with the cycle. At this point, its like someone tossed a wrench into the machine, and now were stuck.. It...
Brings to mind this situation I remember from 2010.
Once the reversal from the top was confirmed, I just kept shorting from the 55ema to the 38 fib.
The condensed PA indicated to me that regardless of the bulls, it was going to meet its Fib objective before releasing the pressure.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh4.png Size: 36 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #366,239
  • Feb 26, 2014 7:18pm Feb 26, 2014 7:18pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I already mentioned this before that you are a poor reader and you post crap without properly reading me.Nowhere in my post did I mentioned GU can't go up or Impossible!!! as you projected. {quote} Yellow highlighted text should of given you clue about your daily fluctuation post.You only proved your own mediocre reasoning and reading skills. Please don't get all emotional now.Be a man and face up to your own posts.
Davit, you have repeatedly made statements over last several weeks that went like this:

"How can GBPUSD go to 1.xxxx? That would mean EURUSD would have to go to 1.xxxx. That won't happen because Yellen blah, blah, blah..."

You say it like this, that if one pair goes to a certain number, that the other pair must go to a certain number. I'm simply pointing out to you that what you're saying is not always true. But of course you just can't stand to be proven wrong. I guess it would get frustrating being you.
  • #366,240
  • Feb 26, 2014 7:23pm Feb 26, 2014 7:23pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Don't ask advise from people who can't even read text!That's a sign lack of attention to detail. If he said Jump would you have jumped?and where is your head!You are not going to make it in this business if ask random people what to do. You may not like my post but in the long run you will see the value of making your own decisions.
Says the guy who's been shorting from 1.6300.

You can learn a lot by following someone else's trades. Eventually you need to make your own judgements, but nothing wrong with following people in the beginning.
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