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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #366,201
  • Edited 2:41pm Feb 26, 2014 2:28pm | Edited 2:41pm
I know lot of guys are long here I am just illustrating contrary point of view to consider.Nobody knows the future but I like taking as many factors as possible.
1.For GU to break 6720+68+ requires EU to break 3770+38+
This is based on correlations.EU can't go down significantly and have cable go up.May happened on news events but they get in sink soon.
Draghi is sort of desperate to push back Euro to 1.35.High Euro hurts everyone in EZ except Germany
2.Recent fall technically broke Andrews pitchfork channel and technically lower TL is broken.This has a very good chance of going 36 and lower.
To me I am not even concern with UK fundamentals right now.Its more about EU.

If you think GU will reach 1.70 then where do you think EU will be? 1.40?
Ask a simple question could EU reach 1.40 under present fundamentals with Italy,Spain,Greece,Portugal 30-45% unemployment?
With Euro elections coming up in MAY? If you say Yes then by all means go long.I will stay Bear.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #366,202
  • Feb 26, 2014 2:40pm Feb 26, 2014 2:40pm
In short at 1.6665, SL 1.6730, TP 1.6535
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #366,203
  • Feb 26, 2014 3:29pm Feb 26, 2014 3:29pm
Look to Jan. 10, 2013 for both EURUSD and GBPUSD for an example of what can happen (in response to Davit's post).

This is why it is foolish to assume that just because one pair goes down, another pair will go down. If EURGBP drops hard, then you can see EURUSD go down and GBPUSD go up---strong in both directions.

EDIT: Look at Jan 10, 2013 and the following 20 days is what I mean.
  • #366,204
  • Feb 26, 2014 3:47pm Feb 26, 2014 3:47pm
Quoting Davit
I know lot of guys are long here I am just illustrating contrary point of view to consider.Nobody knows the future but I like taking as many factors as possible. 1.For GU to break 6720+68+ requires EU to break 3770+38+ This is based on correlations.EU can't go down significantly and have cable go up.May happened on news events but they get in sink soon. Draghi is sort of desperate to push back Euro to 1.35.High Euro hurts everyone in EZ except Germany 2.Recent fall technically broke Andrews pitchfork channel and technically lower TL is broken.This...
I don't really see fundamentals driving this market. Right now the bears are lacking conviction. The Dollar is dead and dying. The only way EU and GU are coming down is if we get some significant risk off and another correction in equities.

Don't get be wrong though I like the bear camp, I'm just playing the range game for now, flat going into the next sessions though.
  • #366,205
  • Edited 3:59pm Feb 26, 2014 3:49pm | Edited 3:59pm
Yes please do look up guys.
Charts speak for themselves.No need for words unless you are looking at Mars landscape.
Check out graph since 2009
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #366,206
  • Feb 26, 2014 4:01pm Feb 26, 2014 4:01pm
Quoting Davit
Yes please do look up guys. Charts speak for themselves.No need for words {image} {image}
Lol...still reading my posts, huh? Kinda defeats the purpose of putting me on ignore, doesn't it?

Well, as usual, your posted charts are inaccurate as far as timing. Allow me to post the facts, since you are blind to them.

As you can see in chart one, the EURUSD opens the day 1.3062, and in the next 22 days moves about 650 UPWARDS to a high of 1.3710.

Then, in chart 2, we take the GBPUSD from the exact same starting point, and see where it is in 22 days. As you will plainly see, it opened at 1.6019 and in the next 22 days went 346 DOWNWARDS to a low of 1.5673.

Now why was that so hard to follow, Davit?
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  • #366,207
  • Feb 26, 2014 4:10pm Feb 26, 2014 4:10pm
Hi Zappa
If you going to address me by name on your posts then you are going to get a response.
Both Weekly charts on GU and EU going down same direction in Jan 2013
If you are going to argue daily chart then go ahead to me its not important, important fact is on greater TF both pairs are correlated .88-.94 which is almost the same.BY looking at the graph I posted its clear.Math does not lie.
I hold my trades longer then daily.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #366,208
  • Feb 26, 2014 4:18pm Feb 26, 2014 4:18pm
Quoting Davit
Hi Zappa If you going to address me by name on your posts then you are going to get a response. Both Weekly charts on GU and EU going down same direction in Jan 2013 If you are going to argue daily chart then go ahead to me its not important, important fact is on greater TF both pairs are correlated .88-.94 which is almost the same.BY looking at the graph I posted its clear.Math does not lie. I hold my trades longer then daily.
How would you know if I am writing your name if I never quoted you?

Now, you say you are not concerned with these moves. A guy who routinely takes profits under 50 pips is not concerned with a difference of 1000 pips?!?!

That doesn't make any sense. That's like saying you don't care if GBDUSD were to go up 700 pips from here, while EURUSD dropped 300 pips. I'm pretty sure you would care if GBPUSD went up 700 pips from here, considering you are short and all.
  • #366,209
  • Feb 26, 2014 4:29pm Feb 26, 2014 4:29pm
My posts are my thought processes and I rely heavily on facts and historical data.
Correlation with EU and GU is one of the strongest.If you are going to ignore this then that's fine.I only post for purpose of intellectual intelligent feedback.
Cheers
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #366,210
  • Feb 26, 2014 4:30pm Feb 26, 2014 4:30pm
Quoting Davit
I know lot of guys are long here I am just illustrating contrary point of view to consider.Nobody knows the future but I like taking as many factors as possible. 1.For GU to break 6720+68+ requires EU to break 3770+38+ This is based on correlations.EU can't go down significantly and have cable go up.May happened on news events but they get in sink soon. Draghi is sort of desperate to push back Euro to 1.35.High Euro hurts everyone in EZ except Germany 2.Recent fall technically broke Andrews pitchfork channel and technically lower TL is broken.This...
Davit, you need to stop telling them the secret they need to buy buy and buy! It's a bull market!
.
  • #366,211
  • Feb 26, 2014 4:32pm Feb 26, 2014 4:32pm
Long Signal again
  • #366,212
  • Feb 26, 2014 4:35pm Feb 26, 2014 4:35pm
Quoting Davit
My posts are my thought processes and I rely heavily on facts and historical data. Correlation with EU and GU is one of the strongest.If you are going to ignore this then that's fine.I only post for purpose of intellectual intelligent feedback. Cheers
You just need to look at a monthly chart of EURGBP. The pair moves like any other pair. That is all.
  • #366,213
  • Feb 26, 2014 4:37pm Feb 26, 2014 4:37pm
Quoting manniMe
{quote} Davit, you need to stop telling them the secret they need to buy buy and buy! It's a bull market!
Look, Davit, looks like you got another winner to join you on the short bus!
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  • #366,214
  • Feb 26, 2014 4:43pm Feb 26, 2014 4:43pm
when one can't accept being wrong generally they change subject,distort facts etc.
Topic is about Correlation with EU and GU not EURGBP

Hey Zappa stop hanging from my balls!
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #366,215
  • Feb 26, 2014 4:48pm Feb 26, 2014 4:48pm
Quoting Davit
when one can't accept being wrong generally they change subject,distort facts etc. Topic is about Correlation with EU and GU not EURGBP Hey Zappa stop hanging from my balls!
Wow....not much else to say about those first two sentences.

As for the third sentence, calling you on your bullshit is the exact opposite of "hanging from your balls".
  • #366,216
  • Feb 26, 2014 4:52pm Feb 26, 2014 4:52pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Look, Davit, looks like you got another winner to join you on the short bus! {image}
Just ZappIt and give us your monies
.
  • #366,217
  • Feb 26, 2014 4:54pm Feb 26, 2014 4:54pm
Quoting Davit
when one can't accept being wrong generally they change subject,distort facts etc. Topic is about Correlation with EU and GU not EURGBP Hey Zappa stop hanging from my balls!
EURGBP cannot in any way be thought about as being a separate subject matter when discussing correlation of cable and EU. The correlation (between GU and EU) is high, for sure, but EURGBP can, and does, breakout (or breakdown) in the same way as any other pair, despite its low historical volatility (which is, obviously, intrinsically linked to the high correlation).
  • #366,218
  • Feb 26, 2014 4:54pm Feb 26, 2014 4:54pm
Hahaha...well, it's been fun, but I must go now.

Now, we'll see the GBPUSD make another low below 1.6580 soon, and I'm sure we'll hear a victory song from Davit and his miniMan buddy, but let's see where this pair is in another month from now, shall we?
  • #366,219
  • Feb 26, 2014 4:57pm Feb 26, 2014 4:57pm
Quoting gammase1
{quote} EURGBP cannot in any way be thought about as being a separate subject matter when discussing correlation of cable and EU. The correlation (between GU and EU) is high, for sure, but EURGBP can, and does, breakout (or breakdown) in the same way as any other pair, despite its low historical volatility (which is, obviously, intrinsically linked to the high correlation).
  • #366,220
  • Feb 26, 2014 5:05pm Feb 26, 2014 5:05pm
My last post on this subject.Those who get it will find it useful and profitable.Those who argue against historical data and facts are in different thinking paradigm.
Notice monthly correlation.

If you are long then fine why should you even be bothered what I post...
Stick to your system and trading plan.I am certainly not falling apart because of others going long.
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