EUR/CHF

Hi CHFtrader, to be honest, I don't think the SNB gives a sh.. about our positioning as retail traders. While the SNB is too big to fail, we are just too small to matter. We are talking hundreds of billions here, and when you start translating that into lots and minilots you get the basic picture. We are just like a bunch of flies sitting on a lions prey - the lion couldn't care less and won't spend much energy on getting rid of us, for however many of us as will go bust at 1.19 and below, EUR/CHF would immediately get burdened again with twice as many other retailers buying the dip. Just as flies for the lion, retailers for a central bank are just part of the landscape. 1.35 may make you a wealthy man, but believe me: you, me and our grandmothers selling our couple of lots at 1.35 won't threaten to throw Switzerland into recession!

They will devaluate the CHF soon.
First station is 1.27+
The only thing you must do is to keep the average under 1.22 and increase leverage anytime it goes above 1.22.
It will go to 1.27.
1.22>1.27 it's 4%, enought to triplicate an account.
I will stay in this pair and we'll see.
I'm 100% sure i'll triplicate here, with more or less fight. Just patience.
1 mo or 4 months, doesn't matter if it visits 1.19 meanwhile.
Mark my post, i'll be here for the next 2 quarters.

First of all, in the last few days EC hadn't done anything abnormal when talking technically, because the 1.2260 was a triple resistance joining the Daily, Weekly and Monthly Resistance. However that was a minor one before the major one just below 1.23 around the 1.2290 that was not hard to reach because PA showed some bull formation toward there, before EC dropped heavily in few hours to 1.2205 loosing all the formation that looked like a bullish build up.

In February, unless something serious happen, EC will keep the price movement between February High and Low so far.


In the bigger picture, EC must not break 1.2180s and must reach 1.2290 or around to retain the possible bullish tone.
There is a squeeze area between 1.2180s and 1.2165-70(that must hold) which makes a quick drop from 1.2180s to 1.2165-70 followed by a spike up not a serious move to base on if happens, below 1.2165-70 can drop EC to 1.2110s, next would be 1.2030s and just above 1.20 SNB Peg.
On the upside, a penetration of 1.23 can lead to 1.2370s, and for EC bulls don't be very optimistic, EC not seen to go way ahead 1.25
Most traders in this thread are EC Bulls, for them I say, be logical and realistic. Seen big range to be for the following months is 1.2165-1.25
After that some decision would be close to occur for EC break outside this range, don't worry this technical view will be accompanied by a decision(SNB, FED, ECB, whatever) at the same period things start to become hot technically.
From now until that time measured in many months if not year, EC is stuck in some 300 pip range that means nothing, so don't live in dreams of tripling or whatever your account from just one or few orders held from now until EC reaches 1.25 or any sky dream

Why 300pip range(waiting for 1.25) means nothing and is a waste of time when trading EC( invest elsewhere if you're gonna do that)?

Because that is less than a one month overall price range. If my point of view would be like some EC Bulls here, seeing 300-500 pips intervention very important, I'll prefer to close my accounts and go play in the Casino instead, at least much more action with hotties popping up from everywhere

Am I talking from scalping point of view? NO

Am I a scalper? Never had been and would not be. What is my point of view? Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.

Any Trader must trade according to what the market condition of each pair is. I trade EC different than how I trade EU, GU, UJ, UC, AU..etc
I even trade each pair of these and others today differently than the previous day. It all depends on the technical view that only an expert can understand what I'm talking about.
It is useless( not to say stupid) when you know that EC would move between 1.2165-70 and 1.2290(at maximum) in February and instead of trading that range, you hold a long position from 1.2180s or 1.22 and very stubborn to exit for 50 pips or so, dreaming of 1.25 or intervention, or you have a short from 1.2290 or 1.2270 and don't exit at 1.2220 or 1.22. EC does that up/down 50 pips many many times per month, calculate the profits that can be earned from it if you know how to trade EC firstly.

It's not easy to become an Expert trader and know(to a wide extent) how the market will move, but at least when you're not that good technically, do not be stubborn, unrealistic with no vision or a blind one or stuck minded that SNB will defend the peg.
What Sh.. SNB would I care about if it would defend EC 1.20 when price is in the 1.22 level. What gain would I get by holding a position from 1.2020 and not closing at 1.25, seeing it go back to 1.22 up and down many times.
When you have an exclusive account for EC trading(like many of you say they do, managing leverage, margin and so), would prefer to grow it 50-100% each month than holding a position waiting for SNB intervention or whatever. Not against anyone having an EC account while other account/s to trade different pairs if you do, but what is the logic in depositing money in an account waiting many months or years for SNB Intervention, not gaining any noticeable money from it or maybe loosing if your broker have negative swaps on EC. Deposit it in your other accounts instead would be wiser.

Okay, some might say they went wrong by longing 1.23 and don't want to exit at loss because price will go there and up sooner or later, have nothing with those traders but when you open a 1.22 long or 1.2260 short and don't want to exit for 50 or so pips profit in Febrauray for a low pip range pair like EC, that means you don't know what the hell is going on in the market technically.

When any trader wants to trade a pair or more, know how it moves in all market conditions and rely on technical view above all, or else do not trade it.
No fundamental will help any trader to gain money in a rhythmical way, only if you know what damn you are doing technically, you'll experience that way

Yo, Clinton, appreciate your long statement, but since you post here regularly, you should have a plan for EC ... Anything you wish to share with us .

Personally, I play this pair ID and swing for average gains of 7 to 20pips/position. I play it long on any supports (1.220, 1.2214, etc) and start shorting from 1.2250. Love it, stress free, no big movements to expect).

This does not stop me from trading many other pairs (cashed in y bit too quickly my long UCAD.... rocket that is!).

it is going to pop bigtime, soon, weeks
but the problem is they will surely make some fake moves before...

Hey guys, do you think all this situation in Ukraine favors the CHF?
A drop of EUR/CHF close to the 1.20 floor or beyond can cause a surge of the already blown-up SNB balance sheet.
But a fact, is that the SNB alone is not able to weaken the CHF much further with ease.
I see a range move for the following months.

All my long statement and you hadn't find any tips inside it to create a plan accordingly! The levels to trade are found in it.

Today and Tomorrow movement can be, first must break 1.2206 to test 1.2222 and probably 1.2235-40, downside longs are in the 1.2180s.

I console EC Bulls because EC trading can kill them with its price movement when it can breakout but it doesn't, preferring to continue down down after a small breath of air. EC Trading is the best way to test your patience.

For example, between today and tomorrow, there is a possibility for a break to 1.2222 at least and 1.2235-40 next, but also a stall at 1.2206 and turn down again to 1.2180s will not surprise me if it want to continue in the same idea of technical can favor bulls from now on for a breakout and some suspense because down down without a real up at least to 1.2235-40 and 1.2260 would be very boring for both bulls and bears.

It is very wrong that SNB can't control EC movement or CHF Strength. SNB is the main problem, if not affecting Chf strength directly, it is doing that indirectly.

If SNB want or have a decision to weaken Chf(not just stupid words of Jordan and his teammates) it can do it in a very easy way, taking EC up to 1.25 and 1.30 at worst.

Never underestimate the power of central banks, but they are not some company or hedge fund ruled by a chairman who can take big decisions every some short period of time or between night and day relying on his mood. It is not a game for them, they must look at any decision from all angles especially economically that will effect its country mainly and we all know that in all countries these procedures take long time especially when there's no real pressure economically.
BOJ had not interfere seriously in a big way until it was pressured from big Japanese companies affected by the Yen Strength besides its specific detailed foreseeable view for its economy.

Am not optimistic for Bulls right now, when EU go up and UC go down EC go down, when EU go down and UC go up EC go down or at best stall right down, all that is not understood why!?!?(other than the obvious Chf strength). Despite technically it can do that but also why not breakout when it can do that too can be very confusing to understand

As said from now till tomorrow can go back again to 1.2180s depending on a failure to break above 1.2206 despite will really like to see some action finding EC 1.2235-40 by tomorrow, ending this week positively

I´m confident this one will shoot up during the year aswell. But it will prob get closer to 1.2 during the time. But overall having a long on this pair is good stuff. Be careful with the risk if it would drop. But dont close it just keep it.

Agree with all your statement. Personally, I am playing this pair for years now and I am don't care about any upside breakout, I am happy with the 1.21x - 1.23x range . At present, I also feel that the pair is very heavy & it wishes to go lower (EU is high, indices are close to record high, immigration vote, etc nothing works), but CHF wants to appreciate.
Proper MM & good entries would always work.

Barclays: Our buy zone is between the Feb and Dec lows in the 1.2165/80 area for a return towards 1.2400. We are patiently awaiting basing signs/patterns/momentum warnings. Ideally, a dip would present a buy opportunity next week.

In my opinion very EURCHF pair to the flat and trading strategy for this pair should consider this feature. I trade scalping several dozen of items and protects against large drawdowns and a possible devaluation of SL. At the same time have a very good profitability, and it does not matter whether the couple grow or fall. With pleasure I read this line, is a lot of interesting and useful. Good luck to all!

Nothing new about EC. Same BS for 3 weeks is too much I believe.
UC was 0.8850s EC was 1.2180s, UC goes 80 pips to 0.8930, EC goes to 1.2180s, this is the BS.
Said it before, EU can be 1.38 = 1.2180s or EU 1.30 = EC 1.2180s, it does not matter, this pair is controlled by the SNB, buying and selling Chf freely.
EU up UC down EC down, EU down UC Up EC down, how will it go up

When EC Bullish Pattern starts to appear(with any other pair price will continue up), an outer force throw it down again, when a bearish flag appears, bulls disappear and price runs quickly to join the down rally.
Not to break bulls hearts, but to say the truth technically, seeing EC more than 1.2240s or even there might be a dream come true(not anytime soon), unless same outer force dragging it down decides to take it up up

I don't care where it will go up or down but am bored with it, want some action to enjoy trading it again.

For the time being, nothing changed, downside bulls on the 1.2180s and 1.2165-70, under there to 1.2110s, upside bears at the 1.2240s and 1.2260s, followed by below 1.23, above to 1.2370s.

Looking into EC chart without having any idea about SNB peg or whatever, PA shows big movement upward to 1.2240s or 1.2260s can normally occur anytime soon. Even looking in a plain chart at the too much support price implemented in the 1.2180s and all the open sky limit but finding price right now stall at 1.2180s makes me think again, am I drunk or the pair is that manipulated.

I guess both

Agreed, seems to be some force holdings it down even though Oanda Long ratio is at an all time high. Just topped up another 20 lots @ 1.2188

So who is interested in keeping Eur/Chf down? The SNB? To scare the bulls away? Why should they? The lower they push the price, the more new bulls will appear and cling to the pair. Only once the price is at a safe distance from 1.20, then it becomes more costly to buy the pair with big leverage. So I don't think the SNB is the manipulator. But who else? Big Hedge Funds wanting to scare away retailers and mop up their lots before the ride to 1.30? Any thoughts?

who is pusbing price lower (and still there is no big risk off) Usd guys. Look at 30y usdchf chart. You belive Snb, i belive in long trends, way where capital goes. As i said it is question of time, and retail snb belivers will burn.

Hi im new to EC pair and super confused who the is behind the shorting position.
I would not call those guys insane, but isn't SNB has unlimited power of pushing EURCHF to whichever point they feels like to??
S*tty balance sheet? no problem, perfect excuse to print another billion CHF to pay it off, since we need far more CHF to rise up inflation.

for an imaginary 160 pips, the short position holders forgot 2012's history which clearly shows "THEY MEAN BUSINESS"??????
(that's what makes me feeling longing EC is a sure bet since I have very limited time to put on market so I do not mind holding it for few months or more)

Yes I hold a long position(at leverage 1:7 which is pretty safe and gives me freedom to add even more positions when marching 1.20), I just simply do not follow.

specifically speaking, Im talking about the huge drop we have today. it's obviously not bunch of rich guys want to have some tax-free accounts(which is now proven to be really unreliable, but still...), but some big capital flows into swiss, if not a leveraged money.

Could anyone enlighten me from a fundamental POV?

Good luck with that mind.
You probably do not know how easy it is for central bank to depreciate their own currency.
Simply. unlimited buy orders as they did in the past few years, they have unlimited amount of CHF for god's sake

My p&l is taking a beating this morning, a bit confused on the strength of EC as it doesn't make economic sense

This is going down because of geopolitical risk...Ukraine civil war has pits the EU vs Russia.... not good. for EUR....and good for safe currecies like CHF and JPY