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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #365,941
  • Feb 25, 2014 10:36am Feb 25, 2014 10:36am
This flow is going to be there for days, obviously fading down to lower levels. We went from 1.6250 to 1.6800 on the bulk of the transaction related flow... this residual hedging stuff in the 5bn range isnt really able to change the market trend like the deal original flows were. The conversation here isnt really about being wrong or right, the point is for us all to make money.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #365,942
  • Feb 25, 2014 10:39am Feb 25, 2014 10:39am
Quoting Citiboy
This flow is going to be there for days, obviously fading down to lower levels. We went from 1.6250 to 1.6800 on the bulk of the transaction related flow... this residual hedging stuff in the 5bn range isnt really able to change the market trend like the deal original flows were. The conversation here isnt really about being wrong or right, the point is for us all to make money.
Hi Citiboy
So what is your outlook in coming weeks.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #365,943
  • Feb 25, 2014 10:40am Feb 25, 2014 10:40am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} good, say whats 1month GBP vol now?
1 month vol got slammed, mid is 6.5, was 7 this morning. But vega not too bad with delta hedge taken into account
  • #365,944
  • Feb 25, 2014 10:43am Feb 25, 2014 10:43am
out with profit that took me over this mornings loss but my god 1 hour with a headache trading that 1 min look to 6710 again to short if it gest there
  • #365,945
  • Feb 25, 2014 10:45am Feb 25, 2014 10:45am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} 1 month vol got slammed, mid is 6.5, was 7 this morning. But vega not too bad with delta hedge taken into account
thnx
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #365,946
  • Feb 25, 2014 10:45am Feb 25, 2014 10:45am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Citiboy So what is your outlook in coming weeks.
Last week was the window for GBP, at least in term of the data that came out. GBPUSD didnt drop, which could be attributed to the M&A flow. UK 2 year rates didnt fall either though... so it would seem that the market didnt even look to push out expectations for rate hikes. The market is very set in its expectations for rate hikes within 12 months or so, so I guess we need more bad data out of the UK. We need a real change in sentiment. Its more likely that EUR will take center stage over the next week given the data and ECB meeting. If they hint towards easing I would rather be short EUR until more negative UK data comes out.

Either way I will be watching closely if 1.6600 and 1.3700 are taken out.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #365,947
  • Feb 25, 2014 10:49am Feb 25, 2014 10:49am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} Last week was the window for GBP, at least in term of the data that came out. GBPUSD didnt drop, which could be attributed to the M&A flow. UK 2 year rates didnt fall either though... so it would seem that the market didnt even look to push out expectations for rate hikes. The market is very set in its expectations for rate hikes within 12 months or so, so I guess we need more bad data out of the UK. We need a real change in sentiment. Its more likely that EUR will take center stage over the next week given the data and ECB meeting. If they...
Fair analyses.I agree sentiment change is necessary.
Thank you
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #365,948
  • Feb 25, 2014 10:50am Feb 25, 2014 10:50am
in again short and loading the break 6675 and sl 6727, as off out now gl
  • #365,949
  • Feb 25, 2014 10:54am Feb 25, 2014 10:54am
Big resistance in this moment up beyond 61.8% 6823-6583 - ie up to 6641 maybe ? 4hr is showing.

Best Wishes
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it's all gone a bit........
  • #365,950
  • Feb 25, 2014 10:55am Feb 25, 2014 10:55am
The worst for me when it stands +-100 up down up down. The 5th trading day GU stands in 6600-6700.
  • #365,951
  • Feb 25, 2014 10:59am Feb 25, 2014 10:59am
I think it is capped for now. Futures volume is unusually high, as high as that for euro

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ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #365,952
  • Feb 25, 2014 11:00am Feb 25, 2014 11:00am
Quoting Trader88q
The worst for me when it stands +-100 up down up down. The 5th trading day GU stands in 6600-6700.
Yea theres been about 6 times this week where I was pissed i didnt just close some of my shorts near 1.66 and reload near 1.67. Guess sometimes you just have to trade your plan, if your not the range trading type the past 10 days or so have sucked.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #365,953
  • Feb 25, 2014 11:03am Feb 25, 2014 11:03am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} Yea theres been about 6 times this week where I was pissed i didnt just close some of my shorts near 1.66 and reload near 1.67. Guess sometimes you just have to trade your plan, if your not the range trading type the past 10 days or so have sucked.
suppose you have 10 shorts, use 2, 3, or 4 of them to rinse and repeat in that region.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #365,954
  • Feb 25, 2014 11:04am Feb 25, 2014 11:04am
so thats it? 85 pips range for the day we've been waiting for ..?
A handful of patience is worth a bushel of brains
  • #365,955
  • Feb 25, 2014 11:09am Feb 25, 2014 11:09am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} suppose you have 10 shorts, use 2, 3, or 4 of them to rinse and repeat in that region.
This usually is the plan, I just dont use standing orders most of the time. This week every time GBP has fallen its spiked down, traded for a few seconds then come back 20 pips in the next few secs. I will just use standing orders going forward, even though I hate range trading its better not to go home empty handed.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #365,956
  • Feb 25, 2014 11:14am Feb 25, 2014 11:14am
Range 6585-6730

1. blow up 6585 will go to 6470
2. blow up 6730 will go to 6820

I think its better now dont enter the market and wait. I would sell 6800 or buy 6470,
the best i think is do so now.
  • #365,957
  • Feb 25, 2014 11:17am Feb 25, 2014 11:17am
ye really ist better to wait now cause i see the ambush in that range. MM wants more retailers to enter the ambush zone 6600-6700 and then if according volumes the masses will long he will hardlly short GU. The bad thing we cant see real all trading volumes of all FX market.
  • #365,958
  • Feb 25, 2014 11:17am Feb 25, 2014 11:17am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} This usually is the plan, I just dont use standing orders most of the time. This week every time GBP has fallen its spiked down, traded for a few seconds then come back 20 pips in the next few secs. I will just use standing orders going forward, even though I hate range trading its better not to go home empty handed.
yeah, use standing orders that even have child orders. Say putting a limit buy at 1.66 which will trigger a limit sell at 1.67. When the child limit sell 1.67 is triggered, then put another limit buy at 1.66. I usually do this and go to sleep.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #365,959
  • Feb 25, 2014 11:20am Feb 25, 2014 11:20am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} yeah, use standing orders that even have child orders. Say putting a limit buy at 1.66 which will trigger a limit sell at 1.67. When the child limit sell 1.67 is triggered, then put another limit buy at 1.66. I usually do this and go to sleep.
I like this idea, much appreciated.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #365,960
  • Feb 25, 2014 11:33am Feb 25, 2014 11:33am
Quoting uksnowman
maybe some stops to trigger our way there before the bigger drop.. (forexlive) Currently 1.6673 with Vodafone demand/talk still looming large but plenty of good offers too. Range bound. Repeat after me, ” sell high, buy low”. Large option expiry for GBP 500 mln today at 1.6650 which may act as a magnet closer to the time and provide some support but not over huge by cable liquidity standards. Sellers 1.6685 1.6700 (stops above) 1.6720 ( stops above) 1.6740 1.6750 (stops above) 1.6775 1.6785 1.6800 1.6825 Buyers 1.6640 1.6625 1.6610 1.6600 1.6580...
This worked out pretty well, tp was hit for longs but didn't try the short. Looks like we have cleared the path for the way higher over the coming days
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