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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #365,541
  • Feb 23, 2014 1:44pm Feb 23, 2014 1:44pm
Quoting monkey@forex
Currently most job creation is around London and south east which were totally unaffected by floods...storm damage may increase public deficit later but I doubt it will create panic and doom...Europe hasn't devalued itself and is on the slowest road to recovery...Europe isn't going to die yet so cable trade partner recovering for at least a year or two, so cable will probably be in a new range from 1.55 - 1.75 till interest rate increases occur...well that's what I think
But the move down in GBP/USD can be caused not by pound weakness, but USD strength. Everyone is looking at China and debt problems. Coal and steel companies in China cannot repay the loans, Government does not want to help, they prefer to let them go bankrupt. If China shows serious problems in economy, then on risk aversion USD and yen will strengthen, theyr always were a safe haven.
  • #365,542
  • Feb 23, 2014 1:50pm Feb 23, 2014 1:50pm
Quoting monkey@forex
Currently most job creation is around London and south east which were totally unaffected by floods...storm damage may increase public deficit later but I doubt it will create panic and doom...Europe hasn't devalued itself and is on the slowest road to recovery...Europe isn't going to die yet so cable trade partner recovering for at least a year or two, so cable will probably be in a new range from 1.55 - 1.75 till interest rate increases occur...well that's what I think
Much depends on EZ zone and EU.May election coming up in EZ and lots of issues to tackle.Greece,Italy,Spain,Portugal,Cyprus 30-45% unemployment and not necessarily torch of light in economic progress.
For GU to go 1.75 EU must be 1.42+
Not seeing it.Most likely scenario EU going to 1.33 next few months.With .90% average correlation with GU, EU going down =GU going down as well.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #365,543
  • Feb 23, 2014 1:50pm Feb 23, 2014 1:50pm
You guys can debate the fundamentals all you like, but the fact of the matter is that this move down from 1.6822 is testing the same spot repeatedly (to the upside). That does not bode well for shorts. Can it go lower from here? Sure. There are a few logical spots it can turn all the way down to 1.6460, though I truly doubt we'll go that low.

What I can almost guarantee (there are no absolutes in trading) is that 1.6250 will NOT be seen. And when this thing bottoms soon, we are going to break out of this long-term range. Given how much steam this pair has built up for the last 4 years, god only know how far we will go. Easily could see 1.8300 in a few months.
  • #365,544
  • Feb 23, 2014 2:31pm Feb 23, 2014 2:31pm
Quoting InsiderFX
The play is clear on cable, british pound is on extreme oversold levels, all indicators pointing downward momentum, could correct to 1.64-1.63 area. {image}
What a nice chart !
  • #365,545
  • Feb 23, 2014 2:38pm Feb 23, 2014 2:38pm
Yet china seems to be getting rid of its US treasury holdings, even it faces its credit bubble bursting...if there is risk aversion do u want to buy the yen when it's printing like crazy...and the US data isn't exactly any better than UK (unless u believe the BS)...as for the EU, with such high unemployment, where are the riots and revolutions? People have adjusted to a lower living standard...new governments will not rock the boat or they may start something, and the real people in power are not gonna let a far right gov get into power...so cable higher
  • #365,546
  • Feb 23, 2014 2:39pm Feb 23, 2014 2:39pm
Quoting Zappa
You guys can debate the fundamentals all you like, but the fact of the matter is that this move down from 1.6822 is testing the same spot repeatedly (to the upside). That does not bode well for shorts. Can it go lower from here? Sure. There are a few logical spots it can turn all the way down to 1.6460, though I truly doubt we'll go that low. What I can almost guarantee (there are no absolutes in trading) is that 1.6250 will NOT be seen. And when this thing bottoms soon, we are going to break out of this long-term range. Given how much steam this...
You should prepare to "eat your hat".
.
  • #365,547
  • Feb 23, 2014 2:49pm Feb 23, 2014 2:49pm
Quoting monkey@forex
if there is risk aversion do u want to buy the yen when it's printing like crazy...?
Yen gets expensive because people sell Nikkei stocks, sell shares and take money. And if I'm a big company and I know that BOJ does not want to see yen lower than 80, yes, I would take a big loan in Japanese banks in yen. With interest rates so low and more than likely yen depreciation in one year (around 115) it wil be the Japanese banks paying me for taking the loan.
  • #365,548
  • Feb 23, 2014 2:56pm Feb 23, 2014 2:56pm
GU Weekly

Double bottom (July)confirmed on the break of 1.57 area forecast measured top @ 1.675. Target closed
Above monthly support I've been bullish on any pullbacks to 1.62 environment and remain convinced that bullish entries after confirmation of reversal in this area will have a high probability of succeeding. Upside swing targets remain intact at 1.704, 1,7125 and 1.75. Monthly chart notes 1.6433 (38.2%) retracement 11/2007 high's.
1.7336 is 50%

PA on the monthly confirms the multiyear oblique resistance is now a support. While I appreciate the bearish case, we are only three months into the descending channel breakout and I believe that there are unconsidered fundamentals beyond interest rates, unemployment and gross domestic product at play. FTSE is unnaturally confluent with cable, this is outside equity norms. It begs the question is cable demand being driven by safe-haven equity buying?

It would explain the outperformance of cable vs. the other FX majors. A shift in equity investments from domestic to resources stocks and diversified energies is also of note, commodity prices are edging up and the weather is not going to help. Low yielding bank deposits drive risk-on behaviour. Its interesting that there is an unnatural increase in small retail equity investors moving into long positions. This is cause for caution as it may induce significant volatility in the short term. Caution is advised because a drop in equities would cause a rush back into cash... Read unexpected strength in Cable despite domestic data.

Either way price action will dictate the truth over time.

So...
I would still prefer to use a pull-back to establish long positions. However longs are not valid at present levels. Unless you want to join the quick (bears) and the soon to be dead (new longs)

The in-cash trader with time on their hands might be waiting for a decimal place with a five in it to establish a longer term position. but 1.62xxx could work too

Trade safe.
The trend, join the trend after the bend in the end...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU Weekly.png Size: 24 KB
  • #365,549
  • Feb 23, 2014 2:58pm Feb 23, 2014 2:58pm
Quoting JimmyC
GU Weekly Double bottom (July)confirmed on the break of 1.57 area forecast measured top @ 1.675. Target closed Above monthly support I've been bullish on any pullbacks to 1.62 environment and remain convinced that bullish entries after confirmation of reversal in this area will have a high probability of succeeding. Upside swing targets remain intact at 1.704, 1,7125 and 1.75. Monthly chart notes 1.6433 (38.2%) retracement 11/2007 high's. 1.7336 is 50% PA on the monthly confirms the multiyear oblique resistance is now a support. While I appreciate...
I think that is a very fair assessment! Kudos!
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #365,550
  • Feb 23, 2014 3:24pm Feb 23, 2014 3:24pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} I had my fair share of ups and downs.. I'm on stable road now. Are you asking me is 1.6445 to watch for longs, because I cannot answer that. I go based on few different views.. Until I get to that point, I cannot speculate where the point is at.. Even while I'm at the point, I still can't speculate how far it will go. I only know when to get in.. Only at the time when its right, and even then I can be wrong -- I have to see through my plan such as either SL or partial loss or TP at the destined point depending on situation or if possible...

Respect ,
The answer shows the maturity on this.
good luck.

1.6445 could be a good level for long i think, i still believe cable has too much work to climb higher, maybe, i don't know?
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #365,551
  • Feb 23, 2014 3:51pm Feb 23, 2014 3:51pm
A more simplified chart from my previous.
I have been casually observing BB's on a 55 setting for a number of years from a system I purchased but never used, and this current setup coming off an extreme and BB jaws now closing is quite bearish.
This is supported with 4hr and daily PA top wicks in IMO.

We have come off a 4hr/1hr TL breakout retest at 6821 and the BB middle MA was broken in the last 4hrs of play last week. I have little doubt the internal TL immediately below current price will be broken soon.

Once that goes, I really do think we are on our way to lower BB jaw and lower internal TL.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh4.png Size: 38 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #365,552
  • Feb 23, 2014 4:11pm Feb 23, 2014 4:11pm
Very good analise jimy!! Let me add just a few things regarding the devils number we are in at cable. 1.666 its the devils number. This number Will act as a magnet untill it acting as a major S or R, then bouncing either up or down, ...maybe 200 down, then retest of the devils, or maybe not , ....p.s. cable is still in retracement from the 2.0 drop. So for 1-2 days its ranging days for cable as long as the devils act as a magnet.
its just money
  • #365,553
  • Feb 23, 2014 4:31pm Feb 23, 2014 4:31pm
Once again for GU to be 175+ EU must be 1.45+or higher. On today's EZ fundamentals this scenario is not likely to happen any time soon.
EU is struggling to break 38!!! Have limit shorts waiting at 38
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #365,554
  • Feb 23, 2014 8:33pm Feb 23, 2014 8:33pm
Thought it was kinda funny... on House of Cards on the episode where tusk testifies Bloomberg TV shows GBP as down 1.56%.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #365,555
  • Feb 23, 2014 8:35pm Feb 23, 2014 8:35pm
Quoting Citiboy
Thought it was kinda funny... on House of Cards on the episode where tusk testifies Bloomberg TV shows GBP as down 1.56%.
I didn't notice that, but that's too funny! Attention to detail.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #365,556
  • Feb 23, 2014 8:52pm Feb 23, 2014 8:52pm
Quoting digger1
{quote}Could be because its the 50% fib area of this current swing. There is a few things around this area. Quarterly open , yearly open, same thing this quarter. Suprisingly as strong as the pound has appeared to be , its spent more time below the open than above. It has failed once from the open to the downside caught by the pivot. Is this a test of the open from the topside for a bounce , the pound likes to over shoot things a tad . Currently holding a few shorts. If it can chew through these areas then the 272 and 618 extensions are good targets,...
Good call on that it was the 50% Fib retracement. Will see what happens when the level is approached.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #365,557
  • Feb 23, 2014 9:11pm Feb 23, 2014 9:11pm
..I'm expecting a Fall at some point , but not before a Rise ( how big , how small ) ..
I'd rather just wait to SHORT again (Down leg..) ..
Not sure where the Resistance point is on the chart , I got 3 potential spots(4hr Red box ..)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: New Bitmap Image4.JPG Size: 130 KB
  • #365,558
  • Feb 23, 2014 9:21pm Feb 23, 2014 9:21pm
Quoting taomql4
..I'm expecting a Fall at some point , but not before a Rise ( how big , how small ) .. I'd rather just wait to SHORT again (Down leg..) .. Not sure where the Resistance point is on the chart , I got 3 potential spots(4hr Red box ..) {image}
more like any raise would be up to 1.6650 -- Doubtful past it.. To much weight for it and were on a technical trip now.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #365,559
  • Feb 23, 2014 9:36pm Feb 23, 2014 9:36pm
Possible 4H TF Mid-channel Resistance. around 1.6650-1.6665.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh4midchannel resistence.png Size: 56 KB
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #365,560
  • Feb 23, 2014 9:44pm Feb 23, 2014 9:44pm
Quoting palabara
Possible 4H TF Mid-channel Resistance. around 1.6650-1.6665. {image}
Hi Can u share you indicators and template? Ur entry and exit looks direct and simple to understand. Thanks
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