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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #365,501
  • Edited 11:25am Feb 22, 2014 11:03am | Edited 11:25am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Some things seem to be hidden by the FED that are horrible. NFPs - probably already brushed up - were just a testimony of failure to create jobs. Continue of tapering is a farce for me. The USD has already shown some weakness, but still they play it like everything is still fine. Media is like: "Economy is on a good way, just some bad weather blablablabla, tapering, blablabla ... " I have a very strange feeling about the USD at this time. I just do not believe that it is all good now, there is something very fish about the way they behave...
Hickson
By same reasoning you could also view EZ falling apart soon.Greece,Portugal,Spain,Italy 30-45% unemployment.Something is going to give.Germans can't go on bailing everyone out. May is EZ parliamentarian elections and we could see lot of crises brewing soon.
If US is not on solid foundation others are not that much better.
What is real scary is Japan's massive accumulation of debt and low birth rate.That's a tsunami that is coming for sure.

"The scale of the problem is staggering. Japan’s net government debt is about 140pc of GDP. This is way ahead of the US, which is on 87pc, and not that far below Greece. What’s more, it is easy to see the ratio increasing further. The IMF expects net debt to rise to 148pc of GDP over the next five years. In fact, if the economy performs badly, inflation remains low or borrowing costs rise, debt could easily follow an explosive path, with the ratio quickly rising towards 300pc of GDP. "
REgards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #365,502
  • Feb 22, 2014 11:10am Feb 22, 2014 11:10am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Hickson Nice mate.Killer rating you got.Thanks for checking my work.My goal is to be successful in trading so I can paint full time.I think I am getting there... Just need 3-4yrs to build sufficient equity to trade full time. regards
Thanks, I spent a lot of time playing chess - wish I would have already been trading back then haha. I hope god will help me to get some of this devilish money so I can focus more on life and also give more to others than just a smile and a hand
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #365,503
  • Feb 22, 2014 11:16am Feb 22, 2014 11:16am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hickson By same reasoning you could also view EZ falling apart soon.Greece,Portugal,Spain,Italy 30-45% unemployment.Something is going to give.Germans can't go on bailing everyone out. May is EZ parliamentarian elections and we could see lot of crises brewing soon. If US is not on solid foundation others are not that much better. REgards
Fundamentally, I am pretty sure that you are right. Social circumstances in this world are all the same everywhere, I think it has never been different. Some people living at the cost of others. But with the Euro it could be different from another perspective: Since Draghis words: "Whatever it takes" Investors know that they can gamble without risk and they do not give a damn. They think the ECB is just too big to fail. This grotesque has led to the european court taking a survey if it is against the law. This game might go on a bit, but it could also lead to a big bang. I just wish one day we all rise up and free ourselves from the slavery of money.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #365,504
  • Feb 22, 2014 12:04pm Feb 22, 2014 12:04pm
Quoting Davit
{quote}May is EZ parliamentarian elections and we could see lot of crises brewing soon.
...and which may give a particularly persuasive reason to sell in May and walk away. Especially with the rise of nationalism across the Euro zone.

Quoting Hickson
{quote} I just wish one day we all rise up and free ourselves from the slavery of money.

Inspirational, but irrational for the rational to think of whilst the majority act irrationally... unfortunately.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #365,505
  • Feb 22, 2014 12:54pm Feb 22, 2014 12:54pm
long GU short EU...dont asking why..
  • #365,506
  • Feb 22, 2014 1:23pm Feb 22, 2014 1:23pm
I am just looking at the bigger picture, the weekly chart for the last 6 months.

I honestly think in spite of this week ending on a bad note, the upward progress in the bull run is steady, and this one will take a fair bit of turning around.

Although it would be foolhardy to say now's a good time to buy, I wouldn't want to short the pound/dollar at this moment in time
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-02-22_1917_cable_6_months.png Size: 19 KB
  • #365,507
  • Feb 22, 2014 1:27pm Feb 22, 2014 1:27pm
Quoting Zircon
{quote} 13 years experience you made a good money then? Yes the forex market is attractive always there is new comers , losing money is the first welcome in this business you agree with me of course. You know what it is about true system and take profit, and making money with time if you build a system like this you're 13 years will made a fortune. Some quick trade make your week 1.6445 to watch for long??? {image}
I had my fair share of ups and downs.. I'm on stable road now.

Are you asking me is 1.6445 to watch for longs, because I cannot answer that. I go based on few different views.. Until I get to that point, I cannot speculate where the point is at.. Even while I'm at the point, I still can't speculate how far it will go.

I only know when to get in.. Only at the time when its right, and even then I can be wrong -- I have to see through my plan such as either SL or partial loss or TP at the destined point depending on situation or if possible sometimes rarely adjust the position.

I will only say my view at the current time of the market and its typically based on a larger picture of 4H TF that pertains to swing trades.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #365,508
  • Feb 22, 2014 1:27pm Feb 22, 2014 1:27pm
Quoting Davit
Skyhawkps Allisonmagic Thanks for digging my art work.Recently I have been fascinated by crows and have done many woodcut prints.I am attracted to birds in general but specially like crows for their uncanny intelligence. recent example of my crow series. {image}

yeah i enjoy how they go from being peaceful to dynamic. these paintings really help my nerves.

and your infatuation with women goes way beyond the erotic lol
  • #365,509
  • Feb 22, 2014 1:37pm Feb 22, 2014 1:37pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Thanks for checking my work Palabara.I am glad you are making living from trading which is my goal as well. Congrats on your son.I raised 2 boys myself.Enjoy your time now with family because kids grow very fast. Regards
I say that to anyone who cares, if you stick in the game long enough you will either make it or.. Not. It's all about perseverance. I believe you already posses that.

Traits of failure is flip flopping a lot -- Everything I typically tend to say about Forex is from my own experience. I wasn't the quickest and brightest learner.. I still tend to learn everyday. With that being said, need to be able to keep an open mind and open view, if to much emphasis is put on one side it clouds judgement.

Just my 2 cents.

I've experienced a lot with Forex before stabilizing. I always kept thinking of Michael Marcus. Even though he broke the ice in commodities.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #365,510
  • Feb 22, 2014 1:48pm Feb 22, 2014 1:48pm
Quoting Nfp
long GU short EU...dont asking why..
check out correlation and you will see that does not work.
Attached Image
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #365,511
  • Feb 22, 2014 3:24pm Feb 22, 2014 3:24pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} check out correlation and you will see that does not work. {image}
Was wondering a bit too ... btw my favorite today:

http://www.chess.com/livechess/game?id=734151958

...Bxe3 + Qxe3! 1-0
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #365,512
  • Feb 22, 2014 3:42pm Feb 22, 2014 3:42pm
Quoting Capelli
{quote} I dont think we have seen the last of GBP gain. Maybe this week was a pause on a much upward trend. I too will be looking forward for next week. enjoy the week-end everyone
Hi Capelli, you could be right, the uptrend burst was very strong.
Playing the odds of what I have observed, a closed break of the 4hr 55ema nearly always leads price to the 200ema when price is coming off a well extended position which it is.
Looking at these ema's, fibs and internal TL's, my own road map suggests to me a push down to 6460 area, a return to the 55ema at 1.66 area and retest of broken internal TL (also 38.2 fib of down move from top) then further push down to support at 6340 area (50 fib of 5853/6821 swing high/low) support, retest of next 2 internal TL's junction and where that pesky/evil Violet/Red 4hr 666ema maybe lurking lol....

Just a road map of ideas/references.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh4.png Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh41.png Size: 45 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #365,513
  • Feb 22, 2014 4:08pm Feb 22, 2014 4:08pm
By the looks of it I would say cable is more of a chop right now, we had a hard time coming off the highs back down to 66 with lots of up and down crap.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #365,514
  • Feb 22, 2014 5:11pm Feb 22, 2014 5:11pm
I believe the 1.6525 area will be a big turning point if the market goes that low, I'll be going long @ 6527
  • #365,515
  • Feb 22, 2014 7:32pm Feb 22, 2014 7:32pm
Quoting GDR3k
I believe the 1.6525 area will be a big turning point if the market goes that low, I'll be going long @ 6527
Why 1.6525 a turning point you think?
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #365,516
  • Feb 22, 2014 9:51pm Feb 22, 2014 9:51pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Hi Capelli, you could be right, the uptrend burst was very strong. Playing the odds of what I have observed, a closed break of the 4hr 55ema nearly always leads price to the 200ema when price is coming off a well extended position which it is. Looking at these ema's, fibs and internal TL's, my own road map suggests to me a push down to 6460 area, a return to the 55ema at 1.66 area and retest of broken internal TL (also 38.2 fib of down move from top) then further push down to support at 6340 area (50 fib of 5853/6821 swing high/low) support,...
IMHO, any break below 647x-6500 is too far fetched as that would indicate bulls are no longer in control. I see a good chance for bull continuation once 6605 or the 647x-6500 area is reached if bulls are still in place, else a free fall to 63/64 is possible to confirm change of trend...2 cents
  • #365,517
  • Feb 22, 2014 9:58pm Feb 22, 2014 9:58pm
Quoting cheater
{quote} IMHO, any break below 647x-6500 is too far fetched as that would indicate bulls are no longer in control. I see a good chance for bull continuation once 6605 or the 647x-6500 area is reached if bulls are still in place, else a free fall to 63/64 is possible to confirm change of trend...2 cents
I've got no problem with Bulls losing control of this trend.
the rest of your post seems to match my analysis more or less.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #365,518
  • Feb 22, 2014 10:08pm Feb 22, 2014 10:08pm
Wasn't Yellen scheduled to testify next week on Tuesday?
I could have sworn I saw it on the calendar before.
Not there anymore...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #365,519
  • Feb 22, 2014 10:47pm Feb 22, 2014 10:47pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Wasn't Yellen scheduled to testify next week on Tuesday? I could have sworn I saw it on the calendar before. Not there anymore...
Feb 27, 15:00 GMT according to myfxbook calendar.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #365,520
  • Feb 22, 2014 10:55pm Feb 22, 2014 10:55pm
Quoting vox dei
{quote} Feb 27, 15:00 GMT according to myfxbook calendar.
Odd, not in calendar
Come with me if you want to live....
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