Disliked{quote} Actually the elephant in the room is Japan. The trade of our lifetime will be shorting the yen. I think it is a coin flip between the EU and the US. I don't have the patience to break this down at the moment. From my point of view I live in the US and I have vacation homes in Italy and the UK. Emotionally I root for NATO. My macro view is aligned with your thesis and I do think we will see a substantial rise in the EUR/USD I don't want to debate US M1 M2 or even M3. The next crisis in my mind is clearly in Japan. It will suck, and it will...Ignored
My own experience watching this pair is that a significant risk on/ risk off flow will occur at a significant technical point.
Don't ask me how or why, just seems to be that way.
I've made it my resolution to trust my analysis and grab these trades when they occur.
The other ingredient in the mix is Gold, is has been limited the risk off strength of USD due to printing chaos.
Green pips
Come with me if you want to live....