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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #364,901
  • Feb 19, 2014 9:37pm Feb 19, 2014 9:37pm
Quoting palabara
Euro still does not want to comply with the bears.. Instead wants to push up the hill.. I think once euro eases.. The bears will flow smoother with the GBP. I partially think, it might be psychological or maybe just me, but I think that whoever pushing it might think/know if 1.37 is lost it will go back down sustainably. Or it could be just me coming up with crazy ideas.
i would ask the bear about it
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  • #364,902
  • Feb 19, 2014 9:42pm Feb 19, 2014 9:42pm
Quoting cheater
{quote} i would ask the bear about it {image}
Be sure to communicate with the spirit bear and tell them rally on the Euro! All jump on top of each other to weigh it down.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #364,903
  • Feb 19, 2014 9:47pm Feb 19, 2014 9:47pm
Quoting palabara
Euro still does not want to comply with the bears.. Instead wants to push up the hill.. I think once euro eases.. The bears will flow smoother with the GBP. I partially think, it might be psychological or maybe just me, but I think that whoever pushing it might think/know if 1.37 is lost it will go back down sustainably. Or it could be just me coming up with crazy ideas.

It's also possible the GBP will move along with the EUR, both moving up together.

GBP just went through a large move up. What we are seeing right now could very well be consolidation before the next large move up.
  • #364,904
  • Feb 19, 2014 9:49pm Feb 19, 2014 9:49pm
Quoting palabara
Euro still does not want to comply with the bears.. Instead wants to push up the hill.. I think once euro eases.. The bears will flow smoother with the GBP. I partially think, it might be psychological or maybe just me, but I think that whoever pushing it might think/know if 1.37 is lost it will go back down sustainably. Or it could be just me coming up with crazy ideas.
With the Fed engaged in currency swaps with Europe on a mass scale (indirectly a European bank bailout via the ECB), the Euro can stay afloat.
This type of intervention is messing with a lot of $ pairs, it's crazy
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #364,905
  • Feb 19, 2014 9:52pm Feb 19, 2014 9:52pm
Quoting Baggi
{quote} It's also possible the GBP will move along with the EUR, both moving up together. GBP just went through a large move up. What we are seeing right now could very well be consolidation before the next large move up.
I don't think their is more moves up for the GBP -- Baggi.

It took a pretty hard fundamental slams from USD and GBP -- There is at some given times correlation between EUR and GBP Movement. Not all the time, but at sometimes they do tend to correlate. I think that the Eur moving up hill is opposing a more softer descent for the GBP There would be further easing and quicker if they moved together in the same direction.

This is just me thinking out-loud in a written format.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #364,906
  • Feb 19, 2014 9:52pm Feb 19, 2014 9:52pm
Quoting Baggi
{quote} It's also possible the GBP will move along with the EUR, both moving up together. GBP just went through a large move up. What we are seeing right now could very well be consolidation before the next large move up.
Hi Baggi
There is no more fundemetal reasons for GU to move higher.Its basically correction time now.Data everyone was waiting for to break 5yrs high did not materialize.
We are still in range.It may take a week or two but we will see 1.64-63 sooner then 1.70
With all the floods I suspect next month's unemployment numbers to be even worse.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #364,907
  • Feb 19, 2014 9:53pm Feb 19, 2014 9:53pm
quick check, which MT4 platform are you guys using?
  • #364,908
  • Feb 19, 2014 9:55pm Feb 19, 2014 9:55pm
Quoting Baggi
{quote} It's also possible the GBP will move along with the EUR, both moving up together. GBP just went through a large move up. What we are seeing right now could very well be consolidation before the next large move up.
Could do, If we don't crack the solid green internal TL this week with a close, things could get hairy.

It's an important price level on the daily.

If the 4hr PA remains compressed down to this level and we close this week above it, I will reassess my short.

(EDIT) Not to mention more US data coming out.
Yesterdays US data was a shocker

....but it's clear no one in here takes any notice of it anyway lol....
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #364,909
  • Feb 19, 2014 9:55pm Feb 19, 2014 9:55pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} With the Fed engaged in currency swaps with Europe on a mass scale (indirectly a European bank bailout via the ECB), the Euro can stay afloat. This type of intervention is messing with a lot of $ pairs, it's crazy
Stay afloat, and become more expansive -- One thing ECB does not want is 1.40 Euro.. They have tasted how it hurts growth more then once at this level, and intervention for them is as easy as pie I mean they still controlling the EUR/CHF.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #364,910
  • Feb 19, 2014 10:02pm Feb 19, 2014 10:02pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} Stay afloat, and become more expansive -- One thing ECB does not want is 1.40 Euro.. They have tasted how it hurts growth more then once at this level, and intervention for them is as easy as pie I mean they still controlling the EUR/CHF.
Maybe London session will be more rational in digesting todays events then Asian session seeming to be.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #364,911
  • Feb 19, 2014 10:16pm Feb 19, 2014 10:16pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} Stay afloat, and become more expansive -- One thing ECB does not want is 1.40 Euro.. They have tasted how it hurts growth more then once at this level, and intervention for them is as easy as pie I mean they still controlling the EUR/CHF.
No one wants a strong currency, we all know that.

In such a situation of stalemate, we are clearly ranging.

interest rates are low all over, but UK and Euro CB's (in my view) have been employing more responsible policy.

If things truly are more stable in the US, why is the Fed engaging in mass QE after mass QE, each one larger than the last, and with minimal relative effect on REAL growth and FULLTIME jobs market and participation rate. With China and Japan backing away from treasuries and Obama getting the green light to raise the debt ceiling without conditions, where is all the money going to come from to service even just the interest payments on existing debt, let alone all the future debt growth.

Us economy obviously huge and diverse but its a massive debtor nation with a massive trade deficit as opposed to the trade surplus in Europe.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #364,912
  • Feb 19, 2014 10:25pm Feb 19, 2014 10:25pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php...73#post7293168

Who knows, mayby JPM are right on this Euro call, wouldn't be the first time,

or would it.....? lol...

Who knows, I don't trade it anyway

At first glance, it looks like a breakout, but another healthy retest prob/poss on the way.
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #364,913
  • Feb 19, 2014 10:27pm Feb 19, 2014 10:27pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} No one wants a strong currency, we all know that. In such a situation of stalemate, we are clearly ranging. interest rates are low all over, but UK and Euro CB's (in my view) have been employing more responsible policy. If things truly are more stable in the US, why is the Fed engaging in mass QE after mass QE, each one larger than the last, and with minimal relative effect on REAL growth and FULLTIME jobs market and participation rate. With China and Japan backing away from treasuries and Obama getting the green light to raise the debt...
I get what you are saying, but the huge wildcard here is that at least the US has Recapped its banks.
  • #364,914
  • Feb 19, 2014 10:30pm Feb 19, 2014 10:30pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} Stay afloat, and become more expansive -- One thing ECB does not want is 1.40 Euro.. They have tasted how it hurts growth more then once at this level, and intervention for them is as easy as pie I mean they still controlling the EUR/CHF.

Hello Palab

Yeah hard one but there is a lot of talk about

way higher than 1.40 by the end off the year.

I still got some shorts to clear out.

So would be nice to get down to lower levels.
  • #364,915
  • Feb 19, 2014 10:55pm Feb 19, 2014 10:55pm
Quoting capitulation
{quote} I get what you are saying, but the huge wildcard here is that at least the US has Recapped its banks.
That is the current fix.
I guess I am taking a longer term view, I see the US running out of options unless something dramatic changes.
It's pretty clear to me, there is more to this current market than interest rates which seems to be the hot topic of debate and reasoning here lately.

The true elephant in the room is debt and the Govt's ability (or lack there of) to continue servicing it while it continues to balloon.

The Fed monetizing the debt from an objective point of view, is not good, it never has been good throughout history.

in this situation, money tends to flow away from the public and into the private sector towards stocks and solid companies that can withstand weak economic times.

US money supply has run rampant and this will erode the value of the dollar. At some point this will start coming into the real economy rather than on bank reserves and then inflation is likely to hit hard.
It's no wonder the measured inflation rate is below the Fed target, the QE money is not being put to economic use.

When it does.....

I'm not sure money is chasing interest rates right now, but safety and preservation.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #364,916
  • Feb 19, 2014 11:11pm Feb 19, 2014 11:11pm
Morning,

Ibback,you improved a lot and learn from the past lesson - I am sure you can make it in this business - hopes everything is fine there with family


Regards
  • #364,917
  • Feb 19, 2014 11:31pm Feb 19, 2014 11:31pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} That is the current fix. I guess I am taking a longer term view, I see the US running out of options unless something dramatic changes. It's pretty clear to me, there is more to this current market than interest rates which seems to be the hot topic of debate and reasoning here lately. The true elephant in the room is debt and the Govt's ability (or lack there of) to continue servicing it while it continues to balloon. The Fed monetizing the debt from an objective point of view, is not good, it never has been good throughout history. in...

Actually the elephant in the room is Japan. The trade of our lifetime will be shorting the yen. I think it is a coin flip between the EU and the US. I don't have the patience to break this down at the moment. From my point of view I live in the US and I have vacation homes in Italy and the UK. Emotionally I root for NATO. My macro view is aligned with your thesis and I do think we will see a substantial rise in the EUR/USD

I don't want to debate US M1 M2 or even M3. The next crisis in my mind is clearly in Japan. It will suck, and it will be funny In the sense that this will time with a huge risk off sentiment. I am not sure this would be an appropriate thread to share my views on the impending economic collapse in Japan.
  • #364,918
  • Feb 19, 2014 11:38pm Feb 19, 2014 11:38pm
Quoting capitulation
{quote} Actually the elephant in the room is Japan. The trade of our lifetime will be shorting the yen. I think it is a coin flip between the EU and the US. I don't have the patience to break this down at the moment. From my point of view I live in the US and I have vacation homes in Italy and the UK. Emotionally I root for NATO. My macro view is aligned with your thesis and I do think we will see a substantial rise in the EUR/USD I don't want to debate US M1 M2 or even M3. The next crisis in my mind is clearly in Japan. It will suck, and it will...
Also keeping in mind that we are not investors but traders.Price can fluctuate several low high on monthly charts.
With Euro parliamentarian elections in May we could see fresh crises with Greece.
Italy,Greece,Portugal,Spain 30-45% unemployment.How is this compares to 6.5-7% in US.Not even close.
Nobody here is trading on yearly charts and nobody knows what may happen in 2months.People who profess to know the future with pivot numbers are delusional.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #364,919
  • Feb 19, 2014 11:46pm Feb 19, 2014 11:46pm
Quoting DailyChart
Morning, Ibback,you improved a lot and learn from the past lesson - I am sure you can make it in this business - hopes everything is fine there with family Regards
Ahhh Daily Chart, nice to see you again, I get the feeling we have met on here before
who knows, it's a tough business, soooo much to think about lol..,
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #364,920
  • Feb 19, 2014 11:46pm Feb 19, 2014 11:46pm
Whether it has topped out at 1.68215 or moves on up further… here's a screen shot of the
Daily GBP/USD showing various fib retracements dating back to the long 2000+ pip run-up
from 7/09/13. In every instance of a significant move, price has retraced to 38.2 - 50.0 levels.
On this basis, we have a probability of a return to the 1.66046 level (38.2) and 1.65352 (50.0).
Retracement on the full move could yield up to 1000 pips, 1.6050 (38.2) and 1.58165 (50.0).

Dr. D.
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