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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #364,881
  • Feb 19, 2014 8:30pm Feb 19, 2014 8:30pm
Quoting Davit
Looks like we got "mentors" brown nosing everyone with bogus crap like If daily closes above 6670 then its a buy. Price can close above daily pivot and smash down anytime!! With 4-8 trillion dollar market price is not dictated by daily pivots and where it closes. Shit like this have no statistical edge. Maybe author of this crap can post his results! That would be refreshing.
This is old school type thinking.. We used to do that.. Back in the day where youd said if a certain close occurs then.. It no longer applies to todays market. The market we have today is different then prior to 2008. Where a days close does not reflect what the market is going to do.. A lot of fundamental weight can shift an a trend and end a rally spill enough bad news and money is pulled out.

People fail to realize is that the market moves based on money flowing in and out.. a pip for them is a lot more then all of us combined together plus some. They are just at risk as we are, and close is not going to be like omg we need to pull 50 billion out because it closed at certain level. A certain outlook changes direction of money flow in terms of what is going to happen in the future.

We use technicals, to look for established patterns.. Things that tend to play into scenarios that everyone agree works on general consensus. There is no silver bullet for anyone, it all comes down to proper risk management.

I promise, I keep my nose bleached as a whistle!
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #364,882
  • Feb 19, 2014 8:30pm Feb 19, 2014 8:30pm
Quoting Davit
Looks like we got "mentors" brown nosing everyone with bogus crap like If daily closes above 6668 then its a buy. Price can close above daily pivot and smash down anytime!! With 4-8 trillion dollar market price is not dictated by daily pivots and where it closes. Shit like this have no statistical edge. Maybe author of this crap can post his results! That would be refreshing.
pivots do tell you the balance between demand and supply.
use leverage with caution...
  • #364,883
  • Feb 19, 2014 8:30pm Feb 19, 2014 8:30pm
i'm a bull above 66
  • #364,884
  • Feb 19, 2014 8:33pm Feb 19, 2014 8:33pm
Furthermore common sense dictate that price goes into zones Not specific number
If support is 6660 its not just 6660 but entire area 6680-6620 that's obvious once you look at the chart.Putting specific number on price distorts reality.
Suppose price went 6650 which it did and you placed a sell order then bounced right back to 67 which it did.You took a loss if following gurus advise.Suppose this repeats several times are you going to take a loss each time?
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #364,885
  • Feb 19, 2014 8:36pm Feb 19, 2014 8:36pm
Quoting jsshuai
{quote} pivots do tell you the balance between demand and supply.
I am talking about telling people rather erroneously BUY if above 6668
There is no statistical edge saying that.I am not talking about supply and demand.
Notice support is not just 6668 but all the way to 6630's
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.daily.png Size: 33 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #364,886
  • Feb 19, 2014 8:38pm Feb 19, 2014 8:38pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I am talking about telling people BUY if above 6668 There is no statistical edge saying that.I am not talking supply and demand.

I Agree,

CPI paired with a marked slowdown in Retail Sales may generate a correction in the GBPUSD very soon
  • #364,887
  • Feb 19, 2014 8:46pm Feb 19, 2014 8:46pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} This is old school type thinking.. We used to do that.. Back in the day where youd said if a certain close occurs then.. It no longer applies to todays market. The market we have today is different then prior to 2008. Where a days close does not reflect what the market is going to do.. A lot of fundamental weight can shift an a trend and end a rally spill enough bad news and money is pulled out. People fail to realize is that the market moves based on money flowing in and out.. a pip for them is a lot more then all of us combined together...
To me order flow is most important.Putting specific number on price saying if it breaks xxx number then I'll do XYZ makes you look smart but reality is price is pushed independent of this paradigm.We tend to think a like.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #364,888
  • Feb 19, 2014 8:51pm Feb 19, 2014 8:51pm
Geezz...i can see so much pent up frustrations just because market is not going either way...patience is the key to green pips. I do agree that its a zone breakout we should be watching for, not some particular price number. Let's all stay cool and watch the ride goes either way
  • #364,889
  • Feb 19, 2014 8:55pm Feb 19, 2014 8:55pm
Quoting cheater
Geezz...i can see so much pent up frustrations just because market is not going either way...patience is the key to green pips. I do agree that its a zone breakout we should be watching for, not some particular price number. Let's all stay cool and watch the ride goes either way
Realistically, market is going to wait for important US data coming out today I would think.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #364,890
  • Feb 19, 2014 8:56pm Feb 19, 2014 8:56pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I am talking about telling people rather erroneously BUY if above 6668 There is no statistical edge saying that.I am not talking about supply and demand. Notice support is not just 6668 but all the way to 6630's {image}
ok.

i agree about your point regarding the ranges for support/resistance levels. i think what people are trying to say that 6668 is a reference point. not necessarily buy if it trades above 6668 or sell if below it. if that's the case, i'm sure people will lose their entire account quickly due to whipsaws.
use leverage with caution...
  • #364,891
  • Feb 19, 2014 8:57pm Feb 19, 2014 8:57pm
Quoting capitulation
{quote} Cavalry is on the way. {image}
Well I hope so
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #364,892
  • Feb 19, 2014 8:58pm Feb 19, 2014 8:58pm
Quoting DailyChart
{quote} Guys, Rather than listen to many fundamental noises here and there,I am will give you some pips as a proof Keep buying it as long Daily close above 1.6668 with target 1.6822 above and if close above keep hold it the long Mark my Yellow Post & Remember only daily close
Fundamentals are not noise but rather the engine that moves the market.Try less yellow screaming highlights specially on faulty logic.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #364,893
  • Feb 19, 2014 9:00pm Feb 19, 2014 9:00pm
Quoting jsshuai
{quote} ok. i agree about your point regarding the ranges for support/resistance levels. i think what people are trying to say that 6668 is a reference point. not necessarily buy if it trades above 6668 or sell if below it. if that's the case, i'm sure people will lose their entire account quickly due to whipsaws.
Please see the post I quoted.That's exactly what the author recommends.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #364,894
  • Feb 19, 2014 9:02pm Feb 19, 2014 9:02pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Realistically, market is going to wait for important US data coming out today I would think.
As a matter of fact, market is always waiting for next significant news that comes literally almost everyday to take advantage of the market movers' reactions
  • #364,895
  • Feb 19, 2014 9:05pm Feb 19, 2014 9:05pm
Quoting jsshuai
{quote} ok. i agree about your point regarding the ranges for support/resistance levels. i think what people are trying to say that 6668 is a reference point. not necessarily buy if it trades above 6668 or sell if below it. if that's the case, i'm sure people will lose their entire account quickly due to whipsaws.
Everyone has their own edge, it doesn't need to be 100 percent correct to be valid , but pivots on multiple timeframes give a hint of trend direction and this is an edge.
Right now we are above the monthly and weekly pivot but opened today just below the daily, so it's a bit mixed (and PA seems to be reflecting this).
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #364,896
  • Feb 19, 2014 9:10pm Feb 19, 2014 9:10pm
Quoting cheater
{quote} As a matter of fact, market is always waiting for next significant news that comes literally almost everyday to take advantage of the market movers' reactions
Of course, especially in this current policy driven market rather than data trending market.
Without the need for central bank intervention to prevent a full blown collapse from the crisis, data would be more rythmic (trending). It used to be more predictable so trends lasted longer and their turning points were more predictable.
Nowadays, the market is producing a bearish engulfing one week and a f#*^ing bullish hammer the next.

Come with me if you want to live....
  • #364,897
  • Feb 19, 2014 9:16pm Feb 19, 2014 9:16pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Everyone has their own edge, it doesn't need to be 100 percent correct to be valid , but pivots on multiple timeframes give a hint of trend direction and this is an edge. Right now we are above the monthly and weekly pivot but opened today just below the daily, so it's a bit mixed (and PA seems to be reflecting this).
yes. i look at pivots just for clues if market will have a higher probability of going either direction. then i'll apply my own set of rules to actually trade.

right now, it's really not clear which way it'll go. but i guess tmr's cpi data should make it more clear.
use leverage with caution...
  • #364,898
  • Feb 19, 2014 9:20pm Feb 19, 2014 9:20pm
Quoting jsshuai
{quote} yes. i look at pivots just for clues if market will have a higher probability of going either direction. then i'll apply my own set of rules to actually trade. right now, it's really not clear which way it'll go. but i guess tmr's cpi data should make it more clear.
Well that's pretty much all we can do, look for an edge, manage our risk and place a trade when our edge appears.
Don't need certainty, just probability.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #364,899
  • Feb 19, 2014 9:31pm Feb 19, 2014 9:31pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Of course, especially in this current policy driven market rather than data trending market. Without the need for central bank intervention to prevent a full blown collapse from the crisis, data would be more rythmic (trending). It used to be more predictable so trends lasted longer and their turning points were more predictable. Nowadays, the market is producing a bearish engulfing one week and a f#*^ing bullish hammer the next.
tell me about it...at almost all the different TF i watch, i get bearish engulfing one moment, bullish hammer next, and shooting star next...blah blah...it didn't use to be this way remembering way back in my trading in 2006
  • #364,900
  • Feb 19, 2014 9:33pm Feb 19, 2014 9:33pm
Euro still does not want to comply with the bears.. Instead wants to push up the hill.. I think once euro eases.. The bears will flow smoother with the GBP. I partially think, it might be psychological or maybe just me, but I think that whoever pushing it might think/know if 1.37 is lost it will go back down sustainably.
Or it could be just me coming up with crazy ideas.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
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