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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #364,561
  • Feb 19, 2014 12:38am Feb 19, 2014 12:38am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} 'Should' all be unanimous votes and the bank 'shouldn't' change anything. Even one vote would turn sentiment, IMO. I think the surprise would be from the Unemployment claimant count. Here's the trends of previous claimant counts here from the FF calendar: {image}
I agree it would be a hell of a surprise if it did happen and the chances may not seem likey, however they will have to raise interest rates someday..
But yes, the unemployment will be my centre of attention for now as well. If you ask me I think its very likely that they will come out worse and panic will set in after such a sharp rally up. If it is bad I'm going to be sell sell sell..
  • #364,562
  • Feb 19, 2014 12:43am Feb 19, 2014 12:43am
Quoting SaiLyfee
{quote} I agree it would be a hell of a surprise if it did happen and the chances may not seem likey, however they will have to raise interest rates someday.. But yes, the unemployment will be my centre of attention for now as well. If you ask me I think its very likely that they will come out worse and panic will set in after such a sharp rally up. If it is bad I'm going to be sell sell sell..
Recently the BoE has said the 7.0% unemployment target isn't their guideline to raise rates/stop asset purchase program anymore, like it was when shit was hitting the fan. Carney has recently said that the bank plans to raise rates slowly, and not any time soon =/ kinda lack-luster. Some interesting projections from the bank in their February Inflation Report released last week: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publi...rt/infrep.aspx
  • #364,563
  • Feb 19, 2014 12:45am Feb 19, 2014 12:45am
4H : TS/KS starts crossing, above kumo and CS above candles.

Schenario A : UP to test prev supply and down..targetting kumo
Schenario B : Down directly, targetting kumo

*** assumption : 2014 high is strong resistance


#ichimoku

rgds

============================================================
UK inflation falls below Bank of England target of 2%
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b7b2a6d6-9...44feab7de.html

bla bla bla
UK consumer inflation has fallen below the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target for the first time in four years, boosting the bank’s case that there is no immediate need to raise interest rates.
bla bla bla
not euphoria follower
  • #364,564
  • Feb 19, 2014 12:47am Feb 19, 2014 12:47am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} Recently the BoE has said the 7.0% unemployment target isn't their guideline to raise rates/stop asset purchase program anymore, like it was when shit was hitting the fan. Carney has recently said that the bank plans to raise rates slowly, and not any time soon =/ kinda lack-luster. Some interesting projections from the bank in their February Inflation Report released last week: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publi...rt/infrep.aspx
Interesting data, thanks, I still think it should be interesting tonight, guess we'll see
  • #364,565
  • Feb 19, 2014 1:17am Feb 19, 2014 1:17am
Quoting SaiLyfee
{quote} Interesting data, thanks, I still think it should be interesting tonight, guess we'll see
Market Makers already decided the direction.
Thye are waiting for retailers to enter in the market.

so watch it out.
  • #364,566
  • Feb 19, 2014 1:23am Feb 19, 2014 1:23am
Quoting palabara
I have this on my desktop still my all time favorite! {image}

I love it!! Are these lemmings or bears?
Be water, my friend
  • #364,567
  • Feb 19, 2014 1:53am Feb 19, 2014 1:53am
TODAY SHORT
If I dont allready been inside in short, I was now entering short ..
Currently the daily candle is blue but did not make low to yesterday, and getting resistance from the low of two days ago
And I think its going to turn red.
Attaching an image
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014___4.jpg Size: 127 KB
  • #364,568
  • Feb 19, 2014 1:56am Feb 19, 2014 1:56am
Quoting Nitsan_Levi
TODAY SHORT If I dont allready been inside in short, I was now entering short .. Currently the daily candle is blue but did not make low to yesterday, and getting resistance from the low of two days ago And I think its going to turn red. Attaching an image {image}
isn't there a bigger chance on the fundamentals that it would shoot up rather than the technical side showing it will drop?
  • #364,569
  • Feb 19, 2014 1:57am Feb 19, 2014 1:57am
wowww today london's mood is the opposite from yesterday lol
A handful of patience is worth a bushel of brains
  • #364,570
  • Feb 19, 2014 1:57am Feb 19, 2014 1:57am
I'm hoping we continue sideways, no more than 50 pips up or down from here, for the next 12 to 24 hours.
  • #364,571
  • Feb 19, 2014 2:10am Feb 19, 2014 2:10am
sell 732 sl 742
With a good book and quality paper you can fine wipe your ass.
  • #364,572
  • Feb 19, 2014 2:10am Feb 19, 2014 2:10am
Quoting Suffo
sell 732 sl 742
Waiting 6800 then sell
  • #364,573
  • Feb 19, 2014 2:14am Feb 19, 2014 2:14am
we could play 730-666 today
With a good book and quality paper you can fine wipe your ass.
  • #364,574
  • Feb 19, 2014 2:16am Feb 19, 2014 2:16am
Quoting chazzle
eyes on 747
Quoting chazzle
747
Quoting chazzle
747
another test by the looks....
  • #364,575
  • Feb 19, 2014 2:16am Feb 19, 2014 2:16am
its just too expensive. even if employment is good, the interest rates for this currency are very low and will stay low for years.
  • #364,576
  • Feb 19, 2014 2:20am Feb 19, 2014 2:20am
Quoting Baggi
{quote} Same place I see all my options. For this pair, under Options, in my brokerage, I put in GBP and it gives me both Put and Call options for GBPUSD.
sorry what broker are you using?
  • #364,577
  • Feb 19, 2014 2:22am Feb 19, 2014 2:22am
Quoting Nitsan_Levi
TODAY SHORT If I dont allready been inside in short, I was now entering short .. Currently the daily candle is blue but did not make low to yesterday, and getting resistance from the low of two days ago And I think its going to turn red. Attaching an image {image}
morning i am clear of any trades took the profit from yesterday and did not want to be in any positions overnight, so i think 6737 could be a entry short 50% fib from 6821 or go try small long to 61% trs to 6757 that way you move your sl up and catch the long i am trying the 50% could be double top on 30 min chart
  • #364,578
  • Feb 19, 2014 2:34am Feb 19, 2014 2:34am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: t.png Size: 107 KB
trying a short 6724 was res yesterday the candle has closed below the 38 fib target before the news below 6700 sl will be down incase of volitility
  • #364,579
  • Edited 2:51am Feb 19, 2014 2:36am | Edited 2:51am
Objectively speaking winter employment is generally not stellar and that's true everywhere and with UK battling floods I don't see unemployment numbers reduced.
On the contrary opposite maybe true.I have not added any new shorts since 6650.My limit has been reached.I invest set amount once reached I leave it alone.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #364,580
  • Feb 19, 2014 2:57am Feb 19, 2014 2:57am
Reload GBP Longs Ahead Of Big Deal Flow Coming Weeks - JP Morgan​

Although GBP seems to be topped out on more than one front, the completion of the Vodafone-Verizon deal will likely give the pound another boost over the coming few weeks, argues JP Morgan.
"Momentum in UK interest rate expectations does indeed appear to have topped out - the message from the BoE’s QIR was intentionally dovish and UK rate expectations have fallen versus all other G10 countries over the past two weeks – but we nevertheless stay long GBP as the market’s focus turns to the possible deal flow in coming weeks," JPM clarifies.
"Vodafone shareholders will receive $60bn in Verizon shares on February 24th and those that have a need/wish to re-invest in UK equities will need to buy GBP/USD from this point onwards. The cash distribution of $24bn follows on March 4th," JPM adds.
To position for such a deal, JPM recommends the following trades:
In spot, sell EUR/GBP around current levels with a stop at 0.8370.
In options, Buy a 1-mo 1.69 GBP/USD call, sell a 2-mo 1.39 EUR/USD call. Receive premium of 6 bp.
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