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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #364,401
  • Feb 18, 2014 4:15am Feb 18, 2014 4:15am
Quoting cheater
{quote} ah i see what you mean, but it just closed below 38.2% at H1...open target for 6605 in sight it seems
1.6605 is also target for ABC pattern on H1.
  • #364,402
  • Feb 18, 2014 4:16am Feb 18, 2014 4:16am
You have to ask yourself. Why is Sterling at these levels? Why are markets pricing in rate hikes for early 2015? Why is Citi calling for a Winter 2014 rate hike? Why did the BoE hike their 2014 GDP forecast from 2.8% to 3.4%?


Look at the data. Someone isnt right.

Employment tomorrow and retail sales Wednesday will determine.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2d549...#axzz2tUiTdDS5
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  • #364,403
  • Feb 18, 2014 4:17am Feb 18, 2014 4:17am
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Its the CORE that matters, which missed a bit more.
No, the core isn't the more important one. Check any calendar out there. It makes sense because core CPI counts only the bare necessities. The full CPI counts everything from cars to internet subscriptions.
  • #364,404
  • Feb 18, 2014 4:18am Feb 18, 2014 4:18am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Well, that sounds logical of course. On the other hand, last week they stated a higher pound would not hurt export right now. It is a bit ambivalent. I do not have any opinion. On a technical view, I will keep buying the dips.
A higher pound won't hurt exports as significantly as many imagine. One only needs to observe how UK exporters failed to make any gains from the massive fall in cable (and sterling across the board) from levels above 2.00 in 2007. This showed a slowing global demand, for sure, but also demonstrated the relative lack of sensitivity between the amount of goods and services exported and the prevailing value of sterling.

However, a continuous undershooting of the inflation target, should it occur, definitely does relieve any near-term pressure on the MPC to raise rates, regardless of where the unemployment rate is. As continuous below target inflation, even with unemployment between 6.5-7%, signifies a great deal of spare capacity in the economy - broadly meaning there is plenty of scope for improved economic performance before wage pressures picks up and start to impact the inflation measures.
  • #364,405
  • Feb 18, 2014 4:21am Feb 18, 2014 4:21am
This whole notion of a higher currency hurting exports is really a moot point. It has always been the case and will always be the case, but that doesn't mean that central bankers always keep their currency low. A low currency has its other problems too. Saying a higher pound will hurt exports is just looking at half the picture. And as someone already mentioned, a lower pound just reduces productivity without really increasing exports.
  • #364,406
  • Feb 18, 2014 4:22am Feb 18, 2014 4:22am
Quoting stormtrader
{quote} lookin at 1.66 -1.6620 is what i am waiting for to see if it holds then we re heading for 1.70
and they are offf!!! pulled the trigger at 1.6670
sl none lol adding more if, which i doubt, we see the levels i mentioned
  • #364,407
  • Feb 18, 2014 4:23am Feb 18, 2014 4:23am
Quoting elbert3
reason for going long support on the left 38% fib ext, price now needs to close above the high on the left and the 200 sma{image} just a pull back thou i think i bit early to post the chart as the 30 min candle is still burning
sl up 6674 pp
  • #364,408
  • Feb 18, 2014 4:27am Feb 18, 2014 4:27am
Quoting zaghloul
{quote} No, the core isn't the more important one. Check any calendar out there. It makes sense because core CPI counts only the bare necessities. The full CPI counts everything from cars to internet subscriptions.
Uhhh.... right... "The core CPI index excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile and non-systemic. More specifically, food and energy prices are widely thought to be subject to large changes that often fail to persist and do not represent relative price changes."

Its from US CPI, but same concept: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...Index#Core_CPI
  • #364,409
  • Feb 18, 2014 4:27am Feb 18, 2014 4:27am
Quoting zaghloul
{quote} No, the core isn't the more important one. Check any calendar out there. It makes sense because core CPI counts only the bare necessities. The full CPI counts everything from cars to internet subscriptions.
Core CPI is often what policy-makers focus on, as this excludes food and energy prices (which are mainly externally created price pressures), providing a finer indicator to the actual underlying inflation pressures within the domestic economy. For individuals, of course, it's the broader measure that counts, as everyone need to eat and stay warm.
  • #364,410
  • Feb 18, 2014 4:33am Feb 18, 2014 4:33am
Gbp 1min flag for short...i give you 2 stop ..chosie what you want...
i take the big stop..
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  • #364,411
  • Feb 18, 2014 4:41am Feb 18, 2014 4:41am
Hi Citiboy,

Good database!!
Let me be the devil's advocate here. Manufacturing, services, construction, unemployment rate. All are very near to expectations. So Mr Markit is anticipating the rate hike and they are not wrong. house prices are all time high too.


Quoting Citiboy
You have to ask yourself. Why is Sterling at these levels? Why are markets pricing in rate hikes for early 2015? Why is Citi calling for a Winter 2014 rate hike? Why did the BoE hike their 2014 GDP forecast from 2.8% to 3.4%? Look at the data. Someone isnt right. Employment tomorrow and retail sales Wednesday will determine. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2d549...#axzz2tUiTdDS5 {image}
Cannot post chart - I Work full time only analysis with trade details :-)
  • #364,412
  • Feb 18, 2014 4:42am Feb 18, 2014 4:42am
Quoting Nitsan_Levi
Gbp 1min flag for short...i give you 2 stop ..chosie what you want... i take the big stop.. {image}
short for my just going to close long and take profit but will short at same time not gone short yet just bringing the order up
  • #364,413
  • Feb 18, 2014 4:48am Feb 18, 2014 4:48am
Quoting stormtrader
{quote} and they are offf!!! pulled the trigger at 1.6670 sl none lol adding more if, which i doubt, we see the levels i mentioned
sl at be... and riding the wave
  • #364,414
  • Feb 18, 2014 4:48am Feb 18, 2014 4:48am
All the way back up now after the failure of 1.666x ? Same for EU

I guess NY will settle this
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #364,415
  • Feb 18, 2014 4:51am Feb 18, 2014 4:51am
Quoting kuroro001
All the way back up now after the failure of 1.666x ? Same for EU I guess NY will settle this
imho i would say this looks more like profit taking and loading more shorts though...i'm bearish hehe
  • #364,416
  • Feb 18, 2014 4:55am Feb 18, 2014 4:55am
sell 704 sl 739 tp 250+
With a good book and quality paper you can fine wipe your ass.
  • #364,417
  • Feb 18, 2014 4:56am Feb 18, 2014 4:56am
Quoting cheater
{quote} imho i would say this looks more like profit taking and loading more shorts though...i'm bearish hehe
Of course a lot of profit taking in 1.667x, but bear in mind, more BUY entry will come in too after this pullback. I believe the serious matter now is more on 1.674x, and if this point through, crazy BULL are no more controllable. Just in my opinion.
I am not the SMARTEST person in the world, I am the PERSISTENT one.
  • #364,418
  • Feb 18, 2014 5:01am Feb 18, 2014 5:01am
Quoting kimisiow83
{quote} Of course a lot of profit taking in 1.667x, but bear in mind, more BUY entry will come in too after this pullback. I believe the serious matter now is more on 1.674x, and if this point through, crazy BULL are no more controllable. Just in my opinion.
agree on that 674x to watch for, will close all my heavy shorts if it ever breaches that level. As of now, bull are still in control in longer TF unless 6500 is breached
  • #364,419
  • Feb 18, 2014 5:02am Feb 18, 2014 5:02am
Quoting zaghloul
{quote} No, the core isn't the more important one. Check any calendar out there. It makes sense because core CPI counts only the bare necessities. The full CPI counts everything from cars to internet subscriptions.

Bank of England and ECB policy are based on headline inflation. (not core).


Federal Reserve policy is based on Core inflation. (measured by Core PCE indicator)
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  • #364,420
  • Feb 18, 2014 5:04am Feb 18, 2014 5:04am
My long trigger is now 1,666. Very solid area for a retest of 1,68 at least.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
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