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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #364,181
  • Feb 17, 2014 12:19pm Feb 17, 2014 12:19pm
Quoting Kajos2250
Maybe the DPP takes the decision for today and soon (~6617 )it is time to take places on bulls side again... Profit protective SL .6751. No Wall Street today.... Good luck! {image} {image}
Last weekly bullish marobozu allows the retrace to 23.6%/38.2% fib levels ~6668/~6612.
Until i have to finish my shorts.
Marobozu 38.2% .6612, daily broken resistance ~ 6602, WPP ~6623, MPP~6632, last month open .66007 is a nice confluence to joint the bullish ride

Good luck!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdmicroh4.png Size: 34 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: GU_M1.JPG Size: 182 KB
Anything is math!
  • #364,182
  • Feb 17, 2014 12:23pm Feb 17, 2014 12:23pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
gonna try some sneak longs...pay 6702, risk 6694, tp 6792...
You'll get cancelled by the noise.. Waist of pips. IMO
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #364,183
  • Feb 17, 2014 12:31pm Feb 17, 2014 12:31pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} You'll get cancelled by the noise.. Waist of pips. IMO
its an area I had marked, an area that I wanted to look for some longs, shit time to do it, sure, but the risk is small...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #364,184
  • Feb 17, 2014 12:32pm Feb 17, 2014 12:32pm
Apart from the image of this (Triangle megaphone fibo 127.2) (daily chart)

I think by the end of the month the price will be below the moving averages 200 and 300 (monthly chart)

see pics
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPSHORTDAILYNITSAN2.jpg Size: 90 KB
  • #364,185
  • Feb 17, 2014 12:33pm Feb 17, 2014 12:33pm
Quoting ffleo
cable price went from monthly s1 all the way to r2, spanning 3 monthly pivot regions. that is it for the current month and now the price is on its way down to check monthly r1 and pivot point one by one. will monthly r1 stop it? no. because next monthly pivot is below the current monthly r1, and the price will check it at 6592. on a weekly, last week price went all the way from pivot to over r3!! that is over extended. this week, the price dropped below the middle of weekly pivot and R1, and it will continue its way to check the weekly pivot at...
Sometimes it can miss twice in a row maybe three times! Statistically from 10 it can touch 7/8. But i think/hope it wont miss to touch WPP on this week, there is a very strong confluence...
Anything is math!
  • #364,186
  • Feb 17, 2014 12:35pm Feb 17, 2014 12:35pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} You'll get cancelled by the noise.. Waist of pips. IMO
I actually quite like PTL's style although it's not for me (maybe some of the time), but typically he takes a trade pretty much right at the support or resistance that's being defended and has a big reward/risk that the support or resistance gets defended. Sure a majority of the time the level doesn't hold and you get stopped out, but if you only need to be right 1 in 5 times or 1 in 10 times it can definitely work.
This particular trade I may not take though as it is in GU. Something in UJ would probably typically work better on this style. I don't know for a fact though, just my guess.
  • #364,187
  • Feb 17, 2014 12:39pm Feb 17, 2014 12:39pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} its an area I had marked, an area that I wanted to look for some longs, shit time to do it, sure, but the risk is small...
The weight for it to go higher is to much now, and whoever led the Calvary the 1st time, to busy carrying their sacks of cash now. I mean to each his own.
Risk is small, but the probability of success is also very small, at this time.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #364,188
  • Feb 17, 2014 12:40pm Feb 17, 2014 12:40pm
DXY 4H

Note DXY Index bouncing off support at 8006

Rebound
approaching daily pivot. Question needs to be ... dead cat bounce or reversal.
If its a reversal GU AU EU XAUUSD all will find this a headwind

GBP data tomorrow y/y GDP seeing ZEW on EU knee jerk spikes not trend changers

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #364,189
  • Feb 17, 2014 12:40pm Feb 17, 2014 12:40pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} I actually quite like PTL's style although it's not for me (maybe some of the time), but typically he takes a trade at support or resistance that's being defended and has a big reward/risk that the support or resistance gets defended. Sure a majority of the time the level doesn't hold and you get stopped out, but if you only need to be right 1 in 5 times or 1 in 10 times it can definitely work. This particular trade I may not take though as it is in GU. Something in UJ would probably typically work better on this style. I don't know for...
Using that type of concept, and idealism. The problem is is the juice worth the squeeze? To each his own, its a lot of work and small derailment can cause big problems.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #364,190
  • Feb 17, 2014 12:43pm Feb 17, 2014 12:43pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} Using that type of concept, and idealism. The problem is is the juice worth the squeeze? To each his own, its a lot of work and small derailment can cause big problems.
Well you have to pick your spots. As I said, this isn't a spot I would personally pick to go long (at least not yet, for a bunch of other reasons as well) but if you only need to be right 1 in 10 times it's hard to criticize.
  • #364,191
  • Feb 17, 2014 12:43pm Feb 17, 2014 12:43pm
GU 4H

Advance block signalled bearish movement now dropping to first support bounce or break watch 1.667x area for reaction
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #364,192
  • Feb 17, 2014 12:46pm Feb 17, 2014 12:46pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} Well you have to pick your spots. As I said, this isn't a spot I would personally pick to go long (at least not yet, for a bunch of other reasons as well) but if you only need to be right 1 in 10 times it's hard to criticize.
I'll challenge your 1 out of 10 times..

Lets say on average you risk.. 8 pips

so if you were wrong.. 8 times.. That's 64 pips and you were right one time.. Say 100 pips. You've only made 36 pips on 9 trades.

A lot of work, not a lot of reward. Now lets further examine.. This say you were right, only you had a fade past S/R this are cracks at psychological well being, bringing yourself to 2nd guess your own methodology, making you change the outlook.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #364,193
  • Feb 17, 2014 12:46pm Feb 17, 2014 12:46pm
Quick visit to the past for some old trading rules...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Old traders Rules.JPG Size: 321 KB
  • #364,194
  • Feb 17, 2014 12:47pm Feb 17, 2014 12:47pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} Using that type of concept, and idealism. The problem is is the juice worth the squeeze? To each his own, its a lot of work and small derailment can cause big problems.
I just like the spot here brother, just wish there was more liquidity, either way I filled now...well see shortly I guess, gl, PTL..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #364,195
  • Feb 17, 2014 12:47pm Feb 17, 2014 12:47pm
Quoting JimmyC
Quick visit to the past for some old trading rules... {image}
Should add to the list.. Hope is not a valid strategy.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #364,196
  • Feb 17, 2014 12:48pm Feb 17, 2014 12:48pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} I just like the spot here brother, just wish there was more liquidity, either way I filled now...well see shortly I guess, gl, PTL..
Good luck
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #364,197
  • Feb 17, 2014 12:49pm Feb 17, 2014 12:49pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} I'll challenge your 1 out of 10 times.. Lets say on average you risk.. 8 pips so if you were wrong.. 8 times.. That's 64 pips and you were right one time.. Say 100 pips. You've only made 36 pips on 9 trades. A lot of work, not a lot of reward. Now lets further examine.. This say you were right, only you had a fade past S/R this are cracks at psychological well being, bringing yourself to 2nd guess your own methodology, making you change the outlook.
Yeah but you're assuming that the trader sucks at picking spots.
I think if you pick your spots correctly you can get it right a lot more than that. However, this is probably not one of them. IMO
  • #364,198
  • Feb 17, 2014 12:55pm Feb 17, 2014 12:55pm
lol, looks thin in there...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #364,199
  • Feb 17, 2014 12:58pm Feb 17, 2014 12:58pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
lol, looks thin in there...
I'm seeing 3pips in GU where typically it's .4-.5pip
  • #364,200
  • Feb 17, 2014 12:58pm Feb 17, 2014 12:58pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
lol, looks thin in there...
lol sorry PTL, were not criticizing.. Just discussing.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
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