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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #364,001
  • Feb 17, 2014 1:10am Feb 17, 2014 1:10am
Quoting zaghloul
What just happened? Was there a major news release or something? Frankfurt came online and they demolished the pound like it was 1942.
wait for tomorrow and the day after.
today is a "whatever man~~~!" kind of day.
  • #364,002
  • Feb 17, 2014 1:12am Feb 17, 2014 1:12am
Quoting eurusd_trade
Yes I have pretty decent confidence at the moment we're going to see 50pips lower from 1.6820, I have a pretty sizable position. Later on this can change if the PA changes... no guarantees... I've been warning you not to sell at pretty much every level lower than this so if you're out of margin to sell now, it's your fault
OK well we got our 50 pips from 1.6820, we are back into the take profit zone in H1... have a good night guys... tread lightly...
  • #364,003
  • Feb 17, 2014 1:12am Feb 17, 2014 1:12am
Quoting zaghloul
What just happened? Was there a major news release or something? Frankfurt came online and they demolished the pound like it was 1942.
I wouldn't say it's been demolished. Not until after it gets under 1.6750 and stays below 1.6750. Otherwise, we're just chopping about before we head up again.
  • #364,004
  • Feb 17, 2014 1:13am Feb 17, 2014 1:13am
Still though, a 20 pip dive in 2 minutes doesn't make sense. Feels like the Turkish Lira, lol.
  • #364,005
  • Feb 17, 2014 1:14am Feb 17, 2014 1:14am
buy 770 sl 735
With a good book and quality paper you can fine wipe your ass.
  • #364,006
  • Feb 17, 2014 1:14am Feb 17, 2014 1:14am
Does anybody have a same view that this whole thing will probably have a correction all the way back to 1.667x area? I am starting to confuse with the candle pattern moves, and it seems too little for 1.675x retrace, it makes sense to me if the whole thing back to 1.667x before proceeding a bounce to higher.
I am not the SMARTEST person in the world, I am the PERSISTENT one.
  • #364,007
  • Feb 17, 2014 1:15am Feb 17, 2014 1:15am
I drew the trend line about 8 hours ago, give or take. Look how it bounced right off the trend line.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Pound.JPG Size: 220 KB
  • #364,008
  • Feb 17, 2014 1:16am Feb 17, 2014 1:16am
Quoting kimisiow83
Does anybody have a same view that this whole thing will probably have a correction all the way back to 1.667x area? I am starting to confuse with the candle pattern moves, and it seems too little for 1.675x retrace, it makes sense to me if the whole thing back to 1.667x before proceeding a bounce to higher.
It's too much risk before the numbers and the positioning doesn't support it nor do the fundamental threats. I suggest taking the 50 and go home. Things may develop further such that it could come off but at this time it's just too premature... we had a quick 50 pip bounce off a move that just happened hours ago... be thankful and take it.. I say this especially to the shorts that have been and continue to be out of the money... you don't want to waste time agonizing on H4, trust me
  • #364,009
  • Feb 17, 2014 1:17am Feb 17, 2014 1:17am
Quoting Baggi
I drew the trend line about 8 hours ago, give or take. Look how it bounced right off the trend line. {image}
...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: areyouawizard.png Size: 531 KB
  • #364,010
  • Feb 17, 2014 1:18am Feb 17, 2014 1:18am
If history really matters GBPUSD must reverse at least by 100-150 pips from what is now,

Yes there is good reasong GU to go to 1.7 but not right now, there must be reverse back what do u think, on daily charts I cannot see historically GU did bigger move than that in such short period of time.
kiss the trend
  • #364,011
  • Feb 17, 2014 1:21am Feb 17, 2014 1:21am
Quoting fx-trader777
If history really matters GBPUSD must reverse at least by 100-150 pips from what is now, Yes there is good reasong GU to go to 1.7 but not right now, there must be reverse back what do u think, on daily charts I cannot see historically GU did bigger move than that in such short period of time.
We are making history every day. Stop looking at the historics and think about the market as a bourse with many different humans and participants with many different goals and maybe you'll find the way. Or let me put it this way, use the historics as a guide, but I'm sick of hearing this the last time we rallied for X number of days in a row was Y number of years ago. It has absolutely no impact on the markets. The markets are driven by supply and demand.

If anything, the more people keep saying we've never done this before ever in history the more likely we will make new history this time around. So cut it out.
  • #364,012
  • Feb 17, 2014 1:22am Feb 17, 2014 1:22am
Quoting zaghloul
Still though, a 20 pip dive in 2 minutes doesn't make sense. Feels like the Turkish Lira, lol.

Yeah, my guess is there are a lot of bulls just waiting to buy on the dips. It'll take a lot to push down through all those bulls.
  • #364,013
  • Feb 17, 2014 1:22am Feb 17, 2014 1:22am
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} It's too much risk before the numbers and the positioning doesn't support it nor do the fundamental threats. I suggest taking the 50 and go home. Things may develop further such that it could come off but at this time it's just too premature... we had a quick 50 pip bounce off a move that just happened hours ago... be thankful and take it.. I say this especially to the shorts that have been and continue to be out of the money
Yes, I have a lot of BUY position started entry around 3 weeks ago. If the whole thing pullback around 1.667x area, it makes sense for the candle pattern. 80 more pips cost a lot for my BUY position. And I SELL for this 50 pips doesn't enough for the 25% of my LONG position. I need to forget about adding more BUY here, and the whole candle pattern tell me it was too little for a pullback to 1.675x actually. I am start to confuse with the candle pattern now.

I am not the SMARTEST person in the world, I am the PERSISTENT one.
  • #364,014
  • Feb 17, 2014 1:24am Feb 17, 2014 1:24am
Quoting kimisiow83
{quote} Yes, I have a lot of BUY position started entry around 3 weeks ago. If the whole thing pullback around 1.667x area, it makes sense for the candle pattern. 80 more pips cost a lot for my BUY position. And I SELL for this 50 pips doesn't enough for the 25% of my LONG position. I need to forget about adding more BUY here, and the whole candle pattern tell me it was too little for a pullback to 1.675x actually. I am start to confuse with the candle pattern now.
I have no idea man. You're overthinking it. For me I take my 50 pips on H1 as a success. H4 is not worth the torture and there's too much P&L fluctuation for my trading style.
  • #364,015
  • Feb 17, 2014 1:25am Feb 17, 2014 1:25am
Quoting fx-trader777
If history really matters GBPUSD must reverse at least by 100-150 pips from what is now, Yes there is good reasong GU to go to 1.7 but not right now, there must be reverse back what do u think, on daily charts I cannot see historically GU did bigger move than that in such short period of time.
Sorry, I don't know a lot about history but thank you very much for your information. Indeed, my read on candle pattern must at least to pullback for 100-150 pips, if it wants to proceed and to build HH at 1.678x and so on. It was way too much above now, that's make me confusing on the pattern.

Regards
I am not the SMARTEST person in the world, I am the PERSISTENT one.
  • #364,016
  • Feb 17, 2014 1:30am Feb 17, 2014 1:30am
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} I have no idea man. You're overthinking it. For me I take my 50 pips on H1 as a success. H4 is not worth the torture and there's too much P&L fluctuation for my trading style.
Yes, every move cost me pips. I am trying to see anyone having the same view. I can't add more buy here, and it suits everything to me if a pullback of 150 pips. Wave is 1H on correction, 4H on retrace, DAILY is ok to have one bearish candle since already 8 days consecutive move. Everything makes more sense if this pullback way back to 120-150pips.

Probably I will not close the SELL 1st, and I will add more SELL if it go back a bit since it already touches 1.675x area and this will perfect for 1H chart.

Regards.
I am not the SMARTEST person in the world, I am the PERSISTENT one.
  • #364,017
  • Feb 17, 2014 1:31am Feb 17, 2014 1:31am
Quoting kimisiow83
{quote} Yes, every move cost me pips. I am trying to see anyone having the same view. I can't add more buy here, and it suits everything to me if a pullback of 150 pips. Wave is 1H on correction, 4H on retrace, DAILY is ok to have one bearish candle since already 8 days consecutive move. Everything makes more sense if this pullback way back to 120-150pips. Probably I will not close the SELL 1st, and I will add more SELL if it go back a bit since it already touches 1.675x area and this will perfect for 1H chart. Regards.
Here's what I don't understand ... If you had H4 longs why didn't you just cut them all at 1.681x-1.682x??
Then you take a break and come back much later after the chart clears up instead of agonizing about this partial take profit when should I re-buy, etc.
I only had an H1 short from 1.6820 so for me I have an easy decision to take the 50, but looks like you made it hard on yourself by not taking FULL profit on the stops and then reevaluating
  • #364,018
  • Feb 17, 2014 1:41am Feb 17, 2014 1:41am
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} Here's what I don't understand ... If you had H4 longs why didn't you just cut them all at 1.681x-1.682x?? Then you take a break and come back much later after the chart clears up instead of agonizing about this partial take profit when should I re-buy, etc. I only had an H1 short from 1.6820 so for me I have an easy decision to take the 50, but looks like you made it hard on yourself by not taking FULL profit on the stops and then reevaluating
Nope, I trade base on WEEKLY, and I looked ENTRY on 1H and 4H momentum. 1.681x is not my actual target based on WEEKLY, and it is far more above from current price. I always add more on 1H and 4H when the whole setup is correct, and I only look for pullback opportunity on 1H and 4H, so I can make my counter trade profit and adding more position after pullback. I like to keep profit position running if candle pattern is good and I will only start to closed if it is near to my expected profit.

Regards
I am not the SMARTEST person in the world, I am the PERSISTENT one.
  • #364,019
  • Feb 17, 2014 1:42am Feb 17, 2014 1:42am
Quoting kimisiow83
{quote} Nope, I trade base on WEEKLY, and I looked ENTRY on 1H and 4H momentum. 1.681x is not my actual target based on WEEKLY, and it is far more above from current price. I always add more on 1H and 4H when the whole setup is correct, and I only look for pullback opportunity on 1H and 4H, so I can make my counter trade profit and adding more position after pullback. I like to keep profit position running if candle pattern is good and I will only start to closed if it is near to my expected profit. Regards
OK understood, you're on a much longer TF than me and what I'm experienced with. Good luck
  • #364,020
  • Feb 17, 2014 1:43am Feb 17, 2014 1:43am
UJ should give us some hints on where GU is heading into...anyone here seeing the same as me?
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