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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #363,841
  • Feb 16, 2014 3:04pm Feb 16, 2014 3:04pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} How will you feel when the market opens and this pair rises to 1,72?
I will never trade Fx anymore if this pair rises to 1.72 and it happen on this week. Although I am in BUY position, I will quit trading immediately.
I am not the SMARTEST person in the world, I am the PERSISTENT one.
  • #363,842
  • Feb 16, 2014 3:15pm Feb 16, 2014 3:15pm
I wouldn't get crazy and go short, but we might see a small drop this week....MIGHT. Maybe to around 1.6615 area, I'm thinking. Probably be good for a little breather here before resuming upwards. Definitely not good enough reason to go short though, imo.
  • #363,843
  • Feb 16, 2014 3:18pm Feb 16, 2014 3:18pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Both probabilities exist (Its trading of course they do) The symmetrical broadening top is a bullish continuation pattern. The pattern is formed by two symmetrical horizontal lines that are divergent. So it is a inverted symmetrical triangle or an open triangle. The oscillations between the two bands of the triangle are therefore becoming more and more sizable. Each line must be touched at least twice for validation. The symmetrical broadening top shows the growing nervousness of investors but also their indecisiveness. If the pattern is...
Nice job!
Anything is math!
  • #363,844
  • Feb 16, 2014 3:19pm Feb 16, 2014 3:19pm
Quoting yosi408
I know that one day this week will be the gbpusd down 300 - 200 pips - the question how much will go up before it starts - I'm afraid to delete the account before it happens
I read some of your posts in the last few pages.You should stop trying to counter trend trade.That said you might get lucky today or tomorrow since we are going to hit a pretty solid resistance level in the GU and GJ. If it blows through this level I would just close it down now and use stops in the future so you don't find yourself in a huge draw down position.
  • #363,845
  • Feb 16, 2014 3:23pm Feb 16, 2014 3:23pm
Quoting Zappa
I wouldn't get crazy and go short, but we might see a small drop this week....MIGHT. Maybe to around 1.6615 area, I'm thinking. Probably be good for a little breather here before resuming upwards. Definitely not good enough reason to go short though, imo.
I agree we might see a small candle on this week close, but I believe it might still heading above. A Bullish Morning Doji Star candle pattern has appear on weekly chart, so I don't have the courage to take on SELL.
I am not the SMARTEST person in the world, I am the PERSISTENT one.
  • #363,846
  • Feb 16, 2014 3:24pm Feb 16, 2014 3:24pm
Here's my advice. Sell if GU becomes overbought again according to Davit's favorite signal that he blew up on (20BB 2-3 dev lol) on H4 or maybe H1 to try for a possible gap fill of any pre-open gap. If you still have any margin left, that is But Friday's close will likely see defense pre-economic data.
  • #363,847
  • Feb 16, 2014 3:27pm Feb 16, 2014 3:27pm
The problem where to put the Stop Loss?

In 99% of the time after that it breaks up it returns down 50% + - and because of that all the time I put bigger deals I go out with a plus 1-2 pips of all transactions together
  • #363,848
  • Feb 16, 2014 3:30pm Feb 16, 2014 3:30pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
Here's my advice. Sell if GU becomes overbought again according to Davit's favorite signal that he blew up on (20BB 2-3 dev lol) on H4 or maybe H1 to try for a possible gap fill of any pre-open gap. If you still have any margin left, that is But Friday's close will likely see defense pre-economic data.
My gosh, he haven't blown his account? 3 weeks ago, he is laughing me on BUY for the CABLE and EU, and say I will blown my account soon. I am already more than +300 pips on the cable, +120 on EUR/USD, still yelling on SELL?????
I am not the SMARTEST person in the world, I am the PERSISTENT one.
  • #363,849
  • Feb 16, 2014 3:35pm Feb 16, 2014 3:35pm
Quoting yosi408
The problem where to put the Stop Loss? In 99% of the time after that it breaks up it returns down 50% + - and because of that all the time I put bigger deals I go out with a plus 1-2 pips of all transactions together
The market makers aren't in the business of accumulating infinite position one way. In fact they would prefer to have as little risk as possible. They only accumulate when people trade with them. At these levels shorters are already somewhat running out of ammo (and most longs have taken profit) so the MMs won't really be getting longer. As they monetize some of their position from forced liquidations and as new longs potentially enter the market for a 1.70xx target we should stabilize.
This is my logical guess. Let's see what happens.
Count me among the surprised ones if we get to at most 1.6850 and fail to see at least a 50pip retracement before 1.69. I will be starting to sell at 1.680x - 1.682x (assuming EU around 1.37 and EG around 0.8150) if we get there without any pullback looking to target around Friday's close.
It's the reality that even the most adamant shorters are running out of ammo to continue averaging down and so the move must stall eventually with partial liquidations.
  • #363,850
  • Feb 16, 2014 3:46pm Feb 16, 2014 3:46pm
I think 1.68xxx is going to be a historically contentious spot. It's not going to just walk right through this level. Currently I'm flat on GBP and looking to get into a position. 1.68xxx could bust some folks and others will have their exit stops there. But I also expect many traders have their TP's there. So I would expect to see a good deal of sideways action for the beginning of this week. I'm looking at the 4h for this forecast of mine so that 'sideways' can be a ~100 pip range under these expectations.

1.68000 to 1.68500 is where I expect that resistance battle to occur up, while the 200 EMA creeps in to apply pressure of support. Basically I'm eager to grab a piece of the resulting move either way since it should be sizeable. Generally I feel that we will move down a few hundred pips before turning around and making another strong move up to blow through this level.

Another reason I feel that the GU will drop, and this is going to be a little... creative . In the Wall street journal (I think Friday) there was an article about warren buffet moving money into the GBP. And I swear every time I read some currency story in that paper if it seems like price should move one way, it immediately makes a sizeable move the opposite way.
  • #363,851
  • Feb 16, 2014 3:48pm Feb 16, 2014 3:48pm
Quoting vladrath
I think 1.68xxx is going to be a historically contentious spot. It's not going to just walk right through this level. Currently I'm flat on GBP and looking to get into a position. 1.68xxx could bust some folks and others will have their exit stops there. But I also expect many traders have their TP's there. So I would expect to see a good deal of sideways action for the beginning of this week. I'm looking at the 4h for this forecast of mine so that 'sideways' can be a ~100 pip range under these expectations. 1.68000 to 1.68500 is where I expect...
Remember Lord Rothschild's 130mm pound bet in EG against the EUR? That trade completely blew up on him. I wonder if he's still holding it. I believe he is *still* out of the money unless he's stopped out already months ago. Worst trade ever (for a non-rogue trader), selling at 80xx right before the move to 8750
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...-the-euro.html
  • #363,852
  • Feb 16, 2014 3:51pm Feb 16, 2014 3:51pm
1.6770 now ..i read one of the chart analysts in one recent post, telling us the next move would be down..according to the chart.Not so.
  • #363,853
  • Feb 16, 2014 3:55pm Feb 16, 2014 3:55pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} Remember Lord Rothschild's 130mm pound bet in EG against the EUR? That trade completely blew up on him. I wonder if he's still holding it. I believe he is *still* out of the money unless he's stopped out already months ago. Worst trade ever (for a non-rogue trader), selling at 80xx right before the move to 8750 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...-the-euro.html
Is there any hard evidence that the man was actually in that trade?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #363,854
  • Feb 16, 2014 3:58pm Feb 16, 2014 3:58pm
Quoting vladrath
I think 1.68xxx is going to be a historically contentious spot. It's not going to just walk right through this level. Currently I'm flat on GBP and looking to get into a position. 1.68xxx could bust some folks and others will have their exit stops there. But I also expect many traders have their TP's there. So I would expect to see a good deal of sideways action for the beginning of this week. I'm looking at the 4h for this forecast of mine so that 'sideways' can be a ~100 pip range under these expectations. 1.68000 to 1.68500 is where I expect...
That's not being creative, that's simply following an obvious and regular pattern of events.
Like the article Soros was heavily short the pound and adding in on rallies.
GU price was about 1.5 or so at the time.
It's all in the timing you see, once the move is exhausted lol...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #363,855
  • Feb 16, 2014 4:00pm Feb 16, 2014 4:00pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Is there any hard evidence that the man was actually in that trade?
Well I don't know. He didn't do the trade with the bank I was working for at the time. I assume the Telegraph is a reputable news source. I also assume they are a Barclays client. But after the article came out, EURGBP never looked back to the downside. But we're talking 2012 stuff here... let's get back to reality
  • #363,856
  • Feb 16, 2014 4:06pm Feb 16, 2014 4:06pm
and the market is open. lets see how this one is going to go
  • #363,857
  • Feb 16, 2014 4:09pm Feb 16, 2014 4:09pm
Quoting redfirm
and the market is open. lets see how this one is going to go
Not all brokers online until Tokyo open and not all brokers force liquidate until Wellington noon. I don't expect too much fireworks here
GJ is also still sitting at resistance at 170.50 so for a higher GU we need GJ resistance to break or else UJ support to break with GJ holding.
  • #363,858
  • Feb 16, 2014 4:10pm Feb 16, 2014 4:10pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...dollar-trouble
  • #363,859
  • Feb 16, 2014 4:11pm Feb 16, 2014 4:11pm
Up Up and AWAY!
  • #363,860
  • Feb 16, 2014 4:12pm Feb 16, 2014 4:12pm
I leave everything open - I hope that God will be with me and it fell another 20 pips
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